YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor’s nose back in front in the latest YouGov poll as Peter Dutton’s personal ratings maintain a downward trajectory.

A garden variety federal poll from YouGov, as distinct from its massive MRP endeavour last week, finds both major parties down on the primary vote since the last such poll a fortnight ago: Labor by one to 30% and the Coalition by two to 35%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 13% and 7% respectively, Trumpet of Patriots up from 1% to 2%, and independents up two to 10%. Labor has recovered a 51-49 lead it lost with a return to 50-50 at the last poll, based on a respondent-allocated preferences split that makes use of the voluminous data from the MRP polling.

The poll adds to the marked downward trajectory of Peter Dutton’s recent personal ratings, his approval down four to 38% and disapproval up six to 53%. Anthony Albanese is up three to 44% and steady on 50%. There is nonetheless only a modest change on preferred prime minister, with Albanese’s lead out from 45-40 to 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1622.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. William I want to thank you for not doxing me but beyond my silly personal PB rubbish I have the goods!.

    Also I’d ask you don’t dob me to uncle M. He knows nothing of my dirty little PB posts. Can’t have big ‘M’ suspicious . Besides surely he is a Bonafide WA Labor legend now after his record breaking seat swings over a few elections ?

  2. Further, when I stated there was a broad and consistent 2pp movement to Albo that would make Keating 93 wince you dismissed me.

    Please just allocate me the same respect given to cat, Lars, Andy, mavis , bush fire bill etc.

    I enjoy risking my job et al by providing these updates however if you think of me as a piece of shit I won’t contribute any more. I’m just asking for a hug. Just a virtual hug William

  3. William I just ask for a special status- a coloured name tag and nothing more. Fuck mate. I’ve provided quality content here

  4. 2PP 51/49…translates to around 77/55 Labor/Reactionary split, and the balance members composed mostly of counter-reactionary 3rd voices.

    The result will be better than 51/49, a reflection of the failure of Duttonism, notwithstanding the spoiling role undertaken by the trainee reactionaries.

    So we should expect a Parliament with fewer than 50 Reactionaries.

  5. I’m emboldened by William’s frigid enforcement of me.

    But it’s better than him still thinking
    I’m a piece of shit nothing burger.

    I have the NSW analytic pulse of the centre left at my disposal.
    I forgive or misunderstandings William

  6. William does this Redbridge at a roughly correlate to the 80-83 Labor house of reps number I discussed last night ??

  7. So William, can I ask how you are feeling in the likes of Gilmore, forde, bonnet, Dickson, and the pastoral seats of QLD north or there about as of Capricornia?

  8. The TPP is lower than what won them 76 seats last time, so no, I don’t see it as correlating with 80 to 83 seats. I don’t think Labor will ever win Capricornia again, except maybe on very special occasions. Forde, Bonner, Dickson don’t seem likely, but who knows. They could certainly hold Gilmore if recent form continues.

  9. William what if I told you we have data suggesting 80 seats including the holding of Gilmore, bennelong and Patterson ?

  10. William I’d if I resisted the temptation several years ago on PB to get trapped in the garbage posts of the likes of Lars, cat, Rex, Boer, nath, etc etc would you have thought more of me if
    It was just my insider info that I brought to PB?

  11. Goll: the likes of Peter C et al who advocated for that have been caught up in an incest scandal with their own mothers

  12. sustainable snail says Friday, April 4, 2025 at 11:32 pm

    what is it called when government agents take someone off the street and imprison them for expressing an opinion?

    Totalitarianism

  13. William Bowesays:
    Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 3:06 am
    The Daily Telegraph has a RedBridge poll that has Labor leading 52-48 and primary votes of Labor 33% and Coalition 36%. This seems to be a national poll and not the marginal seat tracking poll I was expecting from the News Corp papers, which will perhaps be along tomorrow.

    **********************

    Evidence is definitely building for a large change of momentum over the last couple of months. Mrs Wombat makes the point that Peter Dutton has had a lot more air time over the last few months, and the more people see of him, the less they like him. I think it’s probably fairly true, and his personal polling numbers seem to support the argument. Looking at him on TV, he just hasn’t looked prime ministerial. I can’t see him winning an election. I think his trumpiness over the last few months may have burnt quite a few new Australians’ impressions of him in the outer ‘burbs he has built his strategy around.

  14. The Wombat says:
    Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 5:21 am
    William Bowesays:
    Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 3:06 am
    The Daily Telegraph has a RedBridge poll that has Labor leading 52-48 and primary votes of Labor 33% and Coalition 36%. This seems to be a national poll and not the marginal seat tracking poll I was expecting from the News Corp papers, which will perhaps be along tomorrow.

    52/48 ..improving. Duttonism comprises:

    Sacking workers by the tens of thousands
    Opposing and/or repealing tax cuts
    Abolishing WFH
    Promising imaginary electricity
    Promising imaginary gas
    Conceding defeat
    Accepting voters will choose non-Reactionary 3rd voices
    Imitating Trump

    By campaigning against themselves the Reactionaries will endure Labor is returned with an increased majority. Excellent.

    If things go especially well for Labor over the next 4 weeks they could achieve a very marked swing their way. I think we’re seeing the start of that motion.

  15. bobsays:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 11:59 pm
    “Ambition disappears in a cost-of-living election. There are no big ideas. There are no grand appeals to the future.”
    Last time Labor did that they lost to Scott Morrison who gave us 3 years of robodebt suicides.

    Exackerly.

  16. Ante Meridien: men without hats safety dance was one of the weirdest things to ever appear on countdown, everyone in the film clip, especially the blond lass with the Cheshire cat grin, seemed off their faces and stark raving mad. This song is still a topic of conversation right across the internet. I can’t say mollies countdown selections corresponded with my record collection at the time but it was always fairly entertaining.

  17. While trying not to offend Integrity, I notice that an LNP minority is now @ 7:2, same as for an ALP majority.
    Oh dear!

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