The Financial Review has the results of a large-sample poll from RedBridge Group, the second pollster to take the field post-election after Roy Morgan. The results are not far off Roy Morgan’s: Labor on 37%, compared with 34.6% at the election; the Coalition on 31%, compared with 31.8%; and the Greens on 11%, compared with 12.2%. Labor is credited with a 55.5-44.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8 – lower than I might have expected based on preference flows from the recent election, but perhaps explicable by One Nation accounting for a larger share of “others”. Breakdowns are more balanced than you might expect with regard to gender, but results by age tell a familiar story of the Coalition vote descending from 44% among the 65+ cohort to 19% among 18-to-34, the Greens rising from 2% to 24%, and Labor fairly consistent across the board. The poll was conducted “late June” from a sample of 4036.
Another item of federally relating polling emerges from a report by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald on debate within the Liberal Party over whether to challenge independent Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote win in Bradfield in court. Local branch presidents are calling on the party to put up the money, but others consider this “a risk financially and politically”. The report cites polling conducted in mid-June for Climate 200 which suggests Boele would likely win a by-election resulting from a legal challenge, with her primary vote up from 27.0% at the election to 33.2%, with Gisele Kapterian’s 37.3% comparing with an election result of 38.0%.
”
Beansays:
Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 9:27 am
An article that was missed in the international roundup.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93901n9z0qo.amp
The UK has made history. This is first time I know of where a protest group has outright been labelled as a terrorist organisation. A seriously concerning precedent.
”
Bean
The most tragic thing about it is that banning of protests, police brutality and labelling protest group as terrorist organisation are happening under Labor/ Labour governments watch specifically wrt when it pertains to Israel.
What happens when the deranged Putin lover in the white house puts a sycophant in to run
the Federal Reserve? Erdoğan Mk II?
“As Trump’s big, beautiful debt gets ever bigger, give thanks for the RBA”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/as-trump-s-big-beautiful-debt-gets-ever-bigger-let-s-give-thanks-for-the-rba-20250702-p5mbvo.html
Pedantsays:
Friday, July 4, 2025 at 10:46 pm
Steve777 @ 10.32 pm
There’s little doubt that a deal between the government and the cross benches would have produced a NACC with teeth, like ICAC in NSW. Given that coalition Senate majorities are looking less and less likely, such a body with teeth would probably have been eminently durable even without coalition support. And a body empowered to function with transparency would have been able over time to build up its own reserve of public support which would have ensured its durability. The government’s willingness to cave in to the coalition’s demands was its worst policy failure in the last Parliament.
_________________
A transparent NACC with teeth is a big vote winner.
Labor had the parliamentary numbers to deliver that. It was sustainable.
Yet Labor chose to do a deal with Dutton and create a facade.
Why ??
We all know why.
“Point to me where I said anything remotely like that.”
———————————————————-
It was sarcasm about actors in their 60’s playing the young leading male role. It doesn’t apply to actresses who generally play age appropriate roles.
Stoogy Lurker
plus 1.
The Climate Action Tracker is interesting:
https://climateactiontracker.org
Here you can see an interactive map showing which countries are meeting which goals. Not one country is 1.5 degrees Paris Agreement compatible.
The countries that are almost sufficient are:
Bhutan
Chile
Costa Rica
Ethiopia
Kenya
Morocco
Nepal
Nigeria
Norway
The Gambia
Of these countries, only Chile and Norway are really relevant to us.
Chile, in which I have worked and lived, is doing well because of the enormous effort over the last two decades to install large-scale solar and wind farms. They were spurred on in this by the difficulty of getting gas, which they had to get via a back door, for geo-political reasons.
Of course it helps that the Atacama is not full of farmers winging about infrasound, or how the transmission lines spoil their view.
Here is the map from CAT showing countries that are almost sufficient (yellow) and insufficient (orange). You can follow the link above to see which are 1.5 degree compatible (none), or critically or highly insufficient.
Just back from local footy.
As a Blues fan, thank god for local footy and community. A glorious morning for it too, weather-wise.
Rex
Sounds like a lovely morning.
Are the Blues Carlton?
It appears that these “Palestinian” groups need to be registered as a Terrorist Organisation here in Australia as well as was done in the UK, Albo do your magic…
“Attacking a Melbourne restaurant does nothing for peace in the Middle East”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/attacking-a-melbourne-restaurant-does-nothing-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-20250705-p5mcpr.html
Utterly Fucking disgraceful.
D&M
Yep. They ain’t the Carlton I’ve always known. It’s a very different beast now.
Stoogey Lurker @ #492 Saturday, July 5th, 2025 – 12:11 pm
You think Labor is going to? Instead of just pretending to do so as they have done for the past three years, while actually approving more and more fossil fuel extraction?
Hmm, checks notes… Labor has approved more Renewable Energy projects over its 1st Term than any previous federal government.
It’s an ‘Inconvenient Truth’ but one we should keep in mind if we’re going to play games with scorecards.
Wat Tylersays:
Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 11:26 am
Older actors still getting work (other than playing an older relative to the main character) is good actually. It’s not like Hollywood has a shortage of younger actors.
Honestly, there’s a point where the term “gerontocracy” just becomes barely concealed ageism.
_____________________
I don’t have an issue with older actors.
But I think that a remake of a 20 year old film, with a cast older than the original is now, is super weird.
I don’t have a specific point, just that modern pop cinema is largely the same 6 franchises and 15 same actors over and over again.
Excellent news, Labor moving forward with renewables and their backbone to power the economy forward, no wonder the other extremist rabble (Greens and LNP) got the kicking they deserved.
Newy boy (from earlier)
“ Alas the rules based order is no more, despite our pretence that AUKUS will preserve it.”
I guess attacked nations are on their own then. They better capitulate to stronger hostile nations if they know what’s good for them. Never mind how genocidal that invader’s intentions are.”
———————————————————-
Of course I also support Australia developing regional alliances with like minded countries (Korea, Japan, Singapore etc) so I don’t suggest we be isolationist.
However I do think we ought to be planning for the possibility that we might need to defend on our own because USA might not turn up whether we like it or not.
This is, in my opinion, a must watch overview of the current status of the US vis the rest of the world.
In essence it sets out the argument that the US is having a nervous breakdown and the “US Century” is over!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUUxqG7b9jg
C@tmomma, maybe keep reading further in those notes about your beloved Labor party giving on the one hand (renewable energy projects) but taking far more on the other hand – more (massive) gas and more coal approvals.
Also see if you can find in the notes how the Labor party promised new environmental laws in 2022 and the public is yet to see even a draft of the laws.
Hero to zero in 2 years flat.
I don’t mind a bit of ageism myself. Older people have been slagging off young people for generations and it wasn’t that long ago that rich old people were sending kids up chimneys and into machinery. Fuck old people.
Re Socrates @1:11.
”However I do think we ought to be planning for the possibility that we might need to defend on our own because USA might not turn up whether we like it or not.”
Absolutely. The USA can no longer be considered a dependable ally. Maybe in four years’ time the USA will have a “normal” President, but if so, what about the one after that? One Trump term might be an aberration, but two looks like the beginning of a habit. I think that there has been a sea change in the USA and this must inform our future dealings.
Yes Ven it is a damn shame. Weirdly enough I don’t even think the Tories wouldn’t have done this. Keir has wedged himself on the issue because of the years of undermining his own party by painting Corbyn as an antisemite and delivering 5 brutal years of Conservative rule.
I’m actually looking forward to the UFC fights on the White House lawn. It’s got a touch of the tail end of the Roman Empire about it.
Stuart
Will Trump build a colosseum on the White House grounds next and feed “illegals” to the alligators as a public spectacle demonstrating his determination?
So with the Trump regime now passing laws to kill clean energy and encourage more burning of fossil fuels.
These are the things that make approvals of fossil fuels in Australia really insignificant, when a large country like the US will be doing as much as it can to actually burn as much fossil fuels as it can, which is the real problem.
The only kinda positive for Australia is we might benefit from attracting more clean energy projects thanks to the US.
Nick @ #522 Saturday, July 5th, 2025 – 3:27 pm
Yeah, it’s a big opportunity for us here. If there’s one thing we have in abundance, it’s sunlight.
I recall from a while back that a Solar Energy expert from Germany being surprised that we’re being so slow about it because in Europe they only get a fraction of the energy there that’s available to us. Plus it helps that we have a government with a large majority that has an interest in lucrative projects that can advance it.
It’s a shame that the opposition doesn’t share that view and wants to crush it to a dead halt if they get the chance to.
While Australia should be phasing out the burning off fossil fuels here, replacing it with renewable sources, it makes no sense to unilaterally shut down major exports as our Green colleagues are urging. We should only be phasing down our coal and gas exports in the context of agreements with a majority of other suppliers otherwise it would be nothing more than a massively expensive virtue signal that will nothing to cut global emissions. There’ll be all to many willing to fill in the gap we leave, just as there were with uranium. If enough of the rest of the world does their share, the fossil fuel market will contract as demand reduces, but we are not going to force the rest of the world into good behaviour.
Nath
As someone who went into bat for you a while back when you were banned from Poll Bludger, because I saw value in your contributions, I don’t think a post like that does you any favours at all mate.
We’re going OK. In 2000, renewable energy in the NEM was 4%. Now it’s >40%:
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?range=all&interval=half-year&view=discrete-time&group=Coal%2FGas%2FRenewables
You can’t have your cake and eat it.
Nath
As someone who went into bat for you a while back when you were banned from Poll Bludger, because I saw value in your contributions, I don’t think a post like that does you any favours at all mate.
—————————————————————
I only see value in Nath’s contribution when he is agreeing with me too.
“The falling cost of battery storage has made it very difficult for competing technologies, such as pumped hydro, to compete in the various capacity auctions in Australia, despite the promise of sizeable funding options in states such as South Australia.”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/watershed-moment-big-battery-storage-prices-hit-record-low-in-huge-china-auction/
This is the turning point.
Not much room for the “gas led recovery” loved by the LNP.
Hard to see many lenders prepared finance fossil fuel projects no matter what approvals are granted!
Entropy
I saw value in them because they were insightful, good humoured and knowledgeable. I see none of that in this latest effort. But each to his own I guess.
”Of these countries, only Chile and Norway are really relevant to us.”
Presumably because they are OECD countries.
Both of these countries would be far better endowed with hydro sources than we are.
P.S. Is Norway going to voluntarily shut down its oil exports?
“You can’t have your cake and eat it.”
OR maybe just using hyperbolic language such as carbon bomb is just the same old failed politics that doesn’t move the majority of Australians to give a damn, who are just trying to survive day by day, and want practical solutions that they can actually see that make a difference.
Bystandersays:
Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 4:17 pm
Entropy
I saw value in them because they were insightful, good humoured and knowledgeable. I see none of that in this latest effort. But each to his own I guess.
———————————————————-
OK boomer
The irony is that Biden established plants to make the things like batteries that would drive clean energy in Republican states, often deep red states like Utah and Indiana which will see job losses now. Biden’s theory was that locating these factories in Republican states would ensure their survival beyond his government.
How wrong he was.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-04/anthony-albanese-champions-australian-independence-/105497350
This is so Morrison-esque in media managed spin.
The US today is very different. It is a grotesque regime which we should be distancing ourselves from.
Let’s not debase ourselves out of laziness and timidity.
Albo has the opportunity to create a truly great legacy for himself and his Govt.
Let’s go Matilda’s !!
In good news, globally:
+ Solar generation has doubled every ~3 years since 2013.
+Battery energy storage system capacity has doubled every for the last four.
+ This year so far, is slightly cooler than last year:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
In bad news:
“Governments across the rich world continue to roll back policies to stop the planet from heating, while far-right parties that deny climate science lash out at environment rules even as disasters unfold. Their voters, while rarely climate deniers themselves, seem to tolerate their energetic attacks on environmental policy, if not support them.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/04/europe-heatwaves-failing-support-climate-action
This older article goes into more depth about how the AfD used backlash against climate policies to broaden their support:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/30/how-climate-policies-are-becoming-focus-for-far-right-attacks-in-germany
Nick @ #532 Saturday, July 5th, 2025 – 4:21 pm
And some people want their cake for free.
The UK putting a protest group on a terrorist list is a pathway to hell.
Chile does have good hydro, but they have also ramped up their solar in recent years:
https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?metric=pct_share&entity=Chile
“And some people want their cake for free.”
And some people always look at a glass half empty
Steve777says:
Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 3:53 pm
While Australia should be phasing out the burning off fossil fuels here, replacing it with renewable sources, it makes no sense to unilaterally shut down major exports as our Green colleagues are urging. We should only be phasing down our coal and gas exports in the context of agreements with a majority of other suppliers otherwise it would be nothing more than a massively expensive virtue signal that will nothing to cut global emissions. There’ll be all to many willing to fill in the gap we leave, just as there were with uranium. If enough of the rest of the world does their share, the fossil fuel market will contract as demand reduces, but we are not going to force the rest of the world into good behaviour.
_________________
The heroin dealers excuse.
sorry you didn’t like that contribution bystander but it was heartfelt. Of course I’m getting older myself so fuck me too.
Yeah I heard it again and again in the many “why don’t you do the right thing and get out of this business” conversations that I had with heroin dealers over the years.
@Nick
Agreed. Absolutely bleak that the UK has arrived at Orbanism on its own. All because people are fed up with daily images of bodybags sized for children, and people lined up for food, aurrounded by barbed wire and the “guards” using it as a firing range. I am praying that the house of lords sees the dark precedent this is and quashes it.
Come to think of it, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil have potential for being major producers of Solar Energy. Maybe we could look into working with them while Humpty Trumpty Land is gleefully destroying themselves?
”
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 4:26 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-04/anthony-albanese-champions-australian-independence-/105497350
This is so Morrison-esque in media managed spin.
The US today is very different. It is a grotesque regime which we should be distancing ourselves from.
Let’s not debase ourselves out of laziness and timidity.
Albo has the opportunity to create a truly great legacy for himself and his Govt.
”
Albanese is not a big legacy for himself guy.
Maybe Albanese legacy will be
1. Stopping the destructive LNP juggernaut in its tracks
2. Cementing Renewable energy use in Australia.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 5, 2025 at 4:26 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-04/anthony-albanese-champions-australian-independence-/105497350
This is so Morrison-esque in media managed spin…..
***********
We get it Rex.
You don’t like it when Albanese says things you don’t agree with.
And you don’t like it when Albanese says things you agree with.
Can we just take as read your “Albanese bad”opinion? It would save us all a lot of time.
Also the Australian Immigration Department should put Solar Energy experts as a priority if they haven’t already. I’m sure there’s plenty of people in the USA that would happily take that deal to move and work here.
And at the rate the UK is going, them too in 4 years.
Steve777
Presumably because they are OECD countries.
Yes, they are developed, industrialised economies.
Norway I would guess has plenty of hydro. Chile probably does in the south, but it is mostly due to the incredible investment in renewables, and making really good use of the Atacama for both solar and wind. It has been impressive to watch the development.
For Chile, they had to import energy as gas, which was expensive, and in the mid-2000s, Argentina started cutting gas supplies. Therefore the Chileans had a big incentive to secure their energy supplies.
Living in places like San Pedro de Atacama which suffered blackouts because of the lack of gas, it was just a big relief to see the renewables come on line.
That is my theory as to why the residents of Chile do not froth at the mouth at the thought of windmills, solar panels or transmission lines within their field if view.
No, of course not. If any government was silly enough to do that, Norwegians would immediately elect a new government who would continue the exports.
While it is useful to know where fuel comes from, it is on the countries burning fossil fuels to go through their own energy transition.
The transition has to be fought through the demand side, by rapidly increasing renewables.
Trying to cut the supply side will just lead to changes in government to those who will not limit the supply side
.