Click here for full display of Western Australian state election results.
Live commentary
9.43pm. Early days in a very slow count, but the disendorsed Liberal candidate is looking competitive in Kimberley (part of a pattern of big swings against Labor in regional areas).
9.40pm. More TCP counts now unlocked, as far down the alphabet as Scarborough.
9.12pm. A lot of seats (though not all) between A and K have had their TCP numbers unlocked.
9.02pm. The WAEC has unleashed its first two-candidate preferred numbers, for the exquisitely uninteresting seat of Armadale. A good occasion to remind you all that my projections are based entirely on my pre-determined estimates of how preferences would flow.
8.30pm. Something else I’ll stick my nose in about: amid a result that’s surprising on the up side for Labor (or do I mean on the down side for Liberal), do keep in mind that we will see a flood of early votes coming in from around 10pm. When this happened in New South Wales, Labor lost the majority that everyone was projecting early in the evening. And another thing: if you’re enjoying my live results (or anything else here), please consider a donation through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.
7.51pm. Something I’ll stick my nose in about: there is a result in Fremantle for the Fremantle Early Polling Place which is fairly spectacular for independent Kate Hulett. But over 9000 votes were cast at that booth, and there’s only 635 of them here. So I imagine what we’re seeing here is election day results, to which the much larger amount of early votes will be added later. But the swing is based off a historic result that makes no distinction between them. Still, it’s obviously interesting that there’s a booth where Hulett is on 38.2%.
6.36pm. In short, mobile polling booths — aged care facilities and such — are reporting their results.
6.28pm. My system has successfully processed the first result – mobile voting from Scarborough – which is always a relief.
6pm. Polls have closed. I’m not going to be providing running commentary on the results, but I may pop in from time to time to explain technical details of what’s going on with the results.
Preview
This post will be used to provide a discussion forum for today’s Western Australian election, and as a launching pad for the live results feature linked to above. It will be the first workout of my new three-candidate model for projecting results at a general election, which received some useful stress testing at last month’s state by-elections in Victoria. My back-room involvement with Nine’s television coverage means I’m unlikely to have much to offer in the way of supplementary commentary this evening, but hopefully my results projections will speak for themselves. I had some further thoughts on the matter in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday. Yesterday’s post reported on the only public polling to have emerged since the start of the campaign – today’s newspaper’s offer little in the way of further intelligence on what might be expected this evening, although Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports a view in both camps that the polls’ implication of around 11 seats for the Liberals and Nationals combined is “at the lower end of potential losses for Labor”.
The Western Australian Electoral Commission acknowledges a likely feature of tonight’s counting that has become familiar to election watchers across the land: a lull in proceedings between 8pm, by which time most of the election day booths have reported their results, and at least 10pm, which is at long as it takes for most of the early polling places to process their many thousands of votes. The WAEC relates that 557,693 out of 1,868,946 enrolled voters have cast votes at early polling places, which I actually make to be down a little on 2021. There is no data that I’m aware of on postal votes — those that have been received will also be counted this evening. Only first preference above-the-line votes will be counted for the Legislative Council, the process for which will drag out until at least the end of the month.
Some other peculiarities of tonight’s proceedings are worth noting. This is the first Western Australian election at which early votes are ordinary rather than declaration votes, meaning the results category of “Early Votes (in Person)” has been abolished. The early polling place locations around the state will all be open today as well, and the results reported for them will include both the early and election day votes. Early votes cast out of district are now classified as absent votes, which are still declaration votes and will thus not be counted this evening. This is particularly significant in the case of Kalamunda, Forrestfield, Butler and Baldivis, which do not have a dedicated early polling place. Voters in these seats will doubtless have cast absent votes in neighbouring electorates in very large numbers, none of which will be counted this evening. All of which has made life complicated for those of us who create historic datasets allowing for swing calculations and booth-matched projections of the results.
Another unusual feature of the WAEC’s procedures is that the notional two-candidate preferred counts are kept under wraps until the commission is satisfied it has picked the right candidates, which seemed to start happening on a large scale at around 7:30pm in 2021. This means that the various media outlets’ results projections, including my own, will be based on speculative preference estimates for much of the night. My system is geared to be rather conservative when when going off preference estimates, and I’m guessing it will lag behind other media outlets in calling results.
Moustache is getting stuck in.
Trying out for sky?
The lady sitting next to Speers has the personality of a sloth!
Rebecca says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:28 pm
The WA ALP may as well call themselves Liberal. Fully support the Gas and Oil industry. Support the NW Shelf expansion and Scarborough Field development. Criticise the Federal ALP attempts to shut down mining and oil and gas through Green Tape. Criticise the industrial relations changes allowing multi-entity bargaining. Oppose the ban on live sheep exports.
The natives in Fremantle get itchy dreadlocks from that.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:35 pm
Re Dr Fumbles @11:22 (AEDT) ”…was having a laugh at that too – we just need to be more conservative and shift further right”
That’s been the standard Liberal reaction to any electoral setback for quite a while now.
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Have we had the “the electorate just didn’t get our message” yet excuse for the bingo card?
Clearly I’m not the only one who hates Baz.
Riverton called for Dr Jags
It’s Spencer-Teover
Surprised at the lack of buyers remorse on one of the worst representatives of all time
FUBAR,
I assume you voted Labor and are happy with the result, then?
FUBARsays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:43 pm
Rebecca says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:28 pm
The WA ALP may as well call themselves Liberal.
—–
True Labor is now the actual liberal party.
mj, if Baz wins, that could be an overall negative for the Liberals.
William, slight bug in the table for projected two-party: Central Wheatbelt and Roe have 100% for L-NP (due to being a Lib/Nat top two I guess?).
If the federal election is same as recent state elections there will be two fewer teals.
Rossmcg will be happy: Love re-elected.
slow count – We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election.
Pretty bad ABC panel, Rita is just repeating the labor spin lines, Liberal guy has no clue (thinks lax gun laws are gonna be a winner in a mostly metro state lol). The local reporters are pretty average too. Feel bad for Antony being amongst this rabble.
I don’t see Baz being willing to put in the hard yards as Leader of the Opposition for the next 4 (probably 8) years, with only about half a dozen Libs in the lower house.
Almost 9pm, still nothing from Midland or Murray-Wellington. What are they doing there? Several other seats with <10% counted too.
Correct. Not ideal but it beats four sets of columns.
Liberal candidate Sandra Brewer appears to win Cottesloe.
Sandra Brewer talks like Michaela Cash.
Yep young Angus panel has fleas.
Lib for Cottesloe got stuck into teal Mega!
Rita is patronising speers!
Roger Millersays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:51 pm
mj, if Baz wins, that could be an overall negative for the Liberals
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I’m sure it would be.
DB Cooper says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:48 pm
In the seat I am in my vote makes zero difference in the LA.
I’m not distraught. Of course I’d prefer an LNP win. But if the WA ALP government keeps the gas and oil and mining industries pumping then that’s great for all West Australians.
I’m particularly happy with the massive swings in the out suburbs that cover ALP federal seats.
Think this site is correct in not calling Bateman. Not sure how Antony Green has called that one
Thanks for the usual excellent coverage, William.
I have to say I’m genuinely shock by the conservative bias of the ABC election coverage on Channel 24. Not pro-liberal in any obvious sense, but more fixated on the 6 seats the Libs and Nats have won and next to zero commentary on the 40+ seats the ALP have won. It’s truly bizarre.
mj says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:00 am
Why?
Whatever happened to conceding defeat? This is all over bar the reviews.
Night all.
FUBAR,
“In the seat I am in my vote makes zero difference in the LA”.
Every vote makes a difference. Just ask the Libs who lost Nedlands and South Perth in 2021.
Super Troupersays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:02 am
Thanks for the usual excellent coverage, William.
I have to say I’m genuinely shock but the conservative bias of the ANC election coverage on Channel 24. Not pro-liberal in any other bvious sense, but more fixated on the 6 seats the Libs and Nats have won and next to zero commentary on the 40+ seats the ALP have won. It’s truly bizarre
———–
It’s been like this for years and not just the ABC but others just talk about a few seats.
TPPs have dropped in Churchlands for the booths that have been counted
FUBARsays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:02 am
mj says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:00 am
Why?
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Because he’s a disingenuous prick who’s record as lord mayor gives no signs he would be any good as an MP. It’s quite incredible he’s behind in Churchlands.
CHURCHLANDS Labor ahead on ABC computer????? With a swing to them? Surely this is a tabulation error.
abc calling churchlands for baz
Daniel, that’s the TPPS that have dropped.
Biggest Labor TPP win in any jurisdiction – WA 2021 (69.70%)
?Second biggest – Federal 1943 (58.20%), ?Third biggest – Federal 1929 (56.7%)
This is on track to be one of the biggest Labor win in Australian history on TPP.
Looks likely to be bigger than WA 2017 (55.5%)
mj says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:07 am
Doesn’t look like everyone agrees with you.
Super Trouper,
They’ve got a few hours to fill, so they concentrate on a few interesting contests to get through the time. It’d be different if the overall result were a bit less one-sided.
My sister was working at a polling place today; her information was that the WAEC had struggled to attract adequate numbers of staff. Presumably the slow count is the result. Perhaps others may know more, but several (four?) electorates went without an EVC. Not good!
FUBAR, mj is correct about Baz. He is an insufferable wanker who has not shone with glory as mayor.
Why are the Midland & Murray-Wellington booths not reporting. Is no one counting there or is something going on?
FUBARsays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:11 am
mj says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:07 am
Doesn’t look like everyone agrees with you
—-
You’ll be better off without Baz
No Matter What Happens, You Claim Victory and Never Admit Defeat
Disaster tonight obviously.
Stokes man may not get up either.
Need to sack campaign director.
Geez could be five terms.
Roger Miller says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:13 am
He won two elections to be Lord Mayor and has now won the seat of Churchlands back for the Liberals.
Not a bad record for someone who you claim is so terrible.
Damn cook cut off the concession speech, ice cold
That’s a bit rude of the WA Premier to not wait until the opposition leader had finished.
Were’nt the libs supposed to win back seats tonight?
Looks like the last election.
ABC camera wilin
What a rude prick Cook is. Can’t he wait a couple of minutes
FUBAR, Perth city council constituents are not your average West Australians. Hasn’t won Churchlands yet.
FUBAR,
He hasn’t won Churchlands yet.
Bloody hell, Warren-Blackwood is the new Prahran. Damn near a tie for both 3cp (Nat/Lib) and then the final 2cp (Nat/ALP).
Roger Cook is underwhelming tbh.