As reported in The Australian, Newspoll has become the last poll series to return for the year, showing the Coalition opening up a 51-49 two-party lead after a 50-50 result in the last poll in early December. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 31%, its equal worst result for the term, with the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are his worst result to date at both ends, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up three to 57%, while Peter Dutton is up one to 40% and steady on 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-38 to 44-41, also Albanese’s weakest showing this term. The poll also finds 24% expect a Coalition majority government, 29% a Coalition minority, 33% a Labor minority and 15% a Labor majority. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1259.
Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)
The first Newspoll of the year maintains an impression of an ongoing slow downward trend for Labor.
Billy McMahon was highly regarded as Treasurer. He was not a particular good PM, but not a bad one either, certainly not compared to some recent holders of the office (looking at you, Tony and Scott). He wasn’t popular with his colleagues, which is why they went with Gorton after Holt’s unfortunate swim at Portsea. He lacked charisma, he had an odd quavery voice which made him seem older than he was (all of 64) and he committed the unforgivable Liberal sin of losing an election. He had the misfortune to come to power towards the end of a generation-long golden age for the Liberals and to be up against a formidable opponent in Gough Whitlam.
”
Democracy Sausagesays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 3:47 pm
For those gloating about the inflation figures today, have you been in a supermarket lately? The prices at my local Woolies for certain things like cheese or kidney beans or other staples have gone up in the past 3 months, not down.
Watching Chalmers at lunch time, you’d think we’re in an economic nirvana right now, he was trying not to be cocky, but he couldn’t quite help himself.
”
“The Albanese government has had no scandals, no rorting, no misusing taxpayers’ money, no bonking of staff, no sackings, no backstabbings. Just well-behaved and competent ministers doing their jobs well. It’s been a refreshing change from nine years of chaos and instability, in which Dutton was a key player.
The alternative is back to the Abbott days of demonising the vulnerable, cutting government services and stirring up more anger and division.”
DS was such powerful supporter of Kamala Harris Candidacy for POTUS. Now nothing is good for DS about Albanese government.
Apparently, DS wants the chaos and corruption that happened during ATM governments period. Shaking my head in disbelief emoji.
Watching the cricket from Sri Lanka on free-to-air.
The ads are annoying, but imagine my delight when a useful community services one comes on informing me of cheaper medicines provided at chemists by the Australian Government. I hope more of this information about the good job Albo and his team are doing is made available to the citizenry.
The Wombatsays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 7:51 pm
Even on that Guardian data which is extremely “optimistic” for the Coalition, they still aren’t making a primary of 40%. If they make 40%, I think they win the election.
============
WB provided an explanation at 1.29pm on 24-Jan on the Victorian by-election thread.
There are a few comments from WB regarding the Guardian poll, so have a flick through, before and after 1.29pm. it was a interesting commentary and there was follow up from some good posters.
He mentions desirability factors etc. Best to read through, rather than I try to explain.
Earlwood is a bit hostile to the Guardian poll tracker.
There is a poster called “Scromo”, who has been quoting these primary figures since late November.
A bit difficult to judge as BT has the ALP a lot higher, as well as Mark the Ballot
KB does not publish primary figures, only the 2PP.
”
Centresays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 7:53 pm
Henry,
Get real…
Let’s get fair dinkum. You only need one Melbourne Cup winner every six years on average for a ROE of 20%+
What are your chances of tipping a tennis player at $11 and making the final?
BUCKLEY’S.
Still, you could probably beat that loser, the worst tipster of all from the US threads – Ven
LOL
”
I never tipped anyone on US threads, you liar.
Entropy:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 7:52 pm
I’m not singling you out, Entropy. I do, though, think we should not condemn the dead, as they’re unable to respond. If I were Jillian or any of McMahon’s kids, I’d be pissed with some of the cheap commentary today. With that, I’m off.
Mavis it has been over the top and has nothing to do with the current state of politics.
Ven
I have never said that I want people to care about gambling – that’s just wrong!
It makes you the liar if there is one between us. I have been critical of Albo for not taking action on gambling advertising reform ever since he escorted his best mate Vlandys to the US – Fact.
Re Ven @7:45.
Political journalist Laurie Oakes described McMahon as “devious, nasty, dishonest – he lied all the time and stole things”
I don’t think that any recent Liberal leaders have stolen anything, but “Lying all the time” is now almost part of the job description.
Steve777says:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 8:20 pm
I don’t think that any recent Liberal leaders have stolen anything, but “Lying all the time” is now almost part of the job description.
_______________________________________
well that’s nothing compared to this bad egg who has been guitly of Disobedience, stealing, spitting, running away, throwing rocks, kicking stuff, defacing stuff, burning stuff, loitering and graffiti. And that’s just the stuff we know about.
Keep digging centre
Tbh, Labor could take some advice from Principal Victoria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjtG6L78POk
Honestly one of the best scenes in all of South Park.
@nath:
“ I found the ending of Saul to be illogical and unsatisfying. But lets not continue this or Earlwood will get involved and that will force me to get all hot and bothered.”
______
As to the ending of Saul, we are as one.
Yes earlwood but that opens up the BB can of worms.
Griff says:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 7:07 pm
Just to clarify, the Coalition and the far left are saying disinflation is insufficient and want Australia to enter a period of deflation. Despite Australia entering a position of real growth in wages.
Does anyone know what level of deflation is being sought and for how long?
Have you got sources for this? If you already mentioned the sources up thread, I apologise, I cannot see it.
Just for the record, deflation is incredibly bad. Great Depression and Japan since 1991 refers. China is looking like it is also going in a deflationary period, very similar to Japan. The thing that is keeping China still afloat at the moment is exports.
Thanks, Nadia, I will check it out.
I wonder if Dutton as LOTO had a briefing about this caravan in the past two weeks? If so, was that why he was raising a ruckus about anti-Semitism knowing fully well some big was about to blow?
Thankfully, it didn’t blow.
sealionsays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 8:42 pm
Griff says:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 7:07 pm
Just to clarify, the Coalition and the far left are saying disinflation is insufficient and want Australia to enter a period of deflation. Despite Australia entering a position of real growth in wages.
Does anyone know what level of deflation is being sought and for how long?
Have you got sources for this? If you already mentioned the sources up thread, I apologise, I cannot see it.
=====================================================
As far as i know Dutton didn’t say he wanted deflation. Instead he wanted austerity measures. Similar to what UK Tories put in place. I think people are saying those would have resulted in deflation.
This Murdoch rag article from 6 months ok. Is sort of thing they are talking about i assume?
“Jim Chalmers warns against austerity measures at a time of flat economic growth and high interest rates following calls by Liberal MPs for cost-cutting to lower ballooning structural deficits.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fliberals-tell-peter-dutton-to-embrace-ukstyle-austerity%2Fnews-story%2F3a84a77df8bf37844c653def4258930c&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
sealion says:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 8:42 pm
Griff says:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 7:07 pm
“Just to clarify, the Coalition and the far left are saying disinflation is insufficient and want Australia to enter a period of deflation. Despite Australia entering a position of real growth in wages.
Does anyone know what level of deflation is being sought and for how long?”
Have you got sources for this? If you already mentioned the sources up thread, I apologise, I cannot see it.
Just for the record, deflation is incredibly bad. Great Depression and Japan since 1991 refers. China is looking like it is also going in a deflationary period, very similar to Japan. The thing that is keeping China still afloat at the moment is exports.
___________
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/that-pain-isnt-going-away-shadow-treasurer-comments-on-inflation-drop/video/4ba58272ffa75b6bd58696e0a88fdf1c
‘“That accumulated price increase, that accumulated pain for Australian households is not going away,” Mr Taylor said.’
Disinflation does not suffice to make accumulated price increases go away. So deflation is required; ipso facto. I shall add a caveat that growing real wages would work. Perhaps that is what Taylor is wanting to do? If so, I look forward to hearing Coalition policy on this.
As for the far left, feel free to scroll upwards for comments. They don’t have official spokespersons 🙂
Griffsays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 9:08 pm
================================================
I knew Taylor was an idiot but that’s bonkers. The LNP’s call for austerity measures was crazy enough. This is just insane.
Deflation is pretty much worse thing an economy can suffer from and like inflation, it can take ages to put right, if at all.
Ven at 8.01pm.
Democracy Sausage is a fairly prescient poster on this site and has a very thorough read of Australian politics. Pls check out his postings on the QLD election threads – he knows exactly what is going on in this country, & probably because he doesn’t spend all day, every day, sitting on some electronic platform imagining things and/or surrounding himself with people who agree with a certain viewpoint. I can imagine he is a person who mixes with all types, listens to alternative views, and forms an opinion as any adult Australian should do so. He is entitled to a level of respect. He is a good poster on this site. Read what he types because, quite frankly, he has a solid grip on Oz politics!
If you don’t like his views, by all means go back to your bubble, or read the NY Times/Daily Kos/CNN, and let them tell you what you want to hear. No big deal. And if he’s changed his views from Kamala to whatever, it means he’s changed his views on where he thinks politics are trending.
The other day you also had a dig at me over the primary figures out of Victoria – 22% for the ALP via Resolve Media. Somehow you managed to twist that into a “nadia is against climate change, and worse still, I was apparently licking my lips with excitement”.
Where do you get all this from?
Did you see me on the site last week giggling like a teenager, when Resolve also produced a 25% ALP primary federally out of Victoria.
Do you think I created the 22% ALP primary for Ms Allan?
Do you think we should avoid discussion of such polls?
Would you prefer to hear some sort of “narrative” along these lines…
“a 25 or 22%% primary for the ALP in Victoria means that the ALP will pick up even more seats in Parliament, and are likely to gain control of the Upper House”.
There are plenty of posters on this site who will tell you this, but I won’t be one of them.
The numbers are the numbers Ven, so please grow up.
Most, not all of us, are just trying to work out what’s going on and why.
…and as for the poster who told DS to “shoves his views up his pipe”
From me to you – “shove your own clueless views up your pipe, & better still, perhaps try contributing something to the site rather than dissing posters who actually have a clue”.
Evening all!
Though the ABC did give Taylor the benefit of the doubt. Concluding he just stuffed up and didn’t know what he was talking about. Concluding, if Taylor actually knew what deflation was, he probably wouldn’t want it. Sometimes being as thick as a brick is good thing. As the ABC will then make excuses for you.
“It was a tougher task for Angus Taylor, who tried to emphasise the negatives but got himself a little stuck when he complained prices “weren’t coming down”. That’s called deflation and it’s a disaster for economies, often associated with recession. Which might be why he tried to backtrack when asked again.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/federal-politics-blog-january-29/104870084#live-blog-post-149609
Themunz
Thanks for this!!
I thought I was the only one here who remembered.
B. S. Fairman @ #1266 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 8:45 pm
Well, they located it and that’s a good thing.
While Anthony Albanese was Prime Minister. *cough*
“Did you see me on the site last week giggling like a teenager, when Resolve also produced a 25% ALP primary federally out of Victoria.”
I guess different things make different people happy. Not something that would make me happy though.
Though we obviously differ. I would much prefer i was wrong, in where i believe the Trump regime is heading. As i would prefer the world was a better place. Then getting my prediction right. As it would be easier to live with a wrong prediction than a fully fascist Trump regime.
“…and as for the poster who told DS to “shoves his views up his pipe”
I can’t stand DS’s extremely pro-Likud views and will continue to call him out when he posts them.
Nadia @ 9.25 pm
Well said, a beauty, agree 100%.
Loved your post, Nadia.
Who needs William when we have the democracy sausage!
What prices need to do, is stabilise, not keep going up and up faster than wages can keep up with them.
I mean, if prices go down, does Angus Taylor not realise that the producers in his own electorate would be screwed, especially by the big supermarket chains?
And wages will not go up if everything else is going down!
Look, it’s obvious, Angus Taylor is where he is because he’s a brainless pretty boy mouthpiece for Big Gina’s policies. He ain’t fooling me though.
Been There @ #1278 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 9:40 pm
We do. 😐
Entropy @ #1275 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 9:34 pm
Exactly. Take each post as discreet and treat it accordingly.
The Guardian poll tracker can’t be taken at face value – they effectively have their thumb on the scale against Labor’s primary vote. I don’t recall their exact justification for it – they’re either applying a polling error for the 2022 election to polling results since then, or they’re applying changes in primary votes from polls to an observed 2022 election base.
Either way I think it’s dubious to assume polls post the 2022 election would have the same overestimation of the Labor primary that polls seemingly did prior.
I just got my monthly power bill, and thanks to federal Labor’s energy rebate it’s only $65, rather than the $140 it would have been ordinarily.
I’m very relieved about that.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 9:44 pm
==========================================
You are correct C@T, each post on its merit. Something a number of the stooges on here don’t understand.
Nadia calls them to arms, this time against Ven, then they just follow like blind stooges.
Watch the cricket on Seven free to air tonight and even the news breaks on this LNP friendly channel reported the inflation figures today as “lower than expected” with a rate cut “more likely”.
I was thinking Angus Taylor looked grumpy earlier today while haranguing the government about the economy. He could barely hide his disgust.
Angus wasn’t grumpy on behalf of consumers. Angus was grumpy because he knew that a rates cut is more likely now. He would cheerfully inflict any economic damage if it got the LNP elected.
sprocket_ @ #1252 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 8:01 pm
They are on MAFS too, as well as the ‘Future Made In Australia’ ads. So is Cane Toad Palmer as well, sadly. 🙁
Entropy says:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 9:26 pm
Though the ABC did give Taylor the benefit of the doubt. Concluding he just stuffed up and didn’t know what he was talking about. Concluding, if Taylor actually knew what deflation was, he probably wouldn’t want it. Sometimes being as thick as a brick is good thing. As the ABC will then make excuses for you.
“It was a tougher task for Angus Taylor, who tried to emphasise the negatives but got himself a little stuck when he complained prices “weren’t coming down”. That’s called deflation and it’s a disaster for economies, often associated with recession. Which might be why he tried to backtrack when asked again.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-29/federal-politics-blog-january-29/104870084#live-blog-post-149609
________
Good find. Taylor is swimming in waters somewhat unfamiliar to him 😉
Entropy @ #1284 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 9:49 pm
She definitely has a little fan club. 😐
While I’m complaining about The Guardian, the other thing with the Essential poll is that they include an undecided component. I’ve seen posters here mention Essential poll primaries in the same breath as primaries from other polls when they’re not directly comparable.
For example, if the Labor primary comes in at 30 with an undecided of 5, it would effectively be a 30/95=31.6 if you want to compare it to other polls that don’t let respondents choose “undecided”.
The assumption with this is that the undecided respondents break proportionally to how the decided voters do, which isn’t perfect but is probably the best assumption that could be made.
William, is this how you treat Essential poll primaries in BludgerTrack or is there a different methodology you adopt?
Socrates @ #1285 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 9:49 pm
Soc,
You know, and I know, that the last thing the Coalition wants before the election is for the RBA to begin cutting interest rates. They know that that is the main reason the great unwashed are grumpy with the government and it will be like a breath of fresh air for people if rates start coming down again and it would, um, show Labor has the country on the right track, and there goes the Coalition’s tag line for the election. 😀
Entropy @ #1284 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 9:49 pm
Nadia calls them to arms and they just follow like blind stooges.
____________
Stealing more of my material! wow. What an unoriginal mind.
“Nadia calls them to arms and they just follow like blind stooges.”
So says Climate Cult Highpriest Entropy
Too blind yourself to take a good look in the mirror.
In regard inflation it is the response of Taylor today – as reported on the ABC who have then analysed the response of Taylor and the impact of his response
As I put earlier, also in response to Taylor, one of the responsibilities of the RBA is to keep inflation within a band of 2/3%
By extension therefore inflation is a fact of life – the alternate being stagflation which inflicts more damage on societies than high inflation, so no inflation and the wider impact of no inflation
Taylor was promoting no inflation hence the response
With inflation within the band the RBA targets being 2/3% what you then need for a vibrant economy is wages growth slightly in advance of the rate of inflation so delivering capacity to individuals to spend within their means
It is noted that this government actually presents to Fair Work Australia unlike its predecessor which by their absence supported the case of employers that one persons pay rise was another persons job – a position argued by Anthony as deputy pm at a business function in Adelaide all those years ago and which remains the position of the Tories and their business sector
Quite frankly, the government and the RBA have played a blinder from inflation which impacted post the pandemic and then the impacts on commodity prices courtesy of the Ukraine/Russia conflict (and inflation was global), so over 4/5 years ago, at 6% and trending upwards, reaching 8% shortly after this government came to Office
Yes, given the political cycle you could present that the RBA was slow to react, but did react prior to the last election because there became no option
A blinder because employment is readily available and wages are increasing
The Target Cash Rate at 4.35%, which is quite moderate
And we are where we are today
As I put on this site some time ago, the settings and the progress will see a rate cut on 18 February, of 25 Basis Points with further cuts to follow at successive RBA Board meetings, so 50 Basis Points prior to the election, at least
The opposition is now caught at the beach, the tide going out and with no clothes other than incoherent babbling and confected outrage
And to return to McMahon, during an election campaign, at a public rally we were instructed to attend at the Adelaide Town Hall by the Board of Directors, McMahon reading skipped a page. He was oblivious much to our amusement
“What is he saying?”
He missed a page so then totally out of context and when introduced to him and the comment “Did you miss a page?” he had a puzzled look responding “What are you talking about?”
He didn’t know!!!
Bit like Alf Gard on the ABC calling a horse he did not recognise
It was a copper on a motor bike on Dequetiville Terrace hence the black and white colors Alf could not place
True
Alf loved a drink
Good position at stumps but what is a good score on this deck?
And given the anonymous contributions on this site, why even have an election?
Just appoint on the say so of these anonymous experts
Mick you’re right.
Some take Essential as the same as other pollsters.
Essential explains what they are doing, and I get it.
Others don’t read the fine print or ignore to suit their ideology.
Is the climate cult led by the climate scientists?
davesays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 9:58 pm
Entropy @ #1284 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 9:49 pm
Nadia calls them to arms and they just follow like blind stooges.
____________
Stealing more of my material! wow. What an unoriginal mind.
==============================================
It was Nath’s material. Are you claiming to be him?
As i thought he was banned.
Cat 9:57
Yes, exactly. Night all.
The spin on the economy in the morning papers should be amusing.
sustainable snailsays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 10:01 pm
Is the climate cult led by the climate scientists?
==========================================
If Centre’s claim was true, then no. My PhD was in molecular genetics. Though i suspect the leaders of the climate deniers. Are well qualified in their idiocy, in not having done any science at all, beyond secondary school.
CentreBets understanding of mathematics is appalling to. Just read any of his betting posts. In which every time he claims he won. It was break even at best.
From some magical each way bet, that suddenly arises. When the bet he claims to be riding on to victory. Falls well short.
nadia88 rarely has a bad word to say about anyone on this site, but she definately comes out swinging if posters on this site (who she regards well) are treated poorly. Good for her. She’s a fighter. It’s why a lot of us like her. She got stuck into Boer last week, tonight Ven. Good stuff.
Clearly nerves are on edge on PB. The polling for Labor is diabolical, “they sense the loss” and it appears posters are lashing out at other posters, often for no reason.
Go nadia – whoever you are. Appreciate you dropping by every now and again, especially for a poll.
Even though I’m a Lib, and I think you may be a Green, I’m with you…not they/them.