Roy Morgan returned to the field this week with an eye-catching headline result of 53-47 in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but this turned out to be entirely down to an unorthodox set of respondent-allocated preference flows, with the accompanying release relating that Labor’s share from the Greens was down from 85% to 55% from the previous poll. A previous election preferences measure was not provided on this occasion, but such a result assuredly have come in at 50-50. Labor were in fact up three-and-a-half points on the pre-Christmas poll to 31%, with the Coalition down half to 40.5%, the Greens down half to 12% and One Nation down one-and-a-half to 3.5%. The poll was conducted December 30 to January 5 from a sample of 1446.
Also out this week from RedBridge Group was a follow-up report from its recent MRP survey relating to ideological positioning on the customary left-to-right scale. On a ten-point left-to-right scale, 51% rated Labor at very points on the left, 18% had them in the centre and 20% on the right, whereas the Liberals were put on the right by 62%, in the centre by 14% and on the left by 13%. Thirty-one per cent placed themselves in the centre, 23% on the left and 33% on the right. Forty-two per cent either way felt the Liberal Party to be to their right and Labor to be to their left, with 43% rating the Liberal Party’s position similar to their own compared with 39% for Labor.
Vale Sam Moore
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMK80XsOg3k
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 7:25 pm
“William Shatner for mine. 93 and going strong.”
Sure, but when asked by Fox News for the secret of living long, Ernest Borgnine replied, “I masturbate a lot.”
Top that William Shatner!
The secret to long life is being a high court judge.
Friend of PB, Sir Anthony Mason turns 100 this year and Sir William Deane 94.
Plus the last 21 judges appointed going back to Mary Gaudron, appointed in 1986, are all alive.
Some interesting points in this discussion:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/11/electric-v-hybrid-which-car-vehicle-best-buy-2025
The secret to long life is being rich.
“Researchers have found that Americans who make more than $335,000 a year live 14 years longer than the poorest one percent. If you have more than $300,000 in assets, you have a 31 percent greater chance of surviving from ages 65 to 85 than those who have none. In fact, the fourth-greatest “risk factor” for death, according to a study published by the American Medical Association, is being poor”
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/billionaires-death-age-gap-wealth-life-expectancy.html#
Kirsdarke @ #393 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 8:28 pm
How freaking predictable. A Real Estate Agent + a former Police Officer = a Liberal candidate
shellbell @ #406 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 8:59 pm
I bet they all have very soft hands.
“Climate-related extreme weather events will become both more frequent and more violent, resulting in ever-scarcer insurance and ever-higher premiums,” a US Senate report on the insurance market warned just last month. “Climate change is no longer just an environmental problem. It is a looming economic threat.”
100%
Liberal Jing Lee, the deputy leader of the opposition in the Legislative Council and shadow minister for tourism and multicultural affairs in SA, has quit the Liberals to become an independent.
She has just joined the list of Liberal quitters Steven Marshall, David Speirs, John Gardner and David Pisoni. The SA Liberals – the gift that just keeps on giving for Peter Malinauskas.
Rats and sinking ships.
Oakeshott Country @ #407 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 8:57 pm
Having spent most of my 50 clinical years rescuing patients from ED “physicians” (though they didn’t exist when I started Medicine in 1974) I disagree – at least you plumbers knew that you didn’t know & sought help.
Re the NSW Public Psychiatry fiasco – I’m currently doing 14 days (straight) as a locum Physician at Port Lincoln. No onsite Psychiatry for the ~10% of all admissions which are Psych., just telehealth and “takedowns” of rampantly psychotic patients. That is now the situation in the majority of NSW Public Hospitals – back to the 1970s. How do you train Psychiatrists without Staffies?
Rainman @ #405 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 9:08 pm
That makes complete sense for the US. A dog-eat-dog society with a pathetic social safety net.
leftieBrawlersays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 7:59 pm
Rex are you one of those far left sleeper cell actors that have recently been reactivated by a few rotting elements within NSW Labor Left ?
===================================================
Rex i believe lives in Victoria. Possibly this is taking a conspiracy theory a little to far don’t you think?
rhwombat,
What’s your opinion about whether we should re-establish psych institutions, but manage them well this time?
Also, are the psychosis admissions due in large part to Ice consumption?
Entropy @ #415 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 10:12 pm
It’s easy to see how leftieBrawler lost the plot last time. 😐
timbo says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 9:35 pm
That makes complete sense for the US. A dog-eat-dog society with a pathetic social safety net.
———
The Democrats need to take a leaf out of the Sanders playbook, or FDR post Great Depression, and offer and deliver a better deal for ordinary people to stop people flirting with ongoing madness. The same situation, more or less, exists in Australia.
mjsays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:29 pm
timbo says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 9:35 pm
That makes complete sense for the US. A dog-eat-dog society with a pathetic social safety net.
———
The Democrats need to take a leaf out of the Sanders playbook, or FDR post Great Depression, and offer and deliver a better deal for ordinary people to stop people flirting with ongoing madness. The same situation, more or less, exists in Australia.
===================================================
This disparity between life expectancy only really exists for first nations people in Australia. Australia’s life expectancy was 83.20 years (2022), while the USA was much lower at 77.43 years (2022). Which is because in Australia we don’t have the huge wealth disparity in life expectancy you see in the USA. It is only the life expectancy for first nations people, where Australia really needs to lift its game. Something i doubt Dutton would even acknowledge was a problem though.
Let’s not worry about how or why someone lost the plot last time.
At some stage or another some of us have lost the plot or come close to it.
Lifes like that.
No need to exacerbate it.
@Timbo
I suspect you would find similar results in Australia or the UK for that matter if you dig into the stats enough.I know in Glasgow for eg life expectancy in Greater Govan a poor part of town is 65.4 while in affluent Pollokshields west it is 83 life expectancy for Glasgow as a whole is 78.3 so nothing uniquely American going on.
Another copper another day.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/liberals-unveil-werribee-candidate-ahead-of-crucial-byelection-20250111-p5l3iz.html
howlin wolvessays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:43 pm
@Timbo
I suspect you would find similar results in Australia or the UK for that matter if you dig into the stats enough.I know in Glasgow for eg life expectancy in Greater Govan a poor part of town is 65.4 while in affluent Pollokshields west it is 83 so nothing uniquely American going on.
====================================================
Yet the average life expectancy for all of Australia is 83.2 years. Which is the same or slightly higher than affluent suburb in the UK you quote. Which suggests you would not see this in Australia between richer and poorer suburbs to any significant extent. With the notable exception of remote indigenous peoples.
“Australia’s Health Tracker by Socioeconomic Status 2021 (PDF, 834.19 KB) lays bare the dramatic difference in preventable deaths between the top and bottom 20% of income earners, with poorer Australians living up to 6.4 fewer years* than the wealthiest Australians.”
https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/australian-health-tracker-series/wealthy-australians-living-up-to-64-years-longer
This disparity between life expectancy only really exists for first nations people in Australia. Australia’s life expectancy was 83.20 years (2022), while the USA was much lower at 77.43 years (2022). Which is because in Australia we don’t have the huge wealth disparity in life expectancy you see in the USA. It is only the life expectancy for first nations people, where Australia really needs to lift its game. Something i doubt Dutton would even acknowledge was a problem though.
——
Australia has undoubtedly a better social safety net than the USA but it’s increasingly ineffective, many working people increasingly are struggling let alone welfare recipients we’re following down the same neoliberal hellscape path so we’ll be having the same life and health outcomes in 20 years time without a change in course.
The average TPLAC* has a better social safety net than the USA. As far as bars go, it’s not possible to go much lower.
* Tin Pot Little African Country**.
** With apologies to ‘Yes, Minister’.
Leftie nut jobs in Victoria and California etc neglect Basic forest management and then blame the fires on climate change.
It’s a sickness.
”
shellbellsays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 8:59 pm
The secret to long life is being a high court judge.
Friend of PB, Sir Anthony Mason turns 100 this year and Sir William Deane 94.
Plus the last 21 judges appointed going back to Mary Gaudron, appointed in 1986, are all alive.
”
Shellbell
Can’t argue with that. 🙂
“I’m the last chance to reverse Australia’s decline: Dutton
Peter Dutton says the election of a Coalition government this year will be the ‘last chance’ to reverse the economic and social decline of Australia, as he begins his campaigning in 2025 in the Melbourne seat of Chisholm.”
So come up with some real actual policies instead of the same old rhetoric over and over again.
Oppositions are always accused of having no policies.
It is as sure as the sand.
”
Rainmansays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 9:08 pm
The secret to long life is being rich.
“Researchers have found that Americans who make more than $335,000 a year live 14 years longer than the poorest one percent. If you have more than $300,000 in assets, you have a 31 percent greater chance of surviving from ages 65 to 85 than those who have none. In fact, the fourth-greatest “risk factor” for death, according to a study published by the American Medical Association, is being poor”
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/billionaires-death-age-gap-wealth-life-expectancy.html#
”
That is reason Americans are ready to anything, I repeat anything, fair or foul to get rich. No wonder they voted for Trump twice.
steve davis says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 11:32 pm
“I’m the last chance to reverse Australia’s decline: Dutton
Peter Dutton says the election of a Coalition government this year will be the ‘last chance’ to reverse the economic and social decline of Australia, as he begins his campaigning in 2025 in the Melbourne seat of Chisholm.”
So come up with some real actual policies instead of the same old rhetoric over and over again.
_________
When you go the hyperbole like that, it can sound a bit desperate. Dutton has time to refine the pitch of course.
Edit: I see it is from The Australian. I like this quote “A newly elected Coalition government is a last chance to reverse the decline.” Is Dutton referring to our national debt? Or maybe the S3 tax cuts to the wealthy? 🙂
”
Rainmansays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:59 pm
“Australia’s Health Tracker by Socioeconomic Status 2021 (PDF, 834.19 KB) lays bare the dramatic difference in preventable deaths between the top and bottom 20% of income earners, with poorer Australians living up to 6.4 fewer years* than the wealthiest Australians.”
https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/australian-health-tracker-series/wealthy-australians-living-up-to-64-years-longer
”
Rainman
There is saying: A distant mountain looks smooth.
OC
The quickest way to kill a healthy patient is to admit them under orthopaedics.
Wombat
I think mental health is appalling in all states. I saw a comment that that NSW psychiatrists fiasco is just the first to hit the fan. The rest will follow with the way health is going. SA had a bunch of psychiatrists quit but they weren’t coming back and it wasn’t in these numbers.
pied piper says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 11:24 pm
Leftie nut jobs in Victoria and California etc neglect Basic forest management and then blame the fires on climate change.
It’s a sickness.
———
California has had a couple of wet winters in a row and now a very dry start to this winter and a powerful Santa Ana, offshore wind event. So you’ve got a heavy fuel load and unfavourable current weather conditions fuelling this situation.
You cannot isolate one event as necessarily being a result of climate change. However fires will and are becoming more common with a warming climate and to dismiss it as a political fixation only outlines your own thinking which is purely political and not evidence based.
In Adelaide, there is a 10 year life expectancy gap between two suburbs that are 20 minutes drive from each other.
We are no better than the Americans.
A life expectancy gap between adjacent suburbs can be explained by statistical deviation. It’s when there’s a consistent pattern, that we need to look for causes.
Edit: I mean, we can’t expect every suburb to be the same on every measure. Just by pure chance we would expect differences.
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 11:59 pm
A life expectancy gap between adjacent suburbs can be explained by statistical deviation, It’s when there’s a consistent pattern, that we need to look for causes.
———
Seems like a very cold way to look at it. Diogenes wasn’t referring to adjacent suburbs either.
Going off topic from tonight’s discussions.
I like living in a federation of States. Federal politics dominates the discussion in this place but my life has benefited most from living in the great Labor State of SA – from Dunstan to Malinauskas.
I laugh when people joke about Adelaide. The jokers have either never been here or are part of the plan to keep this place a secret.
mj,
Okay, maybe they weren’t adjacent, but you know what I mean.
Okay, maybe you don’t.
Try this…
If you choose a few suburbs at random and look at, for example, their average life expectancy, it would be pretty odd if they were all the same. Just by natural variation you would expect some to be above average and some below.
So you have to look a bit deeper to see if there’s really a meaningful pattern.
@Entropy
That is an affluent burrough in Glasgow probably not that affluent by broader UK standards. UK life expectancy is 81.92 about the same as Australia.
What would your guess be for life expectancy in say Mt Druitt vs Bellevue Hill?My guess would be about 65 vs 87 something like that.
I’ve always liked Adelaide, it’s got a good vibe. Can we force immigrants to move there? There are too many to absorb properly in Perth atm.
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 11:59 pm
A life expectancy gap between adjacent suburbs can be explained by statistical deviation. It’s when there’s a consistent pattern, that we need to look for causes.
************************************
Point one: I’m pretty sure you’re not a health statistician.
Point two: I’m pretty sure there is a consistent pattern and the causes are well known.
“In general, people from poorer social or economic circumstances are at greater risk of poor health, have higher rates of illness, disability and death, and live shorter lives than those who are more advantaged (Mackenbach 2015). Generally, every step up the socioeconomic ladder is accompanied by an increase in health.”
https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/11ada76c-0572-4d01-93f4-d96ac6008a95/ah16-4-1-social-determinants-health.pdf.aspx#
“Those within lower socio economic indexes for areas reported higher levels of Heart, stroke and vascular diseases, diabetes and arthritis than those in higher socio economic indexes for areas”
https://povertyandinequality.acoss.org.au/category/inequality/health/
I’m guessing pied piper has never fought a wild fire in his/her/its life.
Rainman,
You are correct, of course, on both those points. Poverty shortens life expectancy, or, wealth increases it. That’s bleeding obvious.
I was trying to say that you can’t just compare two suburbs and take that as proof. Doing that is anecdotal evidence, which we all know is not really evidence at all.
I suppose I was just doing a year 10 clear thinking exercise.
Ante Meridian,
Ok. Fair enough. I apologise if I misunderstood what you were saying.
Oh no not another surplus https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/labor-set-for-third-consecutive-budget-surplus-ahead-of-federal-election/ar-BB1rh4HT?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ACTS&cvid=cfa4ac9155e04786be94c983f44b9cb6&ei=15
No worries, Rainman.
Wealthy people live longer healthier lives than poor people simple as that.Where the gap seems to be really big is between the wealthy and what we might call the underclass like a council estate in Glasgow..
My guess is people around median wealth levels probably only live about six years less than the very wealthy.Probably like 81 vs 87 it would be among that bottom 10-15% you would see a big gap.
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 11:18 pm
The average TPLAC* has a better social safety net than the USA. As far as bars go, it’s not possible to go much lower.
* Tin Pot Little African Country**.
** With apologies to ‘Yes, Minister’.
_______________
Perhaps call them HRRC – Human Resource Rich Countries
With even more apologies to YM
Dr. F.,
If I knew how to do emojis, there’d be one here with a big grin.
Ok here we go took five minutes on google.According to research conducted by Torrens University in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs of Camberwell and Surrey Hills average life expectancy is 88 while in the western Suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park located a similar distance from the cbd it’s 71.
In Brisbane in the suburbs of North Lakes and Mango Hill it was 84 while in Springfield lakes a similar distance from the cbd it was 57 only slightly higher than Alice Springs at 54.Easy to find the whole thing on google for anyone interested in this kind of thing.
We all appear to have out lived Alice Springs.