Click here for full display of Western Australian state election results.
Live commentary
9.43pm. Early days in a very slow count, but the disendorsed Liberal candidate is looking competitive in Kimberley (part of a pattern of big swings against Labor in regional areas).
9.40pm. More TCP counts now unlocked, as far down the alphabet as Scarborough.
9.12pm. A lot of seats (though not all) between A and K have had their TCP numbers unlocked.
9.02pm. The WAEC has unleashed its first two-candidate preferred numbers, for the exquisitely uninteresting seat of Armadale. A good occasion to remind you all that my projections are based entirely on my pre-determined estimates of how preferences would flow.
8.30pm. Something else I’ll stick my nose in about: amid a result that’s surprising on the up side for Labor (or do I mean on the down side for Liberal), do keep in mind that we will see a flood of early votes coming in from around 10pm. When this happened in New South Wales, Labor lost the majority that everyone was projecting early in the evening. And another thing: if you’re enjoying my live results (or anything else here), please consider a donation through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.
7.51pm. Something I’ll stick my nose in about: there is a result in Fremantle for the Fremantle Early Polling Place which is fairly spectacular for independent Kate Hulett. But over 9000 votes were cast at that booth, and there’s only 635 of them here. So I imagine what we’re seeing here is election day results, to which the much larger amount of early votes will be added later. But the swing is based off a historic result that makes no distinction between them. Still, it’s obviously interesting that there’s a booth where Hulett is on 38.2%.
6.36pm. In short, mobile polling booths — aged care facilities and such — are reporting their results.
6.28pm. My system has successfully processed the first result – mobile voting from Scarborough – which is always a relief.
6pm. Polls have closed. I’m not going to be providing running commentary on the results, but I may pop in from time to time to explain technical details of what’s going on with the results.
Preview
This post will be used to provide a discussion forum for today’s Western Australian election, and as a launching pad for the live results feature linked to above. It will be the first workout of my new three-candidate model for projecting results at a general election, which received some useful stress testing at last month’s state by-elections in Victoria. My back-room involvement with Nine’s television coverage means I’m unlikely to have much to offer in the way of supplementary commentary this evening, but hopefully my results projections will speak for themselves. I had some further thoughts on the matter in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday. Yesterday’s post reported on the only public polling to have emerged since the start of the campaign – today’s newspaper’s offer little in the way of further intelligence on what might be expected this evening, although Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports a view in both camps that the polls’ implication of around 11 seats for the Liberals and Nationals combined is “at the lower end of potential losses for Labor”.
The Western Australian Electoral Commission acknowledges a likely feature of tonight’s counting that has become familiar to election watchers across the land: a lull in proceedings between 8pm, by which time most of the election day booths have reported their results, and at least 10pm, which is at long as it takes for most of the early polling places to process their many thousands of votes. The WAEC relates that 557,693 out of 1,868,946 enrolled voters have cast votes at early polling places, which I actually make to be down a little on 2021. There is no data that I’m aware of on postal votes — those that have been received will also be counted this evening. Only first preference above-the-line votes will be counted for the Legislative Council, the process for which will drag out until at least the end of the month.
Some other peculiarities of tonight’s proceedings are worth noting. This is the first Western Australian election at which early votes are ordinary rather than declaration votes, meaning the results category of “Early Votes (in Person)” has been abolished. The early polling place locations around the state will all be open today as well, and the results reported for them will include both the early and election day votes. Early votes cast out of district are now classified as absent votes, which are still declaration votes and will thus not be counted this evening. This is particularly significant in the case of Kalamunda, Forrestfield, Butler and Baldivis, which do not have a dedicated early polling place. Voters in these seats will doubtless have cast absent votes in neighbouring electorates in very large numbers, none of which will be counted this evening. All of which has made life complicated for those of us who create historic datasets allowing for swing calculations and booth-matched projections of the results.
Another unusual feature of the WAEC’s procedures is that the notional two-candidate preferred counts are kept under wraps until the commission is satisfied it has picked the right candidates, which seemed to start happening on a large scale at around 7:30pm in 2021. This means that the various media outlets’ results projections, including my own, will be based on speculative preference estimates for much of the night. My system is geared to be rather conservative when when going off preference estimates, and I’m guessing it will lag behind other media outlets in calling results.
Anything less than combined 15 seats (10lib/5nats) a disappointing night? Or should the opposition parties aim slightly higher as a par result?
I’ll have some live comments here for a few hours
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/03/western-australia-2025-live.html
Zempilas is coming across as a bit delusional here.
Still crossing my fingers Tonkin or Thornton get up in Churchlands.
Get out of it!
No one could be that stupid or have a lack of history.
Also there is the way you say it, more than exemplified by the one who said it, one Winston Turnbull esquire, in his self entitled tone of speaking.
Here it is for those that aren’t aware of it:
“When Sir Winton Turnbull [who represented a large rural seat], a slow and sometimes stumbling speaker, was raving and ranting on the adjournment and shouted: “I am a Country member.” I interjected “I remember.” Sir Winton could not understand why, for the first time in all the years he had been speaking in the House, there was instant and loud applause from both sides.
Gough Whitlam”
There’s something off with Basil, even if he wins Churchlands doubt he’ll romp it home.
The ABC have Fatima’s sister doing the board!
Rita went beserk when Basil was mentioned.Cos salad on panel!
Libs should pick up Churchlands and Nedlands at least. Maybe Dawesville.
I’d forgotten that Thomas was even still an MP. You’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel to be dragging him out for election night.
@pied – creep.
I tip Labor to lose 14 seats – Albany, Bateman, Carine, Churchlands, Darling Range, Dawesville, Geraldton, Kalamunda, Murray-Wellington, Nedlands, Riverton, Scarborough, South Perth, and Warren-Blackwood. But these losses won’t cost Labor the election.
Don’t normally see these WA presenters very often, outside the Christmas New Year period. Who is who?
No votes yet for Stop Pedophiles in WA?
Is it more of a NAMBLA attitude in the West?
Do they spell it differently in WA?
Huge – I was also told to “just number one above the line” (which I agree, will cause many preferences to exhaust) or, in the alternative, to “number every box below the line” (which is not necessary, requirement is 20 below the line – and which I would think this instruction would further discourage any BTL voting)
The reference on the ABC coverage to a shortage of AEC staff and voting slips in some polling stations is not good. Lets hope that is fixed by May.
Socrates – I think you mean WAEC staff…. There is a different body who run the elections at state and federal level.
LVT,
With 0.01% of the LC vote counted, Stop Pedophiles! Protect kiddies! (AKA DLP) has 1 vote.
Socrates
I usually vote mid afternoon at my local school and walk straight in.
I had to queue this afternoon.
My memory is that there have been more issuing points in past years than there were today.
The staffing for a federal election is of course run by different people.
Noel Crichton-Browne. Now there’s a blast from the past!
Less prepoll this year so more on the day.
Sausages ran out by lunchtime pathetic really. No wonder Rita’s Grumpy!
Willam – What hit the model? It is showing a 15% swing to Labor at the moment? I suspect it is a rough new booth or something?
EDIT – Now it is completely broken as Labor is exceeding 100%…
Looking like Labor will probably do better than even the polls were suggesting.
B. S. Fairman says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 10:15 pm
“Willam – What hit the model? It is showing a 15% swing to Labor at the moment? I suspect it is a rough new booth or something?”
Now a strange 38%+ swing to Labor on the model??
Seems to be back to normal now.
BSF: Looks fine from my end. Projected ALP 2pp 59.6%.
Yes, it seems to be back to functioning properly. Hopefully I wasn’t the only one it did that to however or else the mushrooms in my pasta tonight were the wrong type.
13 votes for Stop Pedophiles. Looks like the swing is on.
Libs are only ahead in 4 seats.
Aussie Trump in the upper house needs 3% to make his name change worth it.
57 votes now for Stop Pedophiles. Does that mean the other 2m voters don’t want to stop them?
ABC predicts Scarborough Labor retain.
Beat me to it libs in trouble if they cannot win Scarborough.Shite!
Whoa, swing TO Labor in Warren-Blackwood?
Dig into that, the Nats are projected fourth (with two booths in, both from Manjimup). The system seems to think they’ll jump the Greens on One Nation / Shooters prefs, and somehow this ends up as a bigger Labor margin (vs Lib) than 2021 (vs Nat). If that holds, Jane Kelsbie will have done something incredible.
I just want to find 11,780 votes in Churchlands
Antony Green has called it for Labor.
Unsurprisingly I guess.
10:03pm ACST Antony Green calls no indication on these figures of a change in government. A 6% swing to Liberals in Perth will fall well short of the 2017 result which was a clear Labor win 🙂
As per ABCLabor on track for re-election in WA
”
Rebeccasays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 9:29 pm
Zempilas is coming across as a bit delusional here.
Still crossing my fingers Tonkin or Thornton get up in Churchlands.
”
Rebecca
From which seat is Zempilas is contesting?
Bird of paradoxsays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 10:31 pm
Whoa, swing TO Labor in Warren-Blackwood?
—-
Wonder if there is an increasing “tree change” demographic down there?
And we cross now to Peta Credlin for a sour faced look.
Another election and still no evidence of the liberals getting a new blue collar heartland.
Zempilas is contesting Churchlands.
ABC computer is calling South Perth for Labor. Zempilas neck and neck with Labor in Churchlands.
C@t
I’ve read that the Liberal candidate in Scarborough was a star and foreman material. It’s a blow if they can’t get him up.
Lars, there is no evidence that any other party are for pedophiles, so anyone who wanted to stop pedophiles could happily vote for any other party.
Did they run last time as Labour DLP?
Ain’t no way Bateman being called for ALP….
South Perth, Bateman and Mount Lawley to Labor.
Roger – Apparently, they were. But they weren’t allowed to run with Labour in their name and they have been disowned by the national DLP anyway for being too nutty.
If we looking for federal implications Bateman is in Tangney.
Holy hell. Bateman, Scarborough and South Perth all basically called for Labor is phenomenal.
I’m confused by the ABC projection in Churchlands – with Zempilas only narrowly ahead of Tonkin on primaries, the teal on over 15% and the Greens on over 10%, how does Zempilas not get absolutely run down on preferences? I find it hard to believe a majority of the teal’s preferences would be flowing to Zempilas given who he is.
Rossmcg @ #90 Saturday, March 8th, 2025 – 10:39 pm
From my time in Perth I remember that Scarborough wasn’t a natural Liberal seat. It had various different areas, from down at heel to classier streets. Maybe it’s changed since then (Carmen Lawrence’s time as Premier).
This is shaping up to be a bad night for conservatives, failing to meet very low expectations. It seems early to say it, but the seats that are being called point to it.
The Liberals don’t have heartland territory in Perth anymore.