Federal election plus three-and-a-half weeks (open thread)

Some post-election polling on motivation and timing of vote choice, a Labor Senate vacancy filled in Tasmania, and talk already of a looming federal by-election.

With Labor’s win confirmed yesterday in Calwell, Labor can lay claim to 94 seats in the House of Representatives, shattering its previous record of 86 at the 1987 election. In seat terms, the only result that bears comparison for Labor is the wartime election of 1943, when Labor under John Curtin won 49 in what was them a chamber of 75 seats. As covered on the dedicated late counting thread, the only seat that remains seriously in doubt is Bradfield, where the Liberals hold a 14-vote lead over the independent in the early stages of a recount – a partial recount begins today in Goldstein, though something fairly extraordinary would have to turn up to overturn the 260-vote Liberal lead. If nothing changes from here, the Liberals will have 29 seats, the Nationals nine, independents nine, and the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance one each.

Some further random points of note:

• JWS Research has produced a “post-federal election survey report” along the same lines of a similar effort after the 2022 election, but has been sparing with details thus far. The Financial Review reports it found 49% of Labor voters identified a favourable view of the party as the main motivation for their choice, followed by 23% for the leader, 18% for policies or issues and 7% for the local candidate. Among Coalition voters, 56% named the party, 20% policies or issues, 13% the local candidate and only 9% the leader. The pollster further relates a finding that 16% decided on the day they voted and another 39% during the campaign period, which didn’t differ greatly from the 2022 results. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Wednesday in the week after the election from a sample of 1000.

• Josh Dolega, an officer at the Australian Taxation Office in Burnie and organiser with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union, has been preselected to fill the Labor Tasmanian Senate vacancy created by Anne Urquhart’s successful move to the lower house seat of Braddon. Sue Bailey of The Mercury reports the field also included Unions Tasmania secretary Jessica Munday, Meander Valley councillor Ben Dudman, former party state secretary Stuart Benson, Australian Education Union state president David Genford, and Burnie councillor and disabilities worker Chris Lynch. Dolega has a distinctly low profile, but had backing from Urquhart and her power base in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.

• By way of refuting suggestions that Labor’s low primary vote raised questions about Labor’s legitimacy or mandate, national secretary Paul Erickson noted in his National Press Club address last week that the party recorded a higher vote in the Senate than the House of Representatives, which he attributed to tactical voting in the lower house. While the distinction was fine – Labor recorded 34.6% of the vote in the House and 35.1% in the Senate – the last occasion I can identify where the two were matched at concurrent elections was in 1958.

• On the subject of Paul Erickson, Nine Newspapers reports on suggestions he could contest a by-election for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs should Mark Dreyfus react to his dumping as Attorney-General by quitting politics, the odds on which would seem rather short.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 thoughts on “Federal election plus three-and-a-half weeks (open thread)”

Comments Page 51 of 54
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  2. Pi

    GE: “their raison d’être is to represent a minority ”

    I thought their “raison d’être” was to represent Australians?

    Yes! They represent the minority of Australians who agree with them and vote for them. They obviously don’t represent you, nor do they want to.

  3. BW: I see that the Greens are back to their core business

    The University of Sydney’s vice-chancellor, Mark Scott, on Monday confirmed staff and students would be banned from holding banners on campus without prior permission

    BW can you pretend this university is in Hong Kong instead of Sydney so we can have a worthy spray?

  4. Nick @ #2500 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 3:36 pm

    Im not sure Putin would ever want to stop the war, because as soon as it does he will have a very angry population to deal with including a massive amount of battle scarred veterans, so it will go on, but I don’t think this will ever be a “win” for Putin or Russia in general.

    Good post Nick and I particularly liked how you made your point and didn’t add a paragraph of unrelated Kremlin talking points at the end.

  6. A group of RMI researchers produce an excellent substack on the energy transition. They argue that most analysts are underestimating the trend because they are modelling linear growth in electrotechnology when it is clearly exponential growth (an s-curve). Here is an extract from their latest post:

    “Today, the world invests twice as much in new energy technologies as it does in fossil fuels. In 2024 alone, the increase in solar generation matched the entire electricity demand of Germany. In China, nearly half of all new car sales are electric. Electrotech is accelerating so quickly that China may have already hit peak fossil fuel demand this year—and with China, so too will the world. You wouldn’t know it from most headlines.”

    https://electrotechrevolution.substack.com/p/rewiring-the-energy-debate

  7. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 3:21 pm
    Entropy @ #2476 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 2:16 pm

    This could probably defeat a fleet of drones. A drone would not be able to carry enough shielding to protect against it and still fly.
    ============================================================

    Except you don’t need physical shielding to block EM waves. You can electrify a thin metal shield on the drone to create a electrical magnetic field around the drone. If this is done in a certain way it could block an EM pulse.

    Sure. You could put your drones in a Faraday cage. They’d be perfectly safe. Of course, they might have trouble flying.
    ===========================================================

    We live in the equivalent of geomagnetic faraday cage. Which blocks the solar winds and puts on a lights show when it does it. Setting up an outward electromagnetic field around a drone should not stop it from flying. Though to save energy they only need to be on as they approach their target.

  8. “Climate and energy minister Chris Bowen is drowning in expansive advice on what the Albanese government should do with its thumping majority.

    But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s innate caution suggests they’re not going to dramatically expand their climate and energy transition platform.

    The good news is they don’t need to.

    They’ve already promised to deliver: 2030 targets for 82 per cent renewable energy in the grid and 43 per cent emissions reduction; a successful 32 gigawatt Capacity Investment Scheme; annual 4.9 per cent cuts in industrial emissions under the Safeguard Mechanism; a huge boost to home, commercial and industrial electrification with $7.7 billion of batteries; emission cuts for passenger vehicles and light trucks under the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard; federal environmental reforms; a “green energy superpower”; and an ambitious 2035 emissions target.”

    https://theenergy.co/article/bowens-chance-to-electrify-and-put-the-weights-on-the-states

  9. @Epstein:
    “Yes! They represent the minority of Australians who agree with them and vote for them. They obviously don’t represent you, nor do they want to.”

    I don’t think the Greens want you purporting to speak for them about who they represent or want to represent.

    And not only because you insist on calling yourself something not a million miles away from being Peffrey Pepstein.

  10. ‘Geoffrey Epstein says:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 3:53 pm

    BW: I see that the Greens are back to their core business

    The University of Sydney’s vice-chancellor, Mark Scott, on Monday confirmed staff and students would be banned from holding banners on campus without prior permission

    BW can you pretend this university is in Hong Kong instead of Sydney so we can have a worthy spray?’
    =======================
    Oh! Certainly. Just for you.

    In Hong Kong democracy protestors are being held in indefinite detention pending a trial. Many of them were bashed when they were arrested.

    They are being held incommunicado. Their lawyers may, or may not, have access to them.

    Regardless, their lawyers are highly likely to be harassed by the authorities.

    They may eventually get a trial. The charges do not need to be cooked up. It is illegal to ‘provoke a quarrel’ or ‘to make trouble’. They put their heads up and they provoked a quarrel. They made trouble.

    They may not get a trial at all. The random or arbitrary nature of this is reinforced by the fact that the authorities rarely give a reason for anything. OTOH, if they DO give a reason it is just as likely to be spurious.

    One excellent thing about getting a trial is that you have not been disappeared. You are still alive.

    If the perps do get a trial, it will be held in camera.

    The outcome of the trial is not in doubt. No one is ever found not guilty in such trials.

    So the trial will result in a conviction and in a further term of incarceration. The prison conditions, particularly for politicals, are such that their physical health will likely suffer. A significant number die. Suicide, apparently. It is almost guaranteed that they will suffer psychologically because of not knowing what their future holds.

    When the perps are eventually released they will have a black mark on their files and they will have zero career prospects. Their every move and their every utterance will be monitored. The Chinese Government has a file on everyone, but you knew that already. If the perp continue sto kick up their family will be made to suffer as well.

    If Xi gets seriously pissed off they will get a bullet to the back of the head. Their family will get sent a bill for the bullet.

    Thank you for asking. Enjoy.

  12. Good God… Trump and Vance really look like a couple of putzes now, don’t they, with their “24 hours to end the war”, the “You have no cards” rubbish, and demanding a big “Thank you” from Zelensky… for what? Siding with Putin? Looting Ukraine’s mineral wealth? Abandoning an ally?

    Seeing as Zelensky has been militarily able to achieve in three years, much of it in one single operation using inexpensive plastic drones, what Washington was unable to pull off with dozens of aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, thousands of billion dollar planes, fleets of ICBMs, armies of tanks, the CIA and the efforts of millions of service people over 45 years of Cold War and a further 35 years after that – to wit, the neutralisation of a million Russian service people, the decimation of its Black Sea fleet, the decapitation of its strategic bomber command, and the virtual crippling of Russia’s ability to victoriously fight a serious European war – just who owes WHO a “Thank you”?

  13. GE: “They represent the minority of Australians who agree with them”

    You lack the insight to grasp how divisive that statement is. It perfectly personifies what people hate about greens politicking. No dude. The goal of a politician is to represent everyone even if they didn’t vote for you.

  14. BB

    The US has never had a direct hot war with Russia for which we should all feel grateful.

    I am not sure why you keep setting up a false comparison with Ukraine which IS in a hot war with Russia.

  18. BW,

    Irrespective of who’s who in the “hot war” business, Ukraine under Zelensky has been the one to get the runs on the board, contributing greatly to the military crippling of Russia, Europe’s perennial enemy and constant territorial antagonist, on land, at sea, and now in the air. Ukraine has done the US and Europe an absolutely massive favour.

    At the same time Trump and his gang have failed every test of leadership, even the supposedly easy ones they set for themselves: from rapidly ending the war to even turning up at their own peace conference.

  19. I have no problem with the expulsion of students who made the workplace the university unsafe in a copycat protest of the American ones that was not going to diddle squat for the situation.

    However, the banner ban is a bit of overkill and is a limitation on freedom of speech. Protesting on the lawns of the University is ok. I wonder how far the campus security would take it – will the “We love Cupcakes” banner be removed for a lack of pre-approval?

  22. It staggers me that the mighty Russian Federation Armed Forces has been unable to conquer that ‘superpower of handicrafts’ Ukraine in 1195 days (ie, over 3 years and 3 months). In the the last half of this period, they’ve ‘conquered’ less than 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory, while losing over 700,ooo casualties.

    Russia didn’t need this war. Russia wanted this war, all on its own. Nobody else did. What a waste.

  25. “Good post Nick and I particularly liked how you made your point and didn’t add a paragraph of unrelated Kremlin talking points at the end.”

    I prefer underdogs, not imperialist nations with command and conquer fantasies.

  26. I had a sense that Morgan would get back into the game sooner than the rest.
    If the results are to be believed Ley has a lot of work to do….

  28. Been There, Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 4:42 pm

    Latest Morgan Poll

    ALP grows two-party preferred lead in May: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, ANZ-Roy Morgan

    Great result, but the writs from the election just gone haven’t even been returned yet! What is Roy Morgan thinking?

  30. Nick, Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 4:42 pm:

    I prefer underdogs, not imperialist nations with command and conquer fantasies.

    Unity ticket with you there.

  31. Alpha Zerosays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 4:48 pm
    Wasn’t it 57% after the last election as a peak?? – oh dear!
    ========================================================

    If Lars comes back. He still has peak Albo to look forward to.

  32. Roy Morgan federal polling by state, gender and age:

    NSW: 59.0/41.0 ALP (+3.5)
    VIC: 59.5/40.5 ALP (+3.0)
    QLD: 52.5/47.5 ALP (+3.1)
    WA: 58.5/41.5 ALP (+2.7)
    SA: 58.5/41.5 ALP (-0.7)
    TAS: 70.5/29.5 ALP (+7.2)

    Women: 61.0/39.0 ALP
    Men: 55.5/44.5 ALP

    18-34: 70.0/30.0 ALP
    35-49: 62.5/37.5 ALP
    50-64: 53.0/47.0 ALP
    65+: 48.5/51.5 LNP

  33. My purely anecdotal recollection is that governments, whether elected for the first time or re-elected, usually get a post-election polling boost. Those few percent of voters who are not strong pro or anti either major party tend to want the new government to do well and show support in the opinion polls that come soon after.

    Not quite the same thing but illustrative I believe, but when Jackie Kelly’s win in Lindsay in 1996 was voided for constitutional reasons, she won a bigger majority only a few months later.

    Edited to note that the recent shenanigans in the Coalition would not have a positive effect on their public standing (how negative depends on who is paying attention).

  40. That’s a beautiful set of numbers.

    I’m looking forward to throwing them in to my early election forecast calculator to see what this does to the LNP’s chances of winning 3 elections from now.

  42. I assume that those figures reflect the demotion of Husic and Dreyfus, the bizarre behaviour of the Coalition partners, the failure of the Greens to do realistic self-reflection, and the storm of outrage about the north-west shelf decision.

  43. Kisdarke says:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 4:56 pm
    Roy Morgan federal polling by state, gender and age:

    NSW: 59.0/41.0 ALP (+3.5)
    VIC: 59.5/40.5 ALP (+3.0)
    QLD: 52.5/47.5 ALP (+3.1)
    WA: 58.5/41.5 ALP (+2.7)
    SA: 58.5/41.5 ALP (-0.7)
    TAS: 70.5/29.5 ALP (+7.2)

    Women: 61.0/39.0 ALP
    Men: 55.5/44.5 ALP

    18-34: 70.0/30.0 ALP
    35-49: 62.5/37.5 ALP
    50-64: 53.0/47.0 ALP
    65+: 48.5/51.5 LNP
    ‐————————

    So the only age group the LNP is in the green is with the Boomers.

    That has been an issue for a decade but is now at crisis point.

  44. So from these numbers, Labor would gain roughly another 10 seats, most likely breaking 100.

    Very unlikely that it’ll be like that in 2028, but you never know, if the Coalition spends the next 3 years behaving as they have in the past month then that’s what we could see.

  45. The nationals are killing the liberals. How much more can they take? Who’s the first lib that goes independent? So few remain…

  46. @BS Fairman:
    “I have no problem with the expulsion of students who made the workplace the university unsafe in a copycat protest of the American ones that was not going to diddle squat for the situation.

    However, the banner ban is a bit of overkill and is a limitation on freedom of speech. Protesting on the lawns of the University is ok. I wonder how far the campus security would take it – will the “We love Cupcakes” banner be removed for a lack of pre-approval?”

    I tend to think the expulsion is overkill and the universities have generally overcooked this. The restrictions on banners etc now being talked about are definitely overkill. Student protest is traditional. As long as there’s no violence or intimidation, play on, and the university ought to put up with it. To the extent some students went overboard and broke into offices and intimidated staff in their workplace and damaged property, no issues with punishment, just think expulsion for a first offence is a bit much. No time however for the people going “they were persecuted for their beliefs” without acknowledging the actual facts; hundreds, maybe thousands of students protested without incident, those disciplined were not disciplined for advocating for their beliefs.

  49. @BK: The Liberal Part has done the demographically equivalent thing to digging themselves neck deep into a compost bin and then declaring that they really need to go a foot lower next time.

  50. ”
    newy boysays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 5:13 pm
    Not seeing much ‘buyer’s remorse’ in those Morgan figures…
    ”

    Oh, Pocock will be soooooo disappointed.

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