A garden variety federal poll from YouGov, as distinct from its massive MRP endeavour last week, finds both major parties down on the primary vote since the last such poll a fortnight ago: Labor by one to 30% and the Coalition by two to 35%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 13% and 7% respectively, Trumpet of Patriots up from 1% to 2%, and independents up two to 10%. Labor has recovered a 51-49 lead it lost with a return to 50-50 at the last poll, based on a respondent-allocated preferences split that makes use of the voluminous data from the MRP polling.
The poll adds to the marked downward trajectory of Peter Dutton’s recent personal ratings, his approval down four to 38% and disapproval up six to 53%. Anthony Albanese is up three to 44% and steady on 50%. There is nonetheless only a modest change on preferred prime minister, with Albanese’s lead out from 45-40 to 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1622.
Sportsbet Labor $1.53 Coalition $2.50
Dutton has just made sure that the seats the Liberal Party lost to the Teals will not be coming back into the fold.
His Trump like, “Australia will not host COP” has destroyed any hope of reclaiming those seats and what’s worse for him and the Libs, other Liberal seats may well fall to the Teals.
It seams that as everyday passes, Dutton is showing himself up as being completely unprepared and incompetent.
”
citizensays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 7:58 pm
Think I heard on The Project that Trump’s 29% tariff on Norfolk Island has been quietly changed to 10%. No mention yet of giving the penguins and seals down south any tariff relief.
”
Probably when Trump initially heard the ‘penguins and seals’, he/ his imbeciles (cabinet members) could have thought they were some other country’s Navy seals. Hence, the initial tariff of 29%.
Once they knew they were just seals, they dropped quickly to 20%
Diogenes. Flint was so pleased on ABC to say that Dutton had dropped in 4 times to support her in last year or so. Probably that’s enough to know.
Spence says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 10:43 pm
Nadia, Labor is up in Qld cf last election on PB track. Best performing state relative to last election on PB tracker?
==============
They’re up by 1% in QLD.
The PB aggregate says they are sitting at 28.4%
In comparison..
* VIC 29.5%
* NSW 30.2%
* SA 32.8%
* WA 37.3%
QLD is not the best performing state at all on overall aggregation. It’s the worst for the ALP.
290 billion yearly surplus that’s the Chinese slaughter of USA in trade .
Muslim voice is running candidates against Tony Burko and Jason eclair.AFR now.
More candidates to come from the zealots goes to show labor selling out Israel for south west Sydney votes is a disaster.
Very very interesting if polls are done to see the Muslim voice vote.
paul A – I saw your post earlier this evening regarding another poster.
Good pick up.
I owe you nothing though!
Labor up in Qld cf to 2022 means they are a chance to pick up seats, particularly if trend continues. Plus helps second Senate seat.
Nadia,
If you are going to change your nom de PB, could you please use a capital first letter as per the standard for proper nouns?
Thanks in advance from pedants everywhere.
Spence says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 10:53 pm
Labor up in Qld cf to 2022 means they are a chance to pick up seats, particularly if trend continues. Plus helps second Senate seat.
===========
No worries Spence.
I reckon Labor will pick up Brisbane, but may lose Blair.
Name the seats please you think Labor will pick up with a 1% primary swing.
Don’t import US beef! It creates mad dow disease.
Ante Meridian says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 10:55 pm
Nadia,
If you are going to change your nom de PB, could you please use a capital first letter as per the standard for proper nouns?
Thanks in advance from pedants everywhere.
====================
Ante – you can take pedant business to some other poster pls.
I’ve had enough thrown at me on this site this past few months.
I’ll have a think about it. Night!
”
Griffsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:41 pm
davidwh says:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:37 pm
Meher baba agree however invoking the Insurrection Act is close to declaring martial law. Trump didn’t ask for the review unless he wanted to use it at some point.
I was a dictatorship sceptic but I am being worn down by Trump’s actions.
_________
Meher baba has already admitted surprise at recent events a la Trump. I am not sure whether meher baba has adequately adjusted expectations for future events.
”
meherbaba is such a nice man that he thinks good Republicans exist in America.
I tried to convince that currently only bad, ugly and evil Republicans exist. He won’t buy it.
Now he has proof that good Republicans still exist because in this week’s Florida special election, the margin of victory for Republicans is reduced from 32-33 to about 14%.
Don’t do it, nadia.
One name change a day is plenty.
dutton could host the climate summit and start with a joke about the ocean lapping at islander’s feet. We could vote on how unwoke it is from our cities as our own beaches start to erode.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:49 pm
Ante Meridian @ #481 Friday, April 4th, 2025 – 8:41 pm
I’ve seen Der Untergang. Great movie.
It was criticised for humanising the Nazis, especially Hitler, but that was what I liked about it. Unlike Disney productions where evil is always ugly and slimy and bleeding obvious, this movie showed how we have to be constantly on guard because the face of evil is not obvious, it looks just like normal people.
Yeah, honestly the thing that disturbed me the most about it was the character of Eva Braun. She simultaneously knew they were doomed and yet she insisted on acting as though nothing wrong was happening until the very end. She was like a child, enchanted by the allure of the Fuehrer.
And also the Goebbels. Joseph was flip-flopping between lies and truth and then he just let his wife Magda murder all of their children, and then each other.
”
Waco, Texas cult story is happening on much bigger scale in USA. It is countrywide now.
I’m just seeing a negative for Dutton and Littleproud. Despite having them as leaders, their 2PP position going backwards. Contrary to most people’s perception and media.
NOTE: I initially typed up this comment but I accidentally refreshed the page and I lost the text so here’s a crude reconstruction of it from memory.
Recently I’ve been evaluating how each Teal might fare in their face and I became interested in how many seats have their own non-Teal independents; of these seats, how many of these seats will actually be competitive?
Rn my current list of Non-Teal Independents include:
Incumbents-
Andrew Wilkie (Clark)
Dai Le (Fowler)
Andrew Gee (Calare)
Russel Broadbent (Monash); He’s surprisingly been competitive in Monash according to internal polling
Ian Goodenough (Moore)
I expect Wilkie and Le to retain their seats. Gee and Broadbent might have an outside chance at retaining their seats assuming there is tactical voting and preferences from Labor, Greens and One Nation voters (Leonard could have a chance in Monash since a huge chunk of PHON preferences still go to left leaning INDs); however, I’m keeping these two as LNP gains. I think Goodenough will lose in Moore, but assuming that he takes off enough votes from Liberals (which I doubt), his preferences might be crucial in deciding who wins Moore.
Muslim Votes-
Ahmed Ouf (Blaxland)
Ziad Basyouny (Watson)
Samim Moslih (Calwell)
Iirc, the Liberals will be preferencing Labor above these three (I lost the link to the article so if anyone will post it here I’ll appreciate it), which significantly decreases the chances of any of them winning. Rn I’d say that only Ouf and Moslih has an outside chance of winning; Ouf is a local councilor whilst Moslih is running in a seat with a retiring incumbent in a state which has a 4% swing against Labor. Ziad sharing posts celebrating Oct 7 might work against him. At the very least Labor will suffer swings in all three seats.
Others-
Steven Commerford (Reid); According to a poster on The Tally Room he seems to be a candidate arising from Liberal in-fighting who failed to get Climate 200 funding, otherwise he seems to be obscure
Matthew Camenzuli (McMahon); Don’t know much about him except that he seems to be very right wing
Paddy Moylan (Whitlam)
This last section’s for Paddy, especially since the Liberal candidate here decided to torpedo his campaign, so he’s a dud (or as nadia says it, a lemon)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/04/liberal-candidate-says-women-should-not-serve-in-adf-combat-roles-amid-range-of-controversial-views
I think Paddy might have a chance at winning Whitlam because of a lack of incumbent, anger directed at Labor over cost of living and offshore wind farms, the Liberal candidate being a lemon, and an increasing national appetite for third parties and independents. Labor could lose enough votes to both Britton and Paddy whilst Paddy overtakes the Liberals in 2pp and win off Liberal preferences.
Also on an off note Rob Priestly will definitely be competitive in Nicholls if he ran again but so far there hasn’t been any announcement from him so I doubt he will re-run.
Btw are there any more non-Teal IND that I missed? I’d happily add them onto the list.
G’night Nadia.
And just for the record, you can split all the infinitives you like, use ‘less’ for count nouns, and even end sentences with prepositions, but starting proper nouns with lower-case letters is a firing squad offence.
Socratessays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 4:35 pm
beguiledagain
“Is there anyone out there who still supports Israel’s genocide in Gaza? Speak up now.”
——————————————
I presume piedpiper and FUBAR must be back at Menzies House getting fresh talking points issued.
_______________________________________________________
“Is there anyone out there who still supports Israel’s genocide in Gaza? Speak up now.”
This is the statement I was talking about being complete rubbish. I found at least 10 including Pew research but I don’t think it was allowed to go not sure why, probably just two many.
There is no Genocide and as for support for Israel lets start with Australia https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/israel/israel-country-brief
This is our official line from the Australian Government. Couple of comments to negate the loons on supporting Israel.
“Australia and Israel share a close relationship with significant people-to-people links and broad commercial engagement.”
” Australia has a warm and close relationship with Israel, which is supported strongly by Australia’s active Jewish community. ”
and finally this “Australia is strongly opposed to unfair targeting of Israel in the United Nations and other multilateral institutions. However, we make clear our concerns about Israeli actions that undermine the prospects of a two-state solution and continue to urge Israel and other actors to respect international law.”
So you guys are part of the unfair targeting. This is our current brief on Israel. Absolutely nothing about genocide just all about support and the wish for peace.
If you take out the genocide lie, nearly all Western democracies support Israel and believe the Government of Gaza Hamas are the bad guys.
”
Donald Gravitas Big Thinker Duttonsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 10:11 pm
Kidnapping people off the street is my favourite part of democracy.
”
Kidnapping is done by criminals and not by Governments.
That is the reason kidnapping is a crime.
Dutton is an off-putting person in multiple ways and people increasingly dislike him the more they see and hear from him. Albo isn’t regarded as particularly effective by a large part of the electorate but has the advantage of coming across as a somewhat relatable human being.
The campaign has been pretty dull so far, it is devoid of big ideas and respected leaders. If the campaign continues as it has been I think it’ll just convince more people to vote third party or independent though fairly confident that Labor will be returned in minority with the only clear pathway to govt such is the density of Dutton’s charisma black hole. Perhaps with the chaotic world events going on Labor could obtain a majority but I’m not sure Albo is respected enough for people to line up behind him in sufficient numbers.
The same way it’s not terrorism if it’s a government doing it.
what is it called when government agents take someone off the street and imprison them for expressing an opinion?
Too bad that the Yanks are unhappy that we won’t buy their beef. We don’t need it and have a surplus produced here.
Doubts as to their hygiene and disease control standards is another good reason.
Note that after brexit the Poms retained the European refusal to buy their chook meat. Their slaughter standards are lax and the contents of the chooks’ intestines contaminate the meat. To fix it they wash the meat with chlorine to kill the e. coli.
Their standards won’t improve while Musk is sacking health professionals and Kennedy is implementing junk science.
Sustainable Snail,
If is it’s us or our allies doing it, it’s ‘preventative detention on suspicion of …’.
If it’s our enemies, it’s ‘a gross violation of human rights’.
Got any more dumb questions?
”
sustainable snailsays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 11:32 pm
what is it called when government agents take someone off the street and imprison them for expressing an opinion?
”
Interrogation.
good to make more people than just yourself consider a question
Source: Daily Kos:
“On Thursday, the major stock indices sank in a sea of red ink. The investor class digested Trump’s tariff policies and threw up in the financial toilet.”
That sentence would be funny if if it was not serious issue.
Oh dear the Dow is down 1200 pts in futures again.
SS,
The last sentence of my previous post might have come across as a bit … abrasive? Something like that. Anyway, sorry if it was a bit something-or-other. It wasn’t meant to be.
“Ambition disappears in a cost-of-living election. There are no big ideas. There are no grand appeals to the future.”
Last time Labor did that they lost to Scott Morrison who gave us 3 years of robodebt suicides.
Stephen Colbert on Trump tariffs
https://youtu.be/aVCs7bDSQKA?si=9o-P4KGOPVwJWk89
What he said would have very funny if it hadn’t been true.
Truly satire is finding difficult to perform in USA
Just got home from a wedding, and not only did I injure my knee getting out one of those new-fangled big utes, but more to the point, I was pissed off that the disk jokey refused to play any of Jolson’s greatest hits – eg,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBWTgxYx6mg
I’m alleging ageism.
The Economist weighs in on Trump’s economic insanity
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/3/2314250/-The-Economist-weighs-in-on-Trump-s-economic-insanity?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
It is a profound article. It is upto you to believe it or not after reading because it is written by economists.
My take: I really want to see how it turns out. There is lots of outrage from lots of people comparing it to previous US tariff regime 100 years and it’s “consequences”
Some compared COVID to’Spanish flu’ pandemic 100 years ago, which some said originated from USA (I honestly don’t what is the truth), which killed millions of people.
Now they are comparig current tariffs to 100 years ago tariffs.
Mavis,
I bet they played doof-doof at eardrum-splitting level instead, so if you wanted to talk to someone on the other side of your table you had to shout with your hands cupped around your mouth.
But anyway, as long as the bride and groom enjoyed the celebrations, that’s what counts.
So, my choice for music.
I’ve had this one as an ear-worm for freakin’ weeks and can’t get rid of it. So I’m going to inflict it on the rest of youse because misery loves company.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1p_BvaHsgGg
Spence
I can’t recall Dutton being in Boothby. It didn’t get much publicity. Which was wise.
Ven says:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 12:12 am
The Economist weighs in on Trump’s economic insanity
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/3/2314250/-The-Economist-weighs-in-on-Trump-s-economic-insanity?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
———
The insane creep is manufacturing a recession without realising it, or really caring, and has already done irrepairable damage to America’s reputation. He will be remembered as the President that turbocharged American decline, and will probably be removed from office for gross incompetence once the severe economic impact of his ramblings becomes apparent.
Pegasussays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 10:16 pm
Ambition disappears in a cost-of-living election. There are no big ideas. There are no grand appeals to the future.
______________________
Barely worth responding to, because there is literally nothing anyone could post that would change your mind.
https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-work/future-made-in-australia
Because i would respond with equal conviction that the Greens, Teals and similar offer nothing but a redistributive sugar hit that does nothing to drive growth and productivity over the long term, leaving our rapidly growing population squabbling over a shrinking pie – policies that signal that new ideas, investments and innovations will be viciously punished for daring to be the tall poppy.
Where people can’t afford to house themselves it’s irrelevant who is best at driving so called economic growth if it’s not serving the needs of people. You cannot have a healthy economy without a healthy society.
Looks like the Chinese have retaliated vs Trump with a 34% tariff on US exports. The US stock market is going to see another day of falls. Down 2.5% at the start of trading.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/apr/04/us-business-stock-markets-nyse-blog-trump-tariffs-asian-markets
Its going to be very hard for these two leaders (Xi or Trump) to back down without losing face.
Peter C where are thee?
Disappeared like a rambling drunkard the morning after making several promises of matrimony to the girl with a face like a dropped pie.
Entropy- our love hate dalliance continues young man. Despite my at times frustrating footing you continue to improve your prose and arguments. Don’t let the bastards keep you down.
Larsie, dear Larsie. Did Gordon Wood ever return Renee Rivkin’s worry beads he bequeathed to you on that steamy Paddington night?.
C@t, keep up the good fight- we’ve had our moments but one can’t deny the truest of true believers such as yourself !
Rex and Boer- love both thee- despite suspected mental casees
But on a serious note to bilbo aka William. Could you please email my personal account- I need a hired gun to do some fairly basic quantitative breakdowns of some 10ish small sample surveys. Good money.
Oh and hello piped piper. Don’t let the bastards get you down. To me you are still young and tall and thin and lovely!
Trump’s Tariffs Send Markets Plunging and Penguins Waddling to a Trade War | The Daily Show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjVlsMGQTb0
”
Socratessays:
Saturday, April 5, 2025 at 1:06 am
Looks like the Chinese have retaliated vs Trump with a 34% tariff on US exports. The US stock market is going to see another day of falls. Down 2.5% at the start of trading.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/apr/04/us-business-stock-markets-nyse-blog-trump-tariffs-asian-markets
Its going to be very hard for these two leaders (Xi or Trump) to back down without losing face.
”
The Dow Jones industrial is down 3.57% or about 1460 points
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-american-age-is-over
The Daily Telegraph has a RedBridge poll that has Labor leading 52-48 and primary votes of Labor 33% and Coalition 36%. This seems to be a national poll and not the marginal seat tracking poll I was expecting from the News Corp papers, which will perhaps be along tomorrow.
Hi kriksdake.
I’m sad.
Times like these I start to think bilbo hates me. I thought I provided unique insider movement with griping analysis and commentary.
Thank you William for that update.
Do you now begin to give credibility to the shit we are seeing with the small sample internals ???
I don’t ask that you like me- heaven for bid I’m am immature idiot. I just ask that you respect my contributions.
I’ve watched you since I was 18 circa 2004 when you were doing interviews on foxtel in the lead up to 2004. William- I promise you I’m quite intelligent when needed to be.
I have respected and looked on in technocrat bliss ever since you came on the scene William. Please offer me an in instead of hating on me