Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.
I’m not presently in a position to offer the result the commentary it undoubtedly deserves, so hopefully the live results feature speaks for itself. Rest assured that this will be supplemented with voluminous analysis of late counting in close races in the weeks to come. Two changes keen observers might note from the close of play last night are that Bendigo is now rated a lineball contest between Labor and the Nationals – which would be an extraordinary success for the latter given the general course of events – and in allowing for the possibility that an independent who is on only 12.6% of first preferences will snowball to victory in Calwell. These changes result from me changing the candidates designated for my three-way projection, which had originally excluded the potential winners.
I have just finished writing an article for Crikey on the Senate race, which should be available to subscribers later this morning (UPDATE: Read all about it). The upshot is that the Coalition will only win two seats in each state, and could be reduced to one on a worst case scenario in Tasmania, which will reduce it to its lowest representation since parliament assumed its present size in 1984. Labor and the Greens look likely to have a majority between them, even without accounting for further left-of-centre votes from David Pocock (who romped home in the Australian Capital Territory), Fatima Payman and Lidia Thorpe.
What name will ESJ/ Lars come back as next ?
He has surely top “4 More years of Campbellism” in this election.
smile
Surely it doesn’t matter who the next Liberal leader is now. They aren’t likely to be Liberal leader in 4 year’s time, so it could be anyone. Hastie, Tayor, Susssan, someone else.
The important question is who comes after them.
Agree Fess.
davesays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 10:03 pm
What name will ESJ/ Lars come back as next ?
======================================================
Brave Sir Robin.
I honestly think the liberals will try to court the teals to save them. I mean, that would be the smart move, but intelligence can never be relied on as indication of future behaviour when it comes to them.
Shame for them that the guy who could have forged such an alliance, Turnbull is long gone.
Of course – for less than a year in 2007-08 before being deposed by Malcom3 Turnbull. Then Kevin07 in a spirit of bipartisanship that was strictly one-sided gave Brendan a plum job, head of the Australian War Memorial.
Who could forget Brendan Nelson?
@Steve777
Kevin Rudd also gave a job to Peter Costello during this period. I read Rudd was angering Labor figures with these appointments. Particularly when the Liberals were in government previously rarely cared for impartial appointments no matter what were your political stripes.
Nelson’s first gig from Labor was ambassador to Belgium, Luxembourg, the EU and NATO in 2009
The war memorial job came in 2012.
A really bad idea as it has turned out.
I recall there being a conversation between Bridget Archer and Peter Dutton on the floor of parliament at one point last term, basically Archer indicating at the Teals and saying “They should be with us.”
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 10:27 pm
I recall there being a conversation between Bridget Archer and Peter Dutton on the floor of parliament at one point last term, basically Archer indicating at the Teals and saying “They should be with us.”
=====================================================================
She got that the wrong way around.
Replace “They” with “I” and “us” with “them” and it would be right.
Never forget that Stone as Liberal Party President described Howard, then pm, as the Divisive Dwarf
The DNA of the Liberal Party has been to win elections and it has won elections by dividing, looking for 50.1% (and always needing to have an enemy even offshore such as Vietnam)
The day of its demise was always coming – noting that whilst it has a National President it is actually State Divisions and where those Divisions are broken beyond repair controlled by the likes of Ancic, Sukkar and the calibre repeated across all States and Territories
From here the National Party will go its own way and the Liberal Party, the Liberal National Party and the Country Liberal Party will disappear
To gain a place at the table the National Party will embrace Labor (which has Country Labor)
Seriously, why would Hastie want to run as Tory leader now? They are probably three elections away from a realistic shot at power. Why would he do all the grunt work, only for somebody else to elbow him out nearer to the summit? In any case He IS a right wing nut job! I don’t think he would be that effective. As for Allegra Spender, she would be a treasurer in a Tory government? Based on what exactly? She looks alright, has a nice hair do and all, but what else?
Shane Stone famously described a perception of the Howard government as “mean and tricky” in a leaked document, but “the divisive dwarf” was one of Paul Keating’s.
I’d hate to see what Wonk Level 5 is if that was only Level 4.
Well, i dont think i would be writing off the ALP in Freo or Bullwinkle just yet.
That said, Hullet has probably done better in booths south and East of Freo than expected. It will all come down to preference flows, and will wind up close.
My impression is that Hullet ran mainly on anti Gas / Fracking, which taps into specific environmental issues where the ALP, State and Fed, have not exactly covered themselves in glory.
Be sad if Josh loses this one. good bloke and has been a good and very active member. 🙁
William isn’t Bennelong a ALP retain, not gain?
Been Theresays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 10:43 pm
William isn’t Bennelong a ALP retain, not gain?
====================================================
Redistribution made it notionally Liberal. Same with Menzies which was notionally ALP after a redistribution.
What’s the difference between Peter Dutton and a toilet…the toilet has a seat,..
imacca @ #1063 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 10:42 pm
Yeah, Fremantle looks like it’s probably going to go down to the wire. While the 2CP has yet to be determined, Election Day primary votes (about 41,000) look about similar to the Central Fremantle pre-polling booth, while other prepolling booths looking more favourable to Labor have yet to report their 2cp’s, and they’re about 41,000 as well.
The rest comes down to Absents and Postals.
“Labor needs to …”
Implement the promises it took to the election. No more and no less. That, and precisely that, is what those who voted for them have given them a mandate to do. If you think otherwise, you need to revise your understanding of a ‘mandate’.
ALP will hold Fremantle easily. The booth with the 2pp count has primaries of 38ALP-29IND with a 2pp of 47-53, the seat as a whole has primaries 39-23 and this gap will likely widen in the postcount. Barring some very unusual postal/absent etc behaviour this one is in the bag for the ALP. My guess is about 52.5ALP-47.5 final 2PP
newy boy, unless you sincerely think that in the next 3 years Labor won’t pass a single law that wasn’t part of its mandate, it’s incredibly tiresome and also wrong to say that it’s not relevant to discuss what other things the government might do.
Parties do get elected on the basis of campaign promises, but they also govern more generally if they win. We don’t have government by plebiscite where only things expressly approved by the punters at an election can be enacted (thank $*&%).
Also if Tim Wilson does win in Goldstein, I suppose he has the Prayer Room of Parliament House to look forward to getting back to.
newy boy says:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 10:54 pm
“Labor needs to …”
Implement the promises it took to the election. No more and no less. That, and precisely that, is what those who voted for them have given them a mandate to do. If you think otherwise, you need to revise your understanding of a ‘mandate’
————-
“No more and no less”??
So once they do their “mandate” things, they sit silent in Parliament no matter what happens because they cease to function as their “mandate” batteries are flat?
That is NOT how Parliamentary democracy has ever operated nor was ever meant to.
Donald Trump Jr 20/1
Ivanka Trump 25/1
For next POTUS.
Entropy, doesn’t matter about the redistribution, Labor had the seat and is the incumbent.
So Labor retain.
Diogenes, from the democratic side I like Shapiro at $15 and a roughie Rahm Emmanuel at $101
“Patrick Batemansays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 11:00 pm
newy boy, unless you sincerely think that in the next 3 years Labor won’t pass a single law that wasn’t part of its mandate, it’s incredibly tiresome and also wrong to say that it’s not relevant to discuss what other things the government might do.
Parties do get elected on the basis of campaign promises, but they also govern more generally if they win. We don’t have government by plebiscite where only things expressly approved by the punters at an election can be enacted (thank $*&%).”
Sure. But they certainly shouldn’t be doing things that were precisely the opposite of what they campaigned on as some have suggested on this blog
In other news that will make everyone smile…
The shadow finance minister, Jane Hume, said Dutton’s loss was “very sad” for the Liberal party. She has been mentioned as a possible deputy leader by moderate MPs.
Hume said she would start by rereading the review she co-authored into the 2022 election loss. She previously accused commentators of “already reading the entrails before the chicken is gutted”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/03/coalition-leadership-race-angus-taylor-sussan-ley-federal-election-2025
Too funny (and unintentional on her part). She has committed to re-reading her own 2022 Election review. I don’t remember her being Australia’s Joe Biden. Was she always like this? So gaffe-prone and lightweight?
Been There @10:43pm
Bennelong was notionally Liberal after the redistribution. So Labor gain is correct even though the sitting MP is Labor.
Patrick Bateman & Rakali, please look up the meaning of ‘need’. Contrast it with the meaning of ‘may’ or ‘could’. I said nothing about what the re-elected Labor government may or could do, perhaps with input from the Greens, Teals or Wilkie. I was saying they should only consider themselves obliged to implement their own platform, not the platforms of other parties or independents who ran against them.
Patrick Bateman@9:35 pm: “The problem they have, is that they have been persuaded by Trump and previously Boris Johnson that there is no such thing as objective reality, and so they can harness positions at odds with reality. They seem to think the electorate will come along with them if they just screech it loud enough.”
Me: Do you realise how bad things are in USA and UK. They had/ have leaders like Trump and Boris Johnson.
Whereas Trump is destroying the most powerful nation in the world, Boris Johnson has already done that by Brexit. Now, Reform (aka UKIP in another name and lead another mad man called Nigel Farage) will complete the destruction.
@Ghost of Whitlam:
“I’d hate to see what Wonk Level 5 is if that was only Level 4.”
Anything to do with the ACT and Tasmania’s Hare-Clark multi-member electorate system, the point of which escapes me.
If you’ve never heard of the Ginninderra effect, you haven’t yet experienced Wonk 5.
This is getting silly.
Labor held Bennelong, redistibution does not make it a Liberal seat, the voters do.
It’s a Labor seat pre election and is now a Labor retain.
If someone paid me millions for polling I would just pocket the cash without doing any work and say ‘yeah it’s 51-49’.
It’s still too early to ask but who do you think would get promoted to the outer ministry or assistant ministry. I’ve heard some names like Sally Sitou, Jerome Laxale and Madonna Jarrett but what about MPs Dan Repacholi or Ann Urquhart who I’ve seen are of note, but have yet to be mentioned by people to be candidates for these ministries?
Nath – yes, but did Labor gain or retain the seat of Bennelong?
Labor held a seat in the last parliament that had Epping and Carlingford in it. Now it holds a different seat that has Lane Cove and Hunters Hill in it. It’s of no logical consequence that it was decided at various times to call these seats Bennelong. Fraser used to be in Canberra and now it’s in Melbourne.
WB – thank you for euthanising that pointless debate.
So no one held Bennelong prior to this election?
Moved boundaries so it became a new seat?
Okay, got it, so Labor gain for a seat they already held.
Did that happen anywhere else in the country.
I’m not getting this.
“If you’ve never heard of the Ginninderra effect, you haven’t yet experienced Wonk 5.”
I just googled it, got a few paragraphs in and my eyes glazed over.
No euthanising there newy boy.
The postals are the hidden brass knucks in the pocket of this election. Increased postals has hidden some of the Liberal vote. But such is the scale of the wipeout it may not save them much. Winning Goldstein for Tim Wilson the annoying one. But that same effect then hurts the Greens in Melbourne and Ryan.
Been There – evidently not. (Sigh.) Labor had a seat in its column called Bennelong in 2022; Labor also has a seat in its column called Bennelong this year, with boundaries enclosing some areas in common with the 2022 seat called Bennelong. Ultimately, that is what matters.
If my Wikipediaing is at all accurate, I found 9 LNP Liberal seats – Bowman, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Groom, Herbert, McPherson (assuming Leon Repello sits as Karen Andrews did), Moncrieff, Wright
Against 6 LNP Nationals seats – Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn, Maranoa, Hinkler (assuming David Batt sits as Keith Pitt did) and Wide Bay.
On that basis why is Whitlam considered a Labor retain despite boundaries shifting to the Southern Highlands ie Bowral, Moss Vale and Mittagong.
Anyway I give up, how can you gain a seat you already have?
End of story for me.
Go the mighty Labor Party!
Been There, Monday, May 5, 2025 at 12:24 am:
Amen to that, brother!
Ha. That is so obviously not obvious. We’re in a simulation, aren’t we?
Allegedly, Dutton lied about having modelling and was stalling until he got some from the always reliable Frontier (of believability) Economics.
——————————
Dutton spruiked the [gas reservation] policy for the first week of the campaign but faced relentless questions about details from the press pack. Each day, Dutton teased that it was coming.
“The reason the modelling was late is because it didn’t exist”, an exasperated Coalition MP explains. “It was effectively retrofitted.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/months-before-election-day-the-coalition-was-soaring-in-truth-a-catastrophe-was-already-unfolding-20250501-p5lvqj.html