A major campaign milestone is reached today with the commencement of early voting. The third of the campaign’s leaders’ debates will be conducted from 7:30pm this evening by the Nine Network, to be moderated by A Current Affair host Ally Langdon with questions posed by Charles Croucher of Nine, Deb Knight of 2GB and Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review. The Roy Morgan poll that normally comes out on Monday will presumably be along later today. Note that there is a new post below this one on a state poll for New South Wales.
Other than that:
• The Courier-Mail reports a DemosAU poll collectively targeting the Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan has the Liberal National Party on 36% and the Greens and Labor on 29% each, compared with 35.7% for the LNP, 30.7% for the Greens and 26.2% for Labor at the 2022 election. Were the implied swings to occur uniformly across the three seats, the likely outcome would be Labor gaining Brisbane and the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith. The poll was conducted “mid-April” from a sample of 1087. UPDATE: The poll further includes a finding of 56-44 two-party preferred between Labor and the LNP and 55-45 between the Greens and the LNP.
• The Financial Review reports a Nationals source as being “pessimistic about Cowper”, where Pat Conaghan is under pressure from teal independent Caz Heise, but believing the party to be ahead in Calare, where former Nationals member Andrew Gee seeks re-election as an independent and teal independent Kate Hook is again in the field after performing strongly in 2022. In the latter case, the source says “if only one independent had run, that independent would have won”.
• The News Corp papers report that One Nation is changing its how-to-vote cards in Hunter and Paterson to elevate the Coalition, having initially favoured right-wing minor parties and independents, and is reviewing the situation elsewhere. Hanson’s chief-of-staff, James Ashby, is quoted saying the party was “was restructuring its preferences in seats where the Trumpet of Patriots has put the chance of a conservative candidate’s success ‘at risk’” – though this is not in fact the case in Hunter or Paterson, where Palmer’s party has Labor last in keeping with its approach of directing against sitting members (in a related development, its candidate for Flinders is telling voters to put him last out of displeasure at his how-to-vote card favouring teal independent Ben Smith). The only seats I can think of where One Nation does not already have the Coalition ahead of everyone it could conceivably lose to are Kennedy, where Bob Katter is presumably safe, and Monash, where a second preference is recommended for Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent, for whom Trumpet of Patriots has made an exception by placing him third behind another independent.
Been on preroll in Aston for the afternoon. Very busy with lib candidate present. All very polite and good natured. As to how it went I have been around too long to make assertions about where the votes were going .
What I can say is that the level of damage to Labor signage is the most severe I have ever seen . The libs deny it is them and that may be so, although it is the red corflutes which keep being disappeared and the libs left alone. Not pointing a finger……..
My punt is that Labor will form government, the LNP have made too many unforced errors and Trump
The one thing the panel got right is that it was Dutton’s best performance “and he probably needed it”.
Nine needed the big ad breaks to give the panel time to concoct justifications. The wins by 1/2% and 1/4% show that their hearts weren’t in it.
I deserve a medal for watching through to the bitter end.
The Albonatorsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:03 pm
Was there a knockout blow either way?…..Did one of them make a an embarrassing gaffe?….No?….then it was a largely pointless exercise.
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It doesn’t have to change minds to be meaningful or useful. It’s enough that it gives people a chance to firm up in their existing view, if that’s how it plays out.
I don’t think anybody would say Albanese has landed any knockout punches in this campaign. But cumulative experience is clearly swaying people, on average, towards Labor.
Why Labor bothers with the commercial stations debates when the commericals have wealthy advertisers, do u think they will support the workers party? How stupid are the Labor team.
The people who work for them vote for Albanese will not have a job tomorrow if they do otherwise.
And 7 next week whom two weeks ago had a phoney show on how bad batteries are, the team Labor really have rocks in their head.
Quentin Rountreesays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:13 pm
So um what do you think’s gonna be the rest of the election because I don’t see a way for Peter
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I don’t see a way back for Dutton either. He’ll probably keep most voters in safe rural areas where he doesn’t need them but is going quickly backwards in the outer burbs he hoped would be his path to victory. He is too hard and cold for the average voter which has always been suspected but is now being confirmed. Even without Trump shenanigans he probably would have struggled.
And I’m warming to the Crumpet of Patriots. She’s a bit of all right. Sexist emoji.
Lol who is @crispy?
Labor voters and potential voters watch commercial TV, ffs. They’ll take the votes and the networks will take the money.
lol … goodness.
@mj – yeah, Dutton is such a deeply unlikeable and negative character.
The commercial channels demand the debates because they make a lot of money out of the political ads. How much did Clive throw at this one?
Luigi whoever
I guess crumpet is slightly less offensive than strumpet.
Pre-poll for Chisholm/Deakin/Kooyong/Menzies looked like a full on PJ Masks convention for adults this afternoon…
Albo was asked 2 questions which deserved answers, one on increased insurance premiums the other on Airbnb. He dodged both
Aly trying to get Dutton to do an Abbott and throw out a 3 word slogan, he couldn’t do it
Albo comes back with “no one left behind”, I wonder how many others hate hearing him stay that as much as I do? It’s so blatantly untrue
They do not make much money from me because i do not watch them hardly anymore, other than sport which i mute.
I (unlike many here) am going to call tonight’s channel 9 debate without bias.
Albo won the debate. Why?
Because he had the last say on nearly every question, and Dutton failed to rebut his spin.
Admittedly, Dutton wasn’t given a chance to have the last say (Albo’s dividend for no action on gambling advertising I would say) but Dutton should have insisted to set the record straight.
Watched the debate on ch 9 impara. The lnp ad was hilarious- 2 blokes in a pub drinking beer complaining about the cost of living increases under Albo and one of them receiving his next pot of beer for $14!
Last time I bought a pot in a country pub (Saturday) it cost me $6!
As alp have cut the excise on beer, not sure the ad is going to hit many home runs. Not with beer drinkers, and not with stay-at-home mums waiting for the blokes to come home for their dinner.
Centre, a very mellow and magnanimous award from you.
Albo made one great big mistake in the debate:
The little Red Socialist “declared” that he will not be making a deal with the Greens.
Big mistake, he’s gonna regret that one, big time!
Centresays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:32 pm
I (unlike many here) am going to call tonight’s channel 9 debate without bias. Dutton is not relatable or likeable to the majority, he looks and acts like a prick tbh.
Albo won the debate. Why?
Because he had the last say on nearly every question, and Dutton failed to rebut his spin.
Admittedly, Dutton wasn’t given a chance to have the last say (Albo’s dividend for no action on gambling advertising I would say) but Dutton should have insisted to set the record straight.
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Not sure there was a clear winner other than on vibe, Albo is clearly more relatable to the average person, which is important when there is nothing that is contentious policy wise. Dutton looks and acts like a prick and it’s palpable.
Crispy wedges
The fact that Dutton has been too chicken to appear on anything but the friendliest media has doomed his campaign. He can only convince his rusted-ons. Albanese’s willingness to contest on Sky et al has honed his ability to communicate. You’ve got to be willing and able to attract voters who might choose the opposition to win
At least nuclear is improving. It’s gone from $600 billion to just hundreds of billion after that Smart Energy Whatever they call themselves was exposed.
I’d like to know the true cost of Albo and Bowens renewable contraptions failure.
Well our monthly electricity bill arrived today
$36-
Thank you pm
So why is Albo doing all these debates?
The ALP have taken the punt that the more the public see of Dutton the less they will like him. It’s risky, but if the polls are anything to go by, it is paying off.
mj above says “Albo is clearly more relatable to the average person, which is important when there is nothing that is contentious policy wise. Dutton looks and acts like a prick and it’s palpable.”
That’s what the ALP are banking on.
Centresays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:43 pm
At least nuclear is improving
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Even if you agree with nuclear it’s a total scam that will never happen.
Morgan just up..
ALP increases election-winning two-party preferred lead to 55.5% cf. 44.5% L-NP as early voting has now started
subgeometer you actually made a great Point someone on Reddit actually said that like they was so in in the Echo chamber that they for Trump was popular in Australia that doge would be popular in Australia not knowing 68% of them hate Trump
Centre says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:37 pm
Albo made one great big mistake in the debate:
The little Red Socialist “declared” that he will not be making a deal with the Greens.
Big mistake, he’s gonna regret that one, big time!
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No he won’t, even if he goes into minority government. For starters the question itself was quite ambiguous. It seemed to ask – and Dutton alleged – that Labor would do a deal with the Greens for supply, like in 2010. The memory of 2010 is branded into the political brain of every Labor MP who was there, Albo in particular.
That Labor would negotiate with the Greens on specific legislation would be no different from now in the Senate. But in the Reps, Labor would be far happier working with the non-Greens and doing no deals for support. They, in turn, will remember Wilkie’s experience and will also make no deals. If the vote is so close (i.e., the Coalition gain a LOT of seats) that Labor would have to do a deal with the Greens to stay in power, I expect they would rather go back to another election.
Anyway, it is far more likely now that Labor will be in a majority.
Jt1983 you know what I think doomed Peter’s campaign being in an echo chamber like he went on Sky News and all that and no one holding accountable the thing someone said on Reddit basically he when do people who would suck him off metaphorically and when he got the hard questions he got none at the answers
Windhover
I haven’t seen the LNP cost of living ad (oh joy) but when I heard it described I assumed it was a $14 schooner, which would be steep for a craft beer at a late night venue. Now I hear its a pot(ahem middy), ROFL
ALP increases election-winning two-party preferred lead to 55.5% cf. 44.5% L-NP as early voting has now started
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It sounds a bit too good to be true but at the same time wouldn’t shock me that much if this was the final result given how evidently shit Dutton is.
Center;
Albo said he wouldnt do deals with the Greens to form government (to my memory), which he has always said.
The point is if Labor only have a minority, the Greens can choose to not support Labor on their own, without deals, the only alternative is a Liberal Government, and they arent going to do deals either.
Not sure why so many Greens have trouble understanding it.
sprocket at 9.07 pm
Coorey was the only one with some experience and erstwhile credibility (he used to get Cabinet discussion details out, e.g. re ME, under Gillard).
His verdict, given his obvious bend to the Libs, means Dutton failed to get the boost that he’s missed for months.
Clare Armstrong said on Sunday that Dutton can’t afford any more drawn days. So far he has had two more.
What brought my attention to their heights was memories of this sketch from Not the Nine O’Clock News where they made Griff Rhys-Jones stand a few paces back from Mel Smith to make him look like the smaller of the two Ronnies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbC3Fdv5wKU
I think many here would be rooting for a minority with the Greens.
How many are going to be happy with just a cup of coffee tax cut in 15 months time lol
The real winner tonight was the Trumpet Of Patriots. Those ads were a humdinger. Hell, I might even put Clive first??
Channel 9 got the message after Sky couldn’t even fix their panel for Dutton and went “we know how to fix ours”.
It’s funny that The Age seems to be trying to spruik this as the most fiery debate yet, to me it was the one with the absolute least new things said.
Quentin Rountree at 9.54 pm
That point about Dutton accustomed to avoiding accountability was made by Clare Armstrong on Insiders. It is the obvious explanation for his poor performances. Totally lacks agility.
He has not been able to adapt to the new political circumstances since late February. Classic fair-weather pollie.
Coorey just voted Albo to give the illusion of fairness and leave it a cliffhanger final vote Most of what he said before his assessment suggested he preferred Dutton. The final commentator did the opposite.
“If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 55.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.”
I don’t believe it either! Who are these 44% of the population who would vote for Dutton?
All jokes aside, I like the trend but I do think that may be a little too generous.
If it is true, or anything like it, the ALP won’t need to do deals with anyone, unlike the LNP – who are a dodgy coalition at the best of times. My fellow Greens will be on their own, this time.
Temu Trump is cooked. Our debate moderator sycophanting that was the ALP’s doing! Leave it out! Michaelia “Dutton will govern like Drumpf” Cash, Jacinta “Make Australia Great Again and ignore my MAGA cap Price” and Peter “Trump is deep thinker” did that all by themselves.
Albo tonight clearly “declared” that Labor will not be doing any deals with the Greens.
Oh, yes he will, he’ll be doing a deal. It’s the Greens, they’re fair dinkum lunatics, they’ll be sending us to another election for sure if he doesn’t – hilarious 😀
@Quentin – the LNP had a deeply lazy strategy, doing the bare minimum and assuming dissatisfaction would push the middle into their arms.
When the time came for the campaign- they’ve somehow ended up wrong footed.
lol – well @Centre – I celebrate you finding your bliss.
Does anyone but boomers watch these debates? with 33% of electors about to vote for a non major party, and the boomer genberation finally being surpassed by GenZ, how ridiculous of Commercial stations, ABC SKYNews etc to think that we’re watching their rubbish anymore.
mj says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:55 pm
ALP increases election-winning two-party preferred lead to 55.5% cf. 44.5% L-NP as early voting has now started
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It sounds a bit too good to be true but at the same time wouldn’t shock me that much if this was the final result given how evidently shit Dutton is.
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It would shock me.
It’s never happened before for a Labor government and I can’t see it happening now – particularly as the reliability of the TPP figure is undermined by the rise of viable third parties like the Teals, Voices and Greens in the Reps.
What I can see is that the Coalition will find it increasingly difficult to get above 65 seats (and that’s being generous) and nowhere near enough to offer a minority government option when almost all cross benchers would never compromise on climate to the extent that the Coalition would require.
Dutton says he has had successful relations with the US in the past, but apart from humping Ivanka’s leg and bringing back COVID, what has he achieved?
Albanese’s response re not doing any deals with the Greens – this suggests to me that his internals must be indicative of comfortable majority gov’t.
Mr Mysterious says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 10:12 pm
Albanese’s response re not doing any deals with the Greens – this suggests to me that his internals must be indicative of comfortable majority gov’t.
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No. They just won’t. It’s not that hard to understand. It would be political suicide. Going into Opposition would be better.
Yep, I’ve made a decision:
Trumpet Of Patriots 1
One Nation 2
Liberal 3
Greens 2nd last
Labor last
Dr Doolittle says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 6:38 pm
Kirsdarke at 4.03 pm
Fusion is a techno-vibe fizzer mini group (not really a party) that got 2.9% in the autumn 2023 Aston by-election. They are habitual blow-ins.
Perhaps they stood in that by-election as a way of making a joke about Roshena Campbell, the Lib barrister with gish-gallop delivery.
Neither Roshena nor Fusion are back on track in Aston. The Lib candidate is a mayor of Knox 20 years ago. There is a full knot of RW nutter candidates, which makes Aston a challenge for Labor’s Mary Doyle, who is behind the Liberal candidate in second spot.
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The latest iteration of what was formerly known as The Australian Sex Party and the Reason Party, combined with the Pirate Party. At least they are posting on their blog again. They have a wider policy platform to be called a single issue party.
Disclaimer:- I once was a voter for the Reason party. No candidate in my electorate this spin of the wheel. Perhaps in the Senate again.
It would shock me.
It’s never happened before for a Labor government and I can’t see it happening now – particularly as the reliability of the TPP figure is undermined by the rise of viable third parties like the Teals, Voices and Greens in the Reps.
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Maybe I’m too used to WA Labor results. But yeah it seems unrealistic nationally. If they can get 52-48 and a bare majority they’ll be happy but Dutton is such a weak PM candidate that Labor could do surprisingly well.
@Griff
I’m sure you already know this, but Reason ultimately was a vehicle for Fiona Patten.
Fiona is now the lead Victorian senate candidate for Legalise Cannabis, so while there’s no Reason candidate in your electorate, you can obviously still vote Fiona for the senate!
MABWM at 4.04 and 9.47 pm
Thanks for your insight on McEwen. The Lib candidate, Jason McLintock, is a former Telstra executive who failed to complete a physics degree 35 years ago.
Classic case of why the American website LinkedIn is dubious. “Self-praise is no recommendation”, as my paternal grandmother, Emily White, from Violet Town, regularly said.
You are correct re Albo’s reason for doing more debates. Dutton is much worse at selling Lib policy than Turnbull, whom he brought down.
That view fits with Resolve poll reasons for alienating voters from either side – Dutton’s personality was a big turnoff, for 45%. It’s backed in.
Michelle Grattan’s view on the third debate: Dutton has made a strategic mistake.
“Election Diary: Dutton in third debate gives Labor ammunition for its scare about cuts
In the leaders’ third head-to-head encounter, on Nine on Tuesday, Peter Dutton’s bluntness when pressed on cuts has given more ammunition to Labor’s scare campaign about what a Coalition government might do.
“When John Howard came into power, there was $96 billion of debt from Labor at that point. John Howard didn’t outline the budget from opposition and it is not something you can do from opposition,” Dutton said.”
https://theconversation.com/election-diary-dutton-in-third-debate-gives-labor-ammunition-for-its-scare-about-cuts-254990?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton
I am watching Swingers on the ABC, hosted by the excellent Casey Briggs – well worth a look if you haven’t yet seen it.
And please ignore Centre, he is nothing more than a troll.