Federal election plus three-and-a-half weeks (open thread)

Some post-election polling on motivation and timing of vote choice, a Labor Senate vacancy filled in Tasmania, and talk already of a looming federal by-election.

With Labor’s win confirmed yesterday in Calwell, Labor can lay claim to 94 seats in the House of Representatives, shattering its previous record of 86 at the 1987 election. In seat terms, the only result that bears comparison for Labor is the wartime election of 1943, when Labor under John Curtin won 49 in what was them a chamber of 75 seats. As covered on the dedicated late counting thread, the only seat that remains seriously in doubt is Bradfield, where the Liberals hold a 14-vote lead over the independent in the early stages of a recount – a partial recount begins today in Goldstein, though something fairly extraordinary would have to turn up to overturn the 260-vote Liberal lead. If nothing changes from here, the Liberals will have 29 seats, the Nationals nine, independents nine, and the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance one each.

Some further random points of note:

• JWS Research has produced a “post-federal election survey report” along the same lines of a similar effort after the 2022 election, but has been sparing with details thus far. The Financial Review reports it found 49% of Labor voters identified a favourable view of the party as the main motivation for their choice, followed by 23% for the leader, 18% for policies or issues and 7% for the local candidate. Among Coalition voters, 56% named the party, 20% policies or issues, 13% the local candidate and only 9% the leader. The pollster further relates a finding that 16% decided on the day they voted and another 39% during the campaign period, which didn’t differ greatly from the 2022 results. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Wednesday in the week after the election from a sample of 1000.

• Josh Dolega, an officer at the Australian Taxation Office in Burnie and organiser with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union, has been preselected to fill the Labor Tasmanian Senate vacancy created by Anne Urquhart’s successful move to the lower house seat of Braddon. Sue Bailey of The Mercury reports the field also included Unions Tasmania secretary Jessica Munday, Meander Valley councillor Ben Dudman, former party state secretary Stuart Benson, Australian Education Union state president David Genford, and Burnie councillor and disabilities worker Chris Lynch. Dolega has a distinctly low profile, but had backing from Urquhart and her power base in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.

• By way of refuting suggestions that Labor’s low primary vote raised questions about Labor’s legitimacy or mandate, national secretary Paul Erickson noted in his National Press Club address last week that the party recorded a higher vote in the Senate than the House of Representatives, which he attributed to tactical voting in the lower house. While the distinction was fine – Labor recorded 34.6% of the vote in the House and 35.1% in the Senate – the last occasion I can identify where the two were matched at concurrent elections was in 1958.

• On the subject of Paul Erickson, Nine Newspapers reports on suggestions he could contest a by-election for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs should Mark Dreyfus react to his dumping as Attorney-General by quitting politics, the odds on which would seem rather short.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 thoughts on “Federal election plus three-and-a-half weeks (open thread)”

Comments Page 50 of 54
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  1. It’s worth recognising that the ALP has now had 130 years experience of managing entrists, single issue driven participants and personal ambition. It has developed over time a robust system for managing both personal and political conflict and an internal power sharing system based on the principle of proportionality, leavened by a recognition of individual talents.

    130 years! That means that at the time of the Rudd-Gillard debacle, the Party had not even had 120 years of managing this type of thing. Even less when they put Latham in charge. It’s good that they have finally figured things out.

  2. Do you know this for a fact or are adjusting to suit your purposes ?
    Was there an investigation into the allegations and were they proven?

    All I know is that Cox apologised for being a dick.

  3. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 12:32 pm

    The Greens seem intent on minimising their effectiveness with the newly elected government.
    It would be a nice change to see some sensible co operation from the Greens in achieving some genuine outcomes regarding climate instead of screaming “we want to be significant” .
    Have the Greens seen nothing in the election results ?
    Another six years of the Greens alienating themselves from the majority of voters.

  4. A carbon market without integrity undermines real climate action. We need a market that rewards high-quality carbon removal, not creative accounting.

    The govt should implement all recommendations from the Chubb Review of Australian carbon credits as a matter of urgency.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/bad-carbon-credits-are-undermining-climate-progress-20250601-p5m40h

    https://bsky.app/profile/davidpocock.bsky.social/post/3lqnpsc3wi22g
    ____________________

    Yes let’s have no more talk from Labor ministers peddling net zero by 2050, which we all know is based on dodgy offsets.

  5. The top US commander in the Pacific said on Monday that Beijing was on a “dangerous course” and its operations around Taiwan were not mere exercises, but “rehearsals”.
    “We face a profoundly consequential time in the Indo-Pacific. China is on a dangerous course,” said Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, in a special address to an AI expo hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project think tank. “Their aggressive manoeuvres around Taiwan are not just exercises. They are rehearsals,” he continued, without explicitly referencing a potential takeover of Taiwan.
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3312807/us-indo-pacific-commander-calls-pla-operations-taiwan-strait-rehearsals-not-just-exercises

  6. Entropy @ #2435 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 12:29 pm

    As these bombers need to be at a moment readiness. Placing them in secure bunkers will not be the answer. It will require defending the airstrip in its entirety. So the equivalent of a faraday shield placed in 3D space surrounding these airfields is required. Which will need to be turned off for short periods as the aircraft take off and landing pass through the faraday shields zonal defence.

    It is nearly impossible to know all the details, but my understanding is that the drones were hard coded for the GPS coordinates of the airfields – so, in this situation at least, jamming would not have worked. They drones were trained on the expected models of aircraft to hit at the most damaging points of the airframe. Reports called it AI, but I think that’s overkill for what would be required for this level of pattern recognition, but let’s just call it AI.

  7. There are several stages to training AI to behave as it did during Sunday’s attack.
    The first stage is selection of the right AI algorithm model and architecture to carry out the intended task and to identify the data in the format needed to be provided to the system.
    The next stage is data preparation – the gathering of a comprehensive dataset with which to prime the system, cleaning it up and converting it into a format the chosen AI model would recognize.
    This is followed by training the AI, which involves the repetitive manipulation, feeding and fine tuning of the data and the AI model, called “epochs”by IT nerds, to minimize errors and improve accuracy.
    Once training seems to be on track the next stage is validation and testing – seeing how the trained model performs when presented with previously unseen data, such as target aircraft being viewed from various angles, in different lighting and weather conditions.
    In the build-up to operational deployment the system is continually worked on with updates of any new data and adjustments needed to get the maximum performance from the system before it is unleashed for real.
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53784

  8. Another six years of the Greens alienating themselves from the majority of voters.

    The Greens will always be alienated from the majority because their raison d’être is to represent a minority in the manner facilitated by Australia’s preferential voting system.

    Bagging the greens for not winning as many votes as the majors is like bagging Maserati for not selling as many cars as Toyota.

  9. Bagging the greens for not winning as many votes as the majors is like bagging Maserati for not selling as many cars as Toyota.

    That’s a very unfortunate analogy!

  10. A ‘faraday shield’ or electronic warfare won’t be enough to stop optic fibre guided drones as are now common on the battlefield. Or autonomous units using an AI to find the bombers. It’s been reported that the drones in this attack used AI to target the aircraft fuel tanks

  11. timbosays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 1:06 pm
    Entropy @ #2435 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 12:29 pm

    As these bombers need to be at a moment readiness. Placing them in secure bunkers will not be the answer. It will require defending the airstrip in its entirety. So the equivalent of a faraday shield placed in 3D space surrounding these airfields is required. Which will need to be turned off for short periods as the aircraft take off and landing pass through the faraday shields zonal defence.

    It is nearly impossible to know all the details, but my understanding is that the drones were hard coded for the GPS coordinates of the airfields – so, in this situation at least, jamming would not have worked. They drones were trained on the expected models of aircraft to hit at the most damaging points of the airframe. Reports called it AI, but I think that’s overkill for what would be required for this level of pattern recognition, but let’s just call it AI.
    ==================================================================

    I think you are correct that jamming would not be enough. They would need to develop some form of electro-magnetic field that totally disrupts the electronics. Though if they do that it wouldn’t be long before drones will be developed with defensive shields against this measure.

  12. Me, I’d suggest finding a nice island with a lack of roads that can be used by enjoyers of the new DLC for Truck Simulator 2025 edition.

    Somewhere like, say, Diego Garcia or Guam.

    Oh. Wait.

  13. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 12:43 pm

    Australia’s emissions in Q1 were down. Not up. Again.
    – – – – – – – – – – – –
    You’ve stated this a number of times over the last few weeks. The most recent data I’ve been able to find is for 2024. Obviously, my google-foo is failing me.

    Could you provide a link / cite for Q1 2025 data? Thx

  14. @DPR of CBR – I suspect Boerwar is talking about the electricity sector emissions, which have been driven down by the combined actions of red, green and blue state/territory action despite the interference from red and blue federal governments.

    https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2025/qed-q1-2025.pdf?la=en#:~:text=Total%20emissions%20were%2027.4%20million,)%2FMWh%2C%20down%204.4%25.

    Quarterly emissions for all sectors except our largest one (exported fossil fuels) are available here, no Q1 2025 yet
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-updates

  15. Entropy @ #2463 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 1:27 pm

    I think you are correct that jamming would not be enough. They would need to develop some form of electro-magnetic field that totally disrupts the electronics. Though if they do that it wouldn’t be long before drones will be developed with defensive shields against this measure.

    You want an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) weapon – preferably a non-nuclear one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse

    Non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) is a weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse without use of nuclear technology. Devices that can achieve this objective include a large low-inductance capacitor bank discharged into a single-loop antenna, a microwave generator, and an explosively pumped flux compression generator. To achieve the frequency characteristics of the pulse needed for optimal coupling into the target, wave-shaping circuits or microwave generators are added between the pulse source and the antenna. Vircators are vacuum tubes that are particularly suitable for microwave conversion of high-energy pulses.

    12

    NNEMP generators can be carried as a payload of bombs, cruise missiles (such as the CHAMP missile) and drones, with diminished mechanical, thermal and ionizing radiation effects, but without the consequences of deploying nuclear weapons.

    This could probably defeat a fleet of drones. A drone would not be able to carry enough shielding to protect against it and still fly.

    If the Russian’s don’t have them already, they probably soon will, given how effective cheap drones have proven to be.

  16. We’ve reached nearly a quarter of a million EVs in Australia. Another 50,000 or so PHEVs which hardly count, IMO.

    Labor’s vehicle emissions standards will help accelerate the trend.

  17. Has anyone calculated how much annual CO2 emissions have been reduced because of Labor’s massive investment in pink batts? Over time that would be a stonking amount.

    P1 probably has the figures somewhere. If not Rex probably has them at his fingertips. In the folder next to his personal super calculations. VE doesn’t have a clue about the figures but would almost certainly claim credit for the Greens.

  18. @I still can’t believe he’s using a screenname that sounds like an infamous predator:

    “Bagging the greens for not winning as many votes as the majors is like bagging Maserati for not selling as many cars as Toyota.”

    I don’t do that. I bag the Greens for making themselves and their policies unpalatable to the majority. The majority won’t buy a Maserati but they’d quite like one if they could afford it; the same is presently not true for the Greens.

    If the Greens want to achieve stuff for the environment, they need to learn to win over the public, not just the 11% echo chamber. And to stop reacting to this kind of comment by shooting the messenger.

  19. @Boerwar – Labor’s pink batts debacle prevented state governments from running insulation programs, for a very long time.

    The ACT has only just plucked up the courage to do so recently.

    It’s hard to quantify the additional emissions caused by Labor torpedoing the industry, so no, I don’t have any numbers for you.

  20. Geoffrey Epstein says:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 12:55 pm
    It’s worth recognising that the ALP has now had 130 years experience of managing entrists, single issue driven participants and personal ambition. It has developed over time a robust system for managing both personal and political conflict and an internal power sharing system based on the principle of proportionality, leavened by a recognition of individual talents.
    130 years! That means that at the time of the Rudd-Gillard debacle, the Party had not even had 120 years of managing this type of thing. Even less when they put Latham in charge. It’s good that they have finally figured things out.
    *********
    My guess when I posted was that the split would be the example used for rebuttal.
    The point isn’t that Labor doesn’t fuck up – people, what can you do – but it’s got a pretty robust process for avoiding most potential explosions.

  21. So much respect!

    I once again respectfully remind Boerwar of our cordial discussion, back in the depths of 2018 or thereabouts, where I noted that – even at that early stage of development – commercially available drones (mostly quadcopters) were so sophisticated that in my view they would be soon be used for battlefield purposes.

    I offered a system where, to avoid GPS jamming, either terrain and/or target recognition, or inertial guidance would be used to direct a swarm of drones so large (dozens simultaneously, or even hundreds) that no target – particularly an outdoor target – would be safe from attack. Coming from diverse directions, flying at over 100kph (some can fly at 250-plus kph) but focusing on one spot, it would be virtually impossible to stop all of them; at least some drones would get through, making assassinations and military HQ decapitation strikes routine, absent overwhelming security and protective measures by the target (which might themselves be logistically crippling… today just about every container truck in Russia is being manually searched; traffic is at a standstill countrywide).

    BW was sceptical (as he was also sceptical of submarine drones), but I think yesterday’s successful raid by Ukraine on Russian airforce bases proved the viability of the “swarm” concept.

    Ukraine, whose leaders, according to Trump and Vance were rude, dishevelled and held no cards, have accomplished in a single operation what hundreds of thousands of US and/or NATO servicemen and women, a fleet of submarines, aircraft carriers, and dozens of billion dollar stealth bombers would have been unable to accomplish in a generation.

  22. This could probably defeat a fleet of drones. A drone would not be able to carry enough shielding to protect against it and still fly.
    ============================================================

    Except you don’t need physical shielding to block EM waves. You can electrify a thin metal shield on the drone to create a electrical magnetic field around the drone. If this is done in a certain way it could block an EM pulse.

  23. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 2:06 pm

    @Boerwar – Labor’s pink batts debacle prevented state governments from running insulation programs, for a very long time.
    …’
    ===============
    Thank you for that VE. I knew Labor must have made a big mistake providing insulation for 1.1 million homes with that insulation still there and still reducing demand each and every single year.

    Thanks for providing the standard Greens POV: Labor bad. This time it is for insulating 1.1 million homes. Naughty Labor!

  24. GE: “their raison d’être is to represent a minority ”

    I thought their “raison d’être” was to represent Australians?

  25. Tas Labor has just tabled (yet another) motion of no confidence in the Premier. This one is in response to the latest budget.

    I think by last count this’ll be the 3rd no confidence vote against the Premier in just over a year. 2nd from labor, and there was one by the Greens.

    It’s all silly buggers and the parties arent supporting each other in their motions, and the cross bench dont seem to engage.

  26. The Reserve Bank of Australia is prepared to “respond decisively” to any deterioration in the global economy, paving the way for rapid-fire cash rate cuts if Donald Trump’s tariffs spark further market upheaval.
    The 20 May RBA meeting minutes, released on Tuesday, show the rate-setting board discussed implementing a bumper 50 basis point cut last month. But they decided such a move was not yet warranted because there were no immediate signs the economy had been significantly affected by the US trade policy.
    The RBA decided on a quarter point cut instead, amid falling inflation and weak household consumption.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/03/rba-rapid-fire-rate-cuts-minutes-reveal

  27. So the plan is not to have a vote until there is an indication on the vote outcome.

    Labor leader Dean Winter has tabled a motion of no confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff, saying the Liberals have lost the right to govern after delivering the “worst budget in Tasmanian history”.
    “He’s wrecked the budget, because he’s planning to sell our power companies, our ports and our public transport and because no one can trust him after the handling of the Spirit of Tasmania fiasco,” Winter said.
    Winter plans to move the motion once enough crossbench MPs indicate their support.
    The Greens were the last to try a no-confidence motion back in May over the Macquarie Point stadium. Labor didn’t support that push, arguing it would bring down the government.

  28. Stuart says:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 10:28 am

    With the issue of staff bullying apparently still unresolved, except in Albanese’s eye, I wonder if Dorinda Cox will become, in time, Labor’s Mal Colston. I assume that, apart from replacing disgruntled Greens staff with new Labor staff, there was a sweetener on offer for her to jump ship. If I remember correctly, Mal became Deputy President of the Senate.

    You impugn Cox, asserting without any evidence whatsoever that Cox has taken a bribe. That is an absolutely typical Green defiling of an opponent. It’s a disgraceful allegation and it should be withdrawn. The Greens are a self-wedging outfit. That is, they drive away those on whom they rely for support. They’ve now wedged one of their Senators.

    Cox will have a chance to make a positive contribution to her people and to the country, working inside the heavy-lifting Party, Labor, having fled the professionally obnoxious intransigents, the Greens.

  29. It is no wonder at all that Cox would want to disentangle herself from the crypto-Reactionary cell, the Greens, who masquerade as a progressive assembly. They run a charade. To the extent they have any effect at all it is because they prop up Reactionaries in the Parliament and in the public polemical contest.

    We have seen the step-by-step dissolution of the Blue Reactionaries. And we are seeing a similar decay among their Green juniors, delegates, substitutes, reserves, decoys, echoes and trainees.

  30. Voice Endeavoursays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 2:06 pm
    @Boerwar – Labor’s pink batts debacle prevented state governments from running insulation programs, for a very long time.

    This idea the Pink Batt’s scheme was a “debacle” is another manufacture by the right media just like the “cost of living” crisis. The scheme was funded by the Federal government but the actual operation and licensing was under state government jurisdiction and regulations.

    The actual spend was relatively cheap for the long term benefits. Before you mention the deaths of 4 workers, the actual accident rate for the Pink Batts period was no worse and even lower than the accident rate preceding.

  31. Ah yes I never understood why they called it “pink batts” when referring to it negatively instead of insulation, since I it wasn’t pink batts that caused any of the issues.
    But it is a great reminder of Tony Abbott opposition style, which i can see many still to this day copy his slogan as if it makes any sense.

  32. Voice Endeavoursays:
    Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 2:06 pm
    …….Labor’s pink batts debacle

    A Green recycles Reactionary propaganda….another day, another example of Green gaslighting.

  33. Voice Endeavour @ #2465 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 1:45 pm

    Quarterly emissions for all sectors except our largest one (exported fossil fuels) are available here, no Q1 2025 yet
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-updates

    The Dec 2024 quarterly figures are here, and they now include “preliminary” data for Q1 2025 (which seems a bit odd, to say the least):

    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nggi-quarterly-update-december-2024.pdf

    Emissions for the year to December 2024 are estimated to be 446.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e1). This is essentially flat compared with the previous year, with national emissions estimated to have increased 0.05% (0.2 Mt CO2-e).

    National emissions are preliminarily estimated to be 442 Mt CO2-e in the year to March 2025, a decrease of 1.2% (5.4 Mt CO2-e) on the previous year to March 2024.

    But both these increases and the decreases are little more than statistical noise. In particular, the inclusion of dodgy LULUCF figures in the national figures obscured the real trend for many years. Even when you include LULUCF, the trend of our total national emissions has been astonishingly static since about 2020, rising one year by a percent or two, falling the next by a similar amount. But they were apparently falling steadily before that. However, if you could exclude LULUCF altogether it would become clear that in reality we have not really reduced our national emissions much (if at all) since 2005, our baseline year of choice (the reason for choosing this as our baseline year is another story, but one which I think most of us will know).

    The figures to check out are figures 1 and, 3 and 3a. They tell pretty much the whole story.

    There is a reason why some people concentrate so exclusively on the electricity sector, which is (a) it is the quickest, easiest and cheapest to reduce, and (b) many of the other sectors are looking pretty damned poor. In particular, with the approval of the North West Shelf expansion, we can expect both the fugitive emissions and stationary energy sectors to rise significantly in coming years.

    So let’s all just talk about electricity emissions, right? And never mention those dodgy LULUCF figures, or the even more dodgy double counting of them as carbon offsets.

  34. ‘The Australian Electoral Commission expects the nail-biter count for the north shore Sydney seat of Bradfield will be finalised on Wednesday, as teal independent Nicolette Boele slowly increases her lead.

    As of 1pm on Tuesday, Boele had a 33-vote lead over Liberal rival Gisele Kapterian, with the recount of the seat almost 85 per cent complete.’

    – SMH

  35. Lindsey Graham posts on social media like an edgelord weirdo

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/2/2325566/-Lindsey-Graham-posts-on-social-media-like-an-edgelord-weirdo?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web

    “Senator Graham is busy behaving like a teenage edgelord on X.

    Fam, is it good when a sitting senator implies that Israel should bomb a boat carrying Greta Thunberg, the 22-year-old climate change activist?

    On Sunday, Graham posted a picture of Thunberg on the deck of the Freedom Flotilla, currently bound for Gaza by sea to try to break Israel’s aid blockade so that Gazans could receive critical aid and food. Graham’s post was brief and snitty, but manages to be remarkably repugnant nonetheless: “Hope Greta and her friends can swim!”

    This isn’t even the first time Graham has waxed rhapsodic about how great it is to bomb civilians. Appearing last year on “Meet the Press,” Graham compared Israel’s brutal war against Gaza to World War II and suggested that perhaps we should just give Israel nukes to drop on the civilian population:

    “When we were faced with destruction as a nation after Pearl Harbor, fighting the Germans and the Japanese, we decided to end the war by the bombing

    of

    Hiroshima

    and

    Nagasaki with nuclear weapons. That was the right decision. Give Israel the bombs they need to end the war. They can’t afford to lose.”

  36. Nosferatu (Stephen Miller) had a melt down at last week’s meeting

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/2/2325664/-Nosferatu-Stephen-Miller-has-melt-down-at-last-week-s-meeting?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Poor Nosferatu Stephen Miller is having a bad 7 days I guess he didn’t think breaking apart, splitting up and causing terror and pain for others and their families would come back to bite him in a RWYS way , but losing his wife to Elon has made him super irritable.

    He took is misfortune out on a total of 50 ICE field agents and special agents, “eviscerating” everyone for ONLY focusing on criminals for deportation.

    “Miller came in there and eviscerated everyone,” said one official. “‘You guys aren’t doing a good job. You’re horrible leaders.’ He just ripped into everybody. He had nothing positive to say about anybody, shot morale down.”

    The official told the conservative outlet that Miller didn’t want ICE to narrow its field to just undocumented immigrants with criminal records. “Stephen Miller wants everybody arrested. ‘Why aren’t you at Home Depot? Why aren’t you at 7-Eleven?’” the official recalled. — The New Republic “

  37. Thanks for the update, BB.

    ‘Ukraine, whose leaders, according to Trump and Vance were rude, dishevelled and held no cards, have accomplished in a single operation what hundreds of thousands of US and/or NATO servicemen and women, a fleet of submarines, aircraft carriers, and dozens of billion dollar stealth bombers would have been unable to accomplish in a generation.’

    Ah, yes, well…

    I recall the North Vietnamese villagers fishing US mines out of Haiphong Harbour thus enabling shipping to maintain a flow of supplies to the NVA. It was 100% war propaganda bullshit of course.

    There is zero evidence that the current generation of Russian radars can actually see either JSFs or the US strategic bombers (B 52s aside). There is also zero evidence that Russian defences are capable of defending against those ancient style drones, the Tomahawk missiles, let alone any form of ballistic missile. Put those together and it is extremely unlikely that a single Russian ship in any Russian port would still be afloat after week 1. Ditto, any particular concentration of Russian strategic bombers.

    I recall mentioning in our discussions that there were already self guided torpedoes, watch and wait mines which would self-release from the sea bed at approaching ships, and guided glide bombs in World War 2. So drones are hardly a new thing, notwithstanding the breathlessness of the screen gamers’ generations views to the contrary.

    Clearly all of these have evolved markedly since WW2 and the technology race between offensive drones and defences against drones is on hyperspeed between Ukraine and Russia. AI and machine learning will doubtless inform both offence and defence. You may have noticed that a lot of drone footage that is put on the web shows signs of electronic interference. We have no idea of the proportion of drones that fail for one reason or another.

    Fly by wire drones are not new, despite more breathlessness, gasp. Older bludgers will recall images of Yom Kippur battlefields festooned with such wires. Neither are autonomous self-guided missiles new. These can either remember terrain and or can spot an enemy thing and self-guide to that. Generations of air to air missiles spring to mind.

    On the stats of drones used, if every drone worked, there would be anyone left alive within 20km of the front line. Ditto, shells.

    BTW, all we really know about your favorite drone sub is that it can go away and come back by itself. Hardly remarkable! The rest is a matter of constructors doing the hard sell. And, yes, of course there will a rapid technological advance to stuff that is under the surface.

    Drones have increased the depth of the battlefield. There even a new term for it. ‘The Grey Zone’. Drone numbers and drone complexity have made the battlefield more complex. Ukraine built 1 million drones last year. It plans to at least double that annual production. I am not sure what the Russian production is but you would have to guess that it would be greater than that of Ukraine.

    Drones and artillery combined favour the defence so soldiers are reverting to being moles as per WW1.

    I also seem to recall noting in our discussions saying that it was likely to be dumb artillery that would kill most soldiers in the Ukraine War. That is still the case, although the gap between artillery and other means of killing is narrowing.

    The combined usage of artillery shells is probably in the order of over a million rounds a year.

    I wish the Russians were retreating. They are not. They are advancing.
    I wish the Russian economy would collapse. It is not, although clearly it is under huge stress.
    I wish Putin would give up. He is not. Putin is not even negotiating because he thinks he is winning.
    I wish the United States, our ally, would do the right thing in terms of supporting Ukraine. It is not.

  38. Entropy @ #2476 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 2:16 pm

    This could probably defeat a fleet of drones. A drone would not be able to carry enough shielding to protect against it and still fly.
    ============================================================

    Except you don’t need physical shielding to block EM waves. You can electrify a thin metal shield on the drone to create a electrical magnetic field around the drone. If this is done in a certain way it could block an EM pulse.

    Sure. You could put your drones in a Faraday cage. They’d be perfectly safe. Of course, they might have trouble flying.

  39. I wish people wouldn’t post a link without a brief summary of the article so we don’t waste our time.

  40. Trump job approval:
    Approve 45.8%
    Disapprove 50.7%
    Don’t know 3.5%

    Trump net approval on the issues:
    Immigration+4
    Trade -8.6
    Economy -10
    Inflation -17.5

    (source: Silver Bulletin)

  41. Im not sure Putin would ever want to stop the war, because as soon as it does he will have a very angry population to deal with including a massive amount of battle scarred veterans, so it will go on, but I don’t think this will ever be a “win” for Putin or Russia in general.

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