YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor’s nose back in front in the latest YouGov poll as Peter Dutton’s personal ratings maintain a downward trajectory.

A garden variety federal poll from YouGov, as distinct from its massive MRP endeavour last week, finds both major parties down on the primary vote since the last such poll a fortnight ago: Labor by one to 30% and the Coalition by two to 35%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 13% and 7% respectively, Trumpet of Patriots up from 1% to 2%, and independents up two to 10%. Labor has recovered a 51-49 lead it lost with a return to 50-50 at the last poll, based on a respondent-allocated preferences split that makes use of the voluminous data from the MRP polling.

The poll adds to the marked downward trajectory of Peter Dutton’s recent personal ratings, his approval down four to 38% and disapproval up six to 53%. Anthony Albanese is up three to 44% and steady on 50%. There is nonetheless only a modest change on preferred prime minister, with Albanese’s lead out from 45-40 to 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1622.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Most of the YouGov polling was done before the latest Trump tariffs announcement yesterday. I thought there might be a rally around the government moment from the public after Trump’s tariff announcement yesterday. So this poll hasn’t captured the latest bump or spike to Labor’s polling which I predict there will be after yesterday.

  2. Dutton has cooked it. He could have spent three years coming up with policies, facing media, etc. Instead he’s gone for a small target campaign which really doesn’t suit the mood at the moment. His frustration is growing ever more apparent, and I’m here for it.

  3. FUBAR says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:52 pm
    The Odd One says:
    Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 11:48 pm

    First time I’ve ever seen a trade deficit described in those terms. You might pick up a Nobel Prize.

    Lots of other countries are very happy to receive USD in exchange for whatever they sell to the US.

    Odd One is correct. Exports are the result of productive activity in one domain that occurs for the satisfaction of demand in another, extra-national domain. When the US receives goods and services from an external location it pays for them with an IOU – with US currency. Those IOUs are essentially worthless in the recipient economy. So they are returned, one way or another, to the issuing monetary system: to the US. So the US, when it imports, receives the goods and services and its IOUs are returned for recycling in the US-domiciled monetary/ financial complex.

    This is more or less unique in the case of the US. This advantage arises from the status of the USD as a reserve currency. This confers very great benefits to the US. It can issue as many USD as are required to finance its trade, more or less without limit.

    Such extra-territorial trade-focussed domains constitute a shadow economy for the US. They exist to satisfy US consumption. They are mobilised with USD. They are also very significantly US-owned/invested/controlled.

    It really makes no sense to say the US is ‘in deficit’ in any conventional sense. Its economic reach – really, it’s economic composition – extends well beyond its continental limits.

    Trump – a neurotic moron – absolutely does not understand the dynamics of the US economy in either its domestic or its external dimensions/relations. He’s trying to destroy it. In so doing he will harm both the shadow/non-Continental economy and domestic producers and consumers. He is a complete imbecile.

    Every dollar spent by the US on imports in its current account is returned to the US in its capital account. Its IOUs are recycled…used to buy other USD-denominated IOUs….treasuries, bank deposits and equities. Trump will tax US consumers, drive down real wages, depress production and divert investment away from the US. He is an economic dunce.

  5. Great comment from the previous thread from a new poster who gets it all spot on:

    Playa Girónsays:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 1:43 am
    The Greens during this term of Parliament has been nothing short of reprehensible.

    At the 2022 election, Labor promised to establish a $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund but the The Greens teamed up with Dutton and refused to pass the legislation that was given the affirmative by the electorate in 2022.

    Bandt and Chandler-Mather then went around saying the ALP had done nothing on housing with Chandler-Mather bragging in the Jacobin magazine that it was a deliberate ploy by not, “Allowing the HAFF to pass would demobilise the growing section of civil society that is justifiably angry.”. In other words, politicise the urgent need for housing and wind up those who are desperate for a home and blame it on the ALP.

    They politicised the Voice and gave Dutton and the right wing all the ammunition they could wish for just to appease a small faction in their own party to the detriment of Indigenous people.

    They attacked the ALP who have had, as part of their platform, a two state solution for 50 years and who were one of the first to stand up in the UN and condemn Netanyahu over his savage retribution, but said absolutely nothing about Dutton visiting the far right leader of Israel to give him his support.

    All of these manoeuvres were an attempt to try and get a few votes off the ALP but all they have succeeded in doing, is to assist Dutton in his relentless campaign to sweep under the carpet the disgraceful state Australia was in when the ALP took office and put the blame on the Albanese Government and some wonder why “Labor types” are livid with the Greens?

    Dutton has had a free ride thanks to the Greens lack of indignation and fury at his far-right, dogwhistling, Trumpian garbage and assisted him with their deathly silence. Who would have ever thought that the Greens would stay silent when Dutton announced his Nuclear plan?

    More please!

  6. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says it is “nonsense” that Australia bans American beef imports due to disease or chemical concerns, arguing it is simply a protectionist tactic to prop up local farmers and block American sellers.

    He also warned President Donald Trump would not back down on the sweeping worldwide tariffs he announced on Thursday until other countries changed their policies and eliminated those practices the US sees as unfair trade barriers.

    “Our farmers are blocked from selling almost anywhere … Europe won’t let us sell beef, Australia won’t let us sell beef,” Lutnick told CNN on Thursday (Friday AEDT). The interviewer interjected to say this was “because of hormonal chemicals”.

    Lutnick replied: “No, no, that’s not why. It’s because they just wanna protect, they want to say: oh, what, the seeds are different? Other people in the world are using seeds that, insects … come on, this is nonsense. This is all nonsense. What happens is they block our markets.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/lutnick-calls-australian-biosecurity-rules-nonsense-says-trump-won-t-back-off-20250404-p5lp2f.html

    Sorry Howard, we like our beef disease-free.

  7. Ignoring all the issues with tariffs, particularly the depressed growth it encourages, dobthey actually raise revenue like a consumption tax? Will the US get their 20% or so revenue on all imports?

    I need a bit of an explainer.

  8. ‘Labor’s nose back in front’.

    Political campaigns are actually a game of 2 steps forward, one step back. Except if you’re Dutton, who seems to be taking one step forward and 2 steps back.

    So what is interesting to me is that Dutton appears to have decided to drop the attempt at Mr Nice Guy in the campaign, except where he’s attempting, because that’s all it ever is, an attempt as it isn’t his natural self, to glad hand the rubes in set piece events. Yet, wasn’t that the reason, as he acknowledged himself when he pivoted to ‘Mr Nice Guy’, that the electorate weren’t impressed with him from the get-go? That they didn’t like Peter Dutton, Head Kicker? So I find it strange that he thinks pivoting back to that persona, with his constant denigration of the Prime Minister, is a winning formula for him in this campaign, when you can see from the YouGov results that it’s not?

    Maybe he thinks it’s worth it to take some paint off his personal approval ratings in order to devalue the Prime Minister in the electorate’s eyes? Weird, if so.

  9. Mostly Interested,
    Going by Trump’s reported comments he’s looking at getting rid of Income Tax and replacing it with a broad-based Consumption Tax, ie Tariffs. 😯

  13. Weirdly I always saw a bit of inspiration from Paul Keating in Dutton but whereas Keating was original Dutton seems like a copy cat. Keating also used his boots and all personality to achieve good things ( at least from my thinking), Dutton has no such motivation and is a small minded small business type cove with a focus on the individual and appealing to the selfish gene. Things seem to be going south for the liberals right now but two things are probably in Dutton’s favour , his age and the fact the LNP is almost totally bereft of talent leaving him as the only viable leader for the foreseeable future. If Labor wins I can’t think of anyone to replace him.

  14. Not all are thrilled by Trump’s Tariffs..

    Lawrence Summers, who served as Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, said he would have “resigned in protest” had he been part of an administration that put into effect the sort of “dangerous and damaging” tariffs plan announced by President Trump.

    In a string of posts on X on Thursday afternoon, Mr. Summers compared President Trump’s tariff policy to “what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy, or RFK thought is to vaccine science.”

    He added, “If any administration of which I was a part had launched an economic policy so totally ungrounded in serious analysis or so dangerous and damaging, I would have resigned in protest.”

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 6:35 am
    Great comment from the previous thread from a new poster who gets it all spot on:

    Playa Girónsays:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 1:43 am
    The Greens during this term of Parliament has been nothing short of reprehensible.

    Yup. Pins the Greens exactly. They are wingmen for the Reactionaries.

  17. The person having a worse time of it right now than Peter Dutton is Elon Musk who is quickly overstaying his welcome in Trump Land.

    Musk seems, at least outwardly, unable to reckon with his current position. Just days after framing this race as a hinge point for “the entire destiny of humanity,” Musk said on X that “I expected to lose, but there is value to losing a piece for positional gain.” From the outside, though, it’s difficult to see what he’s gained. Last week, protesters demonstrated outside hundreds of Tesla locations; Musk has long been erratic, but his dalliance with DOGE has alienated environmentally conscious liberals, a major demographic for electric vehicles. And by seeming so focused on DOGE, he’s frustrated investors who worry that Tesla is losing its first-mover advantage in the United States. Foreign rivals, such as China’s BYD, are quickly gaining steam. Tesla’s stock price instantly rose 15 points on the reports that Musk would soon leave the administration.

    There is a case to be made that Musk’s cozying up to Trump will ultimately benefit Musk’s empire—avoiding regulations that may help with Tesla’s self-driving plans or SpaceX and Starlink contracts, for example. But so many of the signs point to a less desirable outcome. Musk’s outsize support of Trump was always a political risk, but his decision to come aboard the administration and, at one time, position himself as a kind of shadow president is arguably the biggest bet of his career. In the short term, it does not appear to be paying off.

    Musk woke up this morning less popular than he’s been in recent memory. He’s alienated himself from an American public that used to widely revere him, and his political capital seems to be fading rapidly. The only question now is whether, after getting a taste of the political spotlight, he’ll be able to give it up without a fight.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2025/04/elon-musk-has-overstayed-his-welcome/682275/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=true-anthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

  18. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 6:44 am
    ‘Labor’s nose back in front’.

    Political campaigns are actually a game of 2 steps forward, one step back. Except if you’re Dutton, who seems to be taking one step forward and 2 steps back.

    So what is interesting to me is that Dutton appears to have decided to drop the attempt at Mr Nice Guy in the campaign, except where he’s attempting, because that’s all it ever is, an attempt as it isn’t his natural self, to glad hand the rubes in set piece events. Yet, wasn’t that the reason, as he acknowledged himself when he pivoted to ‘Mr Nice Guy’, that the electorate weren’t impressed with him from the get-go? That they didn’t like Peter Dutton, Head Kicker? So I find it strange that he thinks pivoting back to that persona, with his constant denigration of the Prime Minister, is a winning formula for him in this campaign, when you can see from the YouGov results that it’s not?

    Voters in WA will not like an aggro Dutton. We like our politics to be conducted with at least a semblance of mutual respect. Public fighting is not welcome. Dutton continues to campaign against himself. Hopefully the Reactionaries will lose most of their remaining seats in Western Australia. They deserve to hold none at all.

  19. I think the polling is starting to be pretty clear that Dutton is the problem for the Coalition. People have been seeing a lot more of him recently, and the more air time he has had the more his personal numbers and the Coalition primary vote decline.

    As others have pointed out, the outer metropolitan figures out of RedBridge and the YouGov MRP don’t show the Coalition turning the outer suburbs in the way polling was a few months ago. Personally, I think Dutton started to look too trumpy and has lost much of the naturally socially conservative immigrant vote in the outer ‘burbs. And my guess is that he’s probably lost them permanently.

  22. I’m hoping the Reactionaries return fewer than 50 members to the Reps. If electoral justice were to be more fully served they would return fewer than 40. They are thoroughly estranged from the electorate and deserve to be comprehensively thrashed.

  24. With Trump hellbent on destroying Western alliances, and his own country’s economy, one can only wonder about the poor judgment of the Liberal Party..

  25. Nike: -14.4%
    Bank of America: -11%
    American Express: -10%
    Morgan Stanley: -9.2%
    Goldman Sachs: -9.2%
    Apple: -9.2%
    Amazon: -8.9%
    Meta: -8.9%
    NVIDIA: -7.8%
    JPMorgan: -7%
    Chevron: -6.2%
    General Electric: -6%
    Ford: -5.9%
    Tesla: -5.4%
    Exxon: -5.2%
    General Motors: -4.2%
    Alphabet: -3.9%
    Mastercard: -3%
    Microsoft: -2.3%
    Visa: -2%

    Bloomberg reports the US Dollar has posted its worst single-day loss in over two years

  26. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 7:46 am
    With Trump hellbent on destroying Western alliances, and his own country’s economy, one can only wonder about the poor judgment of the Liberal Party..

    They are ideologues, through and through. They remind me of Jeremy Corbyn and the New Left. They are completely out of touch with and disapproving of the overwhelming majority of the electorate. They should dissolve themselves.

  31. Wombat

    Iran and Belarus also escaped Trump’s tariffs – the argument being they are under sanctions, and don’t have any trade with the USA.

  32. good call c@t, Dutton is looking desperate and is thrashing around like a beached blowie . last week he even said Albo won’t be able to form majority government , sounded like he knows he can’t win…

  33. It appears Freshwater Strategy is walking both sides of the street…

    The Coalition’s internal pollster is helping orchestrate a campaign to boost public support for the gas industry ahead of the federal election in what has been described as “textbook astroturfing”.

    An ABC investigation has discovered the public relations and research firm Freshwater Strategy is working with Australians for Natural Gas, which claims to be a grassroots movement representing households and small business.

    Corporate records show the group was set up by the CEO of Tamboran Resources — a gas company developing fracking operations in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin, which is listed on the Australian share market and New York Stock Exchange.

    Freshwater Strategy has also been hired by the Coalition to conduct internal polling and voter research during the federal election campaign.

    Emails obtained by ABC Investigations show Freshwater Strategy director Jonathon Flegg offering to give a personal briefing about Australians for Natural Gas to figures in the business community.

    “All of the published opinion polls are pointing to the likelihood of a hostile minority government after the forthcoming federal election,” he wrote in an email sent earlier this year.

    “The future of our domestic energy security hinges in the balance, impacting all Australians.”

    Mr Flegg wrote in another email in March: “Australia’s domestic supply of natural gas has come under considerable pressure due to the lack of pro-gas policies, and we argue this must change.”

    The emails were not sent from Mr Flegg’s Freshwater Strategy email address, but an account linked to Australians for Natural Gas.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/coalition-pollster-working-with-australians-for-natural-gas/105129478

  35. sprocket_says:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 7:58 am
    Wombat

    Iran and Belarus also escaped Trump’s tariffs – the argument being they are under sanctions, and don’t have any trade with the USA.
    *****************************
    That’s actually not true for Russia. Russia is still doing about $6 billion a year in trade with the US. Not a heap but a fair bit more than say, Norfolk Island.

  36. For years 77 million yanks who voted for Trump were told at his public speech’s etc including the one he was almost shot in the head that he will increase tariffs and they obviously voted for this action.
    The USA haters enjoy a 1.2 trillion yearly trade deficit a 1.5 trillion budget deficit and a 35 trillion debt.

    Now cloud cuckoo land is for the people who think that is sustainable with 15% of budget going to interest to pay off the debt and it’s been increasing.

    Well done To Musk who for no pay is fixing this disaster.

    Also the USA is not the worlds automatic teller machine .Welcome to the real world it’s not going to be like precovid and China is being dealt with.

    Australia needs to boost its productivity,lose its quota policy aka DEI and get merit back into hiring and become match fit in this new world as ten years of deficits will not cut it as labor announced and the free ride is over via China soon.

    Easier to destroy teslas than face and deal with reality hey haters!

    Borders secure,fentanyl crisis over etc etc

  37. Biggest day fall in two years? Back to levels of 9mnths ago? Trump will take that.

    It’s not what happened on the markets yesterday and overnight that matters to him and his voters.

    If it continues into bear territory, that’s another thing.

  38. World News & Politics Patrol:

    U.S. companies say Canadian retailers are turning away products: https://globalnews.ca/news/11106170/buy-canadian-us-companies-impact-canada-retailers/

    Carney: ’If the United States does not want to lead, Canada will’: https://uk.investing.com/news/economy-news/carney-if-the-united-states-does-not-want-to-lead-canada-will-4013689

    Macron Issues a Corporate Call to Arms: EU Stop Investing in US: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/france-s-macron-urges-companies-to-pause-us-investments-m91u2sfp

    Dollar sinks as investors grapple with tariff aftermath: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-slides-traders-rush-into-safe-havens-after-us-tariffs-2025-04-03/

    White House explains why new tariffs do not apply to Russia, North Korea: https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-white-house-explains-why-new-tariffs-do-not-apply-to-russia-and-north-korea

    Trump tariffs could undermine Brexit deal in Northern Ireland: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/trump-tariffs-brexit-deal-northern-ireland

    Trump tells UK to buy chlorinated chicken from US if it wants tariff relief: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-tariffs-chlorinated-chicken-uk-b2726709.html

    We need more male teachers so British boys have role models, says minister: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/apr/03/bridget-phillipson-education-secretary-more-male-teachers-adolescence

    UK and Australia to build next-gen Modular Weapons Systems: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-and-australia-to-build-next-gen-modular-weapons-systems/

    Trump Jets Off to Watch Golf as U.S. Economy Goes Up in Flames: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-jets-off-to-watch-golf-as-us-economy-goes-up-in-flames/

    Republicans panic over Trump tariffs: Last time “we lost the House and the Senate for 60 years”: https://www.salon.com/2025/04/03/panic-over-tariffs-last-time-we-lost-the-and-the-senate-for-60-years/

    Trump Accused of Using ChatGPT to Create Tariff Plan After AI Leads Users to Same Formula: ‘So AI is Running the Country’: https://www.latintimes.com/trump-accused-using-chatgpt-create-tariff-plan-after-ai-leads-users-same-formula-so-ai-579899

    MAGA Rages at Mike Pence for Torching Trump’s Tariffs as ‘Largest Peacetime Tax Hike in History’: https://www.thedailybeast.com/maga-rages-at-mike-pence-for-torching-trumps-tariffs-as-largest-peacetime-tax-hike-in-history/

    Trump’s new tariffs would be laughed out of a high school economics class, analyst says: https://qz.com/donald-trump-reciprocal-tariffs-retaliation-lutnick-1851774485

    Stable Genius Trump Just Put Tariffs on a U.S. Military Base: https://newrepublic.com/post/193523/donald-trump-tariffs-us-military-base

    Trump says China could get tariff relief if it approves TikTok deal: https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-says-china-could-get-tariff-relief-if-it-approves-tiktok-deal-2025-04-03/

    Pentagon watchdog to review Hegseth’s use of Signal app to convey plans for Houthi strike: https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-signal-messaging-app-attack-plans-f8581bcb447b91d2e7f9cb7809ae0f06

    The White House has fired multiple administration officials, including at least three National Security Council staffers, three sources familiar with the move told CNN. The firings came after Laura Loomer, the far-right activist who once claimed 9/11 was an inside job, urged President Donald Trump during a Wednesday meeting to get rid of several members of his National Security Council staff, including his principal deputy national security adviser, claiming that they are disloyal: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/03/politics/nsc-firings-trump-laura-loomer-meeting/index.html

    E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk’s X: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/eu-penalties-x-elon-musk.html?unlocked_article_code=1.804.2Cke.TPsSkrqfiSIs

  39. Good Morning! Election Campaign Day 7 News and Views Roundup.

    Emails obtained by ABC Investigations show Freshwater Strategy is trying to gather business-sector support for a group called Australians for Natural Gas. Freshwater Strategy has also been hired to run internal polling and focus groups for the Coalition during the election campaign. QUT political communications expert Daniel Angus described the pro-gas group’s activities as “textbook astroturfing”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/coalition-pollster-working-with-australians-for-natural-gas/105129478

    The relationship between Peter Dutton and mining billionaire Gina Rinehart has cooled over the opposition leader’s gas plan. Ms Rinehart’s company website features articles critical of the plan, and a senior Coalition source told the ABC she felt he had failed to deliver sufficiently pro-business policies.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-03/dutton-rinehart-fall-out-over-gas/105133592

    PM stumbles, but Dutton’s approval rating sinks ‘like a stone’
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/04/yougov-federal-election

    Dutton dressed as lame
    By Stephen Koukoulas
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/stephen-koukoulas-dutton-dressed-as-lame,19594

    US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says it is “nonsense” that Australia bans American beef imports due to disease or chemical concerns, arguing it is simply a protectionist tactic to prop up local farmers and block American sellers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/lutnick-calls-australian-biosecurity-rules-nonsense-says-trump-won-t-back-off-20250404-p5lp2f.html

    Wall Street suffers $3.2 trillion wipeout as Trump tariffs spark market chaos
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/us-stock-market-leads-worldwide-sell-off-following-trump-s-tariff-shock-20250404-p5lp2e.html

    Donald Trump’s dumb war just got much, much dumber. By Stephen Bartholomeusz
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/donald-trump-s-dumb-trade-war-just-got-much-much-dumber-20250403-p5lor6.html

    Donald Trump spent 48 minutes declaring war on trade. We fact-checked his claims
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-spent-48-minutes-declaring-war-on-trade-we-fact-checked-his-claims-20250403-p5lour.html

    Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ look to be a hoax. Here’s how you can tell.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-reciprocal-tariffs-look-to-be-a-hoax-here-s-how-you-can-tell-20250403-p5louw.html

    SMH Editorial. Trump’s tariffs will hurt the world and the ones who love him most
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-tariffs-will-hurt-the-world-and-the-ones-who-love-him-most-20250403-p5loua.html

    Australia escapes worst of Trump’s tariffs but still bracing for turmoil in Asia
    By foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-03/us-asia-trump-tariffs-what-it-means-for-australia/105133246

    Speaking with Samantha Selinger-Morris on The Morning Edition podcast, Peter Hartcher, international and political editor explains why Trump has delivered a massive advantage to China’s Xi Jinping on a silver platter.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-delivers-huge-advantage-to-china-with-self-destructive-tariffs-20250403-p5lovi.html

    Brexit for the US: Trump’s tariffs are the sign of a nation in decline. By Waleed Aly
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/brexit-for-the-us-trump-s-tariffs-are-the-sign-of-a-nation-in-decline-20250403-p5lot5.html

    Trying too hard for special tariff deal with Trump could be wrong way to go By Michelle Grattan
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/trying-for-special-tariff-deal-with-trump-wrong-way-to-go/105135642

    New modelling reveals full impact of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – with the US hit hardest
    https://theconversation.com/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest-253320

    It had the hallmarks of a reality TV cliffhanger. Until recently, many people had never even heard of tariffs. What might the next “episode” hold for the rest of the world? We can expect many countries to retaliate, bringing in tariffs and trade penalties of their own. That comes with risks.
    https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-will-hurt-everyone-from-cambodian-factories-to-us-online-shoppers-253726

    US tariffs will upend global trade. This is how Australia can respond
    https://theconversation.com/us-tariffs-will-upend-global-trade-this-is-how-australia-can-respond-253621

    Trump is now looming even larger over the federal election. These are choppy waters for Australia
    Arthur Sinodinos
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-on-australia-comment-election-impact

    The ABC will hold an election debate between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton at 8pm AEST, Wednesday April 16. The debate, to be moderated by David Speers at the public broadcaster’s new Parramatta studios, will be its first in an ABC studio since 1993.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-03/abc-to-host-election-leaders-debate/105130036

    Albanese threatens to use ‘dispute resolution’ powers against sweeping US tariffs
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-03/election-2025-albanese-responds-trump-tariffs-beef/105130768

    The impact of Trump 2.0 on Australia is evidence of how American we suddenly aren’t
    Van Badham
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/19/the-impact-of-trump-20-on-australia-is-evidence-of-how-american-we-suddenly-arent

    There will be tariffs on Australian wine, but it’s not all bad news.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/there-will-be-tariffs-on-australian-wine-but-it-s-not-all-bad-news-20250403-p5lowl.html

    The day Trump hijacked the Australian election, until the PM took to the stage
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-day-trump-hijacked-the-australian-election-until-the-pm-took-to-the-stage-20250403-p5louu.html

    An Australian was denied US entry for bizarre reasons. He’s not alone.
    https://www.smh.com.au/traveller/travel-news/an-australian-was-denied-us-entry-for-bizarre-reasons-he-s-not-alone-20250403-p5lov8.html

    Australia’s best hope: wait for Americans to turn on Trump. By David Crowe
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-best-hope-wait-for-americans-to-turn-on-trump-20250403-p5losp.html

    9Fax spoke to 12 undecided voters and asked them how they felt about the May 3 election, what they thought the big issues were – and what they thought the result would be.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-asked-australians-what-they-really-think-about-this-election-here-s-what-they-said-20250402-p5loiy.html

    Healthcare a key election issue in Brisbane as Labor, Coalition threaten to take federal seat from Greens
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/brisbane-cost-of-healthcare-key-election-greens-labor-coalition/105104586

    ‘There’s an us v them mentality’: are young Australian men and women drifting apart politically?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/04/theres-an-us-v-them-mentality-are-young-australian-men-and-women-drifting-apart-politically

    This election, what are Labor and the Coalition offering on the energy transition, climate adaptation and emissions?
    https://theconversation.com/this-election-what-are-labor-and-the-coalition-offering-on-the-energy-transition-climate-adaptation-and-emissions-253430

    Opposition frontbenchers Bridget McKenzie and Barnaby Joyce are among the Nationals MPs facing a possible demotion following the election, as the Liberals are expected to gain extra seats in the election and be awarded additional (shadow) cabinet positions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-2025-live-updates-fallout-continues-from-trump-s-10-per-cent-tariffs-on-australian-goods-keating-lambie-urge-for-us-defence-pacts-to-be-reconsidered-20250403-p5loz9.html

    Liberal candidate says women should not serve in ADF combat roles amid range of controversial views
    Benjamin Britton, standing in the seat of Whitlam, told a rightwing podcast Australia’s education system ‘brainwashed’ students with Marxist ideology, and praised Isle of Man flat tax. The Liberal candidate for Whitlam, Benjamin Britton, has been praised by Peter Dutton as an ‘outstanding candidate’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/04/liberal-candidate-says-women-should-not-serve-in-adf-combat-roles-amid-range-of-controversial-views

    Newsroom edition: have vibes replaced policy in this election? – Full Story podcast
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/apr/03/newsroom-edition-have-vibes-replaced-policy-in-this-election-full-story-podcast

    A huge coastal swell has caused landslips underneath beachfront properties on parts of the NSW Central Coast at the heart of a heated debate over a proposed seawall.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/ocean-swells-erode-beachfront-properties-on-central-coast-20250402-p5lop4.html

    This one’s for nath! Two men have been charged after allegedly carrying loaded firearms into Thursday night’s blockbuster between Collingwood and Carlton. The guns were allegedly found hidden down the men’s pants in a major breach of the stadium’s security as 82,000 fans watched Carlton’s round 4 loss.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/men-with-guns-arrested-inside-mcg-during-afl-match-20250403-p5lp2b.html

    Mother of trans teen takes legal action over Queensland’s puberty blocker freeze for new patients under 18
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/qld-trans-teens-mother-begins-legal-action-puberty-blocker-ban/105071600

    Review ordered into SA gender diversity service’s compliance with state guidelines
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/review-ordered-into-sa-gender-diversity-service-compliance/105133508

    The NSW drug summit report has recommended sniffer dogs and strip searches be scraped at festivals.
    It’s also recommended the creation of a legal defence for drivers caught with medicinal cannabis.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-03/nsw-drug-summit-report-axe-sniffer-dogs-strip-searches-festivals/105132810

    A defiant Kim Williams said he was under no illusions and expected a funding review and potential cuts to the ABC under a Coalition government, saying he was ready to defend the broadcaster’s efficiency, declaring it was “game on”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/game-on-kim-williams-welcomes-dutton-s-abc-funding-review-20250403-p5lotn.html

    Talk of Trump leaving NATO is ‘hysteria and hyperbole’, Rubio tells Europe.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/talk-of-trump-leaving-nato-is-hysteria-and-hyperbole-rubio-tells-europe-20250404-p5lp2g.html

    Macron calls on EU companies to freeze investments in US. French president says Europe shouldn’t invest in America “for some time until we have clarified things.”
    https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-eu-companies-should-freeze-investment-in-the-u-s-until-trump-calms-down/

    Trump tariffs put Europe’s far-right leaders in a bind. MAGA’s biggest cheerleaders struggle to justify “Make America Wealthy Again” measures.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-tariff-europe-far-right-leader/

    For Europe’s populists, Trump is a mixed blessing. U.S. president’s continuous economic brinkmanship and bullying is presenting sharp dilemmas across the pond.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-populism-donald-trump-conservatives/

    Spain unveils €14B aid plan to counteract Trump tariffs
    https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-unveils-e14-billion-aid-plan-counteract-donald-trump-tariffs-pedro-sanchez/

    Europe must pile pressure on Trump over tariffs, Germany’s Habeck urges. Berlin’s economy minister talks of a pivot point in global trade — and an opportunity for the continent to forge new alliances.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-economy-minister-robert-habeck-international-alliance-against-donald-trump-tariffs/

    ‘I hope he’s right’: Markets tumble on tariffs — but Trump isn’t flinching. Americans watched in horror as their 401(k)s plunged Thursday morning after the markets opened. “I don’t think there’s any chance … that President Trump is going to back off his tariffs,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on CNN. “This is the reordering of global trade.”
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/03/i-hope-hes-right-markets-tumble-on-tariffs-but-trump-isnt-flinching-00269800

    ‘This Could Get Much Uglier’: The Fatal Flaw in Trump’s Trade War. Trump’s radical tariff program is aimed at restoring U.S. manufacturing greatness. He’s getting in his own way.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-manufacturing-confusion-00267945

    How memes spread conspiracy theories – and what to consider before sharing one
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/social-media/2025/04/03/memes-conspiracy-theories-safety

    Cartoon Time!

    Alan Moir

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding

    Simon Letch

    Fiona Katauskas

    Ben Jennings on Donald Trump’s international trade tariffs

    Nicola Jennings on Donald Trump getting his revenge on the world

    From the Internet

    Michael De Adder

    Enjoy!

  40. It ain’t over folks, not till the fat man sings…

    President Trump said Thursday he would unveil additional tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, he said the chip tariffs are “starting very soon,” and that the pharma-related tariffs are “under review right now.”
    ….
    The Trump administration will place a 25 percent tariff on aluminum cans used for imported beer starting Friday, a potential hit to the multibillion-dollar brewing industry that could result in higher prices for consumers.

    Those cans, as well as imported empty aluminum cans, were added to a list of items subject to sweeping tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum that went into effect last month, the Commerce Department said in a notice on Wednesday.

    More than $7.5 billion worth of beer was imported into the United States last year, according to Census Bureau data, and 40 percent came in cans, according to an analysis from the Beer Institute. The bulk of imported beer comes from Mexico, followed by the Netherlands, Ireland and Canada.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/04/03/business/trump-tariffs

  41. I posted something similar last election campaign.

    Once again things are finely balanced with plenty of time for either side. (although having said that, The Coalition vote does seem to be slipping backwards just a little bit at the start of the campaign)

    It seems to me that in every election campaign one side will reach a point where they can see things heading south, and they feel the need to throw a “Hail Mary” pass (those who understand NFL will know what I mean)
    Sometimes it works, usually it doesn’t…..

    In 2019 SCOMO threw out the “end the weekend” line. Which is the exception to prove the rule.

    In 2022 he tried again with fuel excise cuts, but by that stage everyone had had enough of him and it didn’t matter any more.

    My point is, you can usually tell who is “losing” the campaign, by who throws out that first “Hail Mary”

    I wonder who and what it will be this time…..

    My ten cents:

    I suspect with how things are moving at the moment that it will be the LNP who gets desperate enough to throw it out first, but I could be wrong (and I frequently am)

  42. Oil price down 7% this morning.
    AUD up to 0.6325
    Looks like big falls in petrol prices in Australia coming in the next few weeks

  45. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 4, 2025 at 8:20 am
    Good Morning! Election Campaign Day 7 News and Views Roundup.
    _____________________
    The Kouk is definitely in the views column.
    I don’t know why you bother with him.

  46. gill at 2.28 am

    As a matter of physics momentum is possible backwards or forwards.

    Dutton is increasing his momentum in the backwards direction, like a driver in a car with only reverse gear.

  47. “Looks like big falls in petrol prices in Australia coming in the next few weeks”

    Look how Trump has benefited the nations allied to America!
    If Dutton is elected, not only will we be better positioned to negotiate with President Trump, our commute will be even cheaper!

  50. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
    YouGov ALP 30 L-NP 35 GRN 13 ON 7 IND 10* TOP 2 OTH 3
    *generic ballot, likely overstated
    2PP 51-49 to ALP (+1) by YouGov
    modified preferences (I get 52.1 (+0.6) by last-election prefs)

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