Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.
I’m not presently in a position to offer the result the commentary it undoubtedly deserves, so hopefully the live results feature speaks for itself. Rest assured that this will be supplemented with voluminous analysis of late counting in close races in the weeks to come. Two changes keen observers might note from the close of play last night are that Bendigo is now rated a lineball contest between Labor and the Nationals – which would be an extraordinary success for the latter given the general course of events – and in allowing for the possibility that an independent who is on only 12.6% of first preferences will snowball to victory in Calwell. These changes result from me changing the candidates designated for my three-way projection, which had originally excluded the potential winners.
I have just finished writing an article for Crikey on the Senate race, which should be available to subscribers later this morning (UPDATE: Read all about it). The upshot is that the Coalition will only win two seats in each state, and could be reduced to one on a worst case scenario in Tasmania, which will reduce it to its lowest representation since parliament assumed its present size in 1984. Labor and the Greens look likely to have a majority between them, even without accounting for further left-of-centre votes from David Pocock (who romped home in the Australian Capital Territory), Fatima Payman and Lidia Thorpe.
Regarding Pyne, he was the Liberal Party guest on Nine’s election coverage (which I flipped to, after the ABC’s computers shit themselves and that Coalition guest kept annoyingly whining) and, once it was obvious that the Coalition had lost, he almost seemed relieved in his demeanour. Don’t get me wrong, he is a Liberal and supported the party and Dutton 100% and backed it with appropriate rhetoric but I almost got the feeling he wasn’t too upset that he’s not going to be required to talk up Dutton anymore.
I imagine this is how some Labor figures might have felt after the 2004 defeat.
That Ley is being seriously considered for leadership demonstrates one thing and one thing only: the pool is shallow.
Ley was virtually invisible during the campaign.
Ley (‘people don’t value something if it is free’ – THAT Ley) apparently did not value travel to the Goldie for some real estate investments, said travel being on the taxpayer. Since repaid.
Ley was sacked from Health by the Liberals because of the view that she did not do a good job. (Knifed by a Likely Liberal Lad.) Ley was not given the Shadow Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, apparently her first choice, said first choice being the traditional perquisite of Deputy Leadership, but presumably only if the Deputy Leader is a man. Ley was not given Treasury for the obvious reason – competence concerns – again traditionally the leg up to become the next party leader.
Not a living soul would be able to say what Ley was a shadow spokesperson for, let alone be able to nominate a single item of policy leadership under her tenure. (Shadow Minister for Women, Industry, Skills and Training, as well as Small and Family Business.) For what it is worth, policy settings for her area of responsibility include opposing free TAFE, opposing reducing HECs debt, opposing capping the rate of increase of HECs debt, and an election promise $30,000 instant assets right off for small business.
IMO, Ley was a lightweight during QT.
Ley was only saved from political oblivion by Morrison’s captain call. She was well on track to lose preselection despite being a sitting member.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 7:31 pm
Some more from the SMH.. it’s Freshwater wot dunnit
Yep “Dutton adviser Jamie Briggs” AND adviser to J W Howard on WorkChoices.. that about sums up today’s Liberal Party.. & the budding boy (@ 47) wonder Wolahan
Arky @ #909 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:21 pm
I can remember in the dim distant past John Gorton referring to a recently elected ALP (Hawke?) Government as the best Liberal Government available (or words to that effect)
Perhaps Ley should re-hire her old adviser, Lolinda Sasssoon.
Many moons ago, I enrolled in a Journalism Master’s. Dear old Clem, who was a staffer to Gough & the inagural dean, advised me to keep my paras short, further suggesting that I should be guided by Hemmingway’s writing style. Try as I may, verbosity won out. In later life, however, his advice rings true – economy of words has become an imperative. As an aside, what a wonderful weekend this has been.
Anybody seen or heard from M. Cash?
Sceptic: Here is Cash – https://x.com/i/status/1918709168862625870
I remember some people saying the Coalition was finished after the 2007 election. Anything can happen in politics. However I’m confident they won’t win the next election. Wouldn’t be as certain about 2031.
I’m confident that the next Coalition PM will be somebody who many here think is unelectable.
davidwh @ #957 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 8:08 pm
Yeah that’s true. While 2028 is probably going to be another Labor win, especially if Trump’s still around and continues to be as or even more atrocious as he is now, or similarly bad J.D. Vance takes over as US President and the LNP’s membership, backers and advisors insist on them being more like them, they’ll have a shot at 2031 once all that fracas is over.
Seadog
During the WA state election, when people talked about her taking the state seat, I had a quick look at her website. She seems to not really stand for anything, except for being a “local small business owner” who “gets” what the seat needs. She has now transferred this nebulous campaign to the Federal Division of Fremantle.
She reminds me of Angela Vithoulkas, who stood for the City of Sydney as a councillor purely on a local business ticket – she owns a coffee shop in the CBD. But while presenting as an unaligned person, she was quite active in Liberal party-adjacent circles, in an anti-cycling, anti-bike-paths crusade.
Vithoulkas actually lived in the Eastern Suburbs, outside the City of Sydney, but as a business owner she was entitled to vote in the City of Sydney elections.
Some genius at NSW ALP headquarters thought it would be a good idea to preference her, assuming that her preferences would elect a second Labor councillor. Instead they bloody well elected her!
Vithoulkas then went on to help transport minister Duncan Gay to rip up the bike paths in the CBD, which has turned cycling from a convenient, congestion busting and zero emissions way of cycling into your job in the CBD into a life threatening choice.
I am not going into the horrors of the cycling deaths, like the poor London paediatrician who took a job at St Vincents, fatally mown down on New South Head road cycling to work, but the death toll of people just trying to get around to their place of work is horrible.
And Vithoulkas was just one of many, including Alan Jones, who turned cyclists into targets.
I hope Kate Hulett is not so narrow minded, but it is a reminder that not all Independents are we’ll-intentioned.
Hmmm… looks like India has moved from threatening to cut off river flows into Pakistan to actually doing so. This is how wars start. I hope I’m wrong.
“ MAKS 24
@maks23.bsky.social
❗️ India has stopped regulated water flow through the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River, following its suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.
This marks the first suspension in the treaty’s 65-year history.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lodl34jg222u
If any of you had met Pyne for a few minutes you’d realise he isn’t a lightweight. He’s very very smart and able.
On Insiders they were talking about the need for Liberals and Nationals to part ways. I am not sure how that would work in Queensland given that they run as a single entity there. And if the LNP was to be dissolved for federal elections, all the previous in fighting that had existed would probably return and could sink the state government.
Although the Insiders discussion was correct in pointing out that the Liberals will never be able to return to the right of centre ground if they have the likes of Joyce and Canavan as potential members of their government.
Keith Wolahan on the repeat of Insiders. He looks younger than he’s 47 years. I feel he’s sneering at me though. I preferred Dan Tehan’s sleepy dad persona last night.
The future is always unknown. It’d be foolish to make any concrete predictions about the next election this far out. The best thing Albanese and his Government can do is not worry about it, and just focus on governing and legislating well, not giving the country an excuse to vote them out next time.
The Liberals don’t need a new leader so much as a new philosophy. The path they are on now is out of step with the people they need to get to change their minds and vote for them.
This last campaign, I felt, was always functioning at cross purposes. It didn’t know if it was Arthur or Martha.
Take for example it’s attempt to appeal to socially conservative voters in outer ring suburbs. On the one hand the Liberals proffered a policy suite that was directed at conservative Christians, as we saw over Easter as Dutton visited the Assyrian Church in the Western Suburbs of Sydney. However, on the other hand, if you look around those suburbs, you will find a large number of the voters there are socially conservative, BUT they’re Muslims! And what was Dutton doing that got them cross-wise with him? He was staunchly advocating for Israel! So, there goes their votes and the Regional Seats strategy with it. And they just couldn’t seem to see this at Liberal campaign HQ or in Dutton’s inner circle, and so it became emblematic of a self-defeating campaign in the end. Of which there were many other examples as well.
So, what they need to do is work out what their actual values and principles are, and make them the bedrock of a new philosophical direction, and make sure it is internally consistent. Then develop the policies and rhetoric to sell it successfully to the people.
Traditionally a female gets handed the poisoned chalice in Australian politics after a male has screwed their electoral chances so Ley must be in the party’s cross hairs.
I still think Hastie would be a better bet if they want a chance in 2028.
I think the government should work to diffuse the problem of international students taking houses this term. My solution would be to allow universities to accept as many international students as they can house in student accommodation . The government should give universities more money to build on-campus student digs to do so.
Diogenes and Wat Tyler, I’ve never met Pyne in person so thanks for the insight.
Melbourne is looking tasty: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/melb
If Bandt survives, will he work out what went wrong?
Diogenes @ #963 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:45 pm
As somebody who has actually had some mild interactions with him in the past, I agree with that. He’s a very nice guy. I disagree with a lot of his politics but he didn’t come across as an empty suit or a partisan stooge, and seemed quite intelligent.
Diogenes @ #968 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:49 pm
Or, in the US, when the incumbent’s age is no longer an avoidable topic, so they need someone to try and save furniture, and to sacrifice so they can clear the field for a centrist purple state Governor in 2028.
Wat
Exactly on both.
Do the ABC or PB results make sense when the commission results are only 6% counted?
Entropy says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 8:19 pm
I think the government should work to diffuse the problem of international students taking houses this term. My solution would be to allow universities to accept as many international students as they can house in student accommodation . The government should give universities more money to build on-campus student digs to do so.
__________
Why? The universities will be extrinsically motivated to fund housing development themselves when linked to intake.
Jen
He’s a lot more serious in real life away from the cameras.
Hastie now favourite with bookies.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 7:51 pm
….
It was so frustrating! Last night when I was scrutineering I saw ballot papers with just a ‘1’ against our candidate’s name. Extra votes going begging.
When I am on, I spend my time making sure the people that ask know how to vote. It is too late for slogans.
You get to use your how to vote to explain.
And you get to say; make sure when you number, put labor before Liberals even if you make labor 6 and liberals 7 ( we had seven candidates).
Yesterday I had a bonus line, Labor was the only one that showed up, we should get bonus points for doing that, vote how you like but punish the slackers, put labor before liberals.
Our booth got a 4% swing to labor, the seat 2% against, I like to think I helped.
Wat Tyler says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 8:21 pm
…..he didn’t come across as ….a partisan stooge….
I should hope not. That’s my gig. And he’s not my understudy.
Parolin and then Tagle and Zuppi favourite in the Papal election.
I’m still not sure if it’s legal to bet on it and if not why not.
Is it really any different to betting on political elections?
Entropy,
Oh, there would have been at least one highly depressed VC at last night’s result. One would hope he would have enough self awareness to either back down on the international student free for all, or resign, but that self awareness has been absent up to this point.
With the Government now holding a few more cards, one hopes the VCs start representing their institutions and not their execs, and we get a sensible deal where the balance of University business tips towards the public interest and away from the pay packets of senior executives.
At least we can dream.
Diogenes
The mail in the WA media, and elsewhere, is that Hastie won’t run.
He’s smart enough to know it’s a long road back and being much younger than the other contenders he’s likely happy to leave them to it.
I have think there is an argument to be made that just putting a 1 being informal is natural selection in action.
Updated Odds:
Hastie 2.60
Taylor 3.10
Tehan 5.50
Sussssan 6.50
I think Hastie will challenge for the leadership down the track, if and when the Government looks vulnerable at the next election and the current leader doesn’t look up to the task to close the deal. Hastie knows his potential, so do many others. There’s no point in wasting him on what might be a long rebuilding phase.
Of course, the risk of that is if you might permanently miss the window and the person who was there to keep the seat warm actually does become a contender. Or somebody else’s stock rises and you become yesterday’s news.
frednk – absolutely help people understand the system. Very few migrants come from a voting system with preferences.
One option might be to have some digital help so voters could do a trial on a device that wouldn’t sign off till the vote was valid. Then allow voter to copy the digital vote. Possible to allow printing of digital vote that is then copied onto actual ballot paper.
We have various options to help elderly people or people with disabilities. Need to be creative with language or comprehension issues.
Diogenes – Betfair has a market under Current Affairs. It is legal but I am not sure if it is a sin. Tagle is my guess.
So now that I’ve said I don’t think Hastie will put his hand up for leader at this time, he’s totally going to.
Sceptic….
M Cash is out touting for Hastie…Well, at least this was the snippet on saw on commercial news a little while back.
Hastie for leader has some attraction one supposes in that he is relatively young, and seems to present well.
That he won comfortably when things look bleak for the Liberals, is also a plus one supposes.
However, he almost hid himself from the Liberals, in many cases hardly referencing the Liberal brand, and, rumour has it, changed the hue of his advertising to more teal blue/green.
His army background and I gather, strong religious convictions may also be of benefit.
However, given that that Julie Bishop, despite her good service to the Liberals, was all but ignored when leadership was considered makes one wonder.
While being a woman did not help her as a Liberal that fact that was from WA also made her unelectable as a potential leader of the Libs.
I think this factor alone will make it likely that the next Liberal leader comes from either Sydney of Melbourne.
Having said this, what would I know!
If you’re a devout Catholic, it’s probably a no-no to place bets on the papacy but, if you’re not and it’s legal to gamble where you are, then there’s nothing against the rules for setting up such a bet.
Griff says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 8:21 pm
Melbourne is looking tasty: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/melb
_______
Boom!
From the ABC website:
The AEC has begun a preference re-throw between Labor and the Greens. At this stage only Postal votes have been thrown and these flow 75.9% to Labor and 24.1% to Greens. Given the high Liberal vote for postal votes, this sample of preferences may be skewed and projects to Labor ahead but Melbourne is being left in doubt until further preference counts are completed.
• Sarah Witty leads by an estimated 2,899 votes
This preference flow is higher than the estimate used on bludger track. Note the point about postals, but it is compatible with scrutineer reports from last night.
Looks like Wilson is back as is Hamer along with Wolahan if current postal trend continues.
Bullwinkel and Freo also slipping away.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 8:18 pm
The Liberals don’t need a new leader so much as a new philosophy. The path they are on now is out of step with the people they need to get to change their minds and vote for them.
This last campaign, I felt, was always functioning at cross purposes. It didn’t know if it was Arthur or Martha.
Take for example its attempt to appeal to socially conservative voters in outer ring suburbs. On the one hand the Liberals proffered a policy suite that was directed at conservative Christians, as we saw over Easter as Dutton visited the Assyrian Church in the Western Suburbs of Sydney. However, on the other hand, if you look around those suburbs, you will find a large number of the voters there are socially conservative, BUT they’re Muslims! And what was Dutton doing that got them cross-wise with him? He was staunchly advocating for Israel! So, there goes their votes and the Regional Seats strategy with it. And they just couldn’t seem to see this at Liberal campaign HQ or in Dutton’s inner circle, and so it became emblematic of a self-defeating campaign in the end. Of which there were many other examples as well
This was a transparently cynical attempt to make political gains from the conflict in Gaza. In this respect the Reactionaries and the Greens were applying rules from the same handbook – “The Cynic’s Guide to Gaslighting, Deception and Other Political Dirty Tricks”.
The Reactionaries and their Juniors were dealt with in similar fashion by their disgusted targets.
@Wat Tyler: “I’m confident that the next Coalition PM will be somebody who many here think is unelectable.”
I haven’t called the current candidates unelectable, I called them lightweight; I didn’t say it about Abbott or Dutton either (and some DID say it about Dutton). I used a lot of epithets about them but not unelectable. Because I spent 11 years of the prime of my life watching John Howard do things I abhorred and still get rewarded by the voters, so I am kind of conditioned to expect Australian voters to vote for the Coalition in spite of them being lying mean tricky assholes at all times. This is actually why this win is so cathartic – I think the 1996 electorate might have voted for Dutton, but the country has improved and my gen and younger have rejected that politics of fear and loathing bullshit.
“I remember some people saying the Coalition was finished after the 2007 election.”
That sounds pretty stupid after we’d just come off 11 consecutive years of Liberal government. I’m not doubting there’s someone stupid enough to say it but it wouldn’t have been a common opinion.
LNP has not selected a Victorian leader in 35 years.
China is ready to work with the Australian government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the foreign ministry said on Saturday, as it congratulated the Labor Party on its landslide re-election.
“China stands ready to work with the new Australian government led by Prime Minister Albanese and, under the fundamental guidance provided by the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries, continue advancing a more mature, stable, and productive comprehensive strategic partnership,” the ministry said.
This would be done to benefit both countries and “contribute positively to the peace and stability of the region and beyond”, it said.
The Australian federal election campaign took place amid turmoil from US President Donald Trump’s unveiling of tariffs on almost all countries.
Australia, a major US security ally in the Indo-Pacific region, was exempted from Trump’s tariffs during his first presidential term but under the new policy, Australian exports to the US would attract a blanket duty of 10 per cent – well below the sky-high tariffs on Chinese exports.
But China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and on Sunday, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government’s immediate focus would be to protect Australia from the “dark shadow” the US-China trade war had cast over the global economy.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3309018/china-congratulates-australias-labor-party-federal-election-win
Tricot says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 8:46 pm
There is a single word explanation for the failure of Bishop’s bid for leadership – sexism