RedBridge Group: 55.5-44.5 to Labor (open thread)

The second pollster to take the field since the election confirms Labor’s dominance, plus an update on prospects for a legal challenge to the result in Bradfield.

The Financial Review has the results of a large-sample poll from RedBridge Group, the second pollster to take the field post-election after Roy Morgan. The results are not far off Roy Morgan’s: Labor on 37%, compared with 34.6% at the election; the Coalition on 31%, compared with 31.8%; and the Greens on 11%, compared with 12.2%. Labor is credited with a 55.5-44.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8 – lower than I might have expected based on preference flows from the recent election, but perhaps explicable by One Nation accounting for a larger share of “others”. Breakdowns are more balanced than you might expect with regard to gender, but results by age tell a familiar story of the Coalition vote descending from 44% among the 65+ cohort to 19% among 18-to-34, the Greens rising from 2% to 24%, and Labor fairly consistent across the board. The poll was conducted “late June” from a sample of 4036.

Another item of federally relating polling emerges from a report by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald on debate within the Liberal Party over whether to challenge independent Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote win in Bradfield in court. Local branch presidents are calling on the party to put up the money, but others consider this “a risk financially and politically”. The report cites polling conducted in mid-June for Climate 200 which suggests Boele would likely win a by-election resulting from a legal challenge, with her primary vote up from 27.0% at the election to 33.2%, with Gisele Kapterian’s 37.3% comparing with an election result of 38.0%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 thoughts on “RedBridge Group: 55.5-44.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. At the last election:

    45% of voters wanted policies to the right of Labor. This is everyone who gave the Coalition candidate in their seat a higher preference than they gave to the Labor candidate. Who in their right mind would have done so, if they wanted Labor’s policies, or policies to the left of Labor’s? The Coalition was presenting a quite hard-right position in the Australian context.

    Among the other 55%, who gave Labor a higher preference than the Coalition, about 35% voted directly for Labor, and so voted for Labor’s policies. That leaves 20% of the electorate who voted for policies to the left of Labor.

    So, calling Labor’s policies ‘the centre’, and ordering these blocs of voters from left-to-right, we get the following broad spectrum of the Australian electorate, as definitively expressed with real votes at the last election, two months ago:

    Left-Centre-Right
    20-35-45

    From this, I see a strong mandate for Labor to pursue its promised centrist approach to governing. I also see a case for some selective nudges to the right, to reflect the large bloc of voters who would prefer that. I also see a case for a lesser number of smaller nudges to the left on the odd occasion, to reflect the smaller bloc of voters who would prefer that (less than half the size of the bloc who want policies further to the right).

  2. Peg: The high ‘other’ vote caused a record 35 contests to have non-traditional finishes.

    35 contests out of 150, right? Of which 20+ were won by a major party? Along with the the 115 that were direct major party contests? I don’t think this says what you think it says. You seem to have mistakenly believed that those 35 seats in some way went to non major parties.

  3. @DPR of CBR says: Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 2:47 am
    From what I’ve read about the Cube Root Law, it’s meant to be applied to the lower house if Parliament is bicameral. Harkening back to my Canada example, the amount of House of Commons Ridings would be slightly under their current population’s cube root (although given that redistribution was done in 2022, their estimates must’ve been very close)

    So rather than divide the 157 seats between the House and the Senate, the House gets all of it. The problem now is accounting for the Nexus Clause and the fact that an immediate expansion of 100+ seats might be problematic going from some of the replies I got; it seems that an expansion of the House of Representatives to gain around 50 new seats per election would be ideal.

    My current solution for expanding the house (keeping these aforementioned problems in mind) is to:
    – Expand the Senate to have 24* Senators per Original State, which would give 144 State Senators
    – 144*2 = 288 House of Reps MPs which would be close to 307 (the cube root of Australia’s 2031 population medium projection from ABS) but relatively below it to compromise with those who might not like a huge expansion to Parliament. (Note that 288 is the target but not the definitive number of seats House of Reps. would expand by; my calculations show at least 296 seats max- I’ll go with this estimate for the remainder of the comment)
    – Have the expansion be implemented in installments. So rather than immediately dump all 146 seats in the house, have it be added over 2 or 3 elections:
    1. Implementation over 2 elections would mean 73 seats in HoR whilst adding 6 new State Senators per state in one election
    2. Implementation over 3 elections would be 49 seats (one of them will be 48 seats) in HoR whilst adding 4 new State Senators in one election.

    In terms of HoR only being able to fit 172, there will need to be an interim arrangement for HoR or have a team expand HoR capacity (during recesses) before new elections.

    *25 Senators per state will mean 150 State Senators and 308 HoR MPs, but I rejected this because it would mean simpler Senate half elections and a smaller expansion to Parliament

  4. “Planet-heating pollution tripled the death toll from the “quietly devastating” heatwave that seared Europe at the end of June, early analysis covering a dozen cities has found, as experts warned of a worsening health crisis that is being overlooked.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/09/europe-june-heatwave-study-climate-breakdown-tripled-death-toll

    Fortunately, record solar generation kept the power supply stable otherwise more people would have died.

    “Heatwaves will not go away – they will only get more severe in the future. Solutions that can help mitigate their impacts, such as battery storage, interconnection, demand flexibility and dynamic tariffs, should become a key part of grid planning and power market design. Luckily, there is no lack of sunshine during heatwaves. The biggest opportunity is to store solar electricity, to help power air conditioning well into the evening.”
    https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/heat-and-power-impacts-of-the-2025-heatwave-in-europe/

  5. Victoria’s draconian new anti-protest laws will have a chilling effect on free speech — and won’t keep anyone safe

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/07/09/victoria-anti-protest-laws-police-powers-jacinta-allan-miznon-east-melbourne-synagogue/

    “In response to the weekend’s attack on the East Melbourne Hebrew Congregation, Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has announced she will forge ahead with new anti-protest measures and more police powers.

    In doing so, she is following what has become the new normal for state governments across the country: using acts of racism and violence as a pretext to clamp down on unrelated democratic rights.
    :::
    So what is actually being proposed in response? The Allan government is suggesting the creation of a new criminal offence for wearing a face covering at peaceful protests, banning “dangerous attachment devices” (e.g. a chain, a bike lock) — which have long been used in non-violent civil disobedience — and criminalising peaceful protests around places of religious worship.
    :::
    Unless you’re a mining company spending hundreds of millions buying politicians’ favour or can wine and dine decision-makers, peaceful protest is one of the main ways for people to hold governments and corporations to account. Protests for the eight-hour workday, women’s rights, First Nations rights and the anti-war movement have led to significant improvements in all of our lives.
    :::
    Adding new repressive police powers against peaceful protesters only serves to increase the risk of escalating violence at already heightened public demonstrations. People will not stop taking to the streets on issues they care about, even if the state tries to stifle their voices. Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard in response to protests in LA shows us how deploying more state force at protests increases rather than decreases the risk of violence.
    :::
    Taken together, this suite of laws, which would provide police with extraordinary powers against people peacefully raising their voices against injustice, would have a chilling effect, deterring marginalised groups from attending protests and exercising their rights to freedom of expression, which the Victorian government has sought to protect.
    :::
    Encouraging people to express their political views peacefully is the antidote to non-peaceful forms of protest and is something that all governments should be encouraging and facilitating. At times like this, we should be able to trust our politicians not to fuel division and panic through misguided and knee-jerk responses, but to take measures to address the root causes of racism and hatred.”

  6. Entropy @ #1440 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 5:20 pm

    “The implication being murder/suicide by pilot ”

    Seems to be likely, particularly when India tried to block UN investigators from observing in late June. They soon realised it would come out anyway and did allow the UN investigator to observe in the end.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/india-denies-entry-un-aviation-investigator-air-india-crash-probe-say-sources-2025-06-26/

    Aye Entropy.

    Very sad indeed, if confirmed.

  7. Pi

    Why do you assume you know what is going through my mind?

    I understand putting words in my mouth and asserting thoughts I may or may not have is just a classic technique to undermine and misrepresent. It reeks of arrogance and condescension on your part. Mind you, you are not the only one who engages in such tactics. Also, it does not concern me that you and others think I am “stupid”. Good luck to you and have a good evening.

  8. “Very sad indeed, if confirmed.”

    It is sad no matter how it occurred. If it was a deliberate act by someone, the fact that someone would do that is atrocious.

  9. On the Air India crash, obviously it was very sad to start with and tragic if a deliberate action caused it.

    At the same time, I am not surprised. There has been an odd delay announcing results of downloading the flight recorders. Both were reported recovered intact. Downloading can be done in a single day. Yet we have heard nothing for two weeks. I suspect they contained uncomfortable information.

  10. Entropy @ #1457 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 6:09 pm

    “Very sad indeed, if confirmed.”

    It is sad no matter how it occurred. If it was a deliberate act by someone, the fact that someone would do that is atrocious.

    Oh geez, I haven’t even thought of that as a possibility. It should be impossible with both pilots in the cockpit, but with less than a minute between takeoff and the crash, that would probably be the ideal window for such a monstrous event to happen, not enough time for the co-pilot to intervene.


  11. Wat Tylersays:
    Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 3:47 pm
    newy boy @ #1424 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 3:15 pm

    sprocket_, Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 3:31 pm:

    LNP primary is 26. Perhaps an orderly windup is in order.

    Sub ___ is baked in.

    Is it time for an emergency Colin?

    🙂

  12. It seems there is audio footage of Donald Trump threatening to bomb Moscow and Beijing during a heated call with Putin and Xi.
    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-xi-putin-audio-bomb-moscow-beijing-china-russia-2096470

    Between that and today’s announcement of more threatened Trump tariffs on Australian copper (minor) and pharmaceutical ($2B) exports, USA is no longer a reliable ally in economics or security. I have thought AUKUS was an unwise idea for three years. I would say now it is politically suicidal to continue.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-09/rba-trump-tariffs-profound-impact-australia-new-thinking-needed/105510596

    My turn to make dinner so adieu.

  13. Peg, “Why do you assume you know what is going through my mind? ”

    Because I’m trying to figure out what you’re saying, and why you’re trying to say it? You realize that’s the way it works, right? “communication” I think is what they call it. That response of yours kind of gives me the impression you’re not really interested in communicating at all, doesn’t it? When you say you’re talking ‘at’ somone, it doesn’t have the same connotation as talking ‘with’ someone, innit.

  14. Pi

    Sure, sure. Why would I want to engage with someone who posts:

    ” Peg, you say the same dumb shite, you get the same response. You need to update your script. If you want to get different responses, stop saying the same dumb shite all of the time. It’s boring.”

    Sure, sure. That will encourage good faith discussion.

    Last response to you.

  15. Your real problem Peg is that you like spamming everyone in this blog constantly, but when you’re queried about even a fraction of the things you spam, you come unstuck. Perhaps if you spammed less, and communicated more, it wouldn’t be so confronting?

    Try reading the words.


  16. Stoogey Lurkersays:
    Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 5:25 pm
    It’s a strange world we live in. 59-41 is pretty good, don’t get me wrong; but 41% of electorate are still pooperesque – WTF. Also, there’s this:

    “As with its rich reserves of coal, Shanxi has abundant cultural resources – it just hasn’t quite figured out how to use them. Nowhere is this more apparent than Linfen, a small town of just 90,000 people and a few ancient temples. During last year’s National Day holiday, its population briefly doubled when 91,000 tourists flocked to the town, a year-on-year tourism increase of 335%, according to local authorities.

    The sudden rush of tourists to two previously little known temples deep in China’s coallands is thanks in part to the viral popularity of a Chinese video game, Black Myth: Wukong, which was released last year. Based on classic Chinese mythology, the game includes intricate reconstructions of temples including Xiaoxitian and Guangsheng in Linfen. Both sites have since rapidly plastered themselves with Black Myth merchandise. Guangsheng erected a 7ft statue of the Destined One, the game’s staff-wielding monkey hero, at the entrance to the prayer halls.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/09/chinas-coal-heartland-fighting-for-a-greener-future

    SL
    “staff-weilding monkey hero”
    That is Lord Hanuman from Hindu epic “Ramayan”

  17. Pi

    This really is my last response.

    Thank you for singling me out for “spamming”. How very selective and biased of you.

    I don’t become “unstuck”. I have posted on a number of topics today. Did you respond to the substance of any of them? – No, iirc.

    But your character assessment is most appreciated and I hope you feel better about expressing it.


  18. Pegasussays:
    Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 5:31 pm
    GA

    “Ed Husic has described the Israeli defense minister’s plans to force Palestinians in Gaza into a camp on the ruins of Rafah as a “a new cell block within

    Gaza’s

    open air prison”.

    Speaking with the ABC a shirt time ago, the Labor MP said this week had particular significance for violations of international law.

    “Friday will mark 30 years since the horrific events of Srebrenica in Bosnia. In just a few days, 8,000 men and boys were killed, an episode that was later … declared an act of genocide … The world said we would learn from that,” he said.

    Fast forward, he said, and constructs being put forward could see “the potential displacement of Palestinians”

    Maybe it is not genocide because it is on brown people.

    My prediction why this is done: to build grotesque Trump-Israel riviera. ( You heard it first)

  19. Bean and TPOF

    @TPOF
    “I think Katter’s comment is directed to people whose research involves matching what they hear to their prejudices and simplistic notions about other nations and peoples.

    He is right, though, to the extent that the Chinese are not doing their renewables thing to save the world from climate change; they are doing it because it makes extraordinarily sound economic and geopolitical sense. It’s a pity that narrow interests and a desperate desire for power in Australia obfuscate that quite obvious fact.

    I always felt that the strength of the teals in regard to climate change was not because their Liberal converts were unhappy that we kept producing fossil fuels. Rather, it was because their batshit crazy anti-renewables crusade was getting in the way of them making money when it is clear that the future of fossil fuels is limited.”

    You are spot on

    +1 from me. We are now getting to the stage where renewables are significantly cheaper than other forms of generation. And Australia is in an amazing position to capitalise on these things.

    Business is voting with its money.

    There was an interesting article from Sean Kelly, one of my favourite commentators, some weeks ago, where he felt disappointed that, in the end, support for acting on climate change, came from the hip pocket, not the altruistic dimension. I cannot find this article now, but will keep searching.

    For me, after seeing so many opinion polls that said climate change was important to people, only to see the electorate vote in climate change deniers like Tony Abbott, I am just so relieved that we have finally got to the stage where voting for action on climate (as in massively increasing investment into renewables) is aligned with the hip pocket nerve.

    But, I do understand Sean Kelly, and his disappointment that, at the end of the day, the moral dimension to combating climate change was just not important enough to most voters to override their fear of power bills they felt they could not afford.

  20. Glancing at Sky After Dark, given that roughly 80% of their content is now centred on Trump and MAGA, it seems they really have nothing on Australian Labor at the moment, and the only thing they’re attacking Albo on is why he isn’t kissing Trump’s arse enough or why he’s enacting policies that the US Republicans oppose.

    This is a good thing for Labor. Most Australians utterly hate Trump and what he stands for, yet they continue their crusade in trying to turn the Coalition into the US Republicans. Long may it continue so they can make 100+ seats in 2028 a reality.

  21. Douglas and Milko, Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 6:43 pm:

    … the moral dimension to combating climate change was just not important enough to most voters to override their fear of power bills they felt they could not afford.

    For me, an additional dimension to that particular tragedy was the decade of delay in curbing CO2 emissions which we suffered, because of the three terms of ATM Coalition governments, brought upon us by that electoral fear.

  22. This is a nifty little report (4-pages with lots of graphics):

    “In 2024, renewable power capacity expansion increased compared to 2023 and remained well above the long term trend. As in previous years, most of this expansion occurred in China and, to a lesser extent, the United States. However, most other countries also increased their expansion of renewable capacity in 2024 compared to 2023.

    The share of renewables in total capacity expansion has increased significantly in 2024 and reached 92.5%, compared to 85.8% in 2023. The renewable share of total installed power capacity also rose by more than three percentage points from 43.1% in 2023 to 46.4% in 2024.”

    https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2025/Mar/IRENA_DAT_RE_Capacity_Highlights_2025.pdf

  23. Kirsdarke, SAD is effectively what marketing types call ‘earned media’ for Labor. Except low value media, given their audience numbers.

  24. newy boy @ #1475 Wednesday, July 9th, 2025 – 6:52 pm

    Kirsdarke, SAD is effectively what marketing types call ‘earned media’ for Labor. Except low value media, given their audience numbers.

    True, but most rank-and-file Liberal Party members watch it religiously and they show up to branch meetings demanding things happen that what SAD hosts tell them should happen, which is to be more like Trump.

    What else can the Parliamentary Liberal Party do than go by their wishes? Even if it loses them votes from the rest of the electorate that aren’t weird freaks that have their brains melted?


  25. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 6:19 pm
    It seems there is audio footage of Donald Trump threatening to bomb Moscow and Beijing during a heated call with Putin and Xi.
    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-xi-putin-audio-bomb-moscow-beijing-china-russia-2096470

    Between that and today’s announcement of more threatened Trump tariffs on Australian copper (minor) and pharmaceutical ($2B) exports, USA is no longer a reliable ally in economics or security. I have thought AUKUS was an unwise idea for three years. I would say now it is politically suicidal to continue.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-09/rba-trump-tariffs-profound-impact-australia-new-thinking-needed/105510596

    Trump seems to forget that Russia and China have inter-continental missiles

  26. Confessionssays:
    Tuesday, July 8, 2025 at 8:59 pm
    You mean 1,495 incidents in 2024 (not 2014).

    Oh, you can read? We’re unused to Coalition neanderthal numpties being able to see beyond the headline and into the detail.

    Well done. Elephant stamp for you.
    ============================
    Yes I can read Confessions, but I generally don’t read your posts.
    Except of course when you make a mistake.
    Thanks for the elephant stamp.

  27. Kirsdarke, SAD is effectively what marketing types call ‘earned media’ for Labor. Except low value media, given their audience numbers.
    ———————————————————-

    I always thought SAD was psychological syndrome: Seasonal Affective Disorder.

    Alternatively a syndrome that explained the Nazi’s desire to drive around in big tanks invading other countries: Small Aryan Dick syndrome.

  28. Upto 200% tariffs o Australian products Aluminium and other products. Ummmm…
    And we went to war in coalition with USA in all US wars after WW2 putting our soldiers at harms length (even though Australia doesn’t have to do that because it has nothing to do with threat to Autralian security) and yet this.

  29. Ven

    Maybe it is not genocide because it is on brown people.

    My prediction why this is done: to build grotesque Trump-Israel riviera. ( You heard it first)

    Oh, now, it is genocide alright.

    A year ago I felt the “war crimes” was a better description, because it was more sure of getting a successful prosecution against Israel.

    But, now, yes genocide.

    However, I can see no positive benefit about us discussing this endlessly on PB. But I can see many negatives for this blog.

    For people who are really interested in promoting peace, find yourself a good website that will tell you which products to boycott because they are Israeli based. I used to limit it to goods from the occupied territories, a decade ago, but I now think that all Israeli products should be boycotted.

    We need a peoples movement, like we had with the people against Apartheid South Africa, right around the world. It took some time – but it was eventually regime changing.

    For people railing at their current governments for not doing enough, yeah, you may have a point, but I think more than a number of you are just using this conflict to advance your own domestic political aims.

  30. Pegasus posted

    In doing so, she is following what has become the new normal for state governments across the country: using acts of racism and violence as a pretext to clamp down on unrelated democratic rights.

    This seems to imply that there are some acts of racism and violence that people have a democratic right to commit. Very strange.

  31. I doubt that we will get to hear Chump threatening to bomb Moscow and Beijing. They would have laughed at him. The recording will be like the Epstein files, hidden from view to protect Chump.

  32. All this talk to Wukong and his journey to the West to seek the sacred sutras in India.

    Tomorrow is Asalha Puja. It celebrates Buddhas first sermon and is an important holiday in Thailand (no grog allowed to be sold).

    Friday is also an important day in Thailand being the beginning of Vassa or the Buddhist Lent. Monks are forbidden to leave their temples during this time to beg for food. Devotees instead take food directly to the temple.

    Vassa has been observed for over 2,500 years, originating from the Buddha’s concern for the well-being of monks during the rainy season.

    So Sathu (Amen) to fellow Bludgers and remember the suffering of all creatures be they human or animal.

  33. Ven

    “staff-weilding monkey hero”
    That is Lord Hanuman from Hindu epic “Ramayan”

    Thanks!! I loved the series about this played in the 1980s on the ABC.

    I always remember “And the spirit of Monkey was irrepressible”.

  34. Monkey in the Japanese TV series is based on Chinese Mythology and not Hindu Mythology. They are different Gods and Sun Wukong is the trickster God in that mythology.

    “Sun Wukong, also known as the Monkey King, is a prominent figure in Chinese mythology and literature, particularly in the classic novel Journey to the West. He embodies a mix of Taoist and Buddhist elements,”

  35. John Grimes, from the Smart Energy Council, gave a cracking speech today at the National Press Club: “Power politics: The political power of Australia’s renewable energy industry”. The highlights for me were:

    – his claim that the average solar panel contains 92% Australian IP
    – the call for a (belated) Nobel Prize in Physics for Prof. Martin Green
    – his opinion that Chris Bowen is the most effective cabinet minister in his portfolio
    – the relief that, the shockingly biased, Greg Jennett no longer hosts Afternoon Briefing.

  36. new boy

    “the moral dimension to combating climate change was just not important enough to most voters to override their fear of power bills they felt they could not afford.

    For me, an additional dimension to that particular tragedy was the decade of delay in curbing CO2 emissions which we suffered, because of the three terms of ATM Coalition governments, brought upon us by that electoral fear.

    Well put! And unfortunately it was that same negative energy and persuasion that convinced voters that they should also oppose “The Voice”. It might cost them money! Even though neither a price on carbon nor “The voice” would have cost any money.

    And, some of the lions of the Independents movement voted the price on carbon down, including Jacqui Lambie.

    Never forget how hard, and hard won, progressive change is. It requires the work of many of us, at a grass roots level, requiring us to be educated (see e.g mechanics institutes), to support unions (and when they run off the rails to make sure they are prosecuted to the full extent of the law), and to realise that those who would take away workers’ rights sometimes come form what appears to be “The Left”.

  37. Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 6:45 pm


    This is a good thing for Labor. Most Australians utterly hate Trump and what he stands for, yet they continue their crusade in trying to turn the Coalition into the US Republicans. Long may it continue so they can make 100+ seats in 2028 a reality.

    ==================
    Bit of an early prediction of yours Kirsdarke. What, ALP with 100 seats in 2028.

    I recall this prediction of yours from December…

    ———————-

    Kirsdarkesays:
    Thursday, December 19, 2024 at 11:37 pm

    Yeah that’s true, and it’s sad that it looks like they’ll just get away with it and win and fuck the world up into a second dark age.
    ========================
    Kirsdarke – You think Dutts will win?
    I’m still in the minority Labor phase.

    Honestly, yes. The trend is baked in and I think Dutton will win like Abbott and flip around a net 20 seats and secure a majority government since Albo doesn’t seem to have a clue of how to win from here.
    —————-

    Key points from Kirsdarke:

    * Dutton to win like Abbott {possibly flipping around 20 seats}, &
    * Albo doesn’t seem to have a clue. {Hmm, he got that right}.

    Here’s the actual thread if anyone thinks I’m “rigging it”.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/12/18/federal-polls-essential-research-and-roy-morgan-open-thread-4/comment-page-17/#comment-4421899

  38. “the call for a (belated) Nobel Prize in Physics for Prof. Martin Green”

    Maybe he could get the peace prize for that. It has helped people all around the world.

    Norman Borlaug got the peace prize for discovering that breeding of the SD allele into the main wheat crop meant wheat put far more of its energy into its seeds than its stems (also reduced stem lodging). Thus significantly increasing the yield of the crop. So peace prizes have been given for scientific break throughs that have greatly helped humanity.

  39. Cluck, cluck! Like bloody clockwork.

    After President Donald Trump paused his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, his trade adviser Peter Navarro promised the administration would deliver “90 deals in 90 days.”

    But that deadline came and went Wednesday with the White House 88 trade deals short.

    Trump has now given his administration 113 days to implement a worldwide tariff scheme that he says will reverse decades of globalization and usher in a new era of domestic manufacturing. But CEOs, investors and foreign leaders appear skeptical that Trump will stick to that Aug. 1 deadline after watching him punt the issue again and again.

    The episode has reanimated the TACO debate — the Wall Street accusation that “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The term, coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, describes a prevailing view in the financial sector that the president talks tough about tariffs and then ultimately backs down.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/09/trump-tariffs-taco-deadline-delay/


  40. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Wednesday, July 9, 2025 at 7:07 pm
    Ven

    Maybe it is not genocide because it is on brown people.

    My prediction why this is done: to build grotesque Trump-Israel riviera. ( You heard it first)

    Oh, now, it is genocide alright.

    A year ago I felt the “war crimes” was a better description, because it was more sure of getting a successful prosecution against Israel.

    But, now, yes genocide.

    However, I can see no positive benefit about us discussing this endlessly on PB. But I can see many negatives for this blog.

    For people who are really interested in promoting peace, find yourself a good website that will tell you which products to boycott because they are Israeli based. I used to limit it to goods from the occupied territories, a decade ago, but I now think that all Israeli products should be boycotted.

    We need a peoples movement, like we had with the people against Apartheid South Africa, right around the world. It took some time – but it was eventually regime changing.

    For people railing at their current governments for not doing enough, yeah, you may have a point, but I think more than a number of you are just using this conflict to advance your own domestic political aims.

    D&M
    I don’t have any separate political aims because I have always supported ALP in its darkest days because most of my aims met their aims.
    ALP had a hand (albeit a small one) in creating International rules-based order. and Australia benefited from that.
    In a world of ‘might is right’ Australia will have very to difficulty time in future because we can no longer depend upon USA anymore.
    I have a stake in the good future for Australia because I along with my family have invested in this country.

  41. The Trump administration’s top diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, was overseeing a deal to free several Americans and dozens of political prisoners held in Venezuela in exchange for sending home about 250 Venezuelan migrants the United States had deported to El Salvador.

    But the deal never happened.

    Part of the reason: President Trump’s envoy to Venezuela was working on his own deal, one with terms that Venezuela deemed more attractive. In exchange for American prisoners, he was offering to allow Chevron to continue its oil operations in Venezuela, a vital source of revenue for its authoritarian government.

    The discussions, which included the release of about 80 Venezuelan political prisoners, and the two different deals were described by two U.S. officials and two other people who are familiar with the talks and sought anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue.

    The State Department never sealed the deal. The top U.S. officials did not appear to be communicating with each other and ended up at cross purposes. The approximately 250 people expelled from the United States are still being held in a maximum-security prison in El Salvador. And it became clear that while Mr. Trump’s White House once said that it had no control over the detainees in El Salvador, it was willing to use them as bargaining chips.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/world/americas/trump-venezuelan-migrants-us-prisoner-swap.html

    So which is it: does the Trump administration have the ability to get CECOT prisoners released or don’t they? It was always evident that because they are paying El Salvador that they had sway over the prisoners there and their fate despite Trump and Bukele claims to the contrary.

    Now everyone knows it was all bullshit all along.

  42. So which is it: does the Trump administration have the ability to get CECOT prisoners released or don’t they? It was always evident that because they are paying El Salvador that they had sway over the prisoners there and their fate despite Trump and Bukele claims to the contrary.
    ——————————————————–

    Sounds like the Trump administration lied to the USA courts. Which by my reading at least is contempt of court.

  43. I’m not watching the State of Origin tonight and was going to say, may the least corrupt State win!

    However I realised that Qld now has an LNP government again.

    So may I just say, Go Queensland!

  44. Nobody is understandably making much of the politics around this, but the questions will eventually come. Namely, how impactful the Trump/DOGE cuts of circa 600 personnel at NOAA and the Weather Service impeded the flood warnings to residents. And then there are the cuts to FEMA!

    More than 160 people are known to be missing after devastating floods swept through Central Texas over the July Fourth weekend, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said Tuesday — raising the possibility that the death toll could surpass 200 in what is already one of the deadliest flood events in the past five decades.

    “Just in the Kerr County area alone, there are 161 people who are known to be missing,” Abbott said at a news conference Tuesday. “We will not stop until every missing person is accounted for.”

    Torrential downpours caused a surge of river water early Friday, producing a deluge that left 109 people dead. The disaster claimed the lives of more than two dozen children, shaking the region in a scene that Abbott has described as “nothing short of horrific.” The magnitude of the tragedy also exposed gaps in the region’s ability to warn people about catastrophic weather events.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/07/08/texas-flooding-missing-death-toll/

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