The first federal poll since the election is what will presumably be the resumption of the regular weekly Roy Morgan series. This accumulates poling conducted over the month since the election, encompassing 5128 respondents from May 5 to June 1. The result is strong for Labor even by the standards of post-election honeymoons, with a two-party preferred reading of 58.5-41.5, presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. This compares with what looks like being an election result of 55.3-44.7, based on the almost complete determination of the AEC. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 37% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 31% (31.8%), Greens 11.5% (12.2%) and One Nation 6% (6.4%). With its large sample, the accompanying release features breakdowns by state and age cohort.
Fess: “But never a wedding.”
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I’ll need to get a positive answer to a certain question before there can be any talk of a wedding. But I’m cautiously optimistic.
https://bsky.app/profile/gtconway.bsky.social/post/3lr7n2fbxj223
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4lx6nur5wstwoc4wtgj56kyu/bafkreihgjw6wu5yc3pylj7d77qyzluphoa4e7vqjmnoro3kgqde32zcvoe@jpeg
The above image is very off putting. This is how Trump treats his military.
Fess
I’ve already been sick for a week, and my GP said today, that it will probably take me another week or more to recover.
Especially to get the cough under control.
It’s been exhausting to say the least.
BK
Congratulations on your uncle being inducted!
meher:
I am sending hugely positive vibes!
Vic:
It is the worst apparently. One of the team had it 4 weeks ago and still can’t shake the cough. Get better soon!
BK
Just read Wiki of Ken Farmer sr.
Wow. A rich life for a worker’s son. Proving that nothing is impossible if you put mind to it.
Named by SAFL as ‘Bradman of football’. Wonderful. That is great honour.
Arky says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 3:12 pm
@MABWM:
I think you might need to get some help – this is genuine, not a sledge – as that level of despair ain’t healthy.
————————–
Thanks, genuinely, for your concern Arky, you are a good human. My mental health is fine.
I’m just making the observation that we have cooked the planet and hundreds of millions will die in the short to medium term. We did so in the pursuit of money and power.
The political disintegration of the USA is just the beginning.
As others have said, the next war will be fought with nukes (and drones), the one after that will be fought with clubs.
**** and yes – I meant Easter Island. Silly me.
But me? I’m fabulous I live an extraordinarily lucky life. I am, as the Kiwis would say – livin’ the dream.
Thanks Fess.
Victoria and D&M, RSV sounds terrible. I wish you both speedy recoveries.
To Mavis, Shellbell and other legal professionals
DC Bar Defeats Bondi’s Brother
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/9/2326832/-DC-Bar-Defeats-Bondi-s-Brother?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
BKsays:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 7:43 pm
Just now my dear uncle Ken was inducted as a Legend of the AFL Hall of Fame.
______________
That’s nothing. My uncle was on Australia’s Most Wanted in 1990.
Fess
Thanks!
Talking about Premiers and the Governor (and The Veiled Sceptre).
Then Queensland Premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, after Cabinet on Monday 23 November 1987 went up to see the Queensland Governor, Sir Walter Campbell, to advise he would like to reform his Ministry and that 5 current Ministers would not be in the new line up.
Campbell told Joh, to his surprise, that he needed the Ministers to resign their Commissions in writing.
Each of the 5 Ministers were summonsed to the Premiers’ Office at 10am the next morning (they had all been tipped off by then National Party President Sir Robert Sparkes). Each refused to resign. Mike Ahern told Joh if he was sacked watch the TV because in 15 minutes I’m going down to tell them you are trying to close the Fitzgerald Inquiry.
Later that day Joh went back to the Governor and advised he now only had three Ministers he wanted removed. Again Campbell said he needed them to resign their Commissions.
On Thursday 26 November 1987 the National Party caucus met (Joh didn’t show) and through a spill installed Mike Ahern as leader and therefore Premier elect.
Joh however refused to resign his Commission as Premier and Member of the Executive Council. He barricaded himself in his office. It took Russ Hinze in tears to bang on Johs’ door and tell Joh, through the keyhole, to come out as it was all over. That was on Friday 27 November.
Joh came out alright but kept his Commission and got driven back to his home in Kingaroy. Peter Beattie, who was then ALP State Secretary, then tells the story that that night he had a call from a businessman friendly to both sides of politics. Joh still acting as Premier would recall Parliament, take his group of National Party supporters and join with Labor and the Liberals to form a Government.
Beattie tells that he “couldn’t believe his ears” and was given a number to ring Joh at home. Joh said the deal was on but Beattie said point-blank it would only happen with an “equitable and fair electoral redistribution” before the next election before he would even present it before the Labor Caucus. Joh invited Peter to his property at Kingaroy to discuss the matter.
Beattie drove to Kingaroy that Saturday 28 November to meet the still Premier. They met in Beatties’ car, Peter in the front and Joh in the back.
In exchange for the ALP’s support Joh would give the Party more resources and staff, cabinet positions and drop some outstanding legal actions members of the ALP but refused to commit to fair and equitable electoral boundaries. Beattie then flatly rejected the offer and drove away. Joh in his desperation phoned Buckingham Palace and sought the intervention of the Queen. It didn’t happen and Joh was told to act on the advice of the Queensland Governor.
Thus on Tuesday 1 December 1987, Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen visited the Governor for the last time to resign his commission after 19 years as Premier.
The Governor acted accordingly and Mike Ahern became the new Premier, able to show that he commanded a majority on the floor of the House.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 8:43 pm
Latest from Dr Bonham on Tasmania. Agree Sprocket a humiliation for the Liberal Party.
“6:45 The Governor will not make an immediate decision. She is right to be exploring all options carefully even if as currently seems to be the case an election cannot be avoided. In particular she will need to hear from possible alternative Premiers, at the least including Dean Winter. The Governor will meet with Premier (for now) Rockliff again before the week is out.”
____________________________________________
I don’t know if it is a humiliation. The Governor is bound to explore whether she can commission an alternative government. If Rockliff thought otherwise, then he is an idiot. If not, then it is a media beat up where they don’t understand and don’t want to understand.
King O’Malley a few pages back: I don’t think there’s a reason to divide that data into two different graphs for Green HoR or Senate vote being higher. Just plot the lot (letting it cross the x-axis) and note the outliers. From the end of your second list:
(Sitting MPs marked with *.)
Every one of those seats had a high-profile independent (either MP or candidate) who would’ve been attractive to the Greens – apart from narrow misses in Blaxland and Forrest, all made the 2cp. Top of the list is Andrew Wilkie, who used to be a Green once upon a time. Then there’s an anti-salmon farming candidate who got endorsed by the Greens after their own candidate got S44’d. Every single sitting teal, plus Helen Haines and Andrew Gee, and the Muslim independents in Watson and Blaxland. All of those seats clearly had a lot of ind HoR / Green senate votes.
Ben Raue had an article a coupla weeks ago with the Fremantle booth results. Check the swings against the Greens in central Freo, compared with the vote for Kate Hulett. Clearly a fair bit of the Green vote can easily swap to a like-minded independent if one comes along.
Upnorth
Thanks for the recap of the end of Joe back in 1987. I was a young Qld public servant back then and I only heard the headline details.
Your description of the final scene between Russ and Joe reminds me of the ending of the Shawshank Redemption, when the police are closing in and the Warden is in his office.
That reminds me – whatever happened to Luke Shaw of Joh jury fame?
Socrates says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 8:45 pm
meher baba
“Yes, ok on the whole thanks. Just a bit old and decrepit. Also a bit sad because our wonderful 20 year old cat finally left us the other day.”
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My sympathies MB. We love our moggies too and they snuggle closer every winter. They know when you love them back.
______________________________________________
I’ve noticed over a lifetime of cat loving that the older they get the more sooky they become. Both endearing and frustrating, but mostly the former. We have a super sweet 14 year old now and she is both sooky and demanding in equal measure.
And yes, looking forward to meeting the people behind the posts, including yourself. I feel that I know many of the people coming, if only through their posts. As with many others who cannot come.
As for C@t, I suspect she has better things to do than be on PB at the moment – as opposed to less pleasant challenges. I look forward to meeting her – definitely someone who puts it all out there.
If Cameron Millner did indeed say that anyone who thought Kylea Tink was going to be re-elected in North Sydney didn’t know what they were talking about, then on that one he was probably right.
Its pretty clear from the results across the old parts of North Sydney that got moved into Bennelong, Bradfield and Warringah, that if North Sydney had not been abolished, than Labor would have romped it in.
*********************************************************************
You are persistently delusional on this subject, but even allowing for what you say to be true, I guarantee you Labor winning wasn’t what Millner had in mind.
***************************************************************************
Yes WB, obviously this dude – who I have never heard of – was not thinking of Labor winning North Sydney if it had remained. That’s my point – not one would have. And yet it would have been true, no matter how much Antony Green said it couldn’t happen. Antony almost chocked on his words on election night when he said Labor almost won Berowra.
If the AEC ever gets around to finishing the 2PP count in Bradfield, I will send you a list of the former North Sydney booths with this year’s 2PP figures and demonstrate that the total result must be well above 55% – possibly nearer 60%, and you can attempt to convince everyone why it wouldn’t have happened….
Socratessays:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 9:59 pm
Upnorth
Thanks for the recap of the end of Joe back in 1987. I was a young Qld public servant back then and I only heard the headline details.
Your description of the final scene between Russ and Joe reminds me of the ending of the Shawshank Redemption, when the police are closing in and the Warden is in his office.
That reminds me – whatever happened to Luke Shaw of Joh jury fame?
中华人民共和国
Soc last I heard Shaw had left Queensland for Victoria. His reputation had preceded him in Queensland and he couldn’t find gainful employment after he graduated.
I would love to have been a fly in the wall with Russ crying and yelling out to Joh. Very much Shawshank like. Beatties face lights up each time he tells the story.
Interesting stuff about the fall of Bjelke-Petersen. So much so that I’ve put “Three Crooked Kings” on my must-read list this winter.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 10:18 pm
Interesting stuff about the fall of Bjelke-Petersen. So much so that I’ve put “Three Crooked Kings” on my must-read list this winter.
中华人民共和国
Get the Trilogy cobber.
“Three Crooked Kings”, “Jacks and Jokers” and “All Fall Down”. Matthew Condon is a great writer.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #2470 Tuesday, June 10th, 2025 – 10:22 pm
Yep, got them ready on my Kindle.
Kirsdarke, Upnorth
Thanks for the tip on Condon. I’ll put those books on my wish list.
Observing from afar the horrors now occuring in the US, I can, sadly, only conclude that the difference between what is happening now in Los Angeles and what happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989 was the then existence of an old Chinese gentleman, carrying his shopping bags, who was prepared to stand defiantly before a column of tanks in defence of the rights of his fellow citizens.
Would that there be an American with the courage to metaphorically at least do the same.
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 10:31 pm
Yep, got them ready on my Kindle.
中华人民共和国
Good on you mate. You enjoy. Great read.
Best of all I know I can read it knowing the ending wound up like this.
Because … Labor would have run a distant third, like they did in Warringah and Bradfield, including the bits that coincide with the old North Sydney. Isn’t your point that they would have beaten Kylea Tink?
“Stand defiantly”? He said hello to the guys in the tank and then walked off. Literally no-one knows what he was or wasn’t “standing for” because no-one knows who he was. You’ve been sniffing too much CIA Propaganda.
I bet you still believe that so called “photo of hundreds of dead bodies” was actually dead bodies instead of a bunch of bikes on the ground and a few people lying down but obviously alive as they are looking in the air.
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 10:38 pm
Best of all I know I can read it knowing the ending wound up like this.
中华人民共和国
John Szczerbanik is interesting on that list mate. Albert was the only seat in the 1989 election that the Liberals directed preferences to Labor so Szczerbanik got up on Liberal preferences defeating Ivan Gibbs who had a whiff of corruption about him.
Szczerbanik was a nurse by trade and didn’t own a suit or tie or business shoes for that matter. He turned up to his first caucus in a pair of thongs. Parliament House security were nearly going to kick him out thinking he was some bloke off the streets.
He held the seat for two terms.
Upnorth: Do you know anything about “Amphoe Ko Samui, Thailand”?
Arky says:
Monday, June 9, 2025 at 11:52 pm
The thing about political polling is it tells you where you are. It doesn’t win or lose votes.
The furthest the Coalition can blame their polling is for not warning them sooner they were going off a cliff. Great, they know they’re going off a cliff. They already had a problem with policy backflips destroying their credibility, I’m not sure what else they could have done. The die was cast on their lousy policy platform and attitudes long before campaign polling began.
Also, does anyone buy that they did all those campaign policy backflips while thinking they were winning all along?
I certainly buy that they thought they weren’t losing as badly as they were. I can even buy that they might have avoided telling Dutton that he was embuggerated in Dickson in order to keep him focussed on the wider election campaign. But that they were winning? Nah. Even with Freshwater’s thumb on the scale. They never ran the campaign like a party that thought they were ahead.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Its point :- The Coalition were NEVER going to win at any time in the last 3 years.
Paragraph : I
Polling results may win votes as some people rethink their choice when they see a greater proportion of voters see things differently and some voters want to back a winner so they can skite to family and friends that, I voted for the party that won.
Paragraph : 2
I totally agree with the whole paragraph.
Paragraph : 3
Same.
Paragraph : 4
I agree but for one point.
Dutton knew he was highly likely to lose his seat but as you say in para. 2 “what else could they have
done”.
Final point :
I repeat, the Coalition were NEVER going to win at any time in the last three years, and they knew it and their polling knew it.
Vensays:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 9:10 pm
https://bsky.app/profile/gtconway.bsky.social/post/3lr7n2fbxj223
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4lx6nur5wstwoc4wtgj56kyu/bafkreihgjw6wu5yc3pylj7d77qyzluphoa4e7vqjmnoro3kgqde32zcvoe@jpeg
The above image is very off putting. This is how Trump treats his military.
___________________
Gavin Newsom has not been kindly received as of late from the … “further” left media.
But clearly he sees the opportunity to step up and shine, his “Giuliani ’01” moment. His “they are coming for you next” line clearly communicating to swing states.
Now, partisans be partisans, but it will be really interesting to see the “states rights” types react. Of couse the vas majority will at first be “lol, comi-fornia sucks”, bit will be interesting to see who cracks first
(interesting to see the opposite so far, 2nd-Ammendment “gun tubers” are atm telling their audience to just “trust Trump” in reaction to their audience hate on Trumps go slow on gun rights)
The Albonator says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 10:56 pm
Upnorth: Do you know anything about “Amphoe Ko Samui, Thailand”?
中华人民共和国
Yes yes. Koh Samui Island in the south. Beautiful Island and IMHO far better than Phuket which has been over run by Russians and Chinese.
Great beaches and wonderful Tucker. Don’t go now as it’s the Monsoon though. Word of warning Koh Samui is a bit “decentralised”. So getting around can be difficult. A taxi “mafia” operates there along with other tourist hotspots so fares are expensive (in Thai terms though not Australia!).
My tip for Koh Samui is to choose a nice resort and stay there. Get a car and driver for a day rate to see the place. Highly recommended if you come to Thailand.
It was bound to happen.
After receiving hundreds of spam mail from famous people like Joe or Jill Biden, Elon Musk, or philanthropist Bill Gates etc telling me I’ve been selected to receive millions of dollars in repatriation for Covid or for having lost money to various scammers from African countries, I have just now received one from our own Prime Minister Mr Anthony Norman Albanese who has ordered The Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock to deposit $12,000,000,000.00 (yes, 12 billion US dollars) into my bank account.
All I have to do is give my bank details and I’ll be rich.
Talk about having friends in high places.
I promise when I get the money I will share it equally with every PBer.
Yes yes. Koh Samui Island in the south. Beautiful Island and IMHO far better than Phuket which has been over run by Russians and Chinese.
Great beaches and wonderful Tucker. Don’t go now as it’s the Monsoon though. Word of warning Koh Samui is a bit “decentralised”. So getting around can be difficult. A taxi “mafia” operates there along with other tourist hotspots so fares are expensive (in Thai terms though not Australia!).
My tip for Koh Samui is to choose a nice resort and stay there. Get a car and driver for a day rate to see the place. Highly recommended if you come to Thailand.
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I’ve started seeing a lady who hails from there. She is in Adelaide often for business. Trying to find time to go back with her and visit her paradise…..I fear I might not be able to tear myself away if I go
Sky News is flogging the story about the rumours Q&A is being axed after 17 seasons.
It won’t be long before Insiders is given the chop as well.
Ah well, they had a good run but not as long as Four Corners which has reached its 64th year.
The Albonator says:
Tuesday, June 10, 2025 at 11:33 pm
Yes yes. Koh Samui Island in the south. Beautiful Island and IMHO far better than Phuket which has been over run by Russians and Chinese.
Great beaches and wonderful Tucker. Don’t go now as it’s the Monsoon though. Word of warning Koh Samui is a bit “decentralised”. So getting around can be difficult. A taxi “mafia” operates there along with other tourist hotspots so fares are expensive (in Thai terms though not Australia!).
My tip for Koh Samui is to choose a nice resort and stay there. Get a car and driver for a day rate to see the place. Highly recommended if you come to Thailand.
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I’ve started seeing a lady who hails from there. She is in Adelaide often for business. Trying to find time to go back with her and visit her paradise…..I fear I might not be able to tear myself away if I go
中华人民共和国
Oh Southern Thais are terrifically nice people and (unless taxi drivers) will treat you with the upmost respect as long as you do the same. Being humble goes a long way in Thailand. I think it’s wonderful cobber. Have your wits about you certainly but I’ve not regretted a day living here (except when my mates go crabbing and send me the pics).
If you do need a hand or advice I am happy for you to ask William my email address.
I was actually in the South the last few days. Got back to Bangkok this afternoon.
And the great thing about the South is that the Tucker is even more spicy than here on the Central Plains!
Thanks so much Mate. I might take you up on that offer. Although I have been to Thailand a few times….Bangkok, Phuket etc, I have never spent an extended time there. So I could be a sitting duck for scammers. Tho my newish girlfriend should keep me away from to much mischief
UK sanctions israeli ministers:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/10/uk/uk-sanctions-israel-ministers-smotrich-ben-gvir-intl
Breaking … With Australia
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xgk1ek19lo
“The Foreign Office added that “alongside partners Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway, the UK is clear that the rising violence and intimidation by Israeli settlers against Palestinian communities in the West Bank must stop”.”
So looks like a Commonwealth job (well, Norway is honorary Commonwealth).
***
I expect media and political frenzy tomorrow…
Official joint statement just dropped:
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/joint-statement-foreign-ministers-australia-canada-new-zealand-norway-and-united-kingdom-measures-targeting-itamar-ben-gvir-and-bezalel-smotrich
Upnorth: I’ve never been to Thailand, but I do enjoy a green curry sometimes – as long as there’s also some lassi on the side. (Different cuisine I know, but it puts out the fire the same way.)
Indonesian is more my thing – ayam opor (chook in coconut milk). Yum. Or rendang.
New thread.
I saw Victoria’s post today about how sick she has been with RSV and thought I’d better consider having the shot for it. I’ve since heard that it costs $300 and there is no rebate for it. Is that right?