Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.
I’m not presently in a position to offer the result the commentary it undoubtedly deserves, so hopefully the live results feature speaks for itself. Rest assured that this will be supplemented with voluminous analysis of late counting in close races in the weeks to come. Two changes keen observers might note from the close of play last night are that Bendigo is now rated a lineball contest between Labor and the Nationals – which would be an extraordinary success for the latter given the general course of events – and in allowing for the possibility that an independent who is on only 12.6% of first preferences will snowball to victory in Calwell. These changes result from me changing the candidates designated for my three-way projection, which had originally excluded the potential winners.
I have just finished writing an article for Crikey on the Senate race, which should be available to subscribers later this morning (UPDATE: Read all about it). The upshot is that the Coalition will only win two seats in each state, and could be reduced to one on a worst case scenario in Tasmania, which will reduce it to its lowest representation since parliament assumed its present size in 1984. Labor and the Greens look likely to have a majority between them, even without accounting for further left-of-centre votes from David Pocock (who romped home in the Australian Capital Territory), Fatima Payman and Lidia Thorpe.
Yeah, I think we need to wait a bit longer to determine what’s happening in Fremantle. Looks like the current 2CP numbers are only from the central Freo PPVC. Being a Freo local and business owner, I think Hulett will poll strongly here. If the numbers are similar from the Bibra Lake and Cockburn PPVCs, Josh Wilson will be in trouble.
I think the number of signs that Sukkar had out there reminded people of exactly the zero that he had achieved over the past 3 years…
Kirsdarke @ #887 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 4:57 pm
Yeah I probably went too early although she is 500 votes in front which is a not insignificant buffer.
Palmer reckons that this one will be his last election.
They won nothing in 2028.
Babet is not running again in the next election.
So there are some primaries that will be shared between PHON and the Coalition and a reduced wall of noise against which to compete.
Sukkar’s big intervention in the campaign was to convince Dutton to adopt a policy of making mortgage interest payments tax deductible.
Uniquely for economists, the ALL ganged up against it as being a terrible policy.
Max “Can’t Build In My backyard” out the door after he showed the electorate what he really stood for, nimby obstruction.
evads @ #901 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:09 pm
Biggest Prepolling counts in Fremantle with Primary votes:
36.6% Labor v 29.5% Ind in Fremantle (46.1 v. 53.9% 2cp)
45.7% Labor v 15.9% Ind in Cockburn
41.3% Labor v 20.6% Ind in Bibra Lake
Postal votes so far are going 54.4% Labor v. 45.6% Ind.
I think the Cockburn results will probably save Labor in the end there.
Omar, omg, for some reason I thought that technically the vote saving measure was still there for lower house SA voting. Just on the QT.
Simon Birmingham understands the problem but he didn’t say of this while he was an actual Liberal Party minister or shadow minister so I don’t think he gets to complain.
ABC News.. Allegra Spender on the Liberal party winning Wentworth back.. ” only by moving back to the centre “.. problem that’s impossible for the Liberals.. Labor occupies the centre.
I think Jordan Van De Lamb fucked up by running as a Vic Solialist and not just starting a Housing Affordability party seeing as he was a single issue candidate. People in the burbs will never vote for a party with socialist in the name, but would have probably chucked a preference to a party called The Housing Affordability Party or something.
In the SMH..
Ley released a statement on behalf of the party on Sunday afternoon, saying MPs would meet to elect new leaders after counting in tight seats, including the Victorian electorate of Goldstein where Tim Wilson is confident of defeating teal Zoe Daniel, was finished.
Ley praised Dutton for his “outstanding service to Australia”. “Today, our thoughts are also with many Liberal colleagues who have lost their seats,” she said in the written statement that did not explicitly address the leadership question.
Talented MPs and prominent frontbenchers such as Michael Sukkar and David Coleman lost their seats in the bloodbath, with top party sources expecting the party’s pollster Freshwater Research to be dumped after a major polling miss.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/moderate-wipeout-puts-regional-mps-right-wingers-in-box-seat-for-liberal-leadership-20250503-p5lwbp.html
The Murdoch media empire has forfeited more of its waning political influence. For instance, the “Courier Mail” (on Friday) cautioned, in no uncertain terms, about a Labor/Greens House. It didn’t even come close. None of my young relatives read newspapers, and I guess they’re indicative of most of the young. So, whatever the outcome of the Murdoch irrevocable family trust appeal will mean almost zilch, though I do hope the decision goes in the favour of dear Jim, dear Liz & dear Pru.
Scepticsays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 7:21 pm
ABC News.. Allegra Spender on the Liberal party winning Wentworth back.. ” only by moving back to the centre “.. problem that’s impossible for the Liberals.. Labor occupies the centre.
———————
Okay liberals go and fight for it.
Months before election day, the Coalition was soaring. In truth, a catastrophe was already unfolding
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/months-before-election-day-the-coalition-was-soaring-in-truth-a-catastrophe-was-already-unfolding-20250501-p5lvqj.html
Clive isn’t running again because the new donations laws for elections come into effect for the 2028 election. This will impact Gina too.
Byeee!
@Kirsdarke I would lay dollars to donuts that the “cocksure MP” with no idea but who retains their own seat is Angus Taylor himself. It would be so on brand.
Kirsdarke:
I can’t access that Age article. Are names named?
@Arky and Expat – it`s a measure of the leadership/politician vacuum that the Liberals are in that Sussan Ley looks a better option than other names being mentioned.
But she is the deputy leader and has a lot of experience in portfolios and I would expect her to be more in the centre in that position. She is a qualified woman.
I don`t share the view that adding a letter to her name for numerology purposes when she was much younger disqualifies her from being taken seriously just as I haven`t stopped thinking Sarah Hanson-Young is a person of energy and integrity for the Senate despite some clangers she` s dropped at times. Like her `Accidents happen` when asylum seekers were embarking on dangerous sea journeys with organised crime traffickers and drowning on the way.
@DPRee, Chris Pyne who I knew quite well at university (along with Penny Wong, Natasha Stott Despoja and other names in politics/journalism) is a decent man, well respected in South Australia for his work ethic and no, he didn`t and doesn`t take himself that seriously.
His exchanges with fellow Croweater Julia Gillard were not as personal as some think and he is one of the politicians who did not personalise issues the way others do. He actually shared a house with Albanese when they were young politicians in Camberra.
Chris held down that seat of Sturt and was hardworking, approachable and knowledgeable – people outside of Sturt knew who he was but if you asked anybody in Adelaide who the ousted member Stephens was before this election, you`d draw a blank.
2CP Curtin results so far:
TLG 52.4% (up 1.0)
LIB 47.6% (down 1.0)
(source: Poll Bludger 2025 results summary) (Results not final. Could change)
Some more from the SMH.. it’s Freshwater wot dunnit
Throughout the campaign, Dutton insisted that the party’s internal polling showed a closer result than polls published in the mainstream media. Three days out from election day, the Coalition’s pollster recorded a national primary vote of 37 per cent. The election results show the party currently languishing on a primary vote of just 32 per cent.
In the lead-up to polling day, former Liberal MP turned Dutton adviser Jamie Briggs was confidently telling associates that, based on internal polling, there was no need to worry about marginal Liberal-held seats such as Sturt in Adelaide. In the end, Labor picked up the seat easily with a 7 per cent swing.
“It was definitely wrong,” a Liberal frontbencher says of the party’s polling. “We spent millions of dollars on it and will be keen to know what went wrong.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/months-before-election-day-the-coalition-was-soaring-in-truth-a-catastrophe-was-already-unfolding-20250501-p5lvqj.html
Confessions @ #918 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:29 pm
Nope, all the strongest comments appear to be off-the-record or anonymous.
The only on-the-record comment was by Barnaby, who said “Enthusiasm gets ahead of history when people believe you’ll have a one-term government. We’ve only had one in the history of Australia.”
On Clive Palmer I think there are obvious reasons of self interest why he is giving up now. The influence he has sought to buy is now worthless.
There have been a lot of tightly balanced parliaments in the past decade. This won’t be one of them. Labor will control the House. Labor plus Greens will control the Senate. Small right wing micro parties no longer have bargaining power.
Palmer’s sole bargaining chip, Senator Babet, is now worthless very little, apart from his powers of oratory and charisma. Clive will get no return on investment so the investment stops.
Jamie Briggs, who is the second Liberal behind Sophie Mirabella to lose a heartland Liberal seat to an independent.
Why the hell was he advising Dutton?
The more that comes out the more it seems Dutton had a tin ear and cock-sure attitude.
I am just going to nickname Freshwater Polling “Bathwater” now, as in “drank their own”.
I assumed Bathwater was, for internal polling, producing something like 54-46 while saying something along the lines of “but you know, there’s reason to think this is wrong like 2019 and for our public polling we would reweight it to 51.5-48.5, so you aren’t absolutely gone!”
If they were doing internal polls telling the Libs 50-50 no cap two weeks out they really fucked it.
Kirsdarke:
Unthinkable but if true it would seem Barnaby was the only clear thinker among them!
sprocket_says:
“Throughout the campaign, Dutton insisted that the party’s internal polling showed a closer result than polls published in the mainstream media.
…
“It was definitely wrong,” a Liberal frontbencher says of the party’s polling. “We spent millions of dollars on it and will be keen to know what went wrong.”
————
So much went wrong; so many to blame.
A quick internal party review should get to the nub of it.
@Fess – “Why the hell was he advising Dutton”
You’ll love this. In the last week of the campaign as recriminations started to bubble out in advance, there was a piece actually blaming the fact that Jamie Briggs wasn’t travelling with Dutton for the Liberal woes. The author was told by Liberal sources possibly named Jamie that if only Jamie was on the bus all would have been well.
Dutton loves Briggs. Probably regards him as a tough man brung low by wokism or something.
Will be very Interesting to see if/how the coalition dynamic works in coming days/weeks/months and years. While on paper, there’s a narrative that the Nats did Ok and didn’t suffer seat losses or massive swings, and might even win a seat from the ALP, that ignores the fact that if the Liberal party is electorally crippled, then so are the Nats. Littleproud really should resign given the push for nuclear, effective adding significant lead in the saddlebags for the broader campaign, but I doubt he will. For all the talk of the Libs needing to take a long hard look at themselves in the hall of mirrors, the Nats should be doing the same. Otherwise the Nats risk being an ongoing conservative albatross around the neck of the Libs, even if the Libs do manage to reset. But seems very difficult to see how a meaningful reset occurs for the Libs any time soon when ScoMo and then Dutton kept lurching conservative, and they’ve successfully cleaned house and driven all the moderates out of the party. The fact that everyone keeps talking about Libs needing to put in place effectively a ‘caretaker’ leadership team for the foreseeable future just shows how stuck they are for any credible long term options. Eg Even if past senior people like Frydenberg wanted back in, it’s not like they’ve got any safe seats to drop someone into. And why would you want to come back into what will be a hot mess for some time. I reckon from who is left, they should be thinking Julian Lesser and Darren Chester. But they won’t. While I’ve seen some views put that it’s inevitable that the Libs will continue and bounce back in time, you couldn’t necessarily take that as a given. The Democrats went from relevancy to obscurity relatively quickly.
My other key reflection on all of this is that no party or candidate can afford to coast or relax going forward. The ALP may or may not yet lose a ‘safe’ seat in the ACT. While this has been talked about as being surprising, to me, it just seems the counter of ‘teal’ success against blue ribbon liberal seats. From what I can see, that electorate in the south of Canberra is miffed by investment going on in other parts of the ACT, and a very low profile local member. ALP shouldn’t get ahead of themselves, as they are now potentially the next target for teal like independents.
Socratessays:
Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 7:37 pm
On Clive Palmer I think there are obvious reasons of self interest why he is giving up now. The influence he has sought to buy is now worthless.
_________________________
Was he trying to buy influence? I don’t think there is any rational answer that can explain Palmers actions for many years.
The Coalition could still in theory come back.
Jacinda Ardern won NZ Labour’s greatest election victory in 2020 and her party was thrown out three years later. She saw the writing on the wall and committed seppuku rather than lose the election.
Colin Barnett won a thumping majority in 2013 in WA for the second term of his Liberal state government. Four years later they suffered their then most disastrous loss.
Campbell Newman lost in 2015 after winning three years earlier with 62+ percent of the two party preferred vote.
Trump has posted an AI image of himself as Pope on Truth Social:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-04/donald-trump-posts-ai-image-of-himself-as-the-pope/105249728
Senator Blyth has spoken:
“The latter involved moving “towards market-driven solutions to climate change and away from the heavy head of government intervention and regulation”.”
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/liberal-state-president-leah-blyth-has-attacked-the-partys-election-campaign-saying-it-was-fixated-on-shortterm-gimmicks/news-story/4805955482d5de114feb577e9c2927b9
This is so funny because the Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison governments were elected and/or governed opposing market driven solutions to climate change.
As the Nats seem to have held their vote, perhaps the LNP should now be re-branded as the NLP???
Sprocket
“ Some more from the SMH.. it’s Freshwater wot dunnit”
Obviously there was nothing wrong with Liberal policies or candidates. I suppose they think the media were also at fault.
Reminds me of that Simpsons episode where Principle Skinner blames the children.
That reminds me, I’m curious about how the balance of the Coalition is now between Liberals and Nationals?
I know the Liberals have more lower house seats than the Nationals at least, but surely there’s not that much between them now at the moment?
Let’s call it Likud – it literally means National Liberal Movement. That would be a fresh new inage and branding.
Freshwater always seemed too optimistic for the Coalition although in the wash up so was all the other polls.
Arky @ #928 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:42 pm
That definitely sounds like Jamie and therefore something I can believe.
@MSmith – “I don`t share the view that adding a letter to her name for numerology purposes when she was much younger disqualifies her from being taken seriously”
I mean… I don’t think that ALONE disqualifies her from being taken seriously. Bear in mind there’s not a lot of surviving Coalition MPs I would take seriously as leader. Bunch of lightweight culture warriors, foremost among them Angus Taylor, form most of the surviving ranks of any profile.
Kirsdarke I think the LNP would be the senior party after this disaster.
MSmith, thanks for the insight. Pyne comes across as fun but lightweight. He’s been entertaining recently on the 7.30 Report. Just not leader of the opposition material for me.
@DPRee, Chris Pyne who I knew quite well at university (along with Penny Wong, Natasha Stott Despoja and other names in politics/journalism) is a decent man, well respected in South Australia for his work ethic and no, he didn`t and doesn`t take himself that seriously.
His exchanges with fellow Croweater Julia Gillard were not as personal as some think and he is one of the politicians who did not personalise issues the way others do. He actually shared a house with Albanese when they were young politicians in Camberra.
Chris held down that seat of Sturt and was hardworking, approachable and knowledgeable – people outside of Sturt knew who he was but if you asked anybody in Adelaide who the ousted member Stephens was before this election, you`d draw a blank.
Spence @ #852 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 5:58 pm
It was so frustrating! Last night when I was scrutineering I saw ballot papers with just a ‘1’ against our candidate’s name. Extra votes going begging.
davidwh @ #941 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:50 pm
Possibly, just I know that Queensland LNP members either sit in the Liberal or National party room and I’m not entirely sure which are which.
Thanks to Trump and his outrageous lies and claims on F#xnews and Sky, I wonder how many people now filter there media. This could be the silent majority that don’t comment or take part in Polls etc but do vote. This could account for the polls being a bit out.
They may as well just share one room this term. There are not enough for two rooms.
Nath
I also see no evidence of any political program by Palmer in his election tilts.
In the absence of that I think self interest is the rational default assumption.
davidwh @ #946 Sunday, May 4th, 2025 – 7:53 pm
Yeah, a merger of the federal parties would probably be on the table at this point.
Either way, Littleproud is probably going to insist on more Nationals in the Shadow Cabinet given the losses to the Liberals yesterday.
Wonder which Morrison era pet shop galah will take over as leader of the Liberals. The won’t learn.
Speaking with a well connected Liberal friend. Albanese and Labor will win the next two elections at least. It will take them to the 2031 election to work out what the problem is. The need a clean out.
Every election the media creates this massive narrative about the LNP getting smashed (NSW, QLD) only for pre-polls to make the win less decisive. We’re seeing the same thing yet again here where so many seats were called too early (Kooyong, Menzies)… of course it doesn’t change the fact that Labor’s majority is hefty but it’s just annoying to see repeated so often.