Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.
I’m not presently in a position to offer the result the commentary it undoubtedly deserves, so hopefully the live results feature speaks for itself. Rest assured that this will be supplemented with voluminous analysis of late counting in close races in the weeks to come. Two changes keen observers might note from the close of play last night are that Bendigo is now rated a lineball contest between Labor and the Nationals – which would be an extraordinary success for the latter given the general course of events – and in allowing for the possibility that an independent who is on only 12.6% of first preferences will snowball to victory in Calwell. These changes result from me changing the candidates designated for my three-way projection, which had originally excluded the potential winners.
I have just finished writing an article for Crikey on the Senate race, which should be available to subscribers later this morning (UPDATE: Read all about it). The upshot is that the Coalition will only win two seats in each state, and could be reduced to one on a worst case scenario in Tasmania, which will reduce it to its lowest representation since parliament assumed its present size in 1984. Labor and the Greens look likely to have a majority between them, even without accounting for further left-of-centre votes from David Pocock (who romped home in the Australian Capital Territory), Fatima Payman and Lidia Thorpe.
On the same basis that Bennelong is considered a Labor gain: how people within the new boundaries voted in 2022.
The concept of notional seats has existed for a long time. All results are compared to the previous election. If a seat retains the same boundaries, the assumption is if the respective vote numbers for each party in each booth is the same, the result of the seat will be the same. However, if some booths are moved across to other seats, then it is recalculated and if the new shape of the electorate means the same number of votes from each booth that is incorporated will, instead, give a different result, it’s notionally declared thusly.
It’s just a purpose for psephological purposes so people can understand the seat by seat swings. It’s not there to erase the past and claim that the voters of Electorate A were actually represented by a different party or they actually voted differently last time. It also can be a useful metric for making sure that redistributions are not unfair or vulnerable to accusations of gerrymander by avoiding maps that have too many of them, especially if more favourable to one side (where possible under guidelines of course.)
“ On the same basis as Bennelong: how people within the new boundaries voted in 2022.”
Only if you assume people vote at their nearest booth.
We don’t actually know how any street, block or suburb voted exactly.
On the best available determination thereof. And at federal level at least, the assumption is not that people voted at their nearest booth: the AEC produces data for each ABS Statistical Area 1 recording how many people voted at each booth in the electorate.
Diogenes @ #1103 Monday, May 5th, 2025 – 12:08 am
It can never be an exact science. Even if an electorate stays the same shape, it would be different than the last time. People move out, others move in, some die, others turn 18, gain citizenship, already are adult citizens but finally got around to enrolling etc.
It appears that Melbourne is likely to change hands, from Green to Labor. This will reduce the Greens from 4 to 1 member of the House. That will be a very welcome result if it eventuates.
Thanks William.
Hey Hack
Great times for the good cause my friend.
nathsays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 11:53 pm
If someone paid me millions for polling I would just pocket the cash without doing any work and say ‘yeah it’s 51-49’.
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Nath, I think that’s what Freshwater did.
I know there are widespread calls for the Liberals to move back towards the centre if they want to recapture their former blue ribbon seats and return to the government benches. The problem is, this isn’t where much of their membership now is. When you hear criticism of Liberal leaders pandering to their base, well their base is their membership, they’re the people who vote in preselections. The Liberal Party is no longer the liberal party that Menzies founded. As membership has declined, branches have become easier to stack or take over. The party has a structural issue in that it no longer reflects much of the community it purports to represent.
Where does this leave Australian politics? I don’t know. Much has been said in the past of the Greens squeezing Labor from the left. What they didn’t mention was the Liberals moving to the right and vacating the centre for Labor. If Labor can govern well, and Australia doesn’t suffer from any catastrophic external events, then they could be in power for a long time.
Been There says:
Monday, May 5, 2025 at 1:03 am
Hey Hack
Great times for the good cause my friend.
Hey Been There! Yes, remarkable results all over the country. The country is in better shape now: we have a strong government – an experienced and determined government – to deal with some serious business in the days ahead.
The indolent, hollowed-out dimwits have been expelled. So good to see.
Very well campaigned, my friend. Bravo.
I think we can say the duopoly is finished.
The only thing I got right for this election was the Greens in for a surprise Qld. They went too hard on persecuting Labor on Palestine. Latest update put Melbourne back into play yesterday. Now that would just be another cherry on top next to Dickson. Will the Nats dump littleprod over his genius nuclear energy brain fart ? Can’t go to Barnaby_poor bugger has prostate cancer. Albo you’re a keeper_ well done mate!
New thread.
I think we can also say the effects of the Green Adani Gimmick are wearing off in QLD. 8 gains in prospect for Labor in that State. More to come. Excellent.
Bludgeoned Westie @ #1086 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 11:54 pm
Dr Gordon Reid
Rebecca White could be a candidate for the outer ministry maybe?
Andrew Charlton and Peter Kahlil are already special envoys, so you would expect the PM will promote them further. Gordon Reid and Josh Burns ought to be considered too.
Albo has lots to choose from now, in comparison a dearth of talent on the other side – Tim Wilson would go straight into a shadow cabinet if he wins Goldstein, Simon Kennedy is another with ability and potential. But the story for them is very grim, they will be reliant on those remnants of previous Coalition governments who are still there.
William Bowesays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 10:37 pm
Shane Stone famously described a perception of the Howard government as “mean and tricky” in a leaked document, but “the divisive dwarf” was one of Paul Keating’s.
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and who can forget that george brandis’ only contribution to the betterment of public life was when he coined the immortal description of howard as “THE RODENT”?
The Guardian has run an article this morning on Liberal Senator Holly Hughes blasting Angus Taylor.
It makes a good read and her points are an insight into just why the Liberal campaign was such a disaster. Thank goodness she`s spoken out and put it simply and clearly why there is no way she will back him for leader.
One of her points is the disappearance of Liberal policy with costings such as her men`s health/suicide prevention initatives which just disappeared and had no role to play in Liberal policies for the Australian people.
During the campaign as a South Aussie I was surprised to hear little from Senator Anne Ruston who is the Shadow Minister for Health. Shadow`s the right word here – why no blowback from her at the Albanese claims of how lucky Aussies are for `free Medicare` when that only goes to a limited number of Australians?
Why no rebuttal to the Mediscare ads showing Dutton talking about a $7 charge to see the GP when in fact it`s much more for modest income taxpayers to see a GP anyway?
Labor have done nothing to change the $50 plus gap fees that are normal for people who get zero concessions but aren`t flush with money. Health costs eat up a lot of state and federal budgets and there needs to be an adult conversation about how to fund and reform the system.
Another Liberal campaign failure, one of the worst and failing to educate the electorate about Medicare`s realities doesn`t do anybody a favour. Why on earth did the Liberals ignore or fail to register that healthcare is one of the crucial policies that voters want to know about?
I`ve never seen such a `campaign` by an Opposition party in all the years I`ve been aware of Australian elections. It will be interesting to see the Labor complacency settle in as the result of such an easy ride to majority.
Dave Sharma on ABC News intimating that Liberals need to look at all options.. Katheryn put to him.. ” splitting from Country party “.. a yes was hinted at.. it’s the only forward for them.. stand for your own principles ( if you can find them in the bottom drawer) & then maybe accept minority government with Teal support