Click here for full display of Western Australian state election results.
Live commentary
9.43pm. Early days in a very slow count, but the disendorsed Liberal candidate is looking competitive in Kimberley (part of a pattern of big swings against Labor in regional areas).
9.40pm. More TCP counts now unlocked, as far down the alphabet as Scarborough.
9.12pm. A lot of seats (though not all) between A and K have had their TCP numbers unlocked.
9.02pm. The WAEC has unleashed its first two-candidate preferred numbers, for the exquisitely uninteresting seat of Armadale. A good occasion to remind you all that my projections are based entirely on my pre-determined estimates of how preferences would flow.
8.30pm. Something else I’ll stick my nose in about: amid a result that’s surprising on the up side for Labor (or do I mean on the down side for Liberal), do keep in mind that we will see a flood of early votes coming in from around 10pm. When this happened in New South Wales, Labor lost the majority that everyone was projecting early in the evening. And another thing: if you’re enjoying my live results (or anything else here), please consider a donation through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.
7.51pm. Something I’ll stick my nose in about: there is a result in Fremantle for the Fremantle Early Polling Place which is fairly spectacular for independent Kate Hulett. But over 9000 votes were cast at that booth, and there’s only 635 of them here. So I imagine what we’re seeing here is election day results, to which the much larger amount of early votes will be added later. But the swing is based off a historic result that makes no distinction between them. Still, it’s obviously interesting that there’s a booth where Hulett is on 38.2%.
6.36pm. In short, mobile polling booths — aged care facilities and such — are reporting their results.
6.28pm. My system has successfully processed the first result – mobile voting from Scarborough – which is always a relief.
6pm. Polls have closed. I’m not going to be providing running commentary on the results, but I may pop in from time to time to explain technical details of what’s going on with the results.
Preview
This post will be used to provide a discussion forum for today’s Western Australian election, and as a launching pad for the live results feature linked to above. It will be the first workout of my new three-candidate model for projecting results at a general election, which received some useful stress testing at last month’s state by-elections in Victoria. My back-room involvement with Nine’s television coverage means I’m unlikely to have much to offer in the way of supplementary commentary this evening, but hopefully my results projections will speak for themselves. I had some further thoughts on the matter in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday. Yesterday’s post reported on the only public polling to have emerged since the start of the campaign – today’s newspaper’s offer little in the way of further intelligence on what might be expected this evening, although Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports a view in both camps that the polls’ implication of around 11 seats for the Liberals and Nationals combined is “at the lower end of potential losses for Labor”.
The Western Australian Electoral Commission acknowledges a likely feature of tonight’s counting that has become familiar to election watchers across the land: a lull in proceedings between 8pm, by which time most of the election day booths have reported their results, and at least 10pm, which is at long as it takes for most of the early polling places to process their many thousands of votes. The WAEC relates that 557,693 out of 1,868,946 enrolled voters have cast votes at early polling places, which I actually make to be down a little on 2021. There is no data that I’m aware of on postal votes — those that have been received will also be counted this evening. Only first preference above-the-line votes will be counted for the Legislative Council, the process for which will drag out until at least the end of the month.
Some other peculiarities of tonight’s proceedings are worth noting. This is the first Western Australian election at which early votes are ordinary rather than declaration votes, meaning the results category of “Early Votes (in Person)” has been abolished. The early polling place locations around the state will all be open today as well, and the results reported for them will include both the early and election day votes. Early votes cast out of district are now classified as absent votes, which are still declaration votes and will thus not be counted this evening. This is particularly significant in the case of Kalamunda, Forrestfield, Butler and Baldivis, which do not have a dedicated early polling place. Voters in these seats will doubtless have cast absent votes in neighbouring electorates in very large numbers, none of which will be counted this evening. All of which has made life complicated for those of us who create historic datasets allowing for swing calculations and booth-matched projections of the results.
Another unusual feature of the WAEC’s procedures is that the notional two-candidate preferred counts are kept under wraps until the commission is satisfied it has picked the right candidates, which seemed to start happening on a large scale at around 7:30pm in 2021. This means that the various media outlets’ results projections, including my own, will be based on speculative preference estimates for much of the night. My system is geared to be rather conservative when when going off preference estimates, and I’m guessing it will lag behind other media outlets in calling results.
“Western Australia has voted for a future that is made in WA.”
Is he serious? Is anything made in WA? I thought they just dug stuff out of the ground and sold it to the Chinese (who then make things out of it).
Plenty of good wine made in WA.
DB Cooper says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:21 am
How much would you like to wager?
$500
The Unions price is out of manufacturing globally competitive products, so outside of government contracts there’s not much of significance manufactured here in WA. So, is Cook going to smash the Unions?
The copium is strong tonight.
FUBAR,
Sure. I’ll wager $500 that he hasn’t won it yet.
Fairly odd comment first up from Mettam.
Sandra Brewer has been barely elected in their safest seat. It’s a terrible result for the Liberal party.
Yeah the trains built in Perth well partly in WA had to be pulled from the tracks yesterday.
Rita is giving it to Speers!
Panel a rolled gold disaster!
Basil has a new job.
LFG BASIL
The ABC has Labor ahead now in Nedlands, this is a pretty dreadful result overall for the Liberals.
Postals might get Basil home in Churchlands, but if this was his audition for Liberal leadership, it is a fizzer.
DB Cooper says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:33 am
Not yet.
Win or loss. Final result.
Just looking at William’s map for my seat of South Perth and it appears there’s a clear divide either side of Canning Highway.
I’ve been living in this seat since 1997 and been voting since 1983. Geoff Baker is the first MP I have ever had contact me (I assume he got my number when I collected some free COVID test kits from his electorate office). If he retains what would normally be a blue ribbon seat that community engagement will be part of the reason why.
I also spoke to the federal member for Swan when she came door knocking last week.
“Basil has a new job.”
so, will a bloke on a 4% margin be a viable leadership prospect against a woman on a 22% margin??? 🙂
Baz hasn’t got a new job yet. Only half counted. Still too close to call.
imacca says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:44 am
Since when has seat margin been the deciding factor for a Parliamentary party in selecting their leader?
imaccasays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:44 am
“Basil has a new job.”
so, will a bloke on a 4% margin be a viable leadership prospect against a woman on a 22% margin???
No worse than Peter Dutton
Labor won’t mind Baz in parliament he’ll do them many favours.
“Roger Cook is underwhelming tbh.”
Election results say otherwise, no wonder Albo wanted to go this weekend.
bc says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:42 am
It was independent for quite some time.
I’ve known Geoff since 1984. Really nice guy. Good local rep.
Early Vote Figures Good for LNP so seat total will go up. Nedlands and Churchlands safe holds thanks to Early Vote.
43 lab 5 lib 4 Nat with 7 in doubt.
Abc .Panel on the piss?
There’s a great campaign slogan:
“Basil Zempilas – No worse than Peter Dutton”.
Democracy Sausage says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:39 am
Chuchlands has a long history of having an Independent member so it is hardly surprising that a well funded independent candidate provides solid opposition.
:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:51 am
“Roger Cook is underwhelming tbh.”
Election results say otherwise, no wonder Albo wanted to go this weekend.
—–
Cook has zero charisma but they do a fairly good job in governing. Albo definitely would have called an election without Alfred.
Are they all dead in Murray Wellington.
michael says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 12:57 am
WAEC appears to have had some major problems.
Would have preferred a better showing but given the low base it has been a huge improvement.
The Libs and NP have a functional base to operate as an effective Opposition and build for 2029.
Hugely positive for Federal LNP going into the Federal election. Couldn’t be happier with the massive swings in ALP held federal seats.
In the inner city seats swings away from Labor have gone to the Greens rather than Liberals.
Mr Tendulkar, you must be very disappointed that your average is little more than half of Bradman’s.
It was interesting comparing Williams results against the TV ones.
Speaking to a neighbour who has worked for the AEC/WAEC for years is that he only got contacted on Thursday to work today. Apparently the WAEC outsourced the recruitment and they stuffed it up. Might explain the slow count etc.
Albany is listed as ALP ahead 1.1% vs Nat, if that turns out to be the top two. If it end up as ALP/Lib, Nat preferences leak more, so that’d be good news for Labor. There’s an independent who got 8%, so his prefs will matter.
Kimberley’s weird. For ages the only booth in was one of the Broome ones (Greens second), now Kununura (Spackman’s home town) is in and he’s looking competitive. Oh, and now Wyndham and Fitzroy Crossing are in and he’s in single figures. The Nat won Halls Creek (she’s from there). Assuming the rest of the Broome booths go Green/Labor, this is a Labor retain.
mjsays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 1:05 am
In the inner city seats swings away from Labor have gone to the Greens rather than Liberals.
=================================================================
Shush
Don’t tell FUBAR that, his night is gone!
Been There says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 1:15 am
You don’t think I can read results or posts?
FUBAR
It’s not the reading, it’s the interpretation.
That’s the essence!
FUBARsays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 1:19 am
Been There says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 1:15 am
RwYou don’t think I can read results or posts?
—–‐
Few like your mob it’s obvious
Churchlands has gone back to an ALP retain on th3 ABC.
Surely an error, but still a damning indictment of the Liberals that this seat cant be reliably called for tjem nearlly four hours after polls closed.
Talk of Bas being opposition leader may be a bit premature. They still need to win more seats than the Nats. This is a terrible result for the Libs, I thought they’d get near 15 seats. The Clan has destroyed them from within. Libby’s biggest mistake – letting them back in.
Fubar are you insane if this is a positive for the liberals e in wested Australia holy crap also stay the state elections don’t determine federal elections because if it did Queensland would been a labour stronghold federally during Queensland lab is run in 2015 to 2024 kos says that the labour parties actually doing well federally in Western Australia
Evads yeah I don’t know what fubars celebrating I thought the liberals would be at least 20 seats like this is like what people thought the Queensland Labor was was going to get last year
Some Labor supporters can’t read results. The 2pp is way behind the primary figures in Churchlands. If Basil is losing when on a 46% primary.
ABC computer knows something PB’s doesn’t: Murray-Wellington is FINALLY coming in (15% counted), and it’s right down to the wire. Labor and Lib on about 34% each, with a long tail of others, mostly minor right.
Just slightly more than 1/4 WA voters are willing to cede their primary votes to the Reactionaries. This is an absolutely abysmal result for them. They might scrape together a win in Nedlands, though it’s not over yet. The results in Nedlands, Cottesloe and Churchlands must augur well for Chaney.
I venture to say that Labor will hold every metro seat they now have and will pose a threat to the Liberals in both Moore and Canning.
I worked today for Labor at a polling place at which the Liberals have historically done quite well. While the 2022 covid-swing was partly reversed today they nevertheless recorded one of their worst-ever 2PP results in this particular polling place – a place sitting in the affluent western slopes of the Darling Range.
Very clearly, the Liberal Party in WA remain completely unelectable. They are demonstrably out of touch with the electorate on climate change, the economy and the status/empowerment of women. I might also note that new-immigrant voters were particularly pleased to be greeted by Labor campaign workers. They very clearly sense the racism that pervades Liberal messaging/affiliation.
Labor should be very encouraged by this result. When the choices have to be made voters will not support the reactionaries….the reactionaries who have paired themselves with the detestable Trump. Bravo WA. Democratic rights, traditional values, decency in public life and a positive role for the state have prevailed here.
Does anyone know if there is going to be more counting ? It seems to have stopped in the last hour.
Seems a lot of seats have a lot more booths to count plus TPP is way behind.
Is counting going to continue Sunday ?
Bit disappointed in the result thought the LNP should of done better. Looks like the latest polls were right on the money on the result. Prepoll booths are looking better for LNP but overall they won back the country seats but could not cut the mustard in Perth.
I don’t understand why PB/ABC computer are estimating ALP ahead on 2PP in Nedlands currently. The primary vote now has 14 of 14 booths reporting and the Liberal is on 46.9%. For context Basil in Churchlands is on 46.0 and the ABC manually corrected it to show him ahead when it was showing Labor retaining. The spread of the primary vote is relatively similar in Nedlands and even slightly more favourable for the Liberals, so I am guessing that this is another artefact of wonky preference flows or partial 2PP counts and that it will be a Liberal retain of 52% or more when the numbers align.
Damo says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 2:18 am
The Liberals have been rewarded with the result they deserve….yet another thrashing. Voters just do not sense that the Liberals share their values and priorities.
Today was International Women’s Day. At the polling places where I helped more than just a few women made a point of taking a Labor card while declining a Liberal card. They know from decades of experience that the Liberal Party is hostile to women and to the causes that would advantage women.
Adda I have some money riding on both Churchlands and Nedlands. Thought it was easy money for backing the Libs, silly me. Yes the raw vote and TPP does not look right especially in Nedlands as all the booths have reported and it looks like the Libs should be in front on TPP by at least 2-3%. The prepoll booth was very strong for the Libs. Seems they have stopped the vote and will restart counting either Sunday or Monday ?