RedBridge Group: 55.5-44.5 to Labor (open thread)

The second pollster to take the field since the election confirms Labor’s dominance, plus an update on prospects for a legal challenge to the result in Bradfield.

The Financial Review has the results of a large-sample poll from RedBridge Group, the second pollster to take the field post-election after Roy Morgan. The results are not far off Roy Morgan’s: Labor on 37%, compared with 34.6% at the election; the Coalition on 31%, compared with 31.8%; and the Greens on 11%, compared with 12.2%. Labor is credited with a 55.5-44.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8 – lower than I might have expected based on preference flows from the recent election, but perhaps explicable by One Nation accounting for a larger share of “others”. Breakdowns are more balanced than you might expect with regard to gender, but results by age tell a familiar story of the Coalition vote descending from 44% among the 65+ cohort to 19% among 18-to-34, the Greens rising from 2% to 24%, and Labor fairly consistent across the board. The poll was conducted “late June” from a sample of 4036.

Another item of federally relating polling emerges from a report by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald on debate within the Liberal Party over whether to challenge independent Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote win in Bradfield in court. Local branch presidents are calling on the party to put up the money, but others consider this “a risk financially and politically”. The report cites polling conducted in mid-June for Climate 200 which suggests Boele would likely win a by-election resulting from a legal challenge, with her primary vote up from 27.0% at the election to 33.2%, with Gisele Kapterian’s 37.3% comparing with an election result of 38.0%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 thoughts on “RedBridge Group: 55.5-44.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 14 of 32
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  1. GFY2 @ #643 Sunday, July 6th, 2025 – 9:20 am

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/06/a-distracted-world-marches-steadily-towards-catastrophe/

    This is really, really bad news. But sure, let’s keep exporting those fossil fuels, right? In fact, let’s export even more! After all, this is a demand problem, and has nothing at all to do with the fact that we sell our fossil fuels so cheaply that we don’t even make any money out of doing so!

    Honestly, how stupid are we? 🙁

  2. If you can speak the truth on Putin’s regime, why can’t you speak the truth on the Trump and Netanyahu regimes …?

  3. Australia was very lucky that the pollsters stuffed up. If the approaching landslide had been made known generally, the LNP and their billionaire backers would have cranked up the bullshit output in attempt to reverse the result. Additional mugs would have fallen for it.

  4. mb

    Has France ever willingly allowed one of its colonies to become independent? I can’t immediately think of an example.

    Off the top of my head, no.

    And after watching a documentary of the years from 1946 to 1980 at the Musée de Nouméa, the Gaullist governments of the 5th republic royally stuffed things up in New Caledonia after 1968. Three students who had returned to Noumea from Paris in 1968, bringing new ideas, and they were very vocal about supporting Ho Chi Min.

    The Paris government cracked down hard, and then started a “Whitening” program that ran for some years from the 1970s, increasing the number of Europeans compared to the existing Kanak / Polynesian and east Asian population. This sort of thing was usually a 19th century solution! And a few pied noir snuck in, which has not helped things.

    Anyway, New Caledonia is still paying the price. Although, what gives me hope is the solidarity between the members of the population.

  5. Thanks Socrates.

    It looks like the John Curtin Research Centre has a YouTube page so I’ll scan that over the next few days to see if the full speech gets uploaded.

  6. Bizzcan
    The point I was (inexpertly) trying to make was that governments – before the dismantling of the Bretton-Woods system, oil crises and stagflation of the ’70s – were more inclined to actively manage their economies than they have been in the decades since.

    Moreover, after outsourcing many of their responsibilities to the private sector during the ’80s and ’90s, they have lost much of their capacity to govern effectively. Instead, the ‘market’ is left to ‘decide’ how services are provided, because governments are not allowed to ‘pick winners’.

    For example, the Minns government commissioned a consultant, Cameron O’Reilly, to review the Electricity Infrastructure Investment Act 2020 which had been legislated by the previous government. In the subsequent report (“the Check Up”*), he observed that while the legislation was sound, the government having privatised all of its electrical infrastructure, did not have the public service capacity to implement it. In addition, the government has almost no say over the closure of the four existing (government built) coal power plants and is basically left to wait and hope that the market provides replacement generation.

    * NSW Electricity Supply and Reliability Check Up
    Prepared for NSW Treasury – Office of Energy & Climate Change (OECC)
    4 August 2023

  7. Douglas and Milko: “Anyway, New Caledonia is still paying the price. Although, what gives me hope is the solidarity between the members of the population.”
    —————————————————————————-
    That’s good to hear. It’s somewhere I’ve always wanted to visit, although I think it might be a little behind Tahiti on my bucket list of French colonies. Not to mention intriguing places such as the Indian Ocean island of La Reunion (which has a population of 900,000) and the islands of St Pierre and Miquelon off the coast of Newfoundland, which Britain allowed the French to retain after Seven Years’s War 1763 as a base for accessing their remaining fisheries in Canada (and were the French grateful? Non! They later used the islands as a base for attacking British shipping during the American War of Independence).

    The French sure do have some interesting remnant colonies. As do the British: think Bermuda, St Helena, Tristan da Cunha and the Pitcairn Islands.

  8. Mr Trump doesn’t listen to reason very much, but he does apparently read the New York Post every morning. Here’s their editorial from Friday, July 4:

    “Vlad gave his answer to peace, Mr. President: We must re-arm Ukraine”
    https://nypost.com/2025/07/04/opinion/vlad-gave-his-answer-to-peace-mr-president-we-must-re-arm-ukraine/

    Mr. President, we know you understand that the primary obstacle to peace in Ukraine is Russia’s aggression.

    You said you were “disappointed” in the conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, and that you “don’t think he’s looking to stop.”

    Putin again insisted he was unwilling to commit to a ceasefire until the “root causes” of the conflict were addressed.

    For Vlad, the “root cause” is the existence of Ukraine.

    He followed your call with the largest drone and missile strike of the war, killing at least one.

    So why, Mr. President, is your administration punishing Ukraine? …

    … Putin only understands strength. He will continue to insult and ignore you if the United States doesn’t commit to Kyiv’s defense.

    Reports are that the conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday went well, and that you talked about strengthening the country’s air defenses. That’s excellent news.

    The fall of Ukraine is not a disaster that can be blamed on someone else, or explained away as inconsequential. It would destabilize the world, weaken America and reflect negatively on your presidency. Don’t walk away.

    My God, I hope Mr Trump doesn’t walk away from Ukraine and leave it to the depradations of Putin’s Russia.

    We must do all we can, as US allies, to underscore the importance of repelling Russia’s unjustified aggression to the maintenance of peace and safety for smaller nations in this world.

  9. D&M
    I’m guessing you mean the movement led by Mairead Corrigan and Betty Williams in 1976 – it’s main activity was two marches inspired by tragic incident and they became the darlings of the London papers while the Dublin papers were less fawning.
    One of the criticisms was the lack of substance with no proposed path to reconciliation other than “giving peace a chance”.

    The Sunningdale peace agreement had been signed 18 months earlier and then destroyed by Ian Paisley’s general strike and I believe that a Women’s popular initiative to preserve Sunningdale at that time may have achieved something but by 1976 it was too late. As it was, it took another 25 years and 2000 deaths before Good Friday (Sunningdale for slow learners) came in.

    The Peace People had largely collapsed through internal disputes by the time of the Nobel prize – Corrigan and Williams were hardly talking to each other and the movement virtually disappeared whem they each pocketed the prize money.


  10. Pegasussays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 9:10 am
    Israel: The true superpower? Journalist exposes global threat in explosive Sydney talk

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/07/israel-the-true-superpower-journalist-exposes-global-threat-in-explosive-sydney-talk/

    “In a searing address to a sold-out crowd in Sydney on Saturday night 28 June 2025, award-winning Australian investigative journalist Antony Loewenstein declared that Israel has quietly become the world’s most dangerous superpower, wielding weapons, surveillance technology, and AI systems perfected on Palestinians to control populations across many countries.

    After the premiere screening of The Palestine Laboratory at Dendy Cinemas in Newtown, Loewenstein laid bare how Israel’s unique fusion of military, intelligence, and technology industries — tested on occupied Palestinian populations — has transformed it into a global leader in repressive technology, arms sales and digital warfare.

    The event was hosted by Palestine Justice Movement Sydney and The Jewish Council of Australia, drawing a packed audience eager to hear one of the world’s most outspoken critics of Israeli policy.”

    Isn’t Antony Loewenstein, like Peter Newhouse, a self-hating Jew?
    Israel is a Super power because it can shake Western democracies especially USA in their boots with usage of one phrase.


  11. Pegasussays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 9:11 am
    GA

    Victoria police charge man over synagogue fire
    Victoria police say a man has been charged after a suspicious fire at a synagogue in East Melbourne on Friday night.

    The 34-year-old NSW man was arrested in Melbourne city at about 8.15pm on Saturday. He was interviewed by detectives and charged with reckless conduct endangering life, reckless conduct endangering serious injury, criminal damage by fire, and possession of a controlled weapon

    Victorian police said yesterday that they are still deciding whether it was a terrorist attack or not.
    Is he a Muslim or not? If he is a Muslim then it is a terrorist attack.
    Otherwise, the punishment should fit the crime.

  12. History is littered with injustice against all manner of people.

    The latest happenings in the USA is an opportunity for the citizenry to really reflect on the truth of their nation and what it represents,

    It’s all well and good to sprout the mantra, the land of the free.

    Once the English colonised the US, it has always been with the view that rich white men had dominion over the populace.

    All the hard fought fights over the years, were about rights for the enslaved minorities and women.

    What is happening now?

    Women’s rights being eroded and minorities being put back in their box with a view to them being cheap labor for the robber barons.

    Fancy calling the concentration camp. Alligator Alcatraz.

    The fight continues.


  13. Stoogey Lurkersays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 10:00 am
    Bizzcan
    The point I was (inexpertly) trying to make was that governments – before the dismantling of the Bretton-Woods system, oil crises and stagflation of the ’70s – were more inclined to actively manage their economies than they have been in the decades since.

    Moreover, after outsourcing many of their responsibilities to the private sector during the ’80s and ’90s, they have lost much of their capacity to govern effectively. Instead, the ‘market’ is left to ‘decide’ how services are provided, because governments are not allowed to ‘pick winners’.

    For example, the Minns government commissioned a consultant, Cameron O’Reilly, to review the Electricity Infrastructure Investment Act 2020 which had been legislated by the previous government. In the subsequent report (“the Check Up”*), he observed that while the legislation was sound, the government having privatised all of its electrical infrastructure, did not have the public service capacity to implement it. In addition, the government has almost no say over the closure of the four existing (government built) coal power plants and is basically left to wait and hope that the market provides replacement generation.

    * NSW Electricity Supply and Reliability Check Up
    Prepared for NSW Treasury – Office of Energy & Climate Change (OECC)
    4 August 2023

    Too right SL, too right!

    The western democracies, except for few exceptions, have ceded so much ground to ‘markets’ and private sectors that they have very little capacity to govern properly in the name of people.
    As a result we had GFC, where western democracies fared worse than other nations. They have to spend so much money to prop up economies and banks that they raked up huge deficits.
    It was “privatise profits and socialise losses”.
    Now a oligarh in America has gone even further to do reverse Robin hood by robbing the poor and feeding the rich.
    We are seeing the worst instincts across western countries, that includes Russia and Israel.

    Some here say “but Xi….”
    There is no but Xi. It is all the way Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Orban etc, etc etc.

  14. The current PM gives a speech to honour our most significant PM. You would think that the ABC could at least make a quarter-assed attempt to cover it on their website.

  15. “For Australia, we helped develop a comprehensive review of the latest climate science to guide preparedness for future floods. This showed the increase per degree of global warming was about 7–28% for hourly or shorter duration extreme rain, and 2–15% for daily or longer extreme rain.”
    https://theconversation.com/supercharged-thunderstorms-have-we-underestimated-how-climate-change-drives-extreme-rain-and-floods-228896

    Sea surface temperature:
    https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

  16. Ven, I think that there is something gravely askew between your logic and your conclusions.

    Unless I’m missing something.

  17. Thanks to HH & Confessions for their daily news round up links. Ukraine is given good coverage. But special thanks to newy boy whose posts keep the Ukraine conflict front & centre (& deservedly so). And to the other bludgers who contribute as well. I know that other bludger(s) in the past have earnt William’s displeasure in focusing on Ukraine (his blog, his rules) but don’t feel a bit isolated.

    D&M, I too felt sick with Putin’s invasion on 22/02/2022. As a son of post war European migrants the horror is deeply embedded in the family DNA. Another destructive hot war in Europe is so depressive for me.
    Australia is a successful multicultural society and it’s people of various backgrounds influence the polity of the nation. So discussion on the Ukrainian conflict (& the Gazan humanitarian disaster) are imho very relevant to this political blog.
    As a lurker and infrequent poster thanks William and bludgers for making PB an intellectual refuge on those lovely occasions when the internecine conflicts are in abeyance 🙂
    I’ll get out of your way now.

  18. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 9:39 am
    If you can speak the truth on Putin’s regime, why can’t you speak the truth on the Trump and Netanyahu regimes …?
    ============================================================

    There are people that will try and silence you for speaking out on either. I have seen some posts of yours trying to do it too, on one of these two topics.

  19. vote1julia, Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 11:32 am:
    —————-

    Thank you! I always thought it was unjustifiably selective to single out the Russo-Ukrainian War for ostracism as a topic.

    There are over 50,000 Australians with Ukrainian ancestry or birth. Don’t they matter? There are also over 110,000 Australians with Russian ancestry or birth. They need to decide where they stand in terms of support for or opposition to genocide.

    Further, as a small-to-middle power, Australia needs the world to operate within the framework of the UN Charter, at least most of the time. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is a blatant violation of that charter, so any Australian government must grapple with the question of how to respond to it.

  20. US Defence Secretary Pete Hesgeth is behaving exactly as a Russian stooge would:

    “Hegseth falsely cited weapon shortages in halting shipments to Ukraine, Democrats say:
    Reports indicate defense secretary unilaterally acted to halt shipment even as Pentagon suggested US arsenal is stocked”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/05/hegseth-weapons-shipments-ukraine

    Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, unilaterally halted an agreed shipment of military aid to Ukraine due to baseless concerns that US stockpiles of weapons have run too low, it has been reported…

    … “This decision is certainly very unpleasant for us,” said Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of the Ukrainian parliament’s defense committee, according to Reuters.

    “It’s painful, and against the background of the terrorist attacks which Russia commits against Ukraine.”

    The Department of Defense did not reply to a request for comment on the aid pause.

    Richard Marles, Penny Wong and Anthony Albanese need to raise this matter with their US counterparts at the earliest opportunity.

  21. JCRC is promising video of last night’s oration on their socials “shortly”. Whether that be full coverage is left unstated.

  22. Adass Israel Synagogue of Melbourne was burnt down by a terrorist attack in December 2024. To my knowledge nobody has been charged over it? Though we know at least three people were involved. The fire bombing of a Melbourne Synagogue has a lot in common with that attack. A single male from Sydney NSW has so far been charged over that attack. Does he have any connection to the earlier attack too? Is the reason that Victoria Police have had trouble finding the culprits due to them looking in the wrong state for them?

    Still I think Victoria should reject the Modi option and not bomb NSW over this.

  23. GA

    Former Labor minister Stephen Jones is going to Paris to become the next Australian ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, in an announcement by foreign minister Penny Wong and treasurer Jim Chalmers.

  24. Kirsdarke

    “Mamdani (D): 41%
    Cuomo (I): 26%
    Adams (I): 16%
    Sliwa (R): >10%

    Still a lot to play out, but looks like Mamdani has a comfortable lead for the moment.”

    Thanks. Cuomo presumably thought he could win over Mamdani by acting as a consensus candidate. But so far all he is doing is splitting the Republican vote. Great 🙂

    The Democrats desperately need new blood in leadership ranks.

  25. Back from the shopping where I was listening to an excellent edition of the After America podcast by Emma Shortis. Today’s episode featured

    “On this episode of After America, Professor James Laurenceson, Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the Trump administration’s confused approach to China and how Australia is navigating these complex relationships.”

    https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/hows-that-trade-war-working-out/

    Laurenceson was a very informative speaker, who made some excellent points about trade between Australia and China. He is quite complimentary of the Albanese government’s foreign and economic policy with China. He is much less complimentary of the “security hawks” who think we should be lining up with USA to fight China. Worth listening whichever camp you are in.

  26. Pegasussays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 12:45 pm
    GA
    Former Labor minister Stephen Jones is going to Paris to become the next Australian ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, in an announcement by foreign minister Penny Wong and treasurer Jim Chalmers.
    _____________________
    Hypocrites.
    Hold your nose Labor supporters.

  27. Former Labor minister Stephen Jones is going to Paris to become the next Australian ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, in an announcement by foreign minister Penny Wong and treasurer Jim Chalmers.
    _____________________
    Hypocrites.
    Hold your nose Labor supporters.
    ——————————————————

    “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/mathias-cormann/anthony-albanese-confirms-labor-will-back-mathias-cormanns-nomination-for-key-oecd-position-ng-b881705180z

  28. Strikes made against infrastructure serving Russia’s Pacific Fleet, which operates in some of the same oceans as our RAN does:

    “Pipelines supplying Russian military explode in Russia’s Far East, source says”
    https://kyivindependent.com/pipelines-supplying-russian-military-explode-in-far-east-near-vladivostok-06-2025/

    Explosions in Russia’s Vladivostok damaged a gas pipeline and destroyed a water pipeline that supplied military facilities in the area, an unnamed intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on July 5.

    A fire followed the explosions and destroyed branches of the Vladivostok gas pipeline along the Sea of Japan, the source said.

    Good news for us, that a blow has been struck against the naval arm of a genocidal autocracy operating in Pacific waters.

  29. Pegasus

    “ Israel: The true superpower? Journalist exposes global threat in explosive Sydney talk

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/07/israel-the-true-superpower-journalist-exposes-global-threat-in-explosive-sydney-talk/

    “In a searing address to a sold-out crowd in Sydney on Saturday night 28 June 2025, award-winning Australian investigative journalist Antony Loewenstein declared that Israel has quietly become the world’s most dangerous superpower, wielding weapons, surveillance technology, and AI systems perfected on Palestinians to control populations across many countries.”
    —————————————————————————
    I would agree that in the context of the middle east Israel is a military superpower. It has more tanks and jet aircraft than any EU country.

    Yet I think that Israel’s only real superpower is the ability to manipulate US public opinion. Israel has a smaller GDP than Ireland; about 1/3 of Australia’s GDP. The only way Israel can keep a huge military is via US military aid.

    If US military aid stops, Israel’s military would shrink rapidly. Without it they would be lucky to match the ADF.

  30. ‘Anti-Zionism is not antisemitism

    Not all Jewish people are Zionists. Not all Zionists are Jewish. In the US, there are more Christian Zionists than Jewish Zionists. Christian Zionists, such as Pentecostals and evangelicals, have sought the Jewish people to be located in Israel, as it’s part of their “end of times” prophecies, which involve the second coming of Christ only occurring after a Jewish state is established in the “Holy Land”.

    Many political commentators, journalists, politicians, artists, activists and everyday people living in the colonised nation of Australia have been slandered as antisemitic and even taken to court, due to daring to have criticised the wanton barbarism that Israel has unleashed on the Palestinians. Indeed, so heinous has the Gaza genocide been that it’s seen the edifice of international law collapse.

    As renowned US professor Judith Butler explained during a 2024 forum in Paris, Zionists began conflating criticism of Israel and Zionism with antisemitism starting in the 1970s, in order to deflect criticism of the Zionist state of Israel and its brutal policies and operations against the Palestinians, as despite Zionists promising to uphold Palestinian rights, they were being oppressed and destroyed.

    The reason why being deemed antisemitic carries such weight is due to the horrors of the Holocaust, which saw the Nazis and collaborators committing a mass slaughter of European Jews to the point that 6 million were killed. Many too young to recall the Holocaust understand its barbarity in a more visceral way now, due to Israel currently inflicting the same barbarity upon the Palestinians.

    Israel has been snipering Palestinian kids. Israel is starving over 2 million Palestinians. Israel has raped Palestinian prisoners to death using metal rods. Israel has levelled the ancient city of Gaza, destroying a society along with it. Israel is committing mass murder, a holocaust or a genocide upon the Palestinians. And Israel bombed all Gaza’s hospitals with patients inside.

    But in the current climate in this country and right across the western world, stating such facts can see an individual labelled an antisemite, or even worse, legal action can be launched against them.

    Genocide is what you call it

    Israel cut off all humanitarian aid into Gaza on 2 March, which was not the first time. So, not only are the Israelis continuing to bomb and shoot the Palestinians, but they’re starving to death an entire population. Israel also banned and stopped the operations of UNRWA, the UN aid agency that had been providing assistance to the Palestinians of Gaza since 1950, in late January.

    In its place, Israel has established, with US assistance, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which began operating in late May. US evangelical leader Johnnie Moore Junior was appointed to run the GHF in early June. The former Trump campaign advisor and Zionist was placed in charge after initial reports about the mass killing of Palestinians turning up to receive food aid caused headlines.

    The Israeli military is guarding the aid distribution sites where starving Palestinians can acquire boxes of food. However, Palestinians risk being shot dead in doing so.

    Over 600 Palestinians have been shot dead and over 4,000 have been injured whilst attending GHF distribution sites.

    “Israeli soldiers told Israeli publication Haaretz last week that they are being ordered to purposely shoot unarmed Palestinians turning up and waiting for food aid to be distributed.” – my emphasis.

    However, to dwell on the fact that Israel’s new aid distribution operation in Gaza is as genocidal as the nation’s government and its military are, has the potential to encourage a Zionist to call one out as an antisemite, so it’s best to keep this understanding on the lowdown.’

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/anti-zionism-is-anti-colonialism-not-antisemitism/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-28

  31. Shell Bell &King O

    Shubman Gill is the first player in the format’s history, spanning more than 2,500 matches, to score 200 and 150 in the same match (India-England 2nd test); only once has a batter scored more than his 430-run aggregate in a single Test.

    Is that true? If so, isn’t that extraordinary achievement?


  32. Socratessays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 9:15 am
    Morning all. Thanks Confessions and HH for the excellent foreign roundups this morning. Thanks also to Douglas and Milko for her lovely post on New Caledonia last night.

    Confessions

    “ From Monday Trump will be issuing letters to around a dozen countries announcing tariffs on imports in a re-escalation of the trade war. What is it with this obsession he has with tariffs?!”
    https://www.axios.com/2025/07/05/trump-tariffs-letters

    There is a simple answer to Trump’s obsession with tariffs – tax revenue. Trump’s big beautiful bill results in a huge debt. Trump ought to raise taxes to pay for it but that is not the GOP way. Tariffs do it indirectly.

    Yep!
    Robin hood in reverse.

  33. Ven @ #691 Sunday, July 6th, 2025 – 2:02 pm


    Don’t call it ‘Alligator Alcatraz.’ Call it a concentration camp: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/immigration-alligator-alcatraz-concentration-camp-rcna216874

    Yep!

    In my more darker moments I wonder just how far away the Americans are from being able to get away with just killing their undesirables.

    That’s what most of those in charge want to do in the end after all, just not in a way where people resist too much.

    2027 after the midterms where Trump just doesn’t care anymore? 2028 after the Los Angeles Olympics when like the 1936 Berlin Olympics they hold off on bringing on the really scary stuff until after international attention is turned away?


  34. Omar Comin’says:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 9:28 am
    Arky @ #620 Saturday, July 5th, 2025 – 10:22 pm

    Thankyou Kevin …

    Arky I thought you would enjoy this bit

    The classical herding theory is that pollsters are copying each other (or copying aggregates), making sure their results are similar to those of other pollsters so that they don’t end up being the only pollster who is way wrong. However, clustering can happen in a variety of ways, including pollsters being influenced not by other polls but by perceptions about what the result “should” or “shouldn’t” be. Because polling is still not very transparent in Australia, there is abundant opportunity for pollsters to make subjective decisions about how to apply a particular weighting from poll to poll (for instance) and in this case there would have been very strong priors against the result that we actually got. Pollsters had overestimated the Labor primary in both 2019 and 2022. There is a general pattern that polling errors in Australia somewhat favour Labor, and elections are also usually close and frequently closer than the final polls suggest. Nobody expects a once in 50 years blowout from a leadup with the parties closely matched. While I am not saying that all or nearly all pollsters would have been influenced in this way instead of just taking a method and sticking with it, it only takes a few to create the appearance of herding. The full scale of the result may have been missed because it was unthinkable.

    Thinkable only to Omar. 🙂

  35. Entropysays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 1:22 pm
    Former Labor minister Stephen Jones is going to Paris to become the next Australian ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, in an announcement by foreign minister Penny Wong and treasurer Jim Chalmers.
    _____________________
    Hypocrites.
    Hold your nose Labor supporters.
    ——————————————————

    “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/mathias-cormann/anthony-albanese-confirms-labor-will-back-mathias-cormanns-nomination-for-key-oecd-position-ng-b881705180z

    ___________________

    My impressions have been that Cormann has been a significant improver of the OECD, really lifting its reputation. Stephen Jones will be a good fit as Ambassador to the organisation given the OECD has increased its tax policy focus.

  36. My impressions have been that Cormann has been a significant improver of the OECD, really lifting its reputation. Stephen Jones will be a good fit as Ambassador to the organisation given the OECD has increased its tax policy focus.
    ————————————————————-

    I agree, Cormann was a lot better at the OECD than as a Finance Minster in the LNP Government. I suspect Jones will do a good job too. I still don’t understand TM’s use of the word ‘hypocrisy” in this context either. As that would imply Labor was doing something in Government that it opposed in opposition. Obviously the blocking of Rudd to an UN position did reek of LNP hypocrisy by all involved, with the notable exception of Julie Bishop. Unfortunately she was a women, so even as Foreign Minister her opinion didn’t count in a LNP Government. How would it be being Foreign Minister and have things which are clearly in your portfolio overridden by bunch of “Big Swinging Dicks”.


  37. Fulvio Sammutsays:
    Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 11:30 am
    Ven, I think that there is something gravely askew between your logic and your conclusions.

    Unless I’m missing something.

    Fulvio
    What is wrong with my logic and conclusions?

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