Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Labor (open thread)

A large sample post-election poll confirms the obvious fact of Labor’s federal dominance.

The first federal poll since the election is what will presumably be the resumption of the regular weekly Roy Morgan series. This accumulates poling conducted over the month since the election, encompassing 5128 respondents from May 5 to June 1. The result is strong for Labor even by the standards of post-election honeymoons, with a two-party preferred reading of 58.5-41.5, presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. This compares with what looks like being an election result of 55.3-44.7, based on the almost complete determination of the AEC. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 37% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 31% (31.8%), Greens 11.5% (12.2%) and One Nation 6% (6.4%). With its large sample, the accompanying release features breakdowns by state and age cohort.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,492 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. At what point and for what reasons did enough of the Australian voters, make the the decision to disable the coalition from being competitive at the election.
    The change was quite dramatic over a relatively short period of time with the polling compilers not necessarily identifying the change.
    The behaviour of the remnant coalition since the election appears to justify the decision by many voters to avoid a now seemingly certain coalition victory and provide a result that would appear to banish the coalition for a number of electoral cycles.
    The exponential changes in energy technology advances seems to have shown the coalition to be completely unprepared and disorientated.
    The nuclear vision just didn’t register with a climate and environmentally aware electorate.
    Post election, many within the coalition are still blathering about the concepts of net zero, and whether the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine.
    Climate change denial and environmental misinformation are identifying the “hillbilly” culture still prevalent in much of Australia.
    The “fourth” industrial revolution is zooming ahead, providing exciting opportunities and monetary savings yet a large proportion of the Australian electorate remain unable to adjust.
    The anti renewable subsection of rural Australia is a worry.
    So too the relative success of PHON.
    The Greens as their stagnant voting numbers suggest are not electorally winning.
    The Albanese Labor team continue to be in a position of political ascendancy, juggling the demands of climate change, energy alternatives, the economy and a somewhat bewildered electorate.
    And doing so without denying the enormous challenges ahead.
    Australia appears to remain the lucky country!

  3. Morgan…gratifying. Though how the Reactionaries might still attract more than 2/5 votes remains a political mystery. They deserve less than half of that. The decay – the dissipation and fragmentation – of Labor-phobic support can be seen across the spectrum. One thing stands out above all: the heyday of the professional intransigent is long gone. Tony Abbott and Bob Brown will be feeling it.

  5. “Today, at 4:44 a.m., without any civilian casualties, the first explosive device was detonated,” the agency said in a statement, with accompanying video footage of the detonations. “The underwater support pillars were severely damaged at the seabed level — aided by the equivalent of 1,100 kg of TNT. As a result, the bridge is effectively in an emergency condition.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/03/russia-ukraine-crimea-bridge-blast-drones/

    And again, not a hospital or school in range. Weird how Russia is unable to avoid civilian casualities.

  8. The bromance is over.

    Elon Musk@elonmusk
    ·
    3h
    I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

    This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

    Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.

  10. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Crimea Bridge Hit by Explosion: https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-bridge-hit-explosion-2080254

    Record number of Russians support peace talks, end of war in Ukraine, poll shows: https://kyivindependent.com/record-number-of-russians-support-peace-talks-end-war-in-ukraine-since-february-2022-poll-shows/

    Trump Weighs New Russia Sanctions as Senate Vows to Move Ahead: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-weighs-new-russia-sanctions-senate-vows-move-ahead-2080549

    Dutch government collapses after Geert Wilders’ far-right party quits: https://www.politico.eu/article/geert-wilders-dutch-government-collapse/

    Poland’s New President Karol Nawrocki Signals Continued Support for Ukraine: https://united24media.com/latest-news/polands-new-president-karol-nawrocki-signals-continued-support-for-ukraine-8852

    Trump administration plans to move Greenland from U.S. European Command to Northern Command: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-administration-moving-greenland-u-s-european-command-northern-command/

    Hamas security services must stop targeting protesters in reprisal and respect freedom of peaceful assembly in Gaza: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/05/palestine-hamas-security-services-must-stop-targeting-protesters-in-reprisal-and-respect-freedom-of-peaceful-assembly-in-gaza/

    French police pulled dead woman and child off migrant boat and let people smugglers carry on to UK: https://www.lbc.co.uk/crime/pair-jailed-following-fatal-channel-small-boat-crossing/

    The Public Order Act is increasingly used as a blasphemy law to protect Islam from criticism. I challenged the Justice Secretary to support my Bill to stop this and ensure free speech. She continues to pretend we don’t have blasphemy laws in Britain. Labour are afraid: https://x.com/nj_timothy/status/1929875202814472590

    ‘Disgusting abomination’: Musk goes nuclear on Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/03/elon-musk-trump-bill-00382653

    Elon Musk’s Reign of Corruption Chronicled in Elizabeth Warren Report: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/elon-musk-corruption-elizabeth-warren-report-1235353085/

    Musk’s DOGE Goons Trashed Office and Left Drugs Behind: https://www.thedailybeast.com/musks-doge-goons-trashed-office-and-left-drugs-behind/

    Trump Loses It at Rand Paul as GOP Budget Bill Seems Doomed in Senate: https://newrepublic.com/post/196040/trump-rand-paul-republican-budget-bill-deficit

    Florida Bridge Displays Pride Colors in Defiance of Ron DeSantis: https://www.newsweek.com/florida-bridge-jacksonville-lit-rainbow-colors-pride-month-defying-ron-desantis-2080200

    New Federal Employees Must Now Write Essays Praising Trump’s Policies: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-federal-employees-merit-hiring-plan-2080139

    Trump Is Melting Down in Private at ‘Weak’ Amy Coney Barrett: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-melts-down-over-amy-coney-barrett-not-backing-him/

    Democrats Will Hand Out Free Tacos to Mock Trump: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/06/taco-truck-donald-trump-always-chickens-out/

    Trump asks Congress to wipe out funding for public broadcasting: https://www.npr.org/2025/06/03/nx-s1-5418080/pbs-npr-trump-rescission-public-broadcasting

    US man charged for framing immigrant in fake plot to kill Trump: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/02/letter-threatening-trump-fake-plot

  12. Fess, Abetz now holds a state lowerhouse seat. He also heads the Christian right faction in the Tas Libs who currently dont have a party room majority.

  14. Mr Albanese said Senator Cox’s decision was was “not surprising, given that the Greens have lost their way”. However, he gave her no guarantees about her future within Labor. “Dorinda Cox’s term is up at the end of this term, and she will have to, if she is preselected through ALP processes, put herself forward for election,” he told reporters in Perth.
    Labor veterans Sue Lines and Glenn Sterle are also up for re-election in 2028. The party typically wins two Senate seats in WA. After Fatima Payman quit Labor last year, Mr Albanese said she had been elected primarily by people voting above the line for Labor, not on a personal vote. The implication was she should quit Parliament and let the seat return to Labor.
    There’s a similar view emerging from that this would be the honourable thing for Senator Cox to do if she no longer wanted to be part of the Greens, but an acknowledgement within the party that this rarely happens.
    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/anthony-albanese-offers-no-preselection-guarantee-to-new-labor-senator-dorinda-cox-c-18908180

  15. Morning all. Thanks William for the lead in article on Morgan. Hard to argue the trend given the large sample. Thanks Holden Hillbilly for the international news.

    To me it highlights the large amount of disinformation in the Ukraine war that Ukraine found it necessary in both the recent Kerch Bridge and Airfield / bomber attacks to video the attacks and release the video at the same time as news of the attacks. Even then Russian sources still deny aspects of both incidents.

    From an engineering perspective any bridge that has has 1100kg of explosives detonated around the foundations is at least weakened. The damage being underwater will lead to further corrosion of the reinforcing steel and weakening of the structure. Its been a very successful week for Ukraine special forces.

  16. “Ukraine hits bridge linking Crimea to Russia with underwater explosives:
    Operation ‘severely damaged’ base of Crimean bridge, opened by Putin in 2018, Kyiv’s SBU security service says”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/03/ukraine-hits-bridge-linking-crimea-to-russia-with-underwater-explosives

    Lt Gen Vasyl Maliuk, of the SBU, who supervised the latest operation, described the bridge as “an absolutely legitimate target, especially considering that the enemy used it as a logistical artery to supply its troops”.

    He added: “Crimea is Ukraine, and any manifestations of occupation will receive our tough response.”

    That is right. Crimea is Ukraine. Any Russians (indeed, anyone of any nationality) there without the permission of the Ukrainian Government have no right to be there.

  17. Former Tea Party Republican Congressman @WalshFreedom announces he has joined the Democratic Party: “I’m becoming a Democrat because I’m pissed off. I’m pissed off at the ignorant, lying madman in the White House who’s using his position to only enrich himself and his fat cat friends…I’m pissed off that he and his enablers have lied repeatedly to his voters year after year, and these good folks who’ve been lied to are gonna feel real pain—and Trump and his GOP enablers don’t give a damn.”

  19. South Korea goes left as Poland goes right:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_South_Korean_presidential_election

    Overall an unsurprising result given former Prez Yoon’s Adventures In Martial Law, but there are some interesting aspects. Of note to the psephologists among us is the incredibly stark east-west divide in the geographic distribution of votes; on a typical north-oriented map this quite literally, and hilariously, results in the left winning on the left and the right winning on the right. I know little about South Korean domestic politics but I am going to guess that there are machine-politics aspects to this which do not strictly map to the conservative-liberal political spectrum. Forget North and South Korea; the new rage is the battle between East and West Korea!

  21. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 7:26 am
    And yet only 8% of the Crimean population identifies as ethnically Ukrainian
    – – – – – – – – – – – –
    I’m ambivalent on the bigger question, given that it was given by the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954. 60 years isn’t that long a time to be claiming “historically…”

    But current demographics are a remarkably stupid statistic to deploy to support one or other side of that question, given that the area has been repeatedly ethnically cleansed over its history.

    200 years ago, the area was >90% Crimean Tartar. The last round of ethnic cleasing, post WW2, when ~200,000 were deported to Uzbekistan made sure there were none left in Crimea. Something over 100,000 moved back from Uzbekistan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But if one was to argue “it’s not Tartar because only 5% identify as such” would show an equal ignorance of its troubled history.

    Note – in the table below, the last column is the census taken *after* the Russian annexation. Not surprisingly, Ukraine disputes the accuracy of that data. Even if accurate, it might reflect a lot of ethnic Ukrainians getting out of Dodge when the Russians rolled in – FWIW, I know one who did.

  22. Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 7:26 am
    And yet only 8% of the Crimean population identifies as ethnically Ukrainian

    _________

    Pre or post annexation, OC?

  24. Rex,

    This is another example of your dishonesty with anything to do with political parties you dislike.

    “Dealt with appropriately” includes “The process is ongoing”.

    If he meant “Has been resolved”, he would have said that. He didn’t.

    But you went the smear anyway. It’s who you are. It’s what you do.

  25. @Griff

    Also, pre- or post-deportations and introductions of new people ?

    There’s been a lot of moving people loyal to Moscow into Crimea since 2014.

    Also, did people notice the recent damage to the bridge ?

    It’s going to be hard to resupply Crimea without the railroad.

  26. Also, did anyone stop to consider that OC was straight up repeating Orc propaganda like someone who doesn’t closely follow this situation?

  27. Omar Comin’says:
    Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 8:07 am
    Also, did anyone stop to consider that OC was straight up repeating Orc propaganda
    – – – – – – – – – –
    Of course. My reply, at least, was for people playing along at home. I’m not stupid enough to think it would pursuade the other OC.

  30. First of two stories which caught my eye.

    Detailed science based story on the collapse of insect populations. Probably the hidden aspect of climate change, and the direct impact on bird populations. As insects are one of the primary vectors for plant pollination the downstream outcomes are appalling for everything on the planet.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/03/climate-species-collapse-ecology-insects-nature-reserves-aoe

  32. Peak Ukrainian was about 26% in the 1970s and occurred after Kruschev made the arbitrary decision to transfer it from Russian SSF to Ukrainian SSR. No doubt at the time he believed that, for the New Soviet Man, questions of ethnicity were of historical interest only.
    However, my point is, that MacArthur’s (however now called) point that Any Russians (indeed, anyone of any nationality) there without the permission of the Ukrainian Government have no right to be there. would be offensive to any Russian living in Crimea.

  35. Oakeshott Country where you wrote ” after Kruschev made the arbitrary decision to transfer it from Russian SSF” You seem to have left out “According to discredited orc propaganda narratives which I have made the arbitrary decision to echo here…or was it arbitrary”

  36. The SBU attack on the Kerch Bridge seems to be another very well planned operation that will have severely damaged the underwater piling structure of the bridge supports. Well done, Ukraine.

  37. As others have noted, the indigenous population of Crimea (the Crimean Tatars) were largely ethnically cleansed during the Soviet era and most were expelled to Siberia. Also during the Soviet era, many people (including a large % of Ukrainians) were heavily russified.

    The remaining Crimean Tatars in Crimea are very anti-Russia and alledgedly there are sleeper cells ready to set off terrorist attacks against the Russian militarey if it looks like Ukraine may have a shot at retaking Crimea.

  38. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 8:35 am
    Any Russians there without the permission of the Ukrainian Government have no right to be there. would be offensive to any Russian living in Crimea

    _______________________

    Good.

  39. Wait, Kruschev didn’t transfer Crimea from Russia SSF to Ukraine SSR in 1954? I really have been sucked in by orc (how offensive is that) propaganda.

  40. The fact that the WA Greens still had an internal inquiry under way into the senator undercuts the prime minister’s claim that the matter had been examined and dealt with.
    _____________________
    Lying c…

  42. “Trade union says even with 3.5% rise, new minimum wage still not ‘livable’

    Sally McManus, secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, said the body still believes there’s “more catch-up to do” for lower-wage workers after it announced a 3.5% increase to the minimum wage yesterday. While the new rate will be $24.95 an hour, she said for a full-time worker it’s still “not enough to live on”. McManus told Radio National Breakfast:”

  43. 8m ago
    08.52 AEST
    Greens to prioritise women’s safety in next parliament

    Greens leader Larissa Waters has announced the party’s priorities in the next parliament, saying she will focus on women’s safety and women’s policy across health, housing and workplace relations.

    Waters will also leverage her time as an environmental lawyer to focus on the party’s climate and energy policies. She will also take over the Greens’ First Nations portfolio after the departure of senator Dorinda Cox, who defected to Labor this week. Waters said in a statement:

    “This parliament could achieve real progress: climate and environment action, dental into Medicare, free childcare, and meaningful action on the housing crisis. With the Greens being in sole balance of power, there is no excuse now for Labor to resist real reform to help people and nature.
    Women’s safety and equality will be a priority of my leadership, as will acting on the climate and environment crisis plus the housing and cost of living crises people are facing.“
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jun/04/australia-news-live-union-chief-minimum-victorian-police-dancing-burglar-dorinda-cox-anthony-albanese-sally-mcmanus-cost-of-living
    __________________

    Waters is a good choice as leader by the Greens.

  45. Ed Husic wont stay silent.
    ——-

    Labor’s freedom in numbers is a double-edged sword on Gaza and Israel

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-04/politics-labor-ed-husic-gaza-greens-dorinda-cox/105366044

    “There is also pressure within Labor’s grassroots membership for the government to impose sanctions on Israeli individuals and groups, while former foreign ministers Gareth Evans and Bob Carr have also endorsed sanctions.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has previously said Australia is not a major player in the Middle East.

    But the impact of the war in Gaza is being felt acutely by people in Australia.

    Incidents of antisemitism and Islamophobia have risen, and Australians have also watched in horror as family members have been displaced or killed in the conflict.
    :::
    And while Labor had a sweeping election victory, if you look under the hood of the results in western Sydney seats like Blaxland and Watson — where there are high concentrations of Arab-Australians — Labor’s primary vote was down.”

  46. @Mostly Interrested

    “The outcome? Might not be an election, might end up with Premier Eric Abetz.”

    It’d be an interesting decision by the Governor to ask Mr Abetz to form a government, when he was part of the cabinet of the Premier who the House had just lost confidence in.

    At minimum, for this to happen I’d expect Mr Abetz would need letters from those independants who just voted for the motion of No Confidence saying they had confidence in an Abetz ministry.

  47. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-federal-employees-merit-hiring-plan-2080139, who says Hancock Prospecting’s TFB Gina Rinehart doesn’t wield influence across Anglosaxony?

    Meanwhile in continental Europe, from Scandinavia to Romania, the populist right is on the move, https://www.politico.eu/article/geert-wilders-dutch-government-collapse/, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/3/dutch-coalition-government-in-crisis-after-far-right-wilders-pulls-support, https://nos.nl/collectie/13996/artikel/2569873-wilders-out-zo-berichten-buitenlandse-media-over-de-val-van-het-kabinet, Wilders pulled the plug, from OSF, certainly hope ‘Denial to Euphrates River Albo …’ isn’t taking notes over lack of transparency: “Met de val van Kabinet-[Dick ‘yup really …’] Schoof vandaag is het een goed moment om te evalueren in hoeverre de gedane beloften in het kader van transparantie door het kabinet (niet) zijn waargemaakt. Dit artikel (https://www.trouw.nl/politiek/het-jaar-van-wilders-van-trots-staatsman-tot-ontevreden-coalitieleider~b4d888c8/, described as true to principles) van Trouw helpt daar een handje bij.
    Nieuwe ambtsberichten over Jemen en Eritrea ontbreken. Al tientallen jaren zijn adviezen over de veiligheid in landen waar asielzoekers vandaan komen openbaar, maar onder kabinet-Schoof blijven ze voortaan geheim. NOS schreef er een artikel over.
    Airwars en PAX publiceren het eerste openbare dashboard om het beleid en de praktijk van staten met betrekking tot de bescherming van burgers tegen eigen militaire acties te monitoren.”

  49. Guardian headline – “Labor may team up with Coalition to pass $3m superannuation accounts tax legislation”

    Guardian article text – “Labor is expected to pass the changes with the support of the Greens, once the minor party has the sole balance of power in the Senate after 1 July.”

    Not for the first time I think the Guardian should fire their headlines sub-editor.

  50. Ian Whitchurchsays:
    Wednesday, June 4, 2025 at 9:06 am
    @Mostly Interrested

    “The outcome? Might not be an election, might end up with Premier Eric Abetz.”

    It’d be an interesting decision by the Governor to ask Mr Abetz to form a government, when he was part of the cabinet of the Premier who the House had just lost confidence in.

    At minimum, for this to happen I’d expect Mr Abetz would need letters from those independants who just voted for the motion of No Confidence saying they had confidence in an Abetz ministry.

    In no way is this an endorsement of Abetz, but he was just recently shown by some poll or other to be considered the most competent and able minister in the current state Lib government. That however doesnt really take into account his extremely conservative views on how society should be shaped.

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