Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.
I’m not presently in a position to offer the result the commentary it undoubtedly deserves, so hopefully the live results feature speaks for itself. Rest assured that this will be supplemented with voluminous analysis of late counting in close races in the weeks to come. Two changes keen observers might note from the close of play last night are that Bendigo is now rated a lineball contest between Labor and the Nationals – which would be an extraordinary success for the latter given the general course of events – and in allowing for the possibility that an independent who is on only 12.6% of first preferences will snowball to victory in Calwell. These changes result from me changing the candidates designated for my three-way projection, which had originally excluded the potential winners.
I have just finished writing an article for Crikey on the Senate race, which should be available to subscribers later this morning (UPDATE: Read all about it). The upshot is that the Coalition will only win two seats in each state, and could be reduced to one on a worst case scenario in Tasmania, which will reduce it to its lowest representation since parliament assumed its present size in 1984. Labor and the Greens look likely to have a majority between them, even without accounting for further left-of-centre votes from David Pocock (who romped home in the Australian Capital Territory), Fatima Payman and Lidia Thorpe.
Anthony Albanese’s Labor government has won the election resoundingly, securing a majority with strong swings around the country, and Peter Dutton has lost his seat of Dickson. By Karen Barlow.
In a stunning rebuke to the ambitions of the Coalition, the opposition leader Peter Dutton will leave parliament, losing his seat amid a resounding win for the Albanese Labor government.
Labor is on track for a return of majority government, with Anthony Albanese the first leader since John Howard in 2004 to be returned to the office, and the first Labor leader to win a second term since Bob Hawke in the 1980s.
In one of Labor’s biggest ever victories, and with vote counting still under way, Labor scored a swing of 3.7 per cent and is likely to be returned with 86 members.
The Liberal Party went backwards in almost every territory and will be reduced to around 38 members. Not only has it lost the leader, but it’s set to lose potential future leaders.
Labor under Albanese has defied history, extending its majority in a second term.
Albanese emphasised unity in his victory speech.
“My fellow Australians, Australians have chosen the Australian Labor Party as their government,” he told a rapturous Labor crowd. “And our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country.”
“We do not need to beg, or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek out inspiration overseas.
“We find it right here, in our values and in people tomorrow, we dedicate ourselves to your service. We renew the great responsibility and the opportunity of government and with pride and purpose, optimism and determination, with faith in the fair go and faith in each other. We return to the work of building Australia’s future.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2025/05/03/labor-secures-resounding-victory
Thanks for posting Cat. Albo will go down now as a great Labor leader.
The Liberal party needs to take a good look at itself.
Simply parading Republican and Sky News talking points should not win an election.
From the Saturday Paper: “One Liberal MP described result for the Liberal and Nationals Coalition as “like a bloodbath”, while another tells The Saturday Paper that it “highlights that you should not let Peta Credlin and Tony Abbott run your campaign”.
My attention turns to the Senate. Kevin Bonham’s wrap showing a possible 5 or 6 PHON. Yes Dutton has made the Senate a more right wing place than he found it.
That has a ring of the UK Reform party about it. The LNP lost it’s base to the right in the upper house.
Morgan was most accurate.
PHON pumpers look silly now, especially freshwater and AFR
Pollsters were pretty good on GRN vote though
Crazy to think yesterday morning tbere was talk of 73 deats for Labor and more senate seats for One Nation. Havent felt proud of my country since the Voice but Albo ate up Dutton and I’m feeling pretty good about it
I’m not sure Albo is a great leader it’s more his opponent is so terrible that it led to this scale of victory. I think the Liberals need to go with a leader that seems genuine like Dan Tehan if they don’t they risk extinction.
Looks like all those crashed Liberal campaign trucks during the campaign were a portent. 😐
And so the gas lighting of Labour and Albos success starts.
…and dare I say it:
Australia Woke Up!
mj,
Get in the bin!
Anthony Albanese was inspiring enough as a leader to obtain the biggest electoral victory for Labor since John Curtin in 1942! Which is an expression of confidence from people who are not partisan in any way, shape or form. Unlike you.
My song selection for the recovery is “Bitter Sweet Symphony” by The Verve
Libs will have to be totally destroyed before we will get them out of Wannon
Mostly Interested @ #NaN Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 5:46 am
From The Greens paddock. Not entirely unexpected, tbh. 😐
Cat I’m not particularly partisan, call it as I see it.
I couldn’t disagree more mj.
Albo is certainly a great leader.
Does the policy hard yards, knows how to run a cabinet government, is compassionate and generally makes the right call on the big matters.
bug1,
Alex Dyson should take hope from Ali France. If he believes he should be the MP for Wannon he can keep on trying until he gets there.
It was a brilliant campaign by Dysons team, can’t see them repeating it, or fund-raising anything close to the million they got this time.
I doubt he will run again
Singapore had its election yesterday as well another landslide win for the ruling People’s Action Party 87 seats to 10 for the Workers Party.
It’s a big win for stability and hopefully will send these messages to both party rooms:
Labor: You can win elections if you don’t white ant, if you don’t leak, if you don’t run around starting fires. You can win if you stay ruthlessly on message.
Coalition: You watch too much Sky. Get out of Paul Murray’s mancave and touch grass.
Bitter sweet symphony would be an interesting choice.
The songwriter of bittersweet was successfully sued for plagerism and had to forfeit all royalties to the original writers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitter_Sweet_Symphony
Albo is not a great leader but this result gives him the chance to become one.
“O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!”
Great results in Dickson and probably Griffith. Melbourne looks shaky for Bandt. Bass seems set to go to Labor.
Congrats to the Teals for doing well. This is the future for disenchanted LNP voters.
That’s true Mexicanbeemer he has the mandate to become a great leader if he has it in him.
I will say, for those who say albo isn’t really a great leader or remarkable. I offer two points, one as a west Aussie and one from federal political history.
1) people said mark McGowan was ordinary, that he was average (he lost the 2013 wa election, hell, there was an attempted to coup him a year out from 2017 because some in labor thought he couldnt win). But he became THE single most popular leader in Australian political history. Bar none.
2) Howard. Like or dislike, Labor or liberal, both back in the 80s and 90s thought him… deaply underwhelming at best. Yet he became the 2nd longest serving pm in aus history.
As such, there is a solid trend of underestimating politicians and then being proven wrong. People will split hairs over if they (McGowan, Howard, etc) were just lucky or fortunate, but regardless of that, they still seized that momentum. If albo seizes the momentum.. well then.
C@tmomma @ #1 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 5:24 am
Thats just it though isnt it? A rebuke of the coalition, and a rebuke of Donald’s ideology as opposed to an endorsement of Anthony and his weak government?
The vote for the duopoly has edged lower again with ever more Australians begging for “anyone else”, who will be poorly served by this new government.
They will be poorly served along with future generations left behind with a worsening climate crisis as a result of 30 new coal and gas projects, the working class increasingly locked out of home ownership and affordable housing with billions of dollars of subsidies going to the rent seekers, the maugean skate, and all other at risk and endangered endemic species we will lose as a result of Labor’s land clearing and environment policies, pension and other allowance recipients who face three more years of below poverty payments.
Congratulations on your win, but telling people to “get in the bin” absolutely reeks of the privilege that over 1/3 Australians are voting against.
Do. Better.
I was being ambitious with my pick of “Labor 79, LNP 52, Greens 2 (wish-casting MCM out there), Other 17”.
Still in with a show. 🙂
People didn’t think John Howard was a great Australian leader either, from the Far Left especially. Understandably so in many circumstances, but he was able to win multiple elections because the Australian people believed in his ability to run the country. He used this to get much of his agenda implemented.
I feel that Albo has garnered that same sort of support from the Australian people this weekend. He may not be as flashy as a Keating, or as inspirational as a Hawke or Whitlam, but he is True Blue. He doesn’t bung on side, as the great Australian colloquialism goes, and to use a Gen Z/Millennial term, WYSIWYG. What you see is what you get.
So, if the people who, just want to call it as they see it, can at least acknowledge that the Prime Minister of this country may not be their cup of tea but at least he is the preferred choice, quite bleeding obviously, for the vast bulk of Australians, that would be appreciated here.
Freshwater being the worst pollster, and the liberals using them internal (i believe), might help explain their bad strategy.
Most of the campaign, freshwater had Lib primary at 39, final being 37, thats a 14+% error on the current 31.7%
This recent post also sticks out now; “A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based”
So Gina, Rupert, Plymouth Brethren, Clive, DID YOU GET THE MESSAGE?
Littleproud for LOTO?
The biggest winner on the night?
The Offshore Wind Farms!
We can have these good things now. 🙂
bug1,
Just a suggestion, but maybe Alex Dyson should join Labor. With a big budget behind him and the potential of being in government, he may do better.
25 in 25 looks like it’s going to be 14 or 15 in 25, of which 2 are Green. That’s probably the best result from last night.
The Senate will still be a nightmare, but will fracture.
Interesting that in some way we’re mirroring the US, in that the left (Labor / Greens) are winning the major urban centres, while the conservatives win the rural / regional vote. It can work in the US but clearly can’t here. The libs will have to change their strategy big time, as they are only preaching to the converted with Sky News and other their other boosters. Being locked out of all the capital cities is a disaster electorally for them, and it must be said, I couldn’t be happier!
Best line of the night was Antony Green saying he didn’t own a vase.
Worst was the Lib guy who kept saying “wait for the pre-polls”
Surprise was Duttons gracious concession speech. If he’d been like that more of the time people might have thought better of him. He was the antithesis of “we can disagree without being disagreeable”. he’s been disagreeable even when you do agree with him!
Labor campaigns ive been involved with down here (10y ago) at state and federal level were run on $10k or less, with campaign central providing bunting only. Labor dont get funding locally because they arent seen as having a credible chance, its a catch 22.
Voices for Wannon was the foundation stone for Dyson, it’s a good formulae and i expect they will continue, that is a positive.
I wonder if the people attributing Labors win to Dutton are also attributing the Greens loss to Dutton?
Of more interest to me is who the Liberals choose for their next leader. They’ll probably go with Angus right now, but Hastie is their best talent remaining, in my opinion. He had a good swing to him in WA, so at some point, in either this term or the next, I expect he’ll be LOTO.
The Greens didn’t have a great night at best 2 seats nonetheless they look to have maintained their vote. Look at the bigger picture though the major parties have lost 2% combined – it’s not a vote of confidence in the establishment.
BK @ #27 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 6:18 am
And the Greens who have been punished for trying to block the government doing what it was elected to do.
C@tmomma @ 5.45am
As I left the Wildflower Meadow, yesterday, I was passed by two trucks.
One was a long double semi-trailer.
The other was a garbage truck.
Both were festooned with large Useless Lucy Wicks banners.
My initial response was: “I hope that this is a portent for tonight!”
At least they’ll have the correct vehicle for removing the 10s (or more) kilometres of plastic wrap with which they managed to embalm every surface, near a Polling Station, on Friday morning.
Congratulations to you and all the ALP volunteers for leading Dr Reid to a tremendous and resounding victory.
Cat
Just woke up after not much sleep – and yes this whole thing was not a dream!
Albanese has been underestimated by the Coalition his whole career. Years ago the trope was that he’d eventually lose Grayndler to the Greens. More recently it’s that he is (apparently) ‘weak’, indeed the ‘weakest’ and ‘worst’ PM Australia has ever had.
Repeating that slur ad nauseam doesn’t seem to have achieved anything – but nevertheless I wouldn’t be surprised if he is leader in the 2028 election that the Coalition would use those same lines again.
In fact in that case they probably should save themselves a fortune and just store up all their anti-Albo corflutes and bunting so they can use them next time. Sure to be a winner!
And definitely a cheaper and easier alternative to, you know, actually developing proper policies over the next three years that are remotely realistic (here’s looking at you nuclear!)
This is a great comment from last night and deserves another go around, I reckon:
Desert Qlder
Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 1:08 am
Comment #1598
Until the Greens and their supporters are willing to look inward and reckon with the reasons for their losses, there’s little chance of meaningful renewal.
In the face of a clear electoral rejection, Greens supporters seem unwilling to accept responsibility. Instead, they deflect, blame, and continue the performance.
Defiance is easy. Reflection is hard, but that’s what real political leadership requires.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/03/coalition-leadership-race-angus-taylor-sussan-ley-federal-election-2025
Not wanting to be too hubristic but you’d have to think Labor could realistically expect a 3rd term on the strength on this result. So perhaps the next Liberal PM isn’t in parliament yet?
mj, Labors primary vote went UP.
C@t:
Yes, last night was a terrible result for the Greens. Australians have clearly sent the message that they don’t want minority governments.
Is this the point when Australia’s right wing media became irrelevant. The Murdoch Stokes news and shockjockery ran the normal anti ALP stuff and it made no difference whatsoever. The greens promoted its duopoly bullsh*t to promote their cause and win Labor seats but misjudged the electorate once again. Labor got it right because they understand that Aussies don’t want radical change but will support incremental well thought out reforms. I spent a lot of time arguing with the green crew on the guardian that they should try and grasp what Labor is doing and assist it rather than obstruct it. Now the chief obstruction merchant has lost his seat to the ALP and Queensland has even swung to Labor. Albo has certainly been shown as a top notch strategist and leader. Greens go back to the drawing board and Libs will be licking their wounds in the emergency department and blaming everyone except themselves. Mr Murdoch and Mr Stokes and the shockjockery will be wondering how it all went so bad for their team.
Rocket Rocket,
What did I say throughout the campaign? As much as I disliked Howard I thought he was right when he used to say that he trusted the great good sense of the Australian people.
And The Greens and the Coalition need to learn the lesson that there is a reason why Vanilla is the most popular flavour of ice cream and not Rum and Raisin.
Confessions @ #NaN Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 6:45 am
And they don’t want pipsqueak parties like The Greens demanding that the government bend to their will for their support!
What was the election result in your city or electorate? Look up the map for your seat. By Casey Briggs
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-03/what-was-the-election-result-in-your-state-or-electorate-/105236682