This fortnight’s Essential Research poll has Labor steady at 30%, the Coalition down one to 36%, the Greens steady at 12%, One Nation up one to 8%, and undecided down one to 4%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has the Coalition up a point to 49% and Labor steady on 47%, with undecided steady at 4%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1150.
Also featured is the Essential poll was an occasional suite of questions on leadership attributes, finding Anthony Albanese scoring low on positive qualities and high on negative ones, though respondents are less likely to view him as not handling pressure well than changing his opinion or being out of touch, and not at all prone to seeing him as aggressive. Peter Dutton gets favourable scores on being decisive and handling pressure, somewhat unfavourable ones for the others, and interestingly manages to break even on aggression. Charts are included showing how the leaders’ ratings have tracked historically, showing drops across the board for Albanese between surveys in March 2023 and February 2024.
The poll finds 37% support for the Coalition’s proposed tax discounts for small businesses to spend on meals and entertainment with 31% opposed. Questions on diversity, equity and inclusion find 44% supporting and 26% opposing the proposition that “we need to proactively address the historical injustices that continue to have an impact today”, but 47% agreeing and only 14% disagreeing that “programs that elevate particular minority groups, such as targets and quotas, deliver worse outcomes”. Forty-three per cent felt the government was not doing enough to combat anti-Semitism, compared with 30% for enough and 9% for too much, and there was an exactly even split on whether majority or minority governments are preferable.
Also out this week is the second federal poll from DemosAU, with results similar to the first in November: an unchanged 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1238.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a tie on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred figure, after the Coalition led 52-48 last time. The primary votes are Labor 30% (up half), Coalition 38.5% (down two), Greens 11.5% (steady) and One Nation 5.5% (down half). The two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor leading 50.5-49.5, after trailing 51-49 last time, which I believe is Labor’s first two-party lead in a national poll since the Roy Morgan poll of November 18-24. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1694.
Stinkersays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 12:27 am
Entropy at 12:23 am
I agree the amount of data is small. Probably the only way to get enough data points to determine anything. Would be to look at every states state election too. See if the trend towards the Government holds there on the majority of occasions too.
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Go for it, I look forward to seeing the results.
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I’m not that interested to attempt it. As far as moving the discussion off the original premise. It was The Wombat and not you that initiated that i believe.
Sorry Entropy, are you saying the following post from The Wombat is “wishcasting” by a “rusted on LNP supporter”:
“My take has certainly been that closer to a federal election, polls had tended to swing to the Coalition, as they are probably viewed as more the “safe option” amongst less engaged voters. It’s inherent in being conservative (although I’ll concede the modern incarnation of “conservatism” is pretty radical by historical standards). And/or polling in Australia tends to land slightly left of election day. I’m kinda figuring there’ll be a bit of both this election. But I also agree that Dutton isn’t exactly Mr Popular, although I think he’s vastly more palatable to swinging voters that Abbott.”
Because I’m struggling to see too much in that which would suggest The Wombat’s a rusted on LNP supporter who’s wishcasting anything.
Stinkersays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 12:39 am
Sorry Entropy, are you saying the following post from The Wombat is “wishcasting” by a “rusted on LNP supporter”:
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Are you saying he’s not a rusted on LNP supporter?
Are you suggesting the idea that polls swing towards the Coalition, as we get closer to an election. As contrasted with polls swing towards the Government. That the first contention would not be what the “The Wombat” wishes would occur?
Entropy at 12:48 am
Are you saying he’s not a rusted on LNP supporter?
Are you suggesting the idea that polls swing towards the Coalition, as we get closer to an election. As contrasted with polls swing towards the Government. That the first contention would not be what the “The Wombat” wishes would occur?
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I wouldn’t have the foggiest idea what The Wombat’s personal wishes for the election are, so I truly can’t comment. I certainly don’t read anything that he’s written in that post as suggesting he wants the LNP to win. I do reckon that you jumping to “he desperately wants this to happen” based on what he has written is bizarre, and frankly a bit paranoid.
Stinkersays:
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 at 12:53 am
Entropy at 12:48 am
Are you saying he’s not a rusted on LNP supporter?
Are you suggesting the idea that polls swing towards the Coalition, as we get closer to an election. As contrasted with polls swing towards the Government. That the first contention would not be what the “The Wombat” wishes would occur?
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I wouldn’t have the foggiest idea what The Wombat’s personal wishes for the election are, so I truly can’t comment. I certainly don’t read anything that he’s written in that post as suggesting he wants the LNP to win. I do reckon that you jumping to “he desperately wants this to happen” based on what he has written is bizarre, and frankly a bit paranoid.
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So you take offence at me suggesting someone is “wishcasting”. Yet you are happy to make the claim that i’m “bizarre, and frankly a bit paranoid”.
Which of those two do you really believe is the most offensive statement?
Good night, i don’t want to hang around to see what this discussion degenerates further into though.
Entropy at 12:57 am
So you take offence at me suggesting someone is “wishcasting”. Yet you are happy to make the claim that i’m “bizarre, and frankly a bit paranoid”.
Which of those two do you really believe is the most offensive statement?
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You have an incredibly strange outlook on things. If you think I took “offence” at the use of the term “wishcasting”, I think we have very different definitions of “offense”. Because, no, in no world would I have considered that “offensive”, even if directed towards me.
And you can take offence at my descriptions of your behaviour as bizarre and paranoid if you like – I’m not withdrawing them, and I’m happy to double down on the “bizarre” descriptor as you keep coming back with responses of the type above.
Entropy at 12.57pm
Good night, i don’t want to hang around to see what this discussion degenerates further into though.
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Cheerio, and make sure to check there aren’t any reds under the bed before you switch the light off.
The biggest of the many problems with this forum is Labor tribalists imputing bad faith to anyone expressing a judgement contrary to what they would like to be true.
William Bowe at 1:03 am
The biggest of the many problems with this forum is Labor tribalists imputing bad faith to anyone expressing a judgement contrary to what they would like to be true.
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Sounds like the words of someone who’s praying day and night for a Dutton victory.
I like stinker
“Albo, you got this.”” Don’t fuck it up- Australia holds its breath as PM prepares for make or break Trump call”
This is on the front of the toilet paper they call the West in WA. All those months they were Trumps cheer squad for his election. Now they’re begging for Albo to save the country from his puerile tariffs after they criticise Albo left, right and centre day after day, week after week.
This a complete new low for the media in this country IMO. Just a disgrace to journalism and their ownership.
Moving to a less provocative topic than the one above.
NYT..
“Indeed, Mr. Trump has never been particularly rooted to one ideology for all that long. He switched political parties five times before first running for president as a Republican in 2016, and at one point or another was for abortion rights, gun control, higher taxes on the rich and the invasion of Iraq before he was against all of them.
His most consistent through line going back to his days as a real estate developer in the 1980s has been a conviction that the United States was being cheated by friends and enemies alike, which has informed his views of trade, security and alliances. Otherwise, he has been willing to shift direction if it suits his interests.”
The great irony here is that few would have cheated America more than Donald J Trump… even before he suffered shin splints
It appears Dutton’s mini-me Doge is dead on arrival ???
“Littleproud says ‘hardly any’ public servant jobs to go under Coalition government in significant backdown”
“It’s a change of pace for the Nationals leader who vowed to slash as many as 36,000 public servant jobs back in August 2024”
summary:
The opposition has reversed its promise to cut tens of thousands of federal jobs, opting instead to trim the bureaucracy through natural attrition. Nationals leader David Littleproud now claims few public service positions will be cut, arguing that many of the planned 36,000 new roles are unnecessary. Opposition leader Peter Dutton also pledged no additional jobs in Canberra, with detailed plans forthcoming. Shadow minister Jane Hume stressed that essential and frontline roles would remain intact while pursuing a more efficient public service—a strategy echoing critiques of government inefficiency similar to those voiced by US President Donald Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/10/littleproud-says-hardly-any-public-servant-jobs-to-go-under-coalition-government-in-significant-backdown
Some support for the thesis William stated above, as it applies to the US situation & probably the world over… according to Alana Newhouse in 2023… it’s not a left / right divided, it’s something more fundamental & brings some on the left & right together….
Gray Area podcast … Is America Broken?
“So we’re here to talk about your essay on Brokenism, which I have to say really landed for me, and I’m still working out what I think about it, frankly. But I just wanted to start by saying that.
I’m still working it out too, so maybe we can work it out together.
Let’s try. So let’s actually just start with you summing up your thesis in that piece. Tell me about what you think is now the most vital debate in America.
The debate that I find the most interesting and that I think is going to be the one that is going to take us through the next, call it five to ten years, isn’t a debate between Republicans or Democrats or between the left and the right, or even between progressives and conservatives. The debate that I find myself most drawn to, and I think a lot of other people increasingly want to participate in, is a debate about our institutions and about the viability of them and the health of them. The two sides that I saw emerging, I roughly call brokenists and status quoists.”
From The Gray Area with Sean Illing: Is America broken?, 10 Feb 2025
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-gray-area-with-sean-illing/id1081584611?i=1000690804613&r=289
This material may be protected by copyright.
Link to essay
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/brokenism-alana-newhouse
Dr Doolittle @ #1664 Monday, February 10th, 2025 – 10:43 pm
True dat. Nor that from the big brain of WB. 😉
New thread.
I absolutely want the Coalition to win.
But I’m also no conservative version of Scott.
I see that the star of “what’s it like to be jewish in Sydney” has now engaged a lawyer and is threatening the Cairo Takaway with a defamation suit. This, if it proceeds, should be as interesting as the Lattouf case.