The third by-election in as many weeks takes place in Queensland on Saturday for the state seat of Stafford, vacated by the death on April 4 of Labor-turned-independent member Jimmy Sullivan. The by-election is a return to simpler times in being a straightforward contest between Labor and the Liberal National Party with the Greens as the biggest party on the sidelines, One Nation having opted not to run in a seat that is too close to the city to be convivial territory for them.
The question is thus whether a Labor opposition enduring the doldrums that typically follow being evicted from office can defend a margin of 5.3%. David Crisafulli’s government is at a correspondingly favourable point in its life cycle, although it has been enduring an ill-timed ministerial scandal over recent weeks. The Greens have placed a speed bump in Labor’s path by declining to direct preferences on their how-to-vote card — this typically makes a difference of about 5% to the flow of their preferences to Labor, which is non-trivial in the context of a seat where its vote share at the 2024 election was 18.1%.
The closest we have come to an opinion poll is a straw poll of 300 voters conducted at the electorate’s two pre-poll centres by the Sunday Mail, which found 41.7% saying they had voted for the LNP, 36.7% for Labor, 12.7% for the Greens and 8% for independents. This compares with 2024 election results of LNP 38.1%, Labor 38.8% and Greens 18.1%, or 39.6%, 39.3% and 17.0% specifically among pre-poll votes. The accompanying report oddly claimed this put the LNP “on track for by-election upset”, despite the movements being inside the Labor margin. The independents include Liam Parry, part of the unregistered Queensland Socialists, who has been in the news as the first person charged for using the proscribed “from the river to the sea” chant at a pro-Palestine rally in March.
My two cents worth on this by-election.
A couple of issues are gathering steam in QLD atm.
* Crime in Townsville has been replaced by crime along the Gold Coast. Local media has subsequently attacked the “adult crime, adult time” laws as being somewhat weak.
* A Ministerial issue between Minister’s Tim Mander & Amanda Camm (both LNP) has ignited a debate about whether gov’t decisions may have been compromised as a result of their “secret long term affair”. Gosh!
This is a minor issue in comparison to the arrest of Former Premier (Annastacia Palusczuk’s) partner who has subsequently been charged with rape & false imprisonment matters. He faces court on 7-Jul.
* Another issue up here has been the ongoing rail strikes. The rail system was partially shut down over our recent school holidays, and it appears there will be rolling stoppages again this weekend, whilst QLD is hosting “magic round” for the NRL. This is all disappointing & a bit frustrating given the spike in petrol prices (and Brisbane is not an easy city to drive around in either). I suppose it depends on whether the public blames the union or the gov’t.
* ON is not fielding a candidate, but we have one from the “QLD Socialists”, who has been running a minor campaign along the lines of “from the river to the ballot box”. This sort of rhetoric may go down well in some parts of Melbourne or Sydney, but I don’t think it will work here.
My guess is that the ALP will retain the seat this weekend, with a slight haircut on their primary & 2PP.
I don’t think that there has ever been a state by-election in QLD that has generated less interest. I had forgotten about it. I expect turnout to be low.
Re “A Ministerial issue between Minister’s Tim Mander & Amanda Camm (both LNP) has ignited a debate about whether gov’t decisions may have been compromised as a result of their “secret long term affair”.
No actual allegation of wrongdoing in regard to any particular matter has been alleged, or hinted at. The opposition has asked for a investigation, basically on the basis of an overall fishy smell and that something might have happened somewhere.
nadia: ‘A Ministerial issue between Minister’s Tim Mander & Amanda Camm (both LNP) has ignited a debate about whether gov’t decisions may have been compromised as a result of their “secret long term affair”.’
As a devout Baptist lad, Timmy will surely want to make an honest woman of his paramour.
Stand by for Amanda Mander …
Ha ha Oliver.
Possibly.
Good to see you posting back here too.
What’s your gut feel?
Fargo61 – agreed. Bit of a non issue. In fact, I see today Steven Miles has had to apologise to Parliament after being found in contempt of misleading Parliament.
Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-14/steven-miles-apology-contempt-qld-parliament/106678766
Gosh. May have to revisit my assessment above. I don’t think QLD Labor is in good shape.
I’ll stick with a Labor retain though….just.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/05/stafford-by-election-prospects-and-live.html
Stafford By-Election: Prospects and Live. Live commentary from 6 pm Saturday.
Possibly an LNP win
Definitely True 6
Probably True 1
Probably False 1
Definitely False 6
7 false keys for LNP win.
I’ll go with Labor, it would be good to see the government up there get a bit of kick
Greens should be breaking 20 but might be down a bit with Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis and a Socialist all running
Nadia, no prediction from me on this one, as I honestly have no idea which of ALP or LNP might win it.
Arange, I don’t understand your 17:39 post. I thought you used the keys as an indication of when a Government might be likely to change (with so many false keys being the indicator). How does that relate to a by-election in an opposition held seat please?
Oliver Sutton, I will be doubly impressed if you can use Amanda Mander in a limerick.
Fargo61says:
Thursday, May 14, 2026 at 6:06 pm
“Arange, I don’t understand your 17:39 post. I thought you used the keys as an indication of when a Government might be likely to change (with so many false keys being the indicator). How does that relate to a by-election in an opposition held seat please?”
The incumbent party is Labor, since they won Stafford in 2024, and Jimmy Sullivan can’t contest the by-election.
Sometimes, I use them to predict individual electorates.
Update:
I think it might be:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely False 6
7 false keys for LNP win
I don’t think the LNP is exactly setting Queensland ablaze with enthusiasm, but i think this by-election may be close. It’s not enthusiasm for the LNP, it’s disappointment with the ALP.
Final key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 1
Probably False 1
Definitely False 5
7 false keys for LNP win
(I overlooked something)
Probably a Labor win.
Hopefully a Labor win so the Courier Mail which is an absolute rag has egg all over its face predicting it to fall to the LNP.
FWIW my peeps in the LNP think Labor will win and Labor are quietly confident as they have run a good on the ground campaign with the focal cuts of 93 beds at the local Hospital by the LNP.
One Nation have sat out this one hoping to boost the LNP chances (they are toxic in this part of Brisvegas).
The “Amanda Mander” show is sucking some oxygen from the Government.
Not sure how the metrics of the Federal Budget will play out in Stafford. My initial toughts some cranky landlords but perhaps more happy renters loking to get into the housing market.
On the “hokey” Curious Snail poll – Labor always does much better with on the day votes (as per last State Election). The numbers in the prepoll sample are not surprising.
If Labor does lose, Miles will find himself in some strife. Fentiman or Scanlon would be my pick (and the Left have the numbers), though Dick does keep popping up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
though Dick does keep popping up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The coreflute slogans write themselves…
Upnorthsays:
Friday, May 15, 2026 at 10:34 am
“FWIW my peeps in the LNP think Labor will win and Labor are quietly confident as they have run a good on the ground campaign with the focal cuts of 93 beds at the local Hospital by the LNP.”
The local hospital is RBWH, which is already easily the largest hospital in Australia. It’s something like 300 beds bigger than anything interstate.
@Glam Snow Pony
I buy the Sunday edition for my 85 year old Dad every week. He takes out the tv guide and tosses out the rest. I can’t believe they have the nerve to charge $5 for it.
I have no idea about this seat but I think QLD Labor could very well lose this seat because this is the first opportunity( not really) to show their displeasure against Labor this year after Bondi shootings.
Labor did not contest Napean and Farrer. In NSW Council by-elections, Labor won only Liverpool council by-election in direct contest with Libs. It lost Newcastle Mayoral election and other one is a rural council by-election.
HBG
I think Greens will get less than 20% PV, which probably will lead to Labor defeat.
So Wombat
Based on your comment, are you implying that it is ok to cut 93 beds because it is done by LNP?
If so, Good to know that from a doctor. Any other issue understable. But hospital? That should upset you.
I have no idea about this seat but I think QLD Labor could very well lose this seat because this is the first opportunity( not really) to show their displeasure against Labor this year after Bondi shootings.
@Ven
I don’t think this is a factor, to be honest, in the bye-election. The LNP is actually facing heat from their own Mp’s there not doing enough to combat crime, they are also facing criticism that they are not moving on tougher gun laws after Bondi. But nobody in the media is bringing up Bondi as a factor. I do think Steven Miles is struggling at the moment, though. Factors include David Crisafulli is a steady hand, unlike Campbell Newman, the Federal Labor/State LNP power balance is palatable to voters; and Queensland state Labor’s lack of relevance under Miles leadership could be Labor’s downfall in this bye-election.
Thinking about it, the local hospital is Prince Charles, which is also a very large hospital at 700 beds. I am not aware of 93 beds being cut from RBWH or Prince Charles, but everyone knows QH has developed a big problem with overcentralisation of services into their big, inner-city hospitals, and having done so can’t work out how to unwind it. There’s a very good reason why the other states (and other developed countries) tend to build more smaller hospitals. There’s a wealth of evidence hospitals of 300 to 500 beds in sizee are more efficient, but also more smaller hospitals results in more equitable access to health care services. Interstate, about 600-700 beds is typically the size of a large tertiary hospital. If you were redesigning Metro North HHS, you’d be building a tertiary centre further north. But you would also be splitting the health service. The catchment for Metro North is something like 1.3 million, whereas evidence suggests catchment sizes about half that size are generally better, in terms of efficiency and service delivery.
Wombat
Are you implying that there is no government hospitals with a reasonable bed numbers in QLD especially in Mackey?
Or are you saying that Crisafulli cut 93 beds in Brisbane and distributed them in regional QLD especially in Mackey?
You’d assume that a bad result for QLD Labor today will prompt the left wing powerbrokers to tap Miles on the shoulder and tell him his time is up, then the leadership would go to Shannon Fentimen because she’s from the left faction. Cameron Dick ought to be the logical next QLD Labor leader or my mate on social media Mark Bailey would be ideal too.
Ven, most of those left, centre-left and centre preferences will flow to Labor and get them over the line imo
Can’t imagine issues outside of Queensland playing too big a role
Ven says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 11:12 am
Wombat
Are you implying that there is no government hospitals with a reasonable bed numbers in QLD especially in Mackey?
Or are you saying that Crisafulli cut 93 beds in Brisbane and distributed them in regional QLD especially in Mackey?
=========
Ven,
Pre election there was an agreement between the LNP & labor that there would be additional funding for an extra 93 beds at the Prince Charles Hospital. The LNP has since withdrawn that funding and as such the extra beds won’t be provided.
Not too sure what you are referring to with “Mackey”.
Is it Mackay you are referring to?
The Wombat is talking about “metro north” – ie: the northern outskirts of Brisbane.
Mackay is 1000 kms north of Brisbane.
Two short interviews by 6News, with the main left wing candidates – The Greens and the QLD Socialists.
* Liam Parry (QLD Socs) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZBAJgRf1NE
* Jess Lane (QLD Greens) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqDIAntvZfg
Both candidates speak well, with very little BS.
The state electoral commissioner believes the election will have a low turnout (ie: around 80%), based on their own figures/calculations.
To Quote…
” Stafford recorded a strong turnout of just over 90 per cent in the 2024 election.
But Queensland Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen said he was concerned based on the early voting figures.
Based on the current trend, the electorate is tracking toward 80 per cent, which would be a significant drop off from 2024,” Mr Vidgen said. ”
Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-16/stafford-seat-brisbane-by-election-voting-polling-day/106683322
We should get a result tonight too as it look’s like most of the electorate will vote today. The article above says 35% had voted by Thurs night. Given it’s an inner city electorate, I don’t think postal voting will be particularly high.
“Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams says it’s increasingly likely Fiona Hammond will snatch the seat for the LNP with a predicted vote of 51-52 per cent after preferences are allocated.”
Link: https://au.news.yahoo.com/election-test-former-premiers-leadership-210000500.html
He doesn’t provide a reasoning.
Hmmm. So if turnout is down (as suggested by the Electoral Commissioner), that generally is voters such as renters who move in/out of the electorate and don’t necessarily fill out a change of address form with the QEC. This would probably more impact the “left” vote rather than the “right”. I’m guessing this is Mr Williams’ logic.
I’ll stick with a very slim Labor retain. It’s been a long time in QLD politics since a gov’t won a by-election off the official opposition.
Maybe Nadia, could be rich folk in Europe for the winter? i.e. LNP voters
nadia
Yes,it is Mackay. I believe Wombat resides some where near Mackay. Please read what Wombat posted.
I can’t help thinking that ON is sitting this one out because the mail is that Labor is going to win comfortably. Then they can say to the LNP “You would have been in with a good chance if we had stood and directed preferences to you.”
We’ll know in a few hours. Upnorth’s inside info sounds credible.
FWIW.
URL name self-explanatory:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/16/stafford-byelection-tipped-to-swing-towards-lnp-as-danger-looms-for-steven-miles-leadership-of-queensland-labor
This should be a good test for Labor, if it’s a reasonable result maybe a slight swing against I wouldn’t take too much from it . If Labor loses you’d think that times up for Steven Miles. Either way this will be an interesting result. If the LNP jags the seat there will be plenty of triumphant headlines and much jubilation and euphoria in the pages of tomorrow’s Sunday Mail!!!!
About 80% voting sounds right, maybe as few as 75%. Probably lucky that today hasn’t been pelting down with rain, unlike earlier this week.
Postal votes accounted for about 19.5% of votes in Stafford at the last state election. Stafford is not inner city in my view, more the next ring out. Chermside at the northern end of the electorate, which runs mostly north to south, is about 11 km from the Brisbane CBD.
Courier mail: “Early exit polling shows the LNP on track for an historic win in today’s Stafford by-election, with a primary vote of more than 40 per cent and Labor reliant on preferences.”
Given they (LNP) got near 39% in the 2024 election that is not necessarily a big swing. I don’t have access to the full report, so I don’t know the actual figure, even if the Courier Mail reported it.
Thank’s Fargo61. I can’t get into the Courier Mail either.
I think KB posted a couple of days ago that they are generally unreliable, but still worth a read.
Hopefully WB might get the details & publish when he drops an intro on tonight’s by-election thread.
Fargo61 @ #37 Saturday, May 16th, 2026 – 3:52 pm
It was 150 votes FFS! Worthless – no better than a vox pop
Awful experience on the ground today. Let’s see if there’s a record postal vote next time. We deliberately chose the smallest booth and counted 37 volunteers in party t shirts. Worst behaviour from the Queensland Socialists closely followed by LNP. Yelling right to the booth door.
Why TF the Greens aren’t encouraging people to preference Labor is beyond me, that action helps the LNP I reckon, do the Greens want the Tory’s to win?
Jesus christ they are just that awful and pathetic.
I’m beyond pity for News Corp employees these days. Sure they walk into it all starry-eyed being like “Finally I’m going to speak truth from power” and within a few years they’re like that North Korean propagandist woman being like “Greetings Fellow Revolutionaries!! Our Glorious Liberal National One Nation Party is on the verge of a magnificent success with at least 40% of our brave conservative warriors taking the fight against the dirty socialist rat traitors who seek to thwart us with their simpering dishonorable adherence to preferences!”
Gero says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 4:39 pm
Why TF the Greens aren’t encouraging people to preference Labor is beyond me, that action helps the LNP I reckon, do the Greens want the Tory’s to win?
===========
It’s come from Max, who was upset with the ALP campaign in Brisbane which lost the Greens two Fed seats last year.
It’s payback.
It’s a vicious little by-election playing out tonight.
@Gero at 4:39pm
A significant minority of them want that. Gives them more opportunity to bitch from the sidelines about how both parties are awful (but mostly Labor) while the LNP in power just trashes everything.
Most Greens voters are good and decent people though, just wanting the world to be a better place and assign their preferences accordingly.
EDIT: Yeah, agreed with Nadia above. Max Chandler-Mather is a nasty entitled piece of shit that would totally be on board with that.
Kirs – KB wrote off the Courier Mail “exit” polls a week ago or so, as being unreliable.
Hopefully WB will drop the numbers tonight when the election kicks off.
New thread.
If this is true about M M-C then A. He isn’t fit for further office and B. He needs help to get over the fact that an election is really a competition, and someone loses, so get the fuck over it.