A major campaign milestone is reached today with the commencement of early voting. The third of the campaign’s leaders’ debates will be conducted from 7:30pm this evening by the Nine Network, to be moderated by A Current Affair host Ally Langdon with questions posed by Charles Croucher of Nine, Deb Knight of 2GB and Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review. The Roy Morgan poll that normally comes out on Monday will presumably be along later today. Note that there is a new post below this one on a state poll for New South Wales.
Other than that:
• The Courier-Mail reports a DemosAU poll collectively targeting the Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan has the Liberal National Party on 36% and the Greens and Labor on 29% each, compared with 35.7% for the LNP, 30.7% for the Greens and 26.2% for Labor at the 2022 election. Were the implied swings to occur uniformly across the three seats, the likely outcome would be Labor gaining Brisbane and the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith. The poll was conducted “mid-April” from a sample of 1087. UPDATE: The poll further includes a finding of 56-44 two-party preferred between Labor and the LNP and 55-45 between the Greens and the LNP.
• The Financial Review reports a Nationals source as being “pessimistic about Cowper”, where Pat Conaghan is under pressure from teal independent Caz Heise, but believing the party to be ahead in Calare, where former Nationals member Andrew Gee seeks re-election as an independent and teal independent Kate Hook is again in the field after performing strongly in 2022. In the latter case, the source says “if only one independent had run, that independent would have won”.
• The News Corp papers report that One Nation is changing its how-to-vote cards in Hunter and Paterson to elevate the Coalition, having initially favoured right-wing minor parties and independents, and is reviewing the situation elsewhere. Hanson’s chief-of-staff, James Ashby, is quoted saying the party was “was restructuring its preferences in seats where the Trumpet of Patriots has put the chance of a conservative candidate’s success ‘at risk’” – though this is not in fact the case in Hunter or Paterson, where Palmer’s party has Labor last in keeping with its approach of directing against sitting members (in a related development, its candidate for Flinders is telling voters to put him last out of displeasure at his how-to-vote card favouring teal independent Ben Smith). The only seats I can think of where One Nation does not already have the Coalition ahead of everyone it could conceivably lose to are Kennedy, where Bob Katter is presumably safe, and Monash, where a second preference is recommended for Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent, for whom Trumpet of Patriots has made an exception by placing him third behind another independent.
My points go to Charles Croucher and Michelle Grattan for spotting the one thing in the debate that won’t be totally forgotten tomorrow.
Yup @William – debates themselves rarely matter in Australia, but what can matter is what the coverage focuses on and what the campaigns can use out of them.
Albo mentioned medicare scare three times in the first two minutes of his air time.
That’s all you got. Dig deep, a medicare scare campaign. Don’t worry about the budget deficits and a $trillion + debt, a broken $275 promise, and a failed intermittent energy scheme.
At least Dutton would leave a real legacy, nuclear energy, that all of you would support had it been proposed by Labor – admit it!
*night
Yes Doctor Doolittle it seemed like like they thought they were Labor 2022 where they had a big massive lead where in reality their Labor 2019 where they were 51 to 49 which should erase alarm bells in the liberal campaign because it seems to me that they got lazy also someone said on Reddit they didn’t even have a chance and helve even getting majority but they could only got minority but they probably won’t even listen I’m listen I I made some predictions that both major parties in January won’t be happy now looks like one’s only gonna be happy hell we had that news poll info saying that the coalition lost votes from the women and the 18 to 35
jt1983 don’t you have friends on the inside I wonder how their feels anyway yeah basically kos basically said it think today on someone in the comments that because early voting you have to get your policies out before the early voting period starts not too weaks basically he said that the campaigning would started with the whole Medicare GP bulk bulk billing where’s the liberals spent the week Tacking work from home and wondering why people weren’t interested I I think that a chance for minority but when they went Trump and didn’t realize people hated him like he kept repeating that polling now that resolve had that 68% hate Trump and I know Gina’s supports you but that doesn’t really matter if you get into government in in the next six months your terminal
Expat says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 10:26 pm
@Griff
I’m sure you already know this, but Reason ultimately was a vehicle for Fiona Patten.
Fiona is now the lead Victorian senate candidate for Legalise Cannabis, so while there’s no Reason candidate in your electorate, you can obviously still vote Fiona for the senate!
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Thanks for the response. I am in NSW so not so easy to vote for Fiona Patten. My issue with Legalise Cannabis is the lack of policy platform that Reason (and Fusion) had.
I will be voting Patton because she believes tax deductions for religious organisations should end. Time it did.
I missed the debate (live) but I will catch up with it soon.
I attended the Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United game at Suncorp instead.
At a 1-1 draw, it was never the less a win for the Roar as they have only won 3 games out of their last 24.
Ms 98.6 summed up the debate, not unlike most of PBers, that it was a draw at best and just a rehash of what we already know.
Still, we will most probably watch the 4th episode as self-flagellation for being political tragics.
Griff @ #706 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 10:43 pm
It honestly really is a shame that it became so difficult for someone like Fiona Patten to be elected. She’s very reasonable, hence the name behind the party she tried to be elected upon, but all that resulted in was losing to the Labor rat Adem Somyurek under the new DLP.
I remember watching Sunrise in 2006 or 2007 when they held a debate between Patten and a Family First woman and Patten debated in good faith while the FFP woman chanted “No that’s wrong. No that’s wrong” every 5 seconds.
And yes, I do hope that Legalise Cannabis can figure out something that can be popular enough about policies other than legalising narcotics so they’d be strong enough to flip seats.
@Quentin – I’m leaving them alone, mostly, since we’re at the pointy end.
The last nuggets were the Libs were resigned to the outcome, and Labor peeps remain “optimistic”.
No one expects this to be anything other than a Labor Government.
If Dutton loses, the recriminations will be interesting. Some Sky News commentators will continue to shout their garbage about adopting the Trump platform etc. I wonder how the Libs will manage them noting they have done more harm than good. I notice that Sky does turn its crazy dial up and down i.e. dial up and down the amount of Rowan Dean
“If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 55.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.”
I don’t believe it either! Who are these 44% of the population who would vote for Dutton?
All jokes aside, I like the trend, but I do think that may be a little too generous.
@MABWM
If these polls are correct, it would appear in the media that the extra seats are in play for Labor. It would come up in Labor sources, new seats, they are putting resources into. You wouldn’t just tinker on the edges with a couple of seats (Bullwinkle, Brisbane, and Sturt, etc). It might come up in Liberal sources, too, although in the last election, the Liberals were exaggerating how competitive they were to create a false narrative that was beneficial to them in the media.
I just googled Clive Palmer’s wealth, its 3.4 billion $. (Forbes)
Last election he spent $123 million on the federal election.
This year he has indicated he will only spend about half that.
If I had that sort of money I would spend $1 billion trying to get Labor elected.
And I would still have 2.4 billion $ left.
Clive is a tight arse.
On a pro-rata basis I have donated more of my wealth to the party I want to win than he has.
“Insider reports” say what the parties want them to say – and regardless of the direction – it’s in both major’s interests to make sure it looks very tight.
Deakin and Menzies
98.6says:
If I had that sort of money I would spend $1 billion trying to get Labor elected.
And I would still have 2.4 billion $ left.
_________________
What about the next election? going to drop another billion on that too?
You are a disgrace to hypothetical billionaires.
No Dutton did not “win the debate” Nine News is horribly biased and they were the only news network to call a coalition win back in 2016 based on their exit poll alone while all other networks said the election was too close to call. Just 1 example, but they are biased.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:15 pm
“If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 55.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.”
I don’t believe it either! Who are these 44% of the population who would vote for Dutton?
All jokes aside, I like the trend, but I do think that may be a little too generous.
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I too like the trend ( no, I love) and I’m glad to run with it until a trend shows otherwise.
I’m putting 2019 behind us and from now on I’m telling anyone who’ll listen that at this moment in the election campaign I believe Labor will win.
By how much you ask?
At least 78 seats +.
98.6:
That was me what said:
“I don’t believe it either! Who are these 44% of the population who would vote for Dutton?
All jokes aside, I like the trend, but I do think that may be a little too generous.”
ANU: Analysis of 2025 Budget and Albanese Government Tax and Welfare Changes
https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/analysis-2025-budget-and-albanese-government-tax-and-welfare-changes
I know this has been shared already, but has anyone matched the outcomes with polling trends?
If you want to know more about the background of the Fusion party, check this out. Its by André Brett.
https://axvoter.tumblr.com/post/781155980181389312/blatantly-partisan-party-review-x-federal-2025
Blatantly Partisan Party Review X (federal 2025): FUSION
“Earlier this year, Fusion formed an alliance with two extra parties. One, the Australian Progressives, is not too objectionable, although I hadn’t realised they still existed. They have gone from being broadly centre-left in their presentation to pitching themselves as not “‘left’ or ‘right’—we’re about moving forward, ie. PROGRESS”. They describe themselves as motivated by “evidence, not ideology”, which makes them a good fit with Fusion (I’ll discuss that claim more below), and state that they sit in the “sensible centre”, a phrase almost invariably used by people who are neither sensible nor in the centre (usually well to the right).
The other partnership that Fusion established is incredibly, unbelievably stupid. They have welcomed into their camp Democracy First, a decidedly right-wing anti-migrant vehicle of serial candidate Vern Hughes. Yes, the Vern Hughes. This is shockingly bad and raises serious questions about the judgement of Fusion’s leadership. Hughes has belonged to more parties than you’ve had hot dinners in the last week: by my count, he has stood as a candidate for at least eight groupings, promoted numerous extra parties that never attained registration, and his most recent outing was in 2022 for the lunar-right Australian Federation Party (now the Trumpet of Patriots). Democracy First is openly Trumpian—they have a 12-point platform (more a rant) to “drain the swamp in Canberra”—and it is an unwelcome inclusion in the Fusion fold.”
jt1983 yeah I don’t think pollings really going to change unless something really something big happens Labour’s got this
nathsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:32 pm
98.6says:
If I had that sort of money I would spend $1 billion trying to get Labor elected.
And I would still have 2.4 billion $ left.
_________________
What about the next election? going to drop another billion on that too?
You are a disgrace to hypothetical billionaires.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
What about the next election, you ask.
In the words of Graham Richardson “Whatever it takes”,
Yes I would.
I did admire Former PM Malcolm Turnbull who donated $1.75 million to the Liberal campaign while he was PM.
I believe he was worth approx $30 million at the time.
So his donation on a pro-rata basis leaves Clive’s paltry amount in the shade.
If you’re rich, what are you going to use your money for after the first several million $.
Some say Turnbull was buying himself a job.
Do you think he gives a F**K what people thought at the time.
The 55.5% 2PP is not realistic. That would be a massive landslide and that’s not on the cards. Labor’s big wins in 1972, 1983 and 2007 all had 2PP’s around 53%. The last time Labor was over 54% in a Federal election was 1946.
Morgan is on the right track. The swing is on. We can see its progress over the last 8-10 weeks. It will continue right thru to May 3 as voters focus their thoughts on the choice
– ‘safe hands’ vs ‘abject stupidity’
In WA Bullwinkle is good for Labor. Moore too. Canning and Forrest are possible.
From my observations on prepoll middle-aged men are conspicuously choosing Labor. This cohort often favours the Reactionaries but not this time. Younger voters are avoiding the Reactionary volunteers as if they have the plague. Women of all ages, of course, continue to prefer Labor quite markedly. It would not surprise me if the counter- reactionary vote, including Labor, the Greens and the Independents – approaches the high 60s in this State. I don’t know if the data can be obtained, but young people absolutely reject the Liberals.
Labor will improve their 2PP vote in WA. We did very well last time. We will do even better this time. Close to 60/40.
But yes – no one actually thinks a 2PP of the Morgan figure is in the realms of possibility.
Well… apart from he above me.
98.6says:
I did admire Former PM Malcolm Turnbull who donated $1.75 million to the Liberal campaign while he was PM.
I believe he was worth approx $30 million at the time.
___________________
Turnbull is worth around 150-200 million. At least he was getting something out of a 2 million investment into the LNP.
What’s the Fat Man getting out of his triennial spectacle of pissing tens of millions of dollars up against a wall? Who knows.
Post from Larry David regarding Bill Maher’s dinner with Donald Trump from the New York Times
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/curb-your-enthusiasm-for-donald-trump
I have a strong feeling that Bill Maher won’t be able to shrug off something like this from Larry David.
Could be a Brewster’s Millions type deal whereby Clive has to spend away his fortune without obtaining assets in order to receive an even bigger fortune from a deceased estate.
Wow. Morgan with a moe of say 2.5% and this could be 58/42.
Oblivion beckons. Forget measuring up the curtains, time to procure some phone booths instead a la WA.
Dutton “winning” the third debate is like Qld or NSW winning the first two matches of the State of Origin then magically the oppostion team wins the final round.
nath at 11.59 pm
What’s the Fat Man getting out of his triennial spectacle of pissing tens of millions of dollars up against a wall? Who knows.
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I’ve followed Clive for decades and I know why he pisses ten of millions of $ up against a wall.
Some of the reasons he does it is because he can:-
He can do anything he likes eg close down the nickel refinery in Townsville.
He can become an MP in the House of Reps.
He can fall asleep in parliament.
He is like Trump and he can do what he likes because he has billions of $s.
He has no shame.
The money he spends on political ads is less than peanuts to him.
He doesn’t give a f**k what you or I say about him.
He loves to prove his critics wrong.
@hack woke partisan, are you sure on Bullwinkle The state booths were rough for labor and those pesky sheep people seem to have invested so much in Tangney and Bullwinkle.
Goodenough appears to be running a fairly visible campaign in Moore so wouldn’t be surprised if he polled okay and hopefully delivers some votes back to labor.
Leroy says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:46 pm
Not sure where my response went, but thanks for the information. I shall read the other blog entries as well.
@hack woke partisan, are you sure on Bullwinkle The state booths were rough for labor and those pesky sheep people seem to have invested so much in Tangney and Bullwinkle.
Goodenough appears to be running a fairly visible campaign in Moore so wouldn’t be surprised if he polled okay and hopefully delivers some votes back to labor.
A reasonable day on pre-poll today in Tangney. A fair bit of love for Sam Lim.
jt1983 says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:59 pm
But yes – no one actually thinks a 2PP of the Morgan figure is in the realms of possibility.
Well… apart from he above me.
The swing is on. There’s no stopping it. Dutton is without any doubt the very worst LOTO we have ever seen. He makes Mark Latham appear Prime Ministerial. The Reactionaries really have no policies to speak of and have run a self-wedging campaign from the very outset. Furthermore, the name Donald Trump appears alongside that of every Liberal candidate. Voters are scared of Trump and their fears will be projected onto Dutton and his party.
Roll on May 3.
I live in Moore, and have lived in it, or in neighbouring parts of Cowan, since 1993.
I can confirm Goodenough’s running a visible campaign, his face is EVERYWHERE on signs in Moore, as is Liberal Vince Connelly’s, Labor Tom French’s, Nathan Barton’s (who’d be a Lib Dem if he was British), and the One Nation candidate too. For the first time in my voting life (I became voting age in 2009), Moore feels like a competitive seat.
Add in the fact that Goodenough is running an open ticket… and enough voters of his voting Labor either by donkey voting or out of spite… don’t be surprised if Labor gain Moore, their first victory in the seat since 1987. And back then, Moore contained rural territory about as far north as Jurien Bay.
nath at 11.59 pm
What’s the Fat Man getting out of his triennial spectacle of pissing tens of millions of dollars up against a wall? Who knows.
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Speaking of the Fat Man, Clive always reminds me of the main character in the TV series called ‘Jake and the Fat Man” played by William Conrad.
Strange enough, I saw an episode of the series on one of those weird channels (free to air) only yesterday.
Adam Banks says:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 12:26 am
@hack woke partisan, are you sure on Bullwinkle The state booths were rough for labor and those pesky sheep people seem to have invested so much in Tangney and Bullwinkle.
Oh I think Labor should win it. The population-dense parts of the electorate – the Eastern flanks excised from Burt and Hasluck – will be very solid. I think Tom French can succeed in Moore. The Lib vote is split. Tom is a great candidate and has run before…gradually wearing down the margin. The sheep people might get 2 or 3% of the vote…and their prefs will scatter.
I’d like to think the swing will be enough to topple Hastie. We’ll see. He’s pretending to be not-a-Lib.
The thing is there is no voter animosity for Labor. None. The State Government is well-liked. The Federal Liberals are clearly not even slightly interested in WA and their State machine barely exists. On pre-poll, they look like they’re ready to give in after Day 1.
This election is a partial referendum of the Opposition and on Dutton. They are going to get a decisive No from WA voters.
Anton Kreitzer says:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 12:39 am
I live in Moore, and have lived in it, or in neighbouring parts of Cowan, since 1993.
I can confirm Goodenough’s running a visible campaign, his face is EVERYWHERE on signs in Moore, as is Liberal Vince Connelly’s, Labor Tom French’s, Nathan Barton’s (who’d be a Lib Dem if he was British), and the One Nation candidate too. For the first time in my voting life (I became voting age in 2009), Moore feels like a competitive seat.
Add in the fact that Goodenough is running an open ticket… and enough voters of his voting Labor either by donkey voting or out of spite… don’t be surprised if Labor gain Moore, their first victory in the seat since 1987. And back then, Moore contained rural territory about as far north as Jurien Bay.
Good to learn this…thanks. I admire Tom’s perseverance. Moore is winnable and he has dedicated himself to it. There are many parts of the seat that form natural country for Labor. If he wins he will become unbeatable. He works very hard.
@HWP yep, Tom is a really good guy and appears to have pretty good name recognition from last time. Goodenough seems to have a very good campaign and also very deep networks through the various faith groups out that way. I’d enjoy watching Moore turn red! I dare not to dream of turfing out Hastie.
The sheep people have been spoiling the streets of Tangney for 6 months with their pesky signs. Can’t tell if anyone is interested beyond the retired farmers. The Nats candidate for the state seat of Bateman was convinced she was going to do well and struggled to 5% of the vote so perhaps it’s a noisy minority.
Bullwinkle is such a weird seat. Hopefully Trish Cook can eek out a win based on the suburban part of the vote.
Curtin is the other one I’ll watch with interest. I thought Chaney was toast a few months ago but given the state of the polls, she may hold on. The West Australian’s petty campaign against her may actually end up helping her.
Adam Banks says:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 12:57 am
I love Labor voters. They are just brilliant.
The full Larry David bit is legendary. What a takedown of a deserving target that is.
As a someone who lives in a seat next to Bullwinkle, it is a hard to judge electorate from its various bits (suburbs, suburban fringe, and rural hubs), if there is no to little swing either way, it will go labor (obviously), if the polls are somehow overstating labors vote, it could still stay (I know a new seat but notionally it is ALP) Labor depending on how the suburban fringe votes, if it is close to the state results for those seats then it will go handily to labor (people point to the swings against labor at a state level, but those were off the back of two elections with 15%+ swings for a cumulative 30%, the seats are still comfortably Labor or 50/50 (excluding Central wheatbelt but more on that later).
Forrestfield (fully within Bullwinkle) primary vote is ALP 41% vs lib 32% with 2pp 54 to ALP.
Half of Midland (a seat with remarkable consistency of vote across booths) with ALP primary of 40 vs 26(!!) Lib, 2pp of 60/40 to ALP.
Kalamunda (wholly within Bullwinkle) ALP pv of 32 vs 31 Lib, with libs ending up winning 50.1 vs 49.9. And then Central Wheatbelt (small western portion within bullwinkle), with the portion that sits in Bullwinkle being the bits for Labor (york, northam, and toodyay and their surrounds) with a ALP Primary vote of typically 24% in those booths, libs manage mid teens (14,16 etc) but the big player is the Nats, (typically 43% ish in those booths).
And it is the Nats that could make it interesting, if the Central wheatbelt portion goes strongly enough for the NATs, and there are disaffected Lib and ALP voters in the areas from other seats who put the Nats above Labor and Liberal, we could end up with the Nats sneaking through, adding to that chance is the Nat candidate of Mia Davies, well known, well liked, you would get a good number of people who might be looking for an alternative to Labor or the LNP who will pick her over the others (Mia is far more closer to an independent in the style of Sharkie in Mayo than people realise. She called out Barnaby and his deplorable behaviour, supported the voice and opposed the federal Nat stance publicly, to name a few things). So my money would be if Labor doesn’t win Bullwinkle, then Mia Davies will likely win instead of the Libs
Arky says:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 1:05 am
The problem with satire, you don’t know if it is satire.. if you look at YouTube on this “take down”I prefer Kieth Olbermanns portrayal of Bill Maher.. a total fuck wit .. Kieth isn’t being satirical.
Thanks to everyone who ran commentary on the debate – much easier to follow than in the media.
I think three debates is already too many, let alone four. Maybe should just have one ‘town hall’ style one and one normal one.
Clearly though Labor feel the more people see Dutton the better it is for Labor.
Andrew Hastie removed all Liberal branding from campaign material.
Why do they do that (whatever party they are in), it doesn’t fool anyone.
Morgan Green figure looks two high, they have been very consistent with everyone, so probably take 1.5% from them and add to PHON and OTH.
I can believe 54.5%, hard to think of of comparably terrible campaign for libs, unpopular leader, unpopular policies, no senior party member to take the spotlight from Dutton except Angus Taylor.
As a challenge, name something good about the Liberal campaign that is working for them, I can’t think of anything right now.
New thread.