The Financial Review has the results of a large-sample poll from RedBridge Group, the second pollster to take the field post-election after Roy Morgan. The results are not far off Roy Morgan’s: Labor on 37%, compared with 34.6% at the election; the Coalition on 31%, compared with 31.8%; and the Greens on 11%, compared with 12.2%. Labor is credited with a 55.5-44.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8 – lower than I might have expected based on preference flows from the recent election, but perhaps explicable by One Nation accounting for a larger share of “others”. Breakdowns are more balanced than you might expect with regard to gender, but results by age tell a familiar story of the Coalition vote descending from 44% among the 65+ cohort to 19% among 18-to-34, the Greens rising from 2% to 24%, and Labor fairly consistent across the board. The poll was conducted “late June” from a sample of 4036.
Another item of federally relating polling emerges from a report by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald on debate within the Liberal Party over whether to challenge independent Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote win in Bradfield in court. Local branch presidents are calling on the party to put up the money, but others consider this “a risk financially and politically”. The report cites polling conducted in mid-June for Climate 200 which suggests Boele would likely win a by-election resulting from a legal challenge, with her primary vote up from 27.0% at the election to 33.2%, with Gisele Kapterian’s 37.3% comparing with an election result of 38.0%.
Entropy:
It’s all performative bullshit and always was a great lie. Is Trump really saying that a tinpot country like El Salvador wouldn’t cave if the President of the United States didn’t demand its own people were returned or moved somewhere else?
Just ridiculous.
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 7:52 pm
The Trump administration’s top diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, was overseeing a deal to free several Americans and dozens of political prisoners held in Venezuela in exchange for sending home about 250 Venezuelan migrants the United States had deported to El Salvador.
But the deal never happened.
Part of the reason: President Trump’s envoy to Venezuela was working on his own deal, one with terms that Venezuela deemed more attractive. In exchange for American prisoners, he was offering to allow Chevron to continue its oil operations in Venezuela, a vital source of revenue for its authoritarian government.
The discussions, which included the release of about 80 Venezuelan political prisoners, and the two different deals were described by two U.S. officials and two other people who are familiar with the talks and sought anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue.
The State Department never sealed the deal. The top U.S. officials did not appear to be communicating with each other and ended up at cross purposes. The approximately 250 people expelled from the United States are still being held in a maximum-security prison in El Salvador. And it became clear that while Mr. Trump’s White House once said that it had no control over the detainees in El Salvador, it was willing to use them as bargaining chips.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/world/americas/trump-venezuelan-migrants-us-prisoner-swap.html
So which is it: does the Trump administration have the ability to get CECOT prisoners released or don’t they? It was always evident that because they are paying El Salvador that they had sway over the prisoners there and their fate despite Trump and Bukele claims to the contrary.
Now everyone knows it was all bullshit all along.
”
Recently UN asked El Salvador government, who is responsible for and in control of prisoners held in El Salvador gulag.
El Salvador government replied to UN that they are only doing the bidding of US government and US is in fully responsible for those prisoners and in control of them.
Migrants deported from U.S. to Salvadoran prison remain under U.S. control
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/08/g-s1-76491/migrants-salvadoran-prison-under-u-s-control
“The government of El Salvador has acknowledged to United Nations investigators that the Trump administration maintains control of the Venezuelan men who were deported from the U.S. to a notorious Salvadoran prison, contradicting public statements by officials in both countries.
About 250 suspected gang members arrive in El Salvador by plane in this photo from Sunday, including 238 members of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang and 23 members of the MS-13 gang, who were deported to El Salvador by the U.S.. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele confirmed they will be sent to the country’s mega-prison CECOT, the Terrorism Confinement Center.
The revelation was contained in court filings Monday by lawyers for more than 100 migrants who are seeking to challenge their deportations to El Salvador’s mega-prison known as the Terrorism Confinement Center, or CECOT.
The case is among several challenging President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.
“In this context, the jurisdiction and legal responsibility for these persons lie exclusively with the competent foreign authorities,” Salvadoran officials wrote in response to queries from the unit of the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. The U.N. group has been looking into the fate of the men who were sent to El Salvador from the United States in mid-March, even after a U.S. judge had ordered the planes that were carrying them to be turned around.
A reminder that we live in times where it is April 1 every day!
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/technology/grok-antisemitism-ai-x.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
In all seriousness though, Musk really should be weaning himself off X and getting a more rounded perception of people’s experiences.
I was just studying Trumps copper tariffs and it is potential effects. The US refines only about 16% of the Copper they use. Therefore, they are just going to be taxing all manufactured goods made in America that use copper….. Think anything that uses electric.
Anthony Albanese and federal Labor are enjoying a clear second term honeymoon, according to a new poll from DemosAU, showing a further lift in support for Labor from its dominant 2025 election showing. The poll of 1,199 enrolled Australian voters, carried out on July 5 and 6, showed a 1.4% lift in Labor’s primary since the May 3 poll to 36%.
Meanwhile, the Liberal National Coalition has suffered a 5.8% fall to 26%, after losing supporters to both Labor and One Nation. One Nation is up 2.6% to 9% while the Greens are up 1.8% to 14%. Meanwhile, 15% of voters selected any other candidate, a category that includes independents and other minor parties – equal to the election result. On a Two Party preferred basis, Labor now leads the Coalition 59% to 41%.
https://demosau.com/news/federal-labors-2nd-term-honeymoon/
B. S. Fairman @ #1503 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 8:22 pm
There has to be a breaking point in all this, surely? A point where Trump’s dickhead economics actually starts to damage them?
It can’t be the case that Trump just stands up and speak gibberish and everything’s just fine for the next 4 years?
Yes it will be.
I was reading something recently about how people who vote against their interests are usually the last to realise it, and even then don’t accept it. They just keep blindly voting for the same punishment in the hope that eventually they’ll be right.
I can totally see Republican Trump voters doing this.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 8:30 pm
B. S. Fairman @ #1503 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 8:22 pm
I was just studying Trumps copper tariffs and it is potential effects. The US refines only about 16% of the Copper they use. Therefore, they are just going to be taxing all manufactured goods made in America that use copper….. Think anything that uses electric.
There has to be a breaking point in all this, surely? A point where Trump’s dickhead economics actually starts to damage them?
It can’t be the case that Trump just stands up and speak gibberish and everything’s just fine for the next 4 years?
”
You know that Trump can’t do anything wrong from MAGA perspective and US people voted for Trump 2.0 with even greater numbers than in 2016 and 2020.
So it is what it is.
The only sensible thing for world to do is to move away from USA.
A LOT OF PEOPLE IN USA THINK THAT WHEN TRUMP IMPOSES THE TARIFF ON GOODS OF A PARTICULAR COUNTRY, THAT PARTICULAR COUNTRY WILL PAY FOR IT AND NOT US PEOPLE.
The reason?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2025/07/08/tsa-shoe-policy-airport-security/
Ah good, so it seems we’ve got another “Hitler won’t retreat from Stalingrad” situation.
Seems we really do have to go through this shit every century.
Brook displaces Root to be No. 1 Test batter, Gill moves up to No. 6
Wiaan Mulder, who got a mammoth 367* against Zimbabwe, gained in both batters’ and allrounders’ rankings
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/harry-brook-displaces-joe-root-as-no-1-test-batter-shubman-gill-moves-up-to-no-6-1494234
“England batter Harry Brook, who scored 158 in the first innings at Edgbaston, is now the top-ranked Test batter in the world as per the ICC rankings. Brook replaced his team-mate Joe Root at the top, and is now 18 points clear of Root, who has moved down to second. India Test captain Shubman Gill’s historic knocks of 269 and 161 in the second Test, which India won by 336 runs, helped him climb 15 places to move up to No. 6, with a career-best ratings points of 807. Between Brook, Root and Gill, there are Kane Williamson (third), Yashasvi Jaiswal (fourth) and Steven Smith (fifth) on the charts.
England wicketkeeper-batter Jamie Smith was also among the beneficiaries after the Edgbaston Test. His twin contributions of a career-best 184*, during which he rescued England from 84 for 5 in the first innings along with Brook, and 88 in the second innings helped him rise 16 spots to No. 10.”
Upnorth
I stopped watching State of origin because NSW are getting flogged as it stands.
For anyone chasing audio of Saturday’s Curtin Oration:
Curtin’s Cast Episode 20 – 9 July 2025 – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
This week’s Curtin’s Cast is a special edition featuring Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s 2025 Curtin Oration in Sydney on Saturday 5 July on the 80th anniversary of John Curtin’s passing and the PM’s expansive Q and A which followed with our centre’s Chair, Sam Almaliki.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/curtins-cast-episode-20-9-july-2025-prime-minister/id1797027321?i=1000716310289
Ugh, I forgot they were (co)hosting the 2026 World Cup. I was looking forward to that too. Another increasingly problematic host. I suppose sharing it with Canada and Mexico makes it more tolerable (although I wonder how Trump feels about having to share with them.)
The poll of 1,199 enrolled Australian voters, carried out on July 5 and 6, showed a 1.4% lift in Labor’s primary since the May 3 poll to 36%.
=================================================
The number of people polled on the low side for polls. Though interestingly polling companies tend to do bigger samples polls for their last poll before the election. Yet their last polls were probably less accurate in predicting the election result than the ones done the week before then. Suggesting herding in the last week may have been a bigger factor than the larger samples in result prediction accuracy. So bigger samples should of made them more accurate but herding appears to have made them less so.
Mind you, FIFA is as dirty as shit, so it’s not like it’s clean anywhere it’s held.
Also because of the spike in Copper prices, Copper is almost $18.5K AUD a tonne.
An Australian 5 cent coins weigh 2.83g (75% Copper and 25% Nickel). Time to start exporting our spare change again.
Also because of the spike in Copper prices, Copper is almost $18.5 AUD a tonne.
—————————————————————-
I’ll take 10 tonne off you at that price. I think you mean kg though.
Wat Tyler @ #1514 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 8:54 pm
I look forward to Trump launching a series of increasingly unhinged Truth Social attacks on FIFA as the whole thing goes off the rails.
Yes indeed. Left the K off. My bad.
B. S. Fairman @ #1517 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 8:56 pm
Fun fact, the 5, 10 and 20 have the same composition and face value to mass ratio, so the 10c weighs twice as much as the 5, the 20c four times as much.
Yes, I know that. I am thinking of hitting the bank tomorrow to take out my savings in small change and ship it off to China. I wonder if Upnorth has contacts in the metal trade there?
Trump hasn’t delivered ‘no taxes on tips’ promise—but Democrats should
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/8/2332247/-Trump-hasn-t-delivered-no-taxes-on-tips-promise-but-Democrats-should?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“No taxes on tips—period. That was the unambiguous promise. Trump repeated it endlessly. It was such a clean, compelling idea that Kamala Harris tried to co-opt it in her presidential run, drawing mockery from Trump and his allies.
But what was actually delivered? Something very different.
“Once the provision goes into effect, workers will be able to deduct $25,000 in tips annually from their taxable income,” NPR reported. “After that, tips will be federally taxed.”
That distinction matters. Workers will still be taxed on tips. The only change is that, come tax time, they’ll be able to deduct up to $25,000 in tips from their income—assuming they make less than $150,000 overall. For someone who qualifies for the full deduction and makes enough to land in the 22-24% tax bracket, the savings might land somewhere between $5,000 and $6,000.
That’s not nothing. But it’s a far cry from what was promised.
Here’s why the reality falls short:
The promise was no taxes on tips. Even under the best-case scenario, workers still pay taxes on their tips. Just … less.
The cap is low. So $25,000 in tips breaks down to roughly $2,000/month or $90 per workday. That might be generous in a rural diner, but in urban fine dining or nightlife hubs, it doesn’t go far. Even in Las Vegas—where Trump made the promise—the average server brings in $110 in daily tips. So even they won’t get the full benefit.
You have to itemize deductions. Only about 10% of all taxpayers itemize deductions, because the standard deduction is easier and more beneficial for the vast majority. The Wall Street Journal estimates that roughly one-third of tipped workers won’t make enough to benefit at all. Even those who could benefit may not realize it—or stick with the standard deduction out of habit or confusion.
It’s invisible. Republicans pulled a classic Democratic blunder—hiding benefits in the tax code. Trump promised something workers would feel in their paychecks. But those paychecks will still be docked for payroll, Social Security, Medicare, and state taxes. Nothing will look different. The sense of financial pressure won’t ease.
“It would be extra money,” Yolanda Garcia, a barista at Resorts World Las Vegas who makes around $100-150 a week in tips, told the WSJ. “It would help me buy more groceries, even a gallon of gas.”
Except it won’t—not right away. Not weekly. Not monthly. Because she’s still getting taxed the same. That benefit won’t show up until tax season—if she even knows how to claim it.
Wat Tyler @ #1514 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 8:54 pm
Yes, US is co-hosting. I’ve mused previously on how the border security arrangements will impact behaviour of athletes and touring fans into America.
I don’t see good things.
arraitch says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 8:53 pm
For anyone chasing audio of Saturday’s Curtin Oration:
Curtin’s Cast Episode 20 – 9 July 2025 – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
This week’s Curtin’s Cast is a special edition featuring Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s 2025 Curtin Oration in Sydney on Saturday 5 July on the 80th anniversary of John Curtin’s passing and the PM’s expansive Q and A which followed with our centre’s Chair, Sam Almaliki.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/curtins-cast-episode-20-9-july-2025-prime-minister/id1797027321?i=1000716310289
_______________________________________________________
Thanks, arraitch. The Q & A section might be interesting, even if it’s just to confirm the mediocrity of the press.
Emirates set to accept Bitcoin for flight bookings.
Am out for tea with MABWM in Bangkok. Anyone got the Origin score?
Roasted Field Rat and Sticky on the menu!
Aroi Mak.
NSW getting smashed,Upnorth.
Qld 20 NSW 0
B. S. Fairman maybe just stockpile them and wait for the premium to rise enough for them to be removed from circulation.
sonar says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 9:19 pm
NSW getting smashed,Upnorth.
Qld 20 NSW
中华人民共和国
Excellent news Cobber. I will order another Grilled Field Rat with Sticky Rice on the back of that.
Please don’t encourage Uonorth. He keeps ordering more rat!
… and condiments?
Stoogey Lurker says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 9:28 pm
… and condiments?
中华人民共和国
I’ve ordered the extra spicy condiments tonight!
We have christened the latest Rat “Billy Hughes”.
“ newy boy says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 5:53 pm
At the last election:
45% of voters wanted policies to the right of Labor. This is everyone who gave the Coalition candidate in their seat a higher preference than they gave to the Labor candidate. Who in their right mind would have done so, if they wanted Labor’s policies, or policies to the left of Labor’s? The Coalition was presenting a quite hard-right position in the Australian context.
Among the other 55%, who gave Labor a higher preference than the Coalition, about 35% voted directly for Labor, and so voted for Labor’s policies. That leaves 20% of the electorate who voted for policies to the left of Labor.”
____
Wrong.
Sure, I’m guessing that most of that 20% of the electorate that you refer to probably voted for ‘vibes’ that were more left wing than the LNP. Some of them undoubtably wanted a genuine left wing policy agenda – more left than Labor (ie. many Greens voters and various other rebadged socialists), but many others wanted something that felt progressive, but really wasn’t more left than Labor (ie. some of the teals, who market themselves as middle class progressives but hate workers rights) but I suspect that many voters who swung to Labor on preferences just couldn’t bear the shitfuckery that was the LNP, and especially its leadership team.
There were probably even more than just a few traditional Tories who preferenced Labor simply because they had no faith in the ability of Dutton and Co to govern (given the wasted decade that they were a large part of), especially given the LNP’s craven genuflection to President man baby and the threat to the economic order that has made them fabulously wealthy over the past 40 years or so.
Good, good. I didn’t like the abbreviation of the name: “Roasted Field Rat and Sticky.”
Grilled water/field rat with sticky rice and condiments sounds much better.
Stoogey Lurker says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 9:35 pm
Good, good. I didn’t like the abbreviation of the name: “Roasted Field Rat and Sticky.”
Grilled water/field rat with sticky rice and condiments sounds much better.
中华人民共和国
Deepest apologies. Was caught up with MABWM and the Football score.
I don’t know what he’s ordered but it’s damn good tucker. Cobber.
Trump really has become that crazy old man ranting in the corner.
Anyone got the full time score in the Origin? Must be nearly done.
Q 24 NSW 12 FT
Oakeshott Country says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 10:04 pm
Q 24 NSW 12 FT
中华人民共和国
Muchly appreciated OC. Good luck to your Panfers.
It’s all downhill from here – oh dear, where’s Mr 59% Albo now???
Just pre-programming PP when Albo hits something like 54/46…
“staff-weilding monkey hero”
That is Lord Hanuman from Hindu epic “Ramayan”
____________________________________
Didn’t half the cast from the Ramayan enter politics?
Yes they did and all for the far-right BJP…
Actor Arvind Trivedi who played Raavan won the Lok Sabha elections for Member of Parliament (MP) from Sabarkatha.
Actress Deepika Chikalia, who played Sita won the Lok Sabha elections for MP from Baroda constituency in 1991.
Dara Singh (Lord Hanuman in Ramayan) was a nominated member of Rajya Sabha and elected member of Jat Mahasabha.
Read more at: https://www.indiaforums.com/article/when-ramayan-and-mahabharat-became-political_90369
frednksays:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 9:53 pm
“Trump really has become that crazy old man ranting in the corner.”
“In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats, they’re eating- they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.”
Ven says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 8:49 pm
Upnorth
I stopped watching State of origin because NSW are getting flogged as it stands.
中华人民共和国
Sorry Ven. Just saw your post. Great Tea tonight with MABWM. He is a decent cobber but not a League man. I shall quiz him next time on the odious Daylight Saving.
Alpha Zerosays:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 10:25 pm
“staff-weilding monkey hero”
That is Lord Hanuman from Hindu epic “Ramayan”
____________________________________
Didn’t half the cast from the Ramayan enter politics?
Yes they did and all for the far-right BJP…
– – – – – – – – – – – –
Which one? Wikipedia has a category page with 61 entries for “films based on the Ramayana”. LOL
I know – you’re talking about the 1980s TV serialisation (which I’ve seen a bit of). The most expensive Indian movie ever comes out next year, based on … wait for it … the Ramayana. So that’ll be 62 pages, I guess.
Its a great story – I prefer it to Journey to the West, which was the other Monkey story under discussion. But I’m going to open myself to “old white guy” criticism, but I can’t say I love the Indian TV/movie treatment of their own wonderful stories – very OTT, actors chewing the scenery like nobodies business, but I guess that is just my own cultural narrowness. One of my favourite Ramayana-adjacent movies was the animated “Sita Sings the Blues”, which is widely acclaimed by OWGs like me, but RW Hindu Nationalists decry it as insulting and want it banned. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Apologies in advance – especially to Ven – if any of the above causes offence. Not intended to.
Took QLD @ $3.10 for a nice amount!
Thank you NSW TAB for the generous odds!
NSW @ $1.28 was always stupid in the first place, good to see a lot of NSW mugs would have lost on that one!
Go the mighty Queenslanders!!!
Been There says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 11:36 pm
Took QLD @ $3.10 for a nice amount!
Thank you NSW TAB for the generous odds!
NSW @ 1.28 was always stupid in the first place, good to see a lot of mugs would have lost on that one!
Go the mighty Queenslanders!!!
中华人民共和国
Bloody good on you cobber! Well done. Thats good coin.
They write us off every bloody year and well it’s always a sweet victory.
Used to love listening to the Channel 9 telecast when I lived in Oz. Was always full of cockroaches whinging and whining. Making excuses.
Best Origin Ref ever Barry “The Grasshopper” Gomersall. He ran for Labor in a few elections in Mirani.
Worst Ref. Tim Mander now a bloody LNP Minister. Used to call him “Gerry Mander” so one sided to NSW he was.
Hope you’re all good matey.
B. S. Fairman says:
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Yes, I know that. I am thinking of hitting the bank tomorrow to take out my savings in small change and ship it off to China. I wonder if Upnorth has contacts in the metal trade there?
中华人民共和国
Got a few contacts matey – but if we get all our metal together might be a good play on the London Metals Exchange. The Chinese prefer the raw product and do the refining there.
That NPC talk was a cracker alright SL. thanks.
“19B in savings” to Australians in energy costs because of the home battery scheme even if they don’t have a battery, because of the reduced draw from the grid. Epic. That’s productivity folks.