Click here for full display of Western Australian state election results.
Live commentary
9.43pm. Early days in a very slow count, but the disendorsed Liberal candidate is looking competitive in Kimberley (part of a pattern of big swings against Labor in regional areas).
9.40pm. More TCP counts now unlocked, as far down the alphabet as Scarborough.
9.12pm. A lot of seats (though not all) between A and K have had their TCP numbers unlocked.
9.02pm. The WAEC has unleashed its first two-candidate preferred numbers, for the exquisitely uninteresting seat of Armadale. A good occasion to remind you all that my projections are based entirely on my pre-determined estimates of how preferences would flow.
8.30pm. Something else I’ll stick my nose in about: amid a result that’s surprising on the up side for Labor (or do I mean on the down side for Liberal), do keep in mind that we will see a flood of early votes coming in from around 10pm. When this happened in New South Wales, Labor lost the majority that everyone was projecting early in the evening. And another thing: if you’re enjoying my live results (or anything else here), please consider a donation through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.
7.51pm. Something I’ll stick my nose in about: there is a result in Fremantle for the Fremantle Early Polling Place which is fairly spectacular for independent Kate Hulett. But over 9000 votes were cast at that booth, and there’s only 635 of them here. So I imagine what we’re seeing here is election day results, to which the much larger amount of early votes will be added later. But the swing is based off a historic result that makes no distinction between them. Still, it’s obviously interesting that there’s a booth where Hulett is on 38.2%.
6.36pm. In short, mobile polling booths — aged care facilities and such — are reporting their results.
6.28pm. My system has successfully processed the first result – mobile voting from Scarborough – which is always a relief.
6pm. Polls have closed. I’m not going to be providing running commentary on the results, but I may pop in from time to time to explain technical details of what’s going on with the results.
Preview
This post will be used to provide a discussion forum for today’s Western Australian election, and as a launching pad for the live results feature linked to above. It will be the first workout of my new three-candidate model for projecting results at a general election, which received some useful stress testing at last month’s state by-elections in Victoria. My back-room involvement with Nine’s television coverage means I’m unlikely to have much to offer in the way of supplementary commentary this evening, but hopefully my results projections will speak for themselves. I had some further thoughts on the matter in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday. Yesterday’s post reported on the only public polling to have emerged since the start of the campaign – today’s newspaper’s offer little in the way of further intelligence on what might be expected this evening, although Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports a view in both camps that the polls’ implication of around 11 seats for the Liberals and Nationals combined is “at the lower end of potential losses for Labor”.
The Western Australian Electoral Commission acknowledges a likely feature of tonight’s counting that has become familiar to election watchers across the land: a lull in proceedings between 8pm, by which time most of the election day booths have reported their results, and at least 10pm, which is at long as it takes for most of the early polling places to process their many thousands of votes. The WAEC relates that 557,693 out of 1,868,946 enrolled voters have cast votes at early polling places, which I actually make to be down a little on 2021. There is no data that I’m aware of on postal votes — those that have been received will also be counted this evening. Only first preference above-the-line votes will be counted for the Legislative Council, the process for which will drag out until at least the end of the month.
Some other peculiarities of tonight’s proceedings are worth noting. This is the first Western Australian election at which early votes are ordinary rather than declaration votes, meaning the results category of “Early Votes (in Person)” has been abolished. The early polling place locations around the state will all be open today as well, and the results reported for them will include both the early and election day votes. Early votes cast out of district are now classified as absent votes, which are still declaration votes and will thus not be counted this evening. This is particularly significant in the case of Kalamunda, Forrestfield, Butler and Baldivis, which do not have a dedicated early polling place. Voters in these seats will doubtless have cast absent votes in neighbouring electorates in very large numbers, none of which will be counted this evening. All of which has made life complicated for those of us who create historic datasets allowing for swing calculations and booth-matched projections of the results.
Another unusual feature of the WAEC’s procedures is that the notional two-candidate preferred counts are kept under wraps until the commission is satisfied it has picked the right candidates, which seemed to start happening on a large scale at around 7:30pm in 2021. This means that the various media outlets’ results projections, including my own, will be based on speculative preference estimates for much of the night. My system is geared to be rather conservative when when going off preference estimates, and I’m guessing it will lag behind other media outlets in calling results.
Fremantle will be in danger Greens doing well generally tonight.
Cos salad on the money.
Looks like peak Basil may be molehill.
Scarborough was always a Liberal seat when I was in WA.
I imagine it had different boundaries then – there are some (I would imagine from having lived there) very Labor pockets just over the recent boundaries.
God, I hope Rebecca Stephens comes back in Albany, because Brough is a very scary guy.
When the trailing team starts talking about waiting for pre-polls as Liberal Steve Thomas just did on ABC you know they are stuffed
Geraldton: Libs projected fourth, behind Nat, ALP and Shane van Steyn.
Western suburbs: Cottesloe is close, the other two not – de Vries <10% in Nedlands.
McLennan also <10% in Bassendean.
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 10:47 pm
From my time in Perth I remember that Scarborough wasn’t a natural Liberal seat. It had various different areas, from down at heel to classier streets. Maybe it’s changed since then (Carmen Lawrence’s time as Premier).
——
It’s changed alot when I was growing up in the 90’s it was a working class area in the last 20 years it’s become rapidly an extension of the western suburbs and much more affluent but these seats also no longer identify with an increasingly socially regressive Liberal party.
Take outs:
Could be 2 terms for the Libs to come back – Huge task to win 20 seats and a 10% swing in the next election
Cottlesloe, Nedlands , Churchlands back to the Libs. Suggests Chaney will be line ball in the Federal.
Reflects how massive and devastating the result was last time – such a long way back.
On Sky News website it says they called Labor win at 1045pm Eastern time.
Has Antony called it yet?
Rebecca
Churchlands prediction might be the booths that have been counted (include me in West Leederville) against those that haven’t including all up the coast.
It is hard to get a full front bench when you don’t have a dozen MPs – the upper house will fill things up a bit but there is 17 ministers in the current government. Plus you probably want a deputy speaker etc.
That first booth or so for Fremantle is pretty bizarre. I didn’t have teal Hulett seriously threatening McGurk on the cards for tonight.
Carine back to the Liberal Party. In the non-surprise of the night.
Freo: Kate Hulett WAY out in front on the first booth. 30% swing against Labor! Naturally this has wrecked William’s projection.
How the hell are Labor winning Bateman?
Scarborough might have shifted inland because there might have been a seat of Innaloo.
mj @ #105 Saturday, March 8th, 2025 – 10:51 pm
Yes, Kos Samaras said that Millennials are the key voting bloc in the election and they aren’t necessarily voting Liberal, no matter where they live. A lot of it looks to be going to The Greens if they’re not voting for Labor.
The independent runs in the overlapping seats of Curtin were not as prominent as Chaney federally so not much to read into other than to say the return to Liberals in the overlapping state seats is extremely lukewarm suggesting she will probably retain it.
The apparent small swing in Churchlands is an interesting little thread in tonight’s tapestry… and waiting for a few more votes from Fremantle to see what’s happening there!
Who is Kate Hulett?
Surprisingly Bateman and South Perth are ALP retain. However I don’t think Labor should celebrate just yet, I still think pre-polls might have the possibility of narrowing the race.
Teal is doing better in Fremantle than I expected, but then there’s barely any indicators for me to see whether a Teal will gain a seat.
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:05 pm
Who is Kate Hulett?
She sounds like an independent green.
https://www.kateforfremantle.com/
Tony Barry doesn’t think that there’s much to trouble Kate Chaney in these results.
Should someone tell FUBAR?
Pilbara absolutely lineball, Libs well ahead of Nats.
Kalgoorlie’s another fine mess, with O’Donnell a bit above 10%, Lib and Nat a bit below 20%. With Labor in the low 30’s they’ve probably lost, but who to?
12% for Legalise Cannabis off the first booth in Butler. Donkey vote, but still good.
Lars will be happy that Teals are leading in Fremantle and Cottesloe.
One (Cottesloe) is Liberals seat and another (Fremantle) is Labor seat
It appears there is very little swing in Rich people seats to Liberals and big swing to Liberals in mortgage belt seats
As per Andrew Clennel on Sky, Federal Liberals are very excited with WA election results.
So far Labor and Liberal primaries tonight (42.2% and 27.6%) are almost identical to 2017 (42.2% and 31.2%). It’s like no paint has come off WA Labor in the last seven years. That’s pretty rare in politics anywhere in the world I reckon!
Sky News Annalist talking inane nonsense based on a few percent of the vote. Will be disappointed as further votes come in.
What upswing? There are very few under 40’s considering voting Liberal.
LukeM
unsurprising given the poo quality of liberal candidates
Godspeed to the Clan
mj @ #119 Saturday, March 8th, 2025 – 11:08 pm
Thanks. 🙂
The teal vote in Freo seems to be coming entirely from former Labor and Greens voters. Lib primary hasn’t budged.
Liberal preferences may decide this seat and where they flow WILL be interesting.
Steve Thomas is an idiot.
From the ABC panelist
“I think the Liberal Party has swung too far to the left” ROTFL 😀
mjsays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:16 pm
What upswing? There are very few under 40’s considering voting Liberal
———
That can change as seen in Victoria where labor has lost support but a liberal leader will have to invite the teals into their party room because that’s what the real liberal heartland is telling them.
Saffioti vs Thomas is just her shooting fish in a barrel.
I’m in Anchorage and got up to watch ABC election coverage. It’s like 3:20am.
Tis all over. Libby is done.
As I always say, I’m politically homeless but Liebor having such a huge majority is not healthy.
I do t think COALition is worthy but fark this, going back to bed.
I have major (!!) drilling contracts to negotiate Monday. I’ll be back in town next week.
Peace and love to all. Thankfully we have solid elections.
Socrates says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:20 pm
From the ABC panelist
“I think the Liberal Party has swung too far to the left” ROTFL
____________________
was having a laugh at that too – we just need to be more conservative and shift further right
Dr Fumbles
In the view of the WA Liberals, its the voters who are wrong.
This is great news for Federal Labor WA seats. And talk of Kate Cheney getting turfed looks rubbish.
Also, once again, that free/cheap public transport policy in outer suburbs is doing no harm to Labor.
Cottesloe was going to be be close when they are picking a Property Council member as their candidate in the most anti-development seat in the state.
I’m still baffled by Fremantle.
I didn’t think a teal running in left-wing Fremantle would be competitive, but the ABC has her just crushing McGurk. I’d have expected McGurk to do fairly well off Green preferences at least.
Has McGurk been pissing people off in a way I hadn’t noticed?
This would have to be at the very high end of Labor’s expectations.
The cherry on top would be if the independent took Cottesloe off of the Libs, and Basil failed to win!
Does anyone know which seats the new rail line (NE, Swan River Valley) goes through? How did Labor go in those seats?
(Personal bias, I did some planning work on that project years ago.)
Socrates
Morley, West Swan, Swan Hills maybe.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 11:22 pm
That can change as seen in Victoria where labor has lost support but a liberal leader will have to invite the teals into their party room because that’s what the real liberal heartland is telling them
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I don’t think it’ll change in WA if the govt continue what they’re doing. They’re seen as far superior to the opposition regardless of any imperfections.
Th rail line goes through Morley, West Swan, Darling Range, Bassendean.
Sky News now predicts Labor WIN!
After all the earlier talk.
Re Dr Fumbles @11:22 (AEDT) ”…was having a laugh at that too – we just need to be more conservative and shift further right”
That’s been the standard Liberal reaction to any electoral setback for quite a while now.
Rewi
Thanks.
I’m very glad that project went ahead. There was a strong justification for it with a growing population in the area. I wish more state governments would do more to extend public transport into outer suburbs. It can save households a lot of money.
The ABC projection for Fremantle is based on an estimate of preferences. No actual preferences are available yet.
Although Greens voters have a habit of putting Liberal and Labor last and second last, so it’s probably not too far off the mark.
I’m born and bread Freo. And it was always going to be the first WA city seat going independent. We’re different here, similar to teal seats in QLD and NSW at the federal level. I read this as bad news for Dutton at the coming election. He won’t be re gaining teal seats, and likely to lose more.
And I spend more time than I like in federal ministers offices…
Saffioti suggesting that the Greens weren’t running seriously in Fremantle/that Greens voters were genuinely supporting Hulett is interesting, if something I wouldn’t have expected.