The Australian celebrates the issue of the writs for the March 8 Western Australian state election (which you can learn about in detail through the Poll Bludger election guide) with a fresh result from Newspoll. This suggests Labor is headed for what would normally be reckoned a handsome win, but with a swing at the high end of what polling over the last year or so has indicated.
Labor is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-party preferred, compared with the extraordinary 70-30 result in 2021, from primary votes of Labor 42% (59.9% in 2021), Liberal 32% (21.3%), Nationals 3% (4.0%), Greens 12% (6.9%) and One Nation 4% (1.3%). Roger Cook’s personal ratings, while no match for Mark McGowan’s, are very strong by normal standards, with approval at 55% and disapproval at 37%, while Liberal leader Libby Mettam records 39% approval and 41% disapproval. Cook leads Mettam 54-34 as preferred premier.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1039.
Go the Cookers! 😉
I noted, on your previous WA Poll article, a comment regarding the standing, by the Country Party, of candidates in semi-rural or urban seats around Perth.
Like many others, I don’t believe the Country Party are serious about winning these seats.
I believe that this is a strategy to harvest as many votes, as possible, for their Upper House candidates.
Now that the former gerrymander, for the Upper House, has been removed and like the Senate and most state Upper Houses the election is now based on a Statewide mandate the Country Party are attempting to maximise their votes for this chamber and preserve their representation, too.
I am surprised that the ALP, in Victoria, with their majority in both chambers hasn’t introduced a similar reform to their Upper House, too.
Be interesting to see what locations swing back to the libs May indicate fed election movement of votes from fed labor as well.
Southern suburbs of Perth has high growth population and infrastructure issues thanks to Albo and housing is the big failure for the state labor government along with the dud fed Labor government.
This poll seems about right – a comfortable win for Labor, but well down on the 2021 result. Assuming that’s how it plays out (and that further polls back up this prediction), it wouldn’t surprise me to see Albo call the Federal election for 5th April. This would need to be called on the weekend of 1-2 March, meaning that the WA election would be at the end of the first week. A comfortable Labor state win at that stage could only be helpful for the Federal cause, and a 5th April polling day would avoid the Victoria (already looking a bit shakey) mid-school holiday conundrum that a 12th April date might bring. (5th April would also suit me much better, as we are off overseas on 9th April!).
The above election timing comment is due to an interest rate cut that labor says is a certainty.
Shhh do not mention this!
Geez Reserve bank is supposed to be independent labor at least pretend!
Geez an unemployment figure in next two weeks that drives unemployment lower will have labor shiteing it’s pants that reserve will hold.
Roger Cook seems like a fairly solid sort of bloke who won’t frighten the horses, and he can go against Albanese when he needs to.
The WestAustralian (online – lead article) reports that (according to their article)…
‘West Australians — led by disillusioned women and younger voters — have delivered an emphatic message to Anthony Albanese, declaring that the Prime Minister is done.”
What, if anything, is this based on? Did someone do a federal poll in WA as well, or is it wishful thinking?
The poll asked if both the federal and state government “deserved another term” or if it was “time to give someone else a go”. The state government broke about even, but for the federal government it was 35% and 50%.
The feel so far in this campaign has been rather odd, though perhaps its just me because I’m in a very safe seat, and am in close proximity to another very safe seat.
The entire campaigin feels very low energy and listless, as if nobody’s heart is really in it. The Liberal campaign feels as if they’ve accepted the result is a foregone conclusion and their hearts are really not in it.
Grimace
We are still a month from the election. I feel Cook has been running hard, travelling all over the state and announcing stuff.
Wait till it gets serious!
I met mark mcgowan one hot day in February 2021 and he said he occasionally wondered who thought it was a good idea to have March elections.
The last few weeks in Perth have reinforced that view.
grimacesays:
Friday, February 7, 2025 at 2:08 pm
The entire campaigin feels very low energy and listless, as if nobody’s heart is really in it. The Liberal campaign feels as if they’ve accepted the result is a foregone conclusion and their hearts are really not in it.
The WA Libs are BIDEN their time until Basil’s in the driver’s seat….. 2029 will be a better contest. Presumably there may be a change in WA labor leadership before then, i don’t know that Cook quite has the media chops to go up against Mayor Zempilas… not sure anyone else really does and I certainly hope Amber-Jade Sanderson doesn’t get up. But Labor needs to start promising something a bit more exciting than ‘more ferries’ – surely something with a bit grander vision. light rail might be a popular one on the back of the Metronet expansion
In any case, yet to find out of DR JAGS of Riverton even lives in the electorate now. I’ll be surprised if he is returned, though his rival Cr Amanda Spencer-Teo couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery if her work on the Webb St Upgrades is anything to go by. She is at least a local i;ll give her that……
Apart from some doomsday TV ads on behalf of the Liberals, the campaign is barely noticeable.
Commonsense, if nothing else, suggests the Libs will pick up some seats – essentially because McGowan garnered Liberals last time around for shutting the State down but keep the jobs/money flowing in.
I admire Libby Mettam as it has been a tall order for here to carry out the role of opposition having to front an overwhelming government bench on one side, and the white-anting of her leadership by the right wing of the Liberal Party and the West newspaper dumping Basil Zempilas to do the owner’s bidding.
If the Libs do well, Mettam might just have enough support to hang on and good luck to her on this alone.
More likely she will be dumped in favour of Zempilas who comes across as a Nice Guy as Lord Mayor, but I doubt – as they used to say on Yes Minister – he has the “gravitas” to see out four years in opposition before he gets a chance to actually get voted in.
It will seem even longer to he and Stokes.
Thankyou, William.
That appears to be about the same as the 2017 election where Labor won with 55.5% 2PP. That would be a better benchmark than the 2021 election
JaylinWoodicsays:
Friday, February 7, 2025 at 2:39 pm
In any case, yet to find out of DR JAGS of Riverton even lives in the electorate now. I’ll be surprised if he is returned, though his rival Cr Amanda Spencer-Teo couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery if her work on the Webb St Upgrades is anything to go by. She is at least a local i;ll give her that……
~~~~~~~
Hi there, I used to live near the Riverton electorate (recently moved out unfortunately) and do know some people and events that have been going on there.
From what I’ve heard, Dr Jags does own a property in Riverton, but afaik idk whether he lives in the house. However, I can tell you that he’s been very active in the community, often appearing in community and school events, especially in the latter considering that he’s one of the figures who helped upgrade several high schools like Rossmoyne, Willeton and Lynwood. Reason I mention schools is that some of WA’s best public schools (Primary and High Schools) are located within the Riverton electorate, so a lot of people move into it’s suburbs just to be able to get their kids in these schools, so an upgrade to facilities there would definitely be appreciated.
A bit off topic but iirc, he’s also held events in cafes where people can come over and chat to him (iirc last time was at a cafe in Parkwood back in Dec.)
Personally I wouldn’t be surprised that Jags is returned as MLA for Riverton considering that I’ve heard he’s quite connected to and well liked by the Indian community in Riverton. I’m not sure how the other significant groups (Chinese and White Australians) view him tho, but Teo does seem to have a local advantage; even if she does seem to be a bit lowkey other than some signs at bus stops.
Tricot @ #12 Friday, February 7th, 2025 – 12:10 pm
Gut feel Zempilas will be a disaster for the WA Liberals. He’s a loose cannon with a long public history of saying and doing offensive things. Labor will have a field day, the attack ads write themselves.
The West is a shaddow if its former self, much closer to a newsletter than a newspaper these days, and its no sure thing it’ll still be around in 2029. I’m not sure how much influence they actually have.
If the WA Liberals are foolish enough to put Zempilas in charge, 2029 would be a status quo result for 2025 with Labor winning ~40 seats.
Such as?
Bludgeoned Westie
I’d venture there are more people of Indian descent living in Riverton than there were four years ago. Including my new neighbours.
From memory Dr Jags had a good team on the ground four years ago and I was door knocked once by a campaign worker and then by the man himself. They put in the yards.
One day A few weeks ago Amanda Spencer-Teo’s campaign car was parked on the verge in the park opposite my home and I wondered if she might be door knocking. No appearance.
Then the other day she must have got up early in the morning to grab the shopping centre parking spot directly outside Jags’ electorate office! Didn’t see if she was there to campaign. Hope she didn’t break the four-hour limit!
I see from William’s guide the redistribution has slightly strengthened Jags’ position.
I’m not sure that where the MP lives is much of factor any more. As long as there is a connection with the electorate which I understand Jags had through his work as GP.
As long as you don’t repeat the Keneally disaster.
William Bowe @ #17 Friday, February 7th, 2025 – 2:31 pm
The statement that immediately comes to mind is the one about the ABC reporter on her knees at the Christian Porter presser. And that’s without digging though his history as a shock jock.
Other Zempilas examples:
“I make no apologies for this, the homeless need to be moved out of the Hay and Murray Street malls and the surrounding areas, forcibly, if that’s what it takes. I’m sick of being told by people who don’t live and work in the city like I do that it’s not that bad — actually, it’s worse. The look, the smell, the language, the fights — it’s disgusting. A blight on our city.”
“If you’ve got a penis mate, you’re a bloke. If you’ve got a vagina, you’re a woman. Game over.”
Basil Zempilas: Some people wouldn’t sit on the floor.
Jenna Clarke: Sure.
Zempilas: I mean this, I’m being serious, no innuendo whatsoever, some people would not sit on the floor, I’ve seen you can be comfortable interviewing somebody on the ground that sort of thing, right?
Clarke: Yes, it was good to be in the view of the cameras.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/perth-mayor-basil-zempilas-defends-on-your-knees-comment-after-christian-porter-press-conference/news-story/79ce49a4f77eb2cacfaa4f52acd2caae
Upper house quotas on that polling: ALP 16, Lib 12, Green 4, One Nation 1, Nat 1. The last three seats would be a dice roll between Green #5, ON #2, and any other minor left (Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice) or minor right (Shooters, Christians) that can get about 2%.
The Shooters don’t seem to realise there’s an election on. Their website is horribly designed, and if they’ve even got candidates for this election they’ve hidden them well. They would’ve won a seat under the new system in 2017 (0.9 quotas), so it’s not like they’re some no-chance microparty.
Speaking of the upper house, Ben Dawkins (ex-ALP, ex-ON MP who ended up in parliament on a countback) has legally changed his name to Austin Trump (that’s “Aussie Trump” to his mates, who could probably fit in a phone booth). How the hell did he ever get to be a Labor candidate?
Speaking of which, Dawkins, Louise Kingston (ex-Nationals) and Sophia Moermond (ex-Legalise Cannabis) were all going to run on a single “Independents for WA” ticket. My sense was that none of them quite appreciated that everything depended on who got first position. In any case, I note that Moermond has dropped off their website, which promotes a distinctly Trumpian agenda.
https://independentsforwa.com/
Moermond turned out to be an anti-vaxxer (among other things), so she’ll be no great loss to parliament.
Some of those names are familiar. Andrew Middleton ran in Durack (fed 2022) for UAP, Mining and Pastoral (WA 2021) for No Mandatory Vaccination, and South Metro (WA 2017) for the Micro Business Party (they mutated into WAxit for 2021). Adrian McRae also ran in Durack in 2022 for the Great Australia Party (a splinter group started by some failed One Nation senator), and he’s that Port Hedland councillor who flew to Russia and supported Putin.
According to the list on Wikipedia, Aus Christians have 48 candidates so far in the lower house – not much less than the Libs (51) or Labor (55), and far ahead of anyone else. If they get a solid 2-3% in all those seats, with gusts of up to 7-8% in seats like Armadale, Gosnells and Baldivis, I’d be surprised if they didn’t get a spot in the upper house.
Dawkins/Trump and Moermond appear to have split the independents ticket. For anyone wishing to show a commitment to “a brighter tomorrow”:
https://www.voteindependentwa.com/
The two sites confused me — it’s Kingston who’s broken away from Dawkins/Moermond, not Moermond. In January, all three were on the Vote Independent WA site along with three other people:
https://web.archive.org/web/20250104223331/https://www.voteindependentwa.com/
That site now has only Dawkins and Moermond, with Kingston and two of the others now on the other site, which is the one with the Trumpian messaging.
https://independentsforwa.com/
The Vote Independent WA site only offers that independents are a good thing.
So… there’s the Trumpian “independents” (from an archipelago of micro-right parties off the coast of sanity), and then there’s the guy who literally changed his name to Trump. Gotcha.
Is Wilson Tucker running again?
Messrs Green and Raue both list Wilson Tucker as an independent candidate (the DSP having been deregistered back in 2023), although their basis for so doing is not clear.
Tucker’s own corner of the interwebs is silent on the subject. (Mind you, he appears to have been rather silent for some time now … busy with career planning, perhaps?)
He’s been listed on the Wikipedia page since last May, thanks to this unreferenced edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Candidates_of_the_2025_Western_Australian_state_election&diff=prev&oldid=1224293441
The ABC site has him (along with a bunch of others) in the slop bucket of “ungrouped”, which will get fixed after nominations close next week.
Basil Zempilas joins other notables such as Ben Roberts-Smith and Bruce Lehrmann who have received the wholehearted backing of Kerry Stokes.
One wonders what it can be that attracts Stokes to Zempilas, a “media personality” ironically bereft of personality, malleable and not exactly bright.
I cannot imagine Basil having much of a history of misdeeds and guess it can only be his perceived and potential power combined with his maleness.
If Basil is the future for the Libs, then they can look to more of the same.
Labor being reelected to govt in WA has always seemed very likely, the Libs would settle for numbers greater than a cricket team in the lower house after this election.
I see the local ABC has wheeled out former Premier, the Honourable Brian Burke to comment on the removal of the WA Upper House gerrymander. This slug should have no place in any political discourse and is best viewed by torchlight.
Shame on the ALP at the time for allowing his ascendency and shame on me for effectively voting for him. Shame on the ABC for once again giving him oxygen.
Speculation may now end! Wilson Tucker has “already returned to his tech roots”:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-news-live-cyclone-predicted-to-make-landfall-on-valentine-s-day-20250211-p5lbcw.html?post=p58735#p58735
Looks like the ALP could lose about 15 seats. 2 to the Nats and the rest to the Liberals . Leaving the coaltion at over 20 seats, but no chance of Government.
Still, lots of sandgropers might vote Liberal to keep Labor in check, despite their preference and produce an “overcorrection”. A Liberal government!