With the start of early voting yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission related on its X account that 230,000 votes had been cast by midday eastern time, which compares with around 315,000 on the totality of the first day in 2022.
Horse race latest:
• The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspolls conducted since late March. Compared with the previous aggregate covering the earlier part of the year, this finds Labor going from 51-49 behind nationally to 52-48 ahead; from 50-50 to 52-48 ahead in New South Wales (a Labor swing of around 0.5%); from 51-49 to 53-47 ahead in Victoria (a Coalition swing of 2%); from 57-43 to 54-46 behind in Queensland (no swing); from 50-50 to 55-45 ahead in South Australia (a Labor swing of 1%); but with no change at 54-46 ahead in Western Australia (a Coalition swing of 1%). The state-level trends in BludgerTrack have been updated with these results, and the full demographic voting intention breakdowns can be found through the “poll data” tab. Notable among the latter is the opening of a substantial gender gap: where the Coalition led by 51-49 among both men and women in the first quarter, the latest result has men breaking 50-50 and Labor leading 54-46 among women. Labor’s lead among renters is out from 59-41 to 65-35, and it now leads 54-46 among mortgage payers after trailing 51-49 last time.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll continues to skate away from the pack, the Labor two-party lead out from 54.5-45.5 to fully 55.5-44.5 on both the respondent-allocated and previous election preferences measures. The primary votes are Labor 34.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 34% (up half), Greens 14.5% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The declaration of candidates has meant respondents are now receiving response options tailored to their local electorates, which as usual means a drop in measured support for independents, down two-and-a-half points to 7.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1605.
• The Australian reports Liberal sources now expect gains in Victoria “to be limited to between two and four seats”. Chisholm and Aston are “most likely” to fall, but McEwen is only “possible”. Talk remains hopeful with respect to Goldstein, but there is “increasing doubt” about Kooyong, with a state MP saying revelations about Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer’s “rental saga” have cost her support among younger voters. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review notes Peter Dutton’s campaign movements belie such pessimism, Monday having been spent in Dunkley and Gorton. A source is quoted saying One Nation is soaking up the substantial right-wing minor party vote that has lately developed in Melbourne’s outer suburbs at the expense of Clive Palmer, whose Trumpet of Patriots party is “bombing”.
• A Liberal source quoted in The Australian’s report identifies Bruce as a possible upset win for the party. A report by Charlotte Grieve in The Age today casts doubt on the “small businessman” bona fides of Liberal candidate Zahid Safi, pointing to a number of NDIS-related entities in which he has been officially involved that appear not to exist in practice.
Dutton clearly getting very cocky about winning back 100% inner seat Teals and middle east communities in Western Sydney and goes ahead and announces a compassionate system of re-vetting Palestinian refugees. This must be the most skill-fully managed election campaign ever in the history of democracy. And before you ask, there are no costings for this, or the boost to defence announced , but OK we will renege on tax costs and renege on wiping HECS debt to partly pay for some of it. We think. But before you ask again don’t. Costings will be revealed in due course. Wow. Have they given up? AEC should bring forward election day to save them more misery.
Transcript: Don Jr. and MAGA Erupt as GOPers Start Turning on Hegseth
As Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sinks deeper into scandal and Republicans start abandoning him, a shrewd national security observer explains why President Trump has no easy way out.
https://newrepublic.com/article/194234/transcript-don-jr-maga-erupt-gopers-start-turning-hegseth
mj: When are the major parties going to question the ongoing viability of AUKUS and a joined at the hip US alliance?
Definitely not during the election campaign. All the best policies are the policies that come up because some event intervened between elections, so the government had a free hand to do what was right for society. All the worst policies are also the policies that come up between elections. The policies that the winners propose at election time are just the ones that mean the media won’t laugh at them. If there’s a policy that’s important to you, you better make darn sure it isn’t a topic at the election, because otherwise you’ll just get a milquetoast outcome. And if—pray that it doesn’t happen—the parties have already discussed your policy during an election campaign, make darn well sure that you can present circumstances as having changed. Don’t say “it was always a bad idea, I told you then that it would fail, you should take my advice now”: say, “It was definitely a reasonable idea then, back when we made the decision, but unfortunately, circumstances outside of our control have meant that we must change course, so I present this idea, which is essentially the same as the old idea, just modified for the new circumstances: instead of buying nuclear powered submarines for a forward defence, let’s reduce the cost of living and increase the birth rate so that we can have the labour force needed to build domestic nuclear submarines” (or whatever your proposal be).
No, elections aren’t menus where you carefully consider the parties’ platforms and select the menu that is tastiest to you. You just vote for whatever your gut tells you is best – this bloke is our kinda guy, or I’m a rusted on wingnut, or she’ll stick it to ’em. You don’t have an alternative. You can’t pick the best menu. You can’t even pick a menu. Your voting for people, not policies. At the end of the day, if you like this politician’s platform, you’re only going to vote for them because of their platform if you trust them, or if you take the platform as some kind of indicator as to the nature of the person. It’s about the relationship between you and the person.
Feel sorry for Palestinians badly let down by labor who should have told them to junk Hamas.
But no fed labor gov decided to chase west Sydney votes at the expense of good policy and also trashed Israel as well.
So the Palestinians pay the price .
Mind you nothing stopping them dumping Hamas but they prefer war.
Geez any chance labor will back a winner as China and Hamas are losers.
”
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:04 pm
Albos got a policy keeping our critical minerals from our besties China .AFR tonight.
Why Labor?
Chinas our trusted friend you jumped back into bed with them after covid.
Did you make a mistake do not trust them now?
Should have seen the stampede out of China by western companies which has smashed its economy.Now also its Trade rort is over with tariffs imposed.
But Albanese loves communists.
USA not a super power claim labor luvvies
”
This is pure 4chan trolling.
Thanks for showing how 4chan website works because I will never go near that website.
”
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:14 pm
Feel sorry for Palestinians badly let down by labor who should have told them to junk Hamas.
But no fed labor gov decided to chase west Sydney votes at the expense of good policy and also trashed Israel as well.
So the Palestinians pay the price .
Mind you nothing stopping them dumping Hamas but they prefer war.
”
You are an expert in 4chan trolling.
4chan trolling! 4chan trolling! 4chan trolling! 4chan trolling! 4chan trolling! 4chan trolling! 4chan trolling!
While Hastie seems quite personable, former ADF officers would probably not have
read, for instance, Machiavelli – a must, I think, to do well in politics. Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War” was likely more up his alley. Furthermore, he’s reported to be quite religious. A combination of army officer indoctrination and religiosity makes him vulnerable in a political environment, where it’s often the case of dog-eat-dog. I presume Dutton warned him not to submit himself to the interrogation of Henderson.
who would the smart money be on to lead the Libs after Dutton?
i encountered the Lib running in Reid (Grange Chung) at the park today, a nice enough chap but on interrogation identified as a monarchist, Abbott > Turnbull, right winger that is totally out of kilter with the kind of candidate that could win this seat (a moderate like Laundy or Fiona Martin). Seemed to react philosophically when told that this seat didnt suit him and even then no way could consider Dutton as PM. Only today got around to catching Albo on the Rest is Politics podcast and thought he was fantastic
I personally am not overly fussed with a need for majority Labor govt – given they are going to need Green/Lambie/Pocock to get anything thru the senate, having to get a couple out of 13 or so crossbenchers in the Reps would prob require the same degree of compromise anyway
Coalition >60 they would prob leap at if offered now? Ordinarily would like to see that teal take Bradfield except for her absurdly stupid let alone unacceptable hairdresser faux pas
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:14 pm
Feel sorry for Palestinians badly let down by labor who should have told them to junk Hamas.
But no fed labor gov decided to chase west Sydney votes at the expense of good policy and also trashed Israel as well.
So the Palestinians pay the price .
Mind you nothing stopping them dumping Hamas but they prefer war.
========================================================
Who do you actually believe would believe your fake propaganda that Labor supports Hamas on here?
So why do you actually bother with it?
Zero effort by labor telling the Palestinians to dump Hamas.
Says it all.
This fact is because labor supports Hamas.Thankyou I am right!
Grubby vote grabbing exercise.When they realised the votes were not in it later on they go silent as they do not care for Palestinians.
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:21 pm
Zero effort by labor telling the Palestinians to dump Hamas.
Says it all.
==============================================
How do Palestinians dump Hamas anyway?
If they claim they did would Israel believe they had?
Gotta love RWNJ’s almost superhuman ability to shift goalposts while making nonsensical strawmen.
Pegasussays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 8:06 pm
When the government changes, the country…well, not so much anymore
The two-party shuffle is a dance of stasis
https://tdunlop.substack.com/p/when-the-government-changes-the-countrywell
**
Pegasussays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 8:02 pm
A minority
… is the only government that will bring political change
https://nickfeik.substack.com/p/a-minority?r=bhqa3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
______________________
You are just posting recuts of largely the same talking points from increasingly obscure commentators – you might as well start using ChatGTP to get a bit of variety.
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:21 pm
Zero effort by labor telling the Palestinians to dump Hamas.
Says it all.
=====================================================
Dutton never asked them to do that either. So is he just as grubby?
sprocket at 6.12 pm
Thanks for that report. It outlines the real basis for US efforts to stop, i.e. suspend, Putin’s war by freezing the front line.
That had already been hinted at by Kellogg or Witkoff, maybe by both.
Yes, Trump is forcing Ukraine to accept that it has lost some territory.
That was the reality behind Trump’s infamous disparagement of Zelenskyy two months ago.
There is a serious strategic question: what is the realistic alternative?
It is likely that the Germans will find it easier to go along with a freezing of Putin’s war than to supplant the US as Ukraine’s principal military backer.
Hence it is far from clear that the EU, Biden’s loyal ally, will actually make Trump’s plan unworkable. Putin may do so but perhaps he may not.
Some specific points need clarity.
Ukraine does not have a say in joining NATO. Trump has already ruled that out. It is off the table. By refusing to end Putin’s war in April 2022, Ukraine lost the potential benefit of accepting that it will not join NATO, which was a primary reason for Putin’s war, according to David Arakhamia, the head of Zelenskyy’s political party.
Ukraine de facto accepted Russian control of Crimea on 28 February 2014 when it chose firstly not to fight for Crimea, and secondly not to ask the US to intervene then to stop Russia annexing Crimea.
Of course Russia broke international law, as did the US over Iraq. Putin has never respected international law.
The interesting point of the outlined US proposal is US operation of the Zaporizhzhie nuclear plant. Perhaps Putin recognises Russia does not need that plant economically. Obviously if there were US engineers at that plant the Russians would be less likely to fire on it. The plant is near the front line.
There is a long way to go yet in the negotiations to end Putin’s war. But if Putin agrees with the broad proposal as outlined, it has more chance of being realised than any alternative.
You can call it Trump’s appeasement of Putin, but the harsh reality of such a stuttering end to Putin’s war has been a long time coming.
Ever since, firstly, the Russian advances in the east in the summer of 2022, and secondly the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive a year later, this has been the most likely outcome of Putin’s brutal war.
Remember that, in November 2022, Gen Milley said that Ukraine could not force a full Russian withdrawal, so a negotiated end to Putin’s war had by then become a strategic imperative.
Biden had two years to help end Putin’s war in a way that respected Ukraine’s gutsy self-defence, to the extent that is strategically feasible. He failed even to try.
As with the tragedy of Netanyahu’s war, the horror of Putin’s war has continued partly because there was no coherent US and Western strategy.
Entropy says Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:23 pm
From what I understand, the ones who have tried have not had a good outcome. The IDF might well be the lesser danger.
I am not overly fussed with a need for majority Labor govt – given they are going to need Green/Lambie/Pocock to get anything thru the senate, having to get a couple out of 13 or so crossbenchers in the Reps would prob require the same degree of compromise anyway.
@Expat Follower
I understand your point, but a government majority is viewed more favorably in terms of legitimacy than a minority government. The public knows that a government won’t get a majority in the Senate often, or in Labor’s case, not at all.. So while it can cause problems getting legislation through, it’s never a question whether they have a legitimate mandate with the voters.
bcsays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:33 pm
Entropy says Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:23 pm
How do Palestinians dump Hamas anyway?
From what I understand, the ones who have tried have not had a good outcome. The IDF might well be the lesser danger.
=========================================================
It wasn’t a serious question though. Just an attempt to see if PP would answer a question arising from the garbage he posts. As normal he will just probably move on and post new garbage instead.
Quote: “The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.”
Note: Obviously this site is considered the media by PP, as he shits on it regularly.
Arkysays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 9:55 pm
I just had the misfortune of seeing First Dog’s latest “cartoon” for the Guardian. They need to do a welfare check on that guy, it’s such a staggeringly whiny anti-Albo temper tantrum – slash- foot-stomping total meltdown, every toy out of the pram style.
_____________________
Actually, I’d describe it like as if Boerwar suddenly became a Greens member and starter to illustrate their listicles. Though the tone is a bit more PP.
I am absolutely amazed that Pied Piper gets a response, yet here we go, Entropy of all people.
Maybe Leftie got it right!
Political Nightwatchman @ #619 Wednesday, April 23rd, 2025 – 11:37 pm
Yeah, and going from the playbook of the Abbott Opposition of 2010-2013, they pretty much constantly made motions of no confidence and other frivolous motions that had to be played out by the book, which wasted a lot of time and tested everyone’s patience.
And it worked out really well for them in terms of news coverage, pretty much the first story of every news report being “Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott says…”
pied piper says:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 10:28 pm
Exports to the USA represent 3% of Chinese GDP.
It might well be that China entirely closes down this sector of its economy and redeploys the resources to other purposes. The losers would be US corporates and consumers.
China has already frozen purchases of gas, beef, soybeans, sorghum and Boeing jets. They have suspended shipments of critical minerals.
China can very easily adapt to the cessation of two-way trade with the US. This would possibly be very advantageous to China. Trump should be careful what he wishes for.
Been Theresays:
Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 11:40 pm
I am absolutely amazed that Pied Piper gets a response, yet here we go, Entropy of all people.
================================================
So i was bored and attempted something futile. If there was still some good conversation running i wouldn’t have tried it. I blame everyone else for being boring.
Kirs so you’re feeling mate feel more optimistic these days how the Canadian liberals and labour is doing well
Dear PollBludgers,
I finally completed v1 of my election forecasting model. I wrote quite a detailed article introducing it with an initial report. But I was reluctant to publish it here in the comments because of the length. So William suggested I publish it elsewhere and link to it in the comment.
So without further adieu, here it is: 2025 Federal Election Forecast Model.
Hope you find it of interest and criticisms or suggestions are welcome.
As the estimated 2PP values change over the remainder of the campaign, I’ll endeavour to update the forecasts.
@mj:
“And you’re a very whiny, Labor can do no wrong guy. No wonder you didn’t like it “
I am entirely up front with the parts of what Labor does I don’t like (such as the continuing surrender around gambling ads), and the parts of Labor campaigns I think are bad, we just happen to be having a very good one right now.
It’s interesting, today there were some very good posts where people explained why they think the way they do about Labor and the Greens in response to a genuine question. PB at its best. And then we have you with your lame personal attack which contributed zero to the thread. You could learn something from the Greens voters who replied today and had something to actually say.
@King OMalley
Excellent forecast model very much appreciated, you have done excellent work. The models demonstration of the current nonsensical choice by the LNP to chase the ideological path further right and how it effectively scuppers any chance they might have at forming government is particularly well shown.
I look forward to updates as the campaign continue!
It really does seem that the ALP are running Dutton’s election campaign because the shambolic nature of it is just so extraordinary.
Today we find out he has backflipped on EV tax breaks and then releases a Trump inspired, “3% of GDP defence spending” policy and says he will partly fund it by raising taxes – unbelievable! It is impossible to script this.
He said yesterday that we will have to wait until after the election so he can tell us what he’s going to cut.
I held my breath thinking that it’s not yet time to declare that Dutton cannot form Government but now, I’ve gone way past that and I would be very surprised if the ALP don’t get a workable majority on their own.
The cherry on top would be if the Greens are only left with one seat in the house of reps.
Playa Girón says Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 12:56 am
Well that’s one way to avoid Abbott’s “no cuts to ….” broken promise.
ArchaeWA
I look forward to an election night where, as in 2019 (and 2022 Victoria), the Sky After Dark crew are pleading with the Liberals to go further right in order to reach the promised land of victory, which apparently will forever be out of reach if they have any moderate policies whatsoever.
In 2004, the Liberal Party first preference vote was 40.47%. At the last election, this had dropped to 23.89%. If they drop below 20% ie. where less than 1 in 5 people vote for them, then, in my opinion, as a political party, they are finished.
They will have to rebrand themselves if they are to continue on with the way they are. Maybe call themselves the Conservatives and even then, they will be way overstating the description of themselves. In their current form, they are not conservative, they are far right. The South Australian Tom Playford was conservative, the current “Liberal” lot are way to the right of Tom Playford. They’d be far better off if they bought out Pauline Hanson’s rednecks and called themselves One Nation.
If what I have written seems a bit far fetched, then just take into consideration that at the last election, they lost 4.1% of their primary vote and in my estimation, that was because of the far-right, Christian psycho takeover of their party. If they lose 4% of their primary again, they will fall below 20% and the “Teals” will be the new moderates of that centre right cohort.
Playa Girón says Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 1:55 am
That’s a bit misleading as the 2004 result includes Liberal votes from Queensland, whereas the 2022 result does not. That said, even with the LNP Queensland vote, their first preference performance in 2022 was still less than 32%. We also shouldn’t forget that the ALP have been seeing a decline in their primary vote as well.
[‘Party leader dramatically surges ahead in Daily Mail Australia Ipsos poll – and why the wind has shifted as election 2025 enters its final sprint.
Anthony Albanese’s personal approval rating has surged just ten days out from federal election, according to the results of an exclusive Ipsos poll commissioned by Daily Mail Australia.
It comes as voters reveal they are concerned about the major parties cutting deals with the Greens on the left and One Nation on the right during the battle to form government.
The survey, of almost 2000 Australians, reveals that the Prime Minister has enjoyed a bump in approval of three percentage points over the past week with 38 per cent of Australians backing him.
This leaves him with a net approval rating of just minus one – the most positive result for preferred Prime Minister that Ipsos has observed since Malcolm Turnbull in 2016.
Meanwhile, things are seemingly going from bad to worse for Peter Dutton who continues to poll as the most unpopular Opposition Leader this century, with a dissatisfaction score of minus 20.
But Jessica Elgood, Ipsos public affairs director, said it was not a question of Mr Albanese being a standout candidate, but rather ‘a question of who’s losing it faster’.
‘This data does not tell us that the electorate think Albo is fantastic, that he’s inspirational, charismatic – it doesn’t,’ Ms Elgood said.
‘They think he’s okay – and they think he’s better than the other guy.’
Perhaps most intriguingly, Australians have expressed fears about the prospect of a minority government for whichever major party holds the balance of power.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14637789/australia-election-2025-ipsos-poll.html
Perhaps most intriguingly, Australians have expressed fears about the prospect of a minority government for whichever major party holds the balance of power.
Bearing this in mind, the Green tactic of promising to blackmail Labor if they can is in itself a pro-Reactionary gambit.
Labor needs to make it absolutely crystal clear – they will never parlay with the Greens. Never ever.
Mavis, HWP
Hopefully there is a small group of voters in tight Labor/Coalition seat contests who decide to go Labor in the hope of getting a Labor majority rather than Labor minority government.
Similarly I think in a lot of current and possible Teal and Independent seats there would be more than a few voters deciding that a vote for an opposition Coalition is a waste, whereas an Independent member may be able to achieve something for their electorate (or even for their country!)
Mavis
I just read that Daily Mail article – I think Murdoch Media have started Plan B. They have given up on Plan A which was trying to polish and promote Dutton and the Coalition, so are now trying to say ‘Labor heading for a landslide win’ in a last attempt to scare the horses and save at least some of the Coalition furniture.
Will it work? I don’t know – it probably just feeds into the ‘desperation’ mojo Dutton and co are currently displaying with all discipline gone out the window (along with policies that were backed mere days ago)
It all smells like the pathetic and desperate ‘Save Josh’ massive billboard at Kew Junction in Kooyong in 2022 (ironically I think placed on a hotel previously found to have been involved in sex trafficking!)
And that didn’t save ONE of our two Treasurers at the time!
Guardian Australia reports on “the National Climate Action Survey, conducted annually by researchers at Griffith University since 2021” (as conducted in December).
“98% of Greens voters believe the [climate] science, as do 92% of Labor voters, 80% of Nationals, 73% of Liberal party supporters and 52% of both One Nation and United Australia supporters.”
(Interestingly, stereotypically hayseed Nationals voters are reportedly more on board with the science than Liberal voters.)
“A majority of Australians do not view nuclear power favourably, and would be concerned if a plant was built near them …”
“By comparison, about 80% viewed wind and solar power favourably and the majority surveyed would not be concerned if solar or windfarms were built nearby.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/24/most-australians-would-be-concerned-about-nuclear-power-station-built-nearby-survey-shows
@Rocket Rocket
Haha same indeed, it was laughable watching the response of the Libs and conservatives in WA as well in the recent state election, reminded me of 2022 fed and a number of the prevous Vic elections (and Qld ones), particularly the liberal rep on the Abc coverage who said some rather unhinged things.
The lack of any grounding in the perspective of ordinary Aussies continues to astound me, as by all reasonable sense they should have access to the same statistics and opinion polling on issues we have which shows were the country stands on core principles. Yet despite this the Liberal philosophy of “We have to turn the electorate into one that agrees with our wants” as opposed to the proper method, of focusing on representing and enacting the wants of the people, (this not with standing the fact it is important and needed for government to take the lead on certain issues of substance and bring the people with them on that journey)
King OMalley @ #625 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 12:06 am
Bringing this back again fyi. 🙂
(Interestingly, stereotypically hayseed Nationals voters are reportedly more on board with the science than Liberal voters.)
A lot of Nationals voters are farmers who believe in Climate Change but who vote for the Nats for other reasons.
Increasingly, Liberal voters are tied to the Mining Industry and have accommodated themselves to the view that Climate Change isn’t real, or they just make a living out of the stuff that creates Climate Change and vote accordingly for their self-interest in keeping their job. Then there are the capitalists who will always vote Liberal because they know that the Liberals will always provide an environment that enables them to make more money.
What is concerning to me though is the 2% of Greens voters who DON’T believe in Climate Change! 😯
New thread.
Please note, one “accepts” climate change whereas one “believes” religion.
Further, please don’t use “psycho” as a perjorative, used like that it is a slur.
Have a great day! Accept the science.
BW,
Your constant misrepresentations and disingenuousness is very obvious to anyone who is calm and rational and unblinkered by your biases.