As reported in The Australian, Newspoll has become the last poll series to return for the year, showing the Coalition opening up a 51-49 two-party lead after a 50-50 result in the last poll in early December. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 31%, its equal worst result for the term, with the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are his worst result to date at both ends, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up three to 57%, while Peter Dutton is up one to 40% and steady on 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-38 to 44-41, also Albanese’s weakest showing this term. The poll also finds 24% expect a Coalition majority government, 29% a Coalition minority, 33% a Labor minority and 15% a Labor majority. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1259.
Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)
The first Newspoll of the year maintains an impression of an ongoing slow downward trend for Labor.
Firmly in minority now. Should be exciting with the multiple three way contests. Could be a long night 🙂
From the previous thread:
Mavis says: Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 4:19 pm [‘A brave new authoritarian world
Australia has been following the United States on the foreign stage since the end of World War II. Since 2014, successive Australian governments have been allowing Washington to install its military presence and ultimate control over military installations across this continent, and our country usually climbs on board to join any foreign conflict the White House desires.
…………….
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/trumps-authoritarianism-has-already-reshaped-western-politics/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-5
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You might think this article you copied was accurate. But it isn’t. As I have said several times on pollbludger, it was Labor PM Gillard in 2011 that allowed Washington to install its military presence in Australia.
It should read since 2011. Not since 2014.
And it is Labor PM Albanese that has continued this willingness for US military presence in Australia.
November 16, 2011.’ Up to 2,500 US Marines will be stationed in Australia by 2017 under a new agreement announced by Prime Minister Julia Gillard and US president Barack Obama.
Ms Gillard confirmed the deployment during a joint press conference with Mr Obama only hours after he touched down in Canberra on his whirlwind visit.
She says 200 to 250 Marines will be stationed in Darwin for training from next year, with numbers building up to 2,500 over the next five years.
“It is a new agreement to expand the existing collaboration between the Australian Defence Force and the US Marine Corps and the US Air Force,” she said.’
Gillard, Obama detail US troop deployment – ABC News
https://search.app/wrW292wz328BZp7P7
Misinformation. Even from criminal lawyers!
As for this latest Newspoll. Continues the trend from other polls. Indicates the future for Labor. It seems.
I wonder if Labor’s eagerness for even closer tries to the US, especially with newly installed President Trump, allowing nuclear submarine, bomber, stealth fighter bases as well as waste AUKUS radioactive waste around Australia is a step too far for many.
Democracy Sausage says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 9:49 pm
Yes, waiting for Scott to assure us Newspoll shows Albanese is winning a big majority at the next election, or those evil LNP media units have faked a pro Dutton poll.
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From previous thread…
Albo’s been out and about over summer, as we all know.
Drop of 2 on the Primary, and the netsat is also down.
It’s not a “falling off the cliff” primary, but it’s def not the best start to the year.
Good to see you round again too Democracy Sausage!
Irenesays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:15 pm
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Didn’t you post this about 10 minutes ago on the previous thread?
It hasn’t improved with age.
It’s not unheard of for people to repost things that they posted in the previous thread just before the new thread was created.
Eine Katastrophe droht!
William, I think there might be a BludgerTrack anomaly with the Labor 2pp swing since last election for Queensland.
People have stopped listening to Albo. An emergency Colin looks like their only option now.
C@t/Boer,
* Minority Labor with the Greens, or
* Minority Labor with the Greens and a couple of Teals.
The Green vote has ticked up a bit during January. I think the Indie vote has slipped a bit but will wait until BT is updated. PHON & LNP seem to be holding up.
What’s your respective read as of Jan-26?
Lars – what’s an emergency Colin.
You’ve mentioned it a couple of times recently. What is it pls?
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:21 pm
Eine Katastrophe droht!
________
As you say this regularly, I shall mention that it isn’t ideal grammar. Try “es droht eine Katastrophe” 😉
Long term trend for over a year says three more months of Albo and his own goal government meaning they will be battling not to lose outright.
Watch the pressure to ramp up this week with desperate labor interest rate cut plea if inflation figures are half decent on Wednesday.
Panic will be setting in shortly VIC is a disaster dragging fed labor down.
Emergency Colin err maybe Colonoscopy?
nadia88 says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:25 pm
C@t/Boer,
* Minority Labor with the Greens, or
* Minority Labor with the Greens and a couple of Teals.
The Green vote has ticked up a bit during January. I think the Indie vote has slipped a bit but will wait until BT is updated. PHON & LNP seem to be holding up.
What’s your respective read as of Jan-26?
_________
Labor doesn’t need The Greens yet. They may do if it slides further. We don’t know how many there will be either.
Nadia88 – bring Shorten back to lead the party to the election like Colin Barnett after he had announced his returement
Deserving of Dutton more and more everyday in everyway.
nadia88 @ #9 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:57 pm
From context, I think it’s a leadership change. I have no idea what the name Colin itself is a reference to.
Nadia88,
I haven’t seen much of a Greens uptick. To me, they’ve been flat for a few months.
Nevertheless, a drop in the labor vote would be enough for the Greens to pick up a seat or two, with McNamara at the top of the list.
Never mind, it was answered as I posted.
LVT
Ain’t going to happen.
Sinner wins AO 6-3 in the third. Looks like Centre did all his dough then.
It’s too late for that, Bill Shorten officially resigned as the MP for Maribyrnong on 20 January.
It’d cause quite a lot of chaos to reverse that.
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:33 pm
It’s too late for that, Bill Shorten officially resigned as the MP for Maribyrnong on 20 January.
It’d cause quite a lot of chaos to reverse that.
__________
Even better for Lars 😉
Albo gets beaten, he will resign and leave parliament too. He won’t be hanging around.
Colin Barnett had resigned and someone else had been preselected when he came back to lead the party.
It’s the precedent in this situation.
-20 net say it’s clearly a personal rejection of Albo more than the govt that is going on.
Do they really want to lose to Peter Dutton? Penny Wong has to act in the best interests of the party.
Thanks Lars!
I thought “colin” was slang for colonoscopy, and I wasn’t sure how having that proceedure would assist.
Maybe they could put Jim in. He can run on the platform of “I’m a well-groomed centrist from Queensland. Vote for me.” According to some on here, that’s all Labor needs to win big.
Interestingly, in the Mother Of Parliaments (Westminster), it’s actually illegal for an MP to resign. They employ a ‘legal fiction’ to effect a resignation, where the MP is appointed to some old office which exists on paper but where the holder is disbarred from holding public office.
Well, I think it’s interesting.
Maybe it’s just me.
Lars Von Trier @ #23 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 10:36 pm
Huh, you’re right there.
Entropy says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:31 pm
Sinner wins AO 6-3 in the third. Looks like Centre did all his dough then.
—————
He also picked Sabalenka to win yesterday.
I am sure that c@t will “remember” all this too next time Centre logs on.
AM – yes it’s called the Chiltern Hundreds.
The first job of the party leader is to win – if Albo cannot win he should step aside to allow a bloodless transition.
Labor are not going to burn Albo and then burn Chalmers at the next election. Chalmers will be OL when Albo resigns.
Any ideas of your own Griff? Or just keep on keeping on?
steve davis has accepted defeat. Gone all Mundo.
Ah, but on second reading, had Colin Barnett officially vacated his seat at that point? Or was he still technically the MP for Cottesloe at that point?
In which case that’s one step less than Bill Shorten has taken since he’s now no longer the MP for Maribyrnong.
Steve Davis will be shot at dawn for cowardice by a firing party led by Boer and c@t.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:30 pm
Nadia88 – bring Shorten back to lead the party to the election like Colin Barnett after he had announced his returement
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You must be joking. Shorten’s influence, in the leadership of the Faceless men, getting the numbers to remove popular PM Rudd ( even if not popular with posters here ) led to 4 Labor election losses.
As Labor’s Mark Butler noted, the Newspoll just before Rudd was removed on June 24, 2010 showed :
Labor 52:48 LNP. Figures Labor and Albanese would like now. Today.
Under Shorten’s influence, and he would have had significant influence, he was determined to be a Labor PM, Labor then lost in 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019. And you can be sure in the last 2 elections mentioned, Shorten’s unpopularity was a significant factor (as noted in the Emerson and Weatherill analysis of the 2019 Labor loss ).
Shorten has said he is still young enough, 57, for a new career. And a better salary too. Doubt if his Labor colleagues would want him back anyway. His support for Howard, Turnbull and Morrison polices – ie business running most services, and maybe AUKUS too as Shorten has always been a big supporter of the USA, discussed his polices and Rudd’s popularity and policies with people in the US Consulate is likely why Labor is in this losing position.
Labor has become Liberal-lite.
Shorten stayed in politics after the 2019 election loss ‘as he had more to contribute’. I guess all the Labor policies above.
Many are similar to those Gillard took to the 2013 election. And lost badly then too.
A minister outside of parliament (including PM) can be appointed for a period of at least 3 months (maybe 6 not sure)
They could make Shorten PM pending a decision in a general election – it’s close enough to end of term that they can do it.
Albo did a Nat press club Address on Friday the day before a long weekend.
January a wasted month for fed Labor government the tipping point may be here.
If mainstream Aussies who are getting wall to wall trump at the moment through media like some of his policies that go against fed labor policies voters may say get stuffed labor even more.
Dutton on message setting up a Dodge or whatever this week to cull ps numbers trying to get votes via trump.
So this right wing government is leading federal Labor to oblivion. What does the right wing cabal on here think about that? Boer, Cat etc?
We’re now pretty far away from “Ten years of Albanese followed by ten years of Chalmers.”
I had thought Jim was logical but he’s proven himself too ineffectual. The moment and the electorate demands someone who is going to do things – it has to be Shorten.
nadia88says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:41 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:31 pm
Sinner wins AO 6-3 in the third. Looks like Centre did all his dough then.
—————
He also picked Sabalenka to win yesterday.
I am sure that c@t will “remember” all this too next time Centre logs on.
=====================================================
Yep, all his bets were poor ones. Then again most of us know gambling is a mugs game. The fact that “Centre” is in to it so much, is just more proof of concept.
LVT
If you had half a brain you would be dangerous.
steve davis says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:42 pm
Labor are not going to burn Albo and then burn Chalmers at the next election. Chalmers will be OL when Albo resigns.
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You calling the election an LNP win?
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:49 pm
I had thought Jim was logical but he’s proven himself too ineffectual. The moment and the electorate demands someone who is going to do things – it has to be Shorten.
______________________
Can anyone name an effective critique about nukes or the lunch tax benefit by either Albo or Chalmers in the last month?
What’s the pithy simple way they attacked either policy?
Nadia
Well its just stupid saying that Albo is going to be replaced before the election after the previous merry go round in 2o13.
I would like to wager a hundred million billion gagillion dollars* on the next government being minority Labor. It’s what I have thought inevitable since before they finished counting the votes from the last election.
Governments always lose seats after one term, and oppositions just don’t gain enough seats.
* = Possibly not real dollars.
Yes Dave I think the hour of Littlefinger has finally arrived!
Chaos is a ladder!
dave says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:42 pm
Any ideas of your own Griff? Or just keep on keeping on?
__________
From an external perspective Labor is suffering from events. I personally want a more progressive policy platform taken to the next election as that was promised. Steady hand on the tiller first term and more progressive in the second. A living safety net is required. Plenty of progressive policy that The Greens have without the OTT elements could be appropriated. Dental for instance.
That said, I simply don’t know if that is enough, because of events.
Edit: tiller, not till. Although till could work in this case 🙂