As reported in The Australian, Newspoll has become the last poll series to return for the year, showing the Coalition opening up a 51-49 two-party lead after a 50-50 result in the last poll in early December. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 31%, its equal worst result for the term, with the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are his worst result to date at both ends, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up three to 57%, while Peter Dutton is up one to 40% and steady on 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-38 to 44-41, also Albanese’s weakest showing this term. The poll also finds 24% expect a Coalition majority government, 29% a Coalition minority, 33% a Labor minority and 15% a Labor majority. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1259.
Allegra Spender’s mother died after falling down two steps at the Opera. Coincidence? I think not.
davesays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 4:35 pm
Not even your own material.
======================================
Your against recycling now?
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 4:44 pm
Allegra Spender’s mother died after falling down two steps at the Opera. Coincidence? I think not.
================================================
Pretty sure people have died taking falls on footpaths. With no steps involved at all. Though the Dan steps conspiracy, made no sense at all. I think they were trying to claim, the injuries he suffered, couldn’t be just from falling down some steps. Yet there are numerous examples, like the one you cite, where people falling on steps have sustained terrible injuries or death.
So Oscar Jenkins is alive. Wow !
RD
Russians say they have him in custody.
There really is no need to bring Sonia or Julian into the conversation. Not when you have Laurie Oakes’ character assessment:
Political journalist Laurie Oakes described McMahon as “devious, nasty, dishonest – he lied all the time and stole things” before describing an incident where McMahon attempted to steal a tape recorder from his radio station by claiming ownership of the device despite it having the radio station’s name engraved on it. He concludes by saying that McMahon was a “totally unworthy individual and the fact that he was Prime Minister of this country was a disgrace
Not that it puts me off. The fact he was devious, nasty and stole things kind of makes me look more fondly upon him.
Well well…
In Whitlam’s words McMahon was Tiberius with a telephone.
(I have always assumed this referred to the fall of Sejanus among others, rather that Tiberius’ pastimes on Capri)
The stairs on which Dan Andrews was nearly killed, nearly plunging Victoria into a Succession crisis and forcing Her Majesty to sign something.
Citizen
“Looks like Trump is happy to pull the rug out from under Taiwan. Obviously Taiwan is expendable in Trumpworld.”
——————————————
If Trump is not going to defend Taiwan, then I must ask, why are we still in DUFUS, sorry, AUKUS??
davesays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 4:58 pm
There really is no need to bring Sonia or Julian into the conversation. Not when you have Laurie Oakes’ character assessment:
Political journalist Laurie Oakes described McMahon as “devious, nasty, dishonest – he lied all the time and stole things” before describing an incident where McMahon attempted to steal a tape recorder from his radio station by claiming ownership of the device despite it having the radio station’s name engraved on it. He concludes by saying that McMahon was a “totally unworthy individual and the fact that he was Prime Minister of this country was a disgrace
===================================================
That would assume my prime motivation was to talk about Silly Billy. When in fact it was to talk about conspiracy theories around people falling down stairs. While i believe Billy was both clumsy and often drunk. So i would assume fell down many stairs. He was probably protected by Saint Dionysus, the patron saint of drunkenness, when he did so.
Further, re Prahran
Socratessays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 5:04 pm
Citizen
“Looks like Trump is happy to pull the rug out from under Taiwan. Obviously Taiwan is expendable in Trumpworld.”
——————————————
If Trump is not going to defend Taiwan, then I must ask, why are we still in DUFUS, sorry, AUKUS??
=========================================================
To paraphrase….. “Pine gap my boy, Pine Gap”
davesays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 5:04 pm
The stairs on which Dan Andrews was nearly killed, nearly plunging Victoria into a Succession crisis and forcing Her Majesty to sign something.
==================================================
When one looks at the picture. One can see the life of great wealth and splendour that Dan was accustomed to. That’s nearly the Victorian equivalent of the Taj Mahal and what a grand staircase that is. I can see a Disney movie being filmed there. With Cinderella losing her slipper as she runs down them.
Obviously tongue in cheek but i bet the Herald Scum reporters. When tracking down the holiday home, were extremely disappointed, it was not some multi-million dollar mansion. Hence after all that work, they had to run with a stupid conspiracy theory. Instead of with, look at the luxurious life Dan lives angle.
In regards the Tshirt message re Murdoch (and 100% correct and which should include Stokes, 9 Entertainment and the USA owners of 10 who Tame also referenced), the complaint that it emboldens totally overlooks those who intimidate on our streets wearing balaclavas
So is wearing balaclavas and carrying anti signage ok?
But Tame wearing a Tshirt is not?
Tories, hey?
One law for them and another for everyone else
Then yell “woke”
Pine Gap?
The problem with that formulation is that it assumes Trump is sane.
False assumption.
Apart from his malignant narcissism, Trump has progressive dementia. A symptom of that is loss of impulse control.
Boerwar is now a big fan of Tony Lupton.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 5:28 pm
Pine Gap?
The problem with that formulation is that it assumes Trump is sane.
False assumption.
Apart from his malignant narcissism, Trump has progressive dementia. A symptom of that is loss of impulse control.
=====================================================================
I think his CIA Director would be in his ear within seconds:-)
Themunz
CIA Director? Trump has chosen with 100% thoroughness people who display overt loyalty to him. That includes not disagreeing with him.
Xi, incidentally, has the same problem. He has murdered or sacked or disappeared those who speak truth to power.
Well, if we are going to be talking about medical incidents, I had one today and ended up at my local Emergency Department! As I haven’t had to attend the ED since the change of government, both federally and in my state, I can directly compare the pair, and boy what a difference 3 years has made!
No more overflowing ED with people needing to come there because their GP no longer Bulk Bills, even if they are a welfare recipient, and even if they aren’t I could see the difference that having an Urgent Care Clinic has made. So, instead of waiting 6-7 hours to be seen I was walking through the door and out again in just over an hour!
Not to mention the fact that NSW Health appear to have introduced a multi disciplinary approach to treatment which triages you to, for example, a physiotherapist, if you don’t need to see a doctor. Which is what happened to me because I had done ligament damage to my knee.
I just wish more people knew about this because it is a really transformative change that has occurred in the Health space.
Labor builds and transforms. The Coalition destroys.
Rexy running the lines for Dutton?
As mundo would say, I’m totally shocked.
Discretionary spending is alive and well in Australia as the National statistics confirm (and the areas)
Interest rates on deposits have gone from having a zero in front of them to a 4
Share Markets are at all time highs – dividends flowing
And wages are increasing courtesy also of this government presenting at FWA – noting where unemployment is so if you want a job it is there
Plus, what percentage of the population service a mortgage, so impacted by an increase in interest rates?
Because everything is seen from the perspective of those carrying debt and significant debt I would add – including consumer debt so for the vehicles they drive
Media, and their narrative
The data confirms media as rubbish – and with an agenda
I would put that the very great majority of the population are doing very nicely thank you – hence the discretionary spending on the finer things in life
Where we frequent socially are very well patronised
The data may not please the Tories but it is the fact
Sorry if there’s any double posts here I think there might’ve been some technical difficulties
@goll Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 6:45 am
You’ve definitely given a lot more thought on the “bludgeoned” part of my name, and it’s a very fitting and a morbidly funny explanation given how the uncertainty of this election and the general nature of politics makes people feel bludgeoned in general. I just chose the name Bludgeoned Westie bc I’m from WA and I’m on PB.
You’re right to mention that I believe the results will be determined by a “seat by seat revelation.” I ultimately think that candidate quality (i.e., how liked and popular the candidate is) would be a crucial factor in determining whether Labor can hold onto seats. It’s the reason why I haven’t tipped Hunter or Robertson as flips, Tangney might be recoverable and why I haven’t bothered considering seats like MacArthur or Bruce.
I also have a gut feeling that there may be a “Bundaberg Situation,” where an incumbent in an extremely marginal seat and in an unfavourable election is expected to lose yet somehow retains the seat with a swing in their favour. Idk how Tom Smith managed to keep Bundaberg, but I suspect that he must’ve been well liked in the electorate bc I doubt there would’ve been a sophomore surge due to the huge unpopularity of the then Palaszczuk and Miles governments (despite the polls narrowing at the end in favour for Miles) If there’s any seats that’s applicable for the “Bundaberg Situation,” it might be Bennelong.
@The Wombat Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 7:20 am
I still think an ALP Minority government is likely, but the reason I put the result as a Hung Parliament in general is because there’s so many different reasons any of the Independents can have for choosing both Albo and Dutton and it’d revolve around which reason would matter more to them. The only independents whose vote will be guaranteed would be Katter (who’d vote for Dutton) or Wilkie (who’d vote for no one due to past experiences with Gillard refusing to implement gambling reforms, breaking his deal)
The Teals in general are more likely to choose Albo over Dutton due to their disdain on his Nuclear and social policies but in the same vein could choose to support Dutton to retain their formerly safe Liberal seats (remember how supporting Gillard rather than Abbott burnt Oakeshott and Windsor) If there is a scenario where any of the Teals (most likely Cheney) lose their seat, it may spook them into supporting Dutton imo.
Meanwhile Sharkie and Le are just a big ? in general. Sharkie has indicated she may vote for Dutton yet Mayo voted for Labor in the 2022 2pp vote and Labor is very popular in SA. Dai Le is a former Liberal member yet is representing a traditionally safe Labor seat. However, she may have some resentment towards the Liberal party as they gave her a 10 year suspension from the party due to her Independent bid for Fairfield Mayor in 2016.
There’s also the question of whether Labor would even want to form government with the Greens. Labor and Greens hate each other more than Labor hates Liberals (check PB for reference ha ha ha) and Greens obstructing their policies in the Senate have not endeared Labor (or the public) to the Greens. Furthermore it didn’t end the last time it happened, although imo Labor’s loss in 2010 is attributed more to the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd spills rather than a governing deal with the Greens.
I think ALP has the potential to lose more seats in VIC too, but I don’t feel confident in putting up seats like Bruce, Hawke, Dunkley, Hotham, Holt or even Corangamite as flips.
@ Dr Doolittle Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 12:16 pm
I think I’ve been inconsistent in how I judged candidate factors in each seat. For one, you saw me put Tangney as a LIB flip despite Sam Lim’s popularity whilst Hunter and Robertson are ALP retain due to Repacholi and Reid’s popularity despite declining national sentiments in rural NSW. However, your point on Entsch and Leichardt (and bringing up swings to ALP in rural QLD seats in 2022) has helped me decide that Leichardt might be a more closer race on election day, but until I see some specific seat pollings or national sentiment on Labor improve, I’m going to keep it as a LNP retain.
As for Chisholm (which I’m going to address in 4 paragraphs):
1) Chinese-Australian antipathy toward Dutton
It’s true that Dutton has made some hawkish comments about China before, and yes, from personal experiences and discussions with members of the community, it’s true that many Chinese Australians are still suspicious of the Liberal party and remember ScoMo’s actions in carelessly inflaming tensions with China (leading to a lot of Anti-Asian assaults towards Chinese Australians regardless of what country they came from; Malaysia, the Mainland, etc.)
HOWEVER, the Liberal party has become more cautious in their approach towards Chinese-Australians after the 2022 elections. I haven’t seen them talk about China in general and many Chinese candidates have been nominated in seats like Tangney, Bennelong and Reid. In addition, cost of living and housing could be bigger issues for Chinese-Australians in 2025 and may influence them to (maybe reluctantly) vote for Liberals over Labor.
For every factor indicating Chinese-Aussies might vote for Labor, there’s another which shows they might vote for the Liberals. They both balance each other out and it muddles up what the general sentiment of Chinese-Australians on the election is like.
2) Potential sophomore bounce for Garland, who is not an “unknown candidate” but rather the MP
My wording by calling Garland a candidate is my bad. Ik Garland is the current MP for Chisholm, but I’ve heard that she’s largely been invisible in her electorate and not many people really know her. On the flip side, I haven’t heard anything positive about Garland either.
3) Katie Allen’s history as a voter loser for the Libs in Higgins, noted often by Nadia88
I haven’t heard much about Katie Allen but if you would post some of Nadia’s quotes about her it’d be appreciated. The only thing I’ve heard about Allen is that she’s more seen in the community, especially around Mount Waverly.
4) the fact that Dutton offered nothing positive about Allen when he opened in Chisholm, a meeting that was a ra-ra event for local volunteers not an attempt to influence the swingers.
I haven’t been watching specific campaign events but I might keep this one in mind when reevaluating Chisholm. However, considering Dutton opened in Chisholm and Liberals have branded Chisholm one of it’s targets, it’s clear they’re confident in gaining this seat.
“Re Bradfield your shift relies too much on “general sentiment,” a euphemism for “the vibe””
As I’ve mentioned time again, I don’t really have much information to use for my predictions on the Teals bc of how localised their races are. As such, what little info and factors I can use to make my decision is often slightly biased at best and partisan slop at worse.
I do admit that I now use vibes when making my predictions now. It’s just that ever since the US election, I’ve gained a pessimistic opinion that voters don’t consider policies but “vibes” (e.g., overall sentiment about cost of living/state of country and their opponent’s charisma) when making their decision on who to vote.
To use the US as an example to help illustrate what I meant by people voting on vibes, even if Trump’s campaign sucked (e.g., became a convicted felon, Jan 6, comments about Puerto Ricans in PA, Project 2025 and his policies on women and minorities), there was an already big negative sentiment on the Democrats due to the poor economy and his various sittings with podcasters managed to show his charisma and portrayed him as a human being. In the end, Trump won the election and there was a massive swing towards him from all demographics like Women, Asians, Blacks, Latinos, Native Americans, etc. It sorta shows how strong the vibes (via negative sentiments and candidate charisma) can be as factors influencing voters rather than policies.
To put my “vibes” consideration in an Aussie context: there’s a negative sentiment on Labor and Albo due to current economic hardships + issues like women’s rights and climate change (the main issues for the Teals) are no longer at the forefront of voter’s minds, but rather cost of living and housing (issues which Liberals are campaigning hard on) I think these vibes plus my aforementioned reasons on why Kapterian is the best candidate for Bradfield will most likely influence people to return to voting for the Liberals.
The only thing that makes me feel that Boele could still win the seat is that she is the most familiar candidate in Bradfield, and that Dutton is still not an endearing candidate even if his campaign and the media has been trying to rehabilitate his image.
“Note “the vibe” is far from uniform, otherwise seat swings would be quite consistent.”
Ik seat swings on the day will be on a seat by seat basis (see: Gilmore, Lyons and McEwen swing to LIBS, massive WA swing to ALP, 0.2% swing to ALP in Parramatta, etc. in 2022), but predicting how each seat will swing is difficult to do and the closest I can gauge how much seats can swing is through state wide/national pollings.
Themunzsays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 5:40 pm
I think his CIA Director would be in his ear within seconds:-)
======================================================
Isn’t John Ratcliffe just a partisan MAGA nutter though?
Themunz
“To paraphrase….. “Pine gap my boy, Pine Gap”
=========================================================
Even if we assume Trump is sane, that makes no sense from Australia’s viewpoint. Pine Gap is used to provide intelligence and satellite comms to the US defence force, which is shared with Australia. But it is not critical to our defence. It is mainly about US defence operations. Likewise North West Cape provides VLF comms to US SSNs in the Indian Ocean. Again, US defence, not Australian.
Arguably, the only nuclear targets in Australia are US facilities. HMAS Stirling probably gets added to the list now we are maintaining US SSNs there.
So we are entering into a defence pact with USA, in order to defend US defence bases in Australia necessitated by the defence pact. Circular reasoning?
Remember how Dolt Dutton demanded the Russian ambassador be kicked out of the country?
Just as well the grown-ups are in charge.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/29/oscar-jenkins-australian-soldier-fighting-ukraine-alive-russia-ntwnfb
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 5:49 pm
Themunzsays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 5:40 pm
I think his CIA Director would be in his ear within seconds:-)
======================================================
Isn’t John Ratcliffe just a partisan MAGA nutter though?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What is important is that the career CIA have no doubt about the value of their/our! facility.
I haven’t heard of McMahon having a drinking problem and, indeed, problems with the grog were a major factor in him replacing Gorton (the Sejanus of the analogy). Our very own Edward St John combined with that Soviet agent of influence, Bertie James to bring Gorton’s behaviour to public attention.
The rumours about McMahon were to do with his sexuality, which is why I mentioned Capri.
We need urgently to get into strongly-armed neutrality.
There is no particular reason to assume that this Trump, or the next one, or the one after that – wouldn’t invade Australia – let alone defend it.
Caligula got a bad press but he was hardly an isolated incident.
Re the steps Dan Andrews fell down. I know someone who died falling backwards from a step ladder.
This was reported in the Guardian earlier today:
“Police have arrested in man in Adelaide after he allegedly displayed a Nazi symbol in central Adelaide while participating in NSN activities on Sunday.
The 29-year-old Victorian man was arrested and charged with two counts of displaying a Nazi symbol, police said. He has been bailed to appear in the Adelaide Magistrates Court on 25 March.”
SA police confirmed at lunchtime that of 14 people arrested for displaying Nazi symbols in the Adelaide protest, 13 out of 14 were from interstate.
So who is organising dozens of far right protestors to travel interstate and create protest scenes that have northing to do with that State? I doubt these 14 people all had the same idea at random.
Boerwar @ #1176 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 5:52 pm
Wow! That’s great news!
Thank goodness Penny Wong is Foreign Minister and not some hyperactive showboating Liberal.
Socrates @ #1181 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 5:57 pm
Soc,
I included this article in today’s Dawn Patrol. It should answer all your questions. 🙂
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/sa/2025/01/28/neo-nazis-march-adelaide
Boerwar
“There is no particular reason to assume that this Trump, or the next one, or the one after that – wouldn’t invade Australia – let alone defend it.”
———————————————————
Agreed. AE, yourself and myself have been arguing this risk for some time. Trump is now demonstrating that that risk is a reality.
I know foreign policy and defence is usually a low priority fpr voters. But I’d really like to know how many voters still think $368 billion on AUKUS is a good use of the money now. I’d be even more interested to know what percentage of centre and left leaning voters still have that view.
I think AUKUS is fast becoming a vote loser for Labor, just as Morrison intended.
Cat
Thanks, sorry missed that one. Obviously the further question is who is funding them?
Socratessays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 6:00 pm
Yes, circumstances have changed, so do we now change our mind?
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 5:53 pm
I haven’t heard of McMahon having a drinking problem and, indeed, problems with the grog were a major factor in him replacing Gorton (the Sejanus of the analogy). Our very own Edward St John combined with that Soviet agent of influence, Bertie James to bring Gorton’s behaviour to public attention.
The rumours about McMahon were to do with his sexuality, which is why I mentioned Capri.
===================================================
Sorry i didn’t mean to imply he had a drinking problem. Just it likely, at posh parties. Like many other politicians. I’m sure he indulged and possibly over indulged at times?. I think he was renown for being clumsy though.
I think he and his wife had a reputation of being socialites. So they were often seen at soiree’s i believe.
Peter C –
This is not my complaint. My complaint is that if you accept that Australia Day events (or any other community event) is a legitimate venue for Tame to “shout” her slogans at us via her t-shirt, then those events necessarily become a venue for all the random aggrieved to “shout” their slogans as well – and you’re not going to like most of them.
An event where everyone in the country is supposed to be able to meet should be a civilized affair where we respect differences and don’t try to trigger those we don’t agree with – that’s basic interpersonal glue. If we can’t respect that then we give up on being able to come together at all, and I suggest that America is a roaring example of what happens if tribal sides only see enemies to be defeated, rather than other humans to tolerate in relative peace.
We’re not talking about “our streets”, we’re talking civic events that are supposed to bring people together, so quit with the straw men.
@Bludgeoned Westie at 5:47pm
From what I recall, Bundaberg was retained by Labor because the LNP were planning to scrap the Paradise Dam project, which seems like it was popular locally.
Sorry i didn’t mean to imply he was a drunk. Just it likely, at posh parties. Like many other politicians. I’m sure he indulged and possibly over indulged at times?.
__________________________________________
While i believe Billy was both clumsy and often drunk. So i would assume fell down many stairs. He was probably protected by Saint Dionysus, the patron saint of drunkenness, when he did so.
___________________________________
Most brazen lie since Bart Simpson’s ‘I didn’t do it’. Trump level lying in fact.
First Dog is not wrong. DeepsSeek is not going to save the world from catastrophe, and may even hasten it, but at least it upsets the Yank tech broligarchy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2025/jan/29/hallucinating-copypaste-plagiarism-robots-are-everywhere-what-a-time-to-be-alive
Grace Tame out of favour now with labor luvvies as she has spent all day bagging “weak” Albanese as she now calls him.
Themunz
I don’t know if we will change our mind, but I hope so.
I get that Labor feared being wedged on defence by AUKUS. But now we risk losing votes on a policy that appears to make us more vulnerable.
Weak or not I can just see the Liberals blaming Albo for Oscar Jenkins still being alive….
Maybe not. I am advised Albo is only responsible for bad things.
Sohar @ #1191 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 6:12 pm
Sohar,
You don’t have to bother trying to seem like an Edgelord by bringing FDOtM cartoons to the blog, I include them every time a new one is published. I also know how to publish them properly. 😐
davesays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 6:11 pm
Sorry i didn’t mean to imply he was a drunk. Just it likely, at posh parties. Like many other politicians. I’m sure he indulged and possibly over indulged at times?.
__________________________________________
While i believe Billy was both clumsy and often drunk. So i would assume fell down many stairs. He was probably protected by Saint Dionysus, the patron saint of drunkenness, when he did so.
___________________________________
Most brazen lie since Bart Simpson’s ‘I didn’t do it’. Trump level lying in fact.
===========================================================
So what did i exactly do to hurt you Dave. Can you point to it on the Dolly for us.
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 6:14 pm
Grace Tame out of favour now with labor luvvies as she has spent all day bagging “weak” Albanese as she now calls him.
_____________________________
It’s all gone a bit pear shaped. Stooges are unsure what to do. Silence is the best approach at the moment.
I have seen and read much about how tariffs on imports to “USA, USA, USA” are actually paid by the “USA, USA, USA” importer. So, if Taiwan makes great chips and “USA, USA, USA” needs these chips then how will that hurt Taiwan?
I must be missing something here.
To quote the great sage…”Please explain”
Socrates @ #1194 Wednesday, January 29th, 2025 – 6:18 pm
And that is exactly the mindset the Coalition want you to have. A defeatist one which looks to the Coalition for their take on a situation and the inbuilt expectation that it will be a negative one wrt the government. Which you will sigh about and get despondent about and maybe even agree with. QED. They win the battle for your mind.