With Labor’s win confirmed yesterday in Calwell, Labor can lay claim to 94 seats in the House of Representatives, shattering its previous record of 86 at the 1987 election. In seat terms, the only result that bears comparison for Labor is the wartime election of 1943, when Labor under John Curtin won 49 in what was them a chamber of 75 seats. As covered on the dedicated late counting thread, the only seat that remains seriously in doubt is Bradfield, where the Liberals hold a 14-vote lead over the independent in the early stages of a recount – a partial recount begins today in Goldstein, though something fairly extraordinary would have to turn up to overturn the 260-vote Liberal lead. If nothing changes from here, the Liberals will have 29 seats, the Nationals nine, independents nine, and the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance one each.
Some further random points of note:
• JWS Research has produced a “post-federal election survey report” along the same lines of a similar effort after the 2022 election, but has been sparing with details thus far. The Financial Review reports it found 49% of Labor voters identified a favourable view of the party as the main motivation for their choice, followed by 23% for the leader, 18% for policies or issues and 7% for the local candidate. Among Coalition voters, 56% named the party, 20% policies or issues, 13% the local candidate and only 9% the leader. The pollster further relates a finding that 16% decided on the day they voted and another 39% during the campaign period, which didn’t differ greatly from the 2022 results. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Wednesday in the week after the election from a sample of 1000.
• Josh Dolega, an officer at the Australian Taxation Office in Burnie and organiser with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union, has been preselected to fill the Labor Tasmanian Senate vacancy created by Anne Urquhart’s successful move to the lower house seat of Braddon. Sue Bailey of The Mercury reports the field also included Unions Tasmania secretary Jessica Munday, Meander Valley councillor Ben Dudman, former party state secretary Stuart Benson, Australian Education Union state president David Genford, and Burnie councillor and disabilities worker Chris Lynch. Dolega has a distinctly low profile, but had backing from Urquhart and her power base in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.
• By way of refuting suggestions that Labor’s low primary vote raised questions about Labor’s legitimacy or mandate, national secretary Paul Erickson noted in his National Press Club address last week that the party recorded a higher vote in the Senate than the House of Representatives, which he attributed to tactical voting in the lower house. While the distinction was fine – Labor recorded 34.6% of the vote in the House and 35.1% in the Senate – the last occasion I can identify where the two were matched at concurrent elections was in 1958.
• On the subject of Paul Erickson, Nine Newspapers reports on suggestions he could contest a by-election for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs should Mark Dreyfus react to his dumping as Attorney-General by quitting politics, the odds on which would seem rather short.
Crazy that the repressive bullahit from America is coming to our universities too. I thought we liked our students? I understand America, the government hates Americans more than anyone, but Australia seriously?
You’d hope that the government would crack down on stuff like that
Entropy @ #2649 Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025 – 9:45 pm
Sure, but Arky made a fair point, whereas Epstein made a funny joke, so I’m torn in two directions here.
”The Greens are coming across as extremely vengeful, spiteful and petty.”
Just like the “Liberals” over Peter Slipper’s defection.
Also yeah I hate the r word but I can hardly blame an Aboeiginal senator accurately describing the worst person Australia has to offer in such a way
So just for fun after seeing the Morgan poll result tonight I re-ran my long range range election forecast, using latest AEC results with LNP margins adjusted for the Morgan poll result (LNP -3.20% 2PP).
The long range forecast was for the next 3 elections with base (national) LNP swings for each of the elections based on a regression of LNP swings when in opposition since 1943. The predicted base LNP swings were:
2028: 1.78%
2031: 2.45%
2034 3.12%
For the record, I think these base swings are generous to the LNP given the disarray they are in and the fact that the electoral landscape has irrevocably changed and continues to change against them (ie ageing support base, failure to attract younger voters, declining influence of tabloid media and self-wedging on climate issues). It’s arguable that in their current state, they will not be able to repeat their performances when previously in opposition.
A randomised margin of error was applied to these base swings (SD=3.32%) and for simulating seat results, a seat swing variation (standard deviation) was further applied to the base swings. This was based on:
2028: the standard deviation of seat swings from the 2025 election.
2031: the standard deviation of seat swings from the 2028 election simulation.
2034: the standard deviation of seat swings from the 2031 election simulation.
The margins from the previous election simulation were carried through to the next election simulation.
I ran the simulation 30,000 times. Here are the results.
Election | Probability of LNP Win (76+ seats)
2028 | 0.19%
2031 | 9.57%
2034 | 32.56%
Yes, a lot can change between now and the next 3 elections, but this long-range forecast gives you some perspective of what an unprecedented and dire position the LNP currently finds itself in.
In terms of seats and 2PP, the Coalition is in nearly as bad a position as Labor was in 1975.
It took Labor 7 years and 4 months to come back.
Kevin Bonhamsays:
Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 9:01 pm
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/06/labor-tables-no-confidence-motion-in.html
Labor Tables No Confidence Motion In Premier Rockliff
Things getting messy in Tasmania … again.
_______________________________
I’m no Tassie politics expert, just that the ructions reminds me of an old Crikey article on the issue (a doubly funny take in hindsight):
Crikey March 2024: Labor blows Tasmania’s shot at being the place it sometimes is, that of possibility and fresh thinking
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/03/25/tasmanian-election-results-liberals-win-labor-no-coalition/
“Tasmanian Labor’s announcement on Sunday that Labor would not seek to form a minority government is a betrayal of historical possibility and audacity that could yield real lasting change and make this a historic moment not only in the state but in the Westminster system. ”
“The third road, the one not taken? That Rebecca White had gazumped her own party on Saturday night and said we won’t know the full result for weeks, but there will clearly be a larger number of clear progressives than Liberals, and we will try to form a Labor-Green-independent coalition at that time, with all groups taking ministries. ”
I wonder what happened to Rebecca White after that?
Pegasus
if that is your policy Green politicians should be hammering it day and night, not expecting workers to ‘google it mate’. Daft politics – and I’m pretty sure Greens understand what a talking point is, given other rhetoric.
Bizzcan at 10.32 pm
It was reported that the decision by Rebecca White to allow Rockliff to form a minority government, rather than try to form one herself from a weaker position, was made for her by other actors in Tassie Labor.
However, in hindsight it was clearly the correct decision. White is better off as a federal MP with very good prospects after winning Lyons easily.
From Dr Bonham’s overview on his blog, the irony is that Rockliff may possibly have his government saved, albeit temporarily, by David O’Byrne, previously Labor leader but now an independent who supports a blank cheque from the Treasury for the dubious and grandiose stadium.
Not only does the Tory government have a Labor rat (Madeleine Ogilvie) in its ministry, but its survival may be extended by a former Labor leader.
Clearly Tassie Labor is not the magnet for defectors that some see elsewhere.
Steve777 at 10.31 pm
Yes, but Labor got almost level on TPP at the 1980 election, 49.6%, because Hayden led a united opposition. That is the difference. Ley has support from a bare majority. However well she does that looks to be baked in.
Kerch Bridge Attacked Again. Explosives placed underwater on Bridge supports
Edit: From comments on Prof Gerdes sites: “Water doesn’t compress so it focuses an explosion away from it.
Once you crack and damage concrete, the sea water gets into the rebar and starts to corrode it, as the corroding steel expands it cracks and crumbles the concrete more.
Even if the bridge doesn’t come down immediately, it is severely weakened and will only get worse over time.”
Breaking…
Looks like a major explosion at the Kerch (Crimean gateway) bridge. 1,100 kilos of explosive applied to the foundations ie. subsurface attack.
https://youtu.be/T6Amm5MmL2g?si=4AwyjE2A4JVYFR9m
Cheeky Ukrainians videoed the Kerch Bridge explosion.
https://youtu.be/DRx7WuCpbUg?si=KO082DS82O4xsnb9
New thread.