Miscellany: election timing, Morgan poll and preselection news (open thread)

The Liberals gear up for a preselection on Saturday in the Sydney seat of Bradfield, a former stronghold where a teal independent is now in the mix.

Writing in the News Corp papers, Phillip Hudson of Bondi Partners summarises the election date situation so I don’t have to:

The first choice the PM needs to make is whether to allow parliament to go ahead as scheduled for the first two weeks of February or to visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn to call the election … Might Albanese break convention and surprise us all by ending the guessing game — and catching almost everybody off guard — by calling an unlikely poll in mid-January for February 22? … The attraction of a March election is made difficult by the Western Australian state election scheduled for March 8, which is also a long weekend in the southern half of the country, while March 15 clashes with the Formula 1 Grand Prix. March 29 and April 5 are a possibility, especially if there’s a February rate cut. April 12 is emerging as a red hot option as the WA election would be over on the weekend it needs to be called. That scenario would allow for parliament to be dissolved without having a budget … If he waits any longer he will have to deliver another budget as there’s no chance of an election on April 19 or 26 due to a later than usual Easter then Anzac Day commemorations. The final window is May 3, 10 or 17.

Also of note:

• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 51.5-48.5, in from a 53-47 blowout last week that was entirely due to an aberrant result on respondent-allocated preferences from Greens voters. Labor is in fact down a point on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition steady on 40.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5%, and One Nation up one to 4.5%. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows is 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1721.

• A keenly fought Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday to choose a successor to Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield, where the party is under pressure from teal independent Nicolette Boele. This is largely shaping up as a battle between moderates who favour Gisele Kapterian, international trade lawyer and former staffer to Julie Bishop, and conservative backing Warren Mundine, who among other things was one of two Indigenous spearheads in the campaign against the October 2023 Voice referendum, together with Senator Jacinta Price. Kapterian’s backers include Joe Hockey, Nick Greiner, Barry O’Farrell, Gladys Berejiklian and Sussan Ley. Mundine has been endorsed by Tony Abbott, John Anderson and Jacinta Price, but faces the difficulty of being 68. Also contesting the preselection are local councillor Barbara Ward and cardiologist Michael Feneley.

• The Nationals have announced that their candidate for Hunter is Sue Gilroy, registered nurse, founder of a business coaching company and past candidate for Shooters Fishers and Farmers. The seat is held for Labor by Dan Repacholi on a post-redistribution margin of 4.9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,634 comments on “Miscellany: election timing, Morgan poll and preselection news (open thread)”

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  1. Well, if I am to understand things correctly, BK has not telegraphed his return to the Dawn Patrol as of yet. So I will be back on deck tomorrow in his stead. See you round like a rissole! 😀


  2. pied pipersays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:36 pm
    Israel won Iran lost ,Palestinians like Lebanese etc are pawns.

    Iran in big big trouble nothing stopping Trump going them big time.

    It looks PP wants WW3. What a horrible horrible person PP is
    Why I am saying that.

    If Trump goes big time against Iran, he has to contend with BRICS especially Russia because Russia and Iran have security pact.
    And if Putin gets involved in a war with USA, then that will be WW3.
    Why is PP is such a mindless robot?
    PP wants a full blown war with China and Russia. What a stupid idiot PP is?

  3. Probably already picked up but looks like Tiktok is offline in the US ahead of the ban.

    Albo was asked about it and apparently stated no ban was on the cards here.

    At least we have the ban for the kids coming, though would prefer we banned both US and China gov aligned platforms.


  4. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:40 pm
    Israel stated war aims were to dismantle and Hamas and “prevent terror” and have its hostages returned.

    It has ended with :

    1) Hamas in full control of Gaza
    2) Massive reputational damage internationally to Israel
    3) return of the remaining live and dead hostages
    4) Releases of thousands of Palestinian prisoners
    5) Something like 50,000 dead Palestinians

    By Israel’s own measures its a clear defeat. Commentators as diverse as Daniel Pipes (uber conservative) and John Mearsheimer (realist) have called it a defeat.

    The war did not end. It is just a ceasefire. A ceasefire can be broken anytime especially with Trump in WH.

  5. Donald Trump has said that there will be no more wind turbines built under his presidency- not one.

    All the broken down ones and ones that no longer work properly will not be replaced. Also, subsidies given for wind turbines will cease.

    Trump intends to lower inflation by making the cost of energy cheaper again.

    Good onya Donald, go get ’em!

  6. Davidwh:

    C@t and Yabba travel from regional NSW and meher baba comes from offshore Tasmania! These are not insurmountable challenges 🙂

  7. If Trump is successful in ending the war in the Middle East, and everybody of sane mind would be hoping for just that, Trump would have achieved more on his first day as President than Biden in four years.

    Hmm, maybe the American people were not too wrong in choosing the right president?

  8. Confessions says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 10:10 pm

    Davidwh:

    C@t and Yabba travel from regional NSW and meher baba comes from offshore Tasmania! These are not insurmountable challenges
    ___________________

    With the added bonus if Dutton wins then entire lunch can be a tax write off for someone – just call it a client meeting


  9. mjsays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 9:44 pm
    Open your eyes Ven

    mj
    My eyes are wide open after Trump got elected in November, 2024. I am a person who is like a child , who realises for the first time that there is no Santa Claus.
    It appears it is you whose “eyes are wide shut”.

  10. I had a steak once at Guillames at the opera house. $300 for medium rare 200gm wagyu.
    I like Guillame and enjoy his Tour De France snippets, but that was a bit much.
    I can, and do, better on my Weber.


  11. mjsays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 10:15 pm
    Pollbludger cares about esoteric stuff, it doesnt resonate with ordinary voters

    I agree with that.

  12. LOL I’m seeing tennis in my sleep I’ve watched that much of it in the last week.

    I’ll admit that I have backed Zverev to win the tournament and I am not that happy with his form at present, even though he’s only dropped the one set thus far. C’mon Sascha LIFT.

    Another player that I don’t think is going as well as last year is Sinner, he might be lucky to make the semis in my opinion.

    It could be a bad day for the Aussies tomorrow, I think Alex De Minaur will go down, I’ve already backed Alex Michelsen to beat him…

  13. meher babasays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:17 pm
    Re Peter C. I’m pretty sure he used to post here before under a different name. He used to have a go at me back then too.
    _____________________
    A stab in the dark. GG ?

  14. Taylormadesays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 10:39 pm
    meher babasays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:17 pm
    Re Peter C. I’m pretty sure he used to post here before under a different name. He used to have a go at me back then too.
    _____________________
    A stab in the dark. GG ?
    _____________
    Nah. He is Observer.

  15. Centresays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 10:30 pm
    LOL I’m seeing tennis in my sleep I’ve watched that much of it in the last week.
    _____________________
    Same.
    Have you watched anyone play with a single handed backhand ?
    I haven’t.
    There must still be some on tour, but just not on TV.

  16. davidwhsays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 10:48 pm
    Best single handed backhand in men’s tennis Ken Rosewall.
    _____________________
    A bit before my time, but there have many been good ones since I have been watching tennis. It’s a thing of beauty.
    Gasquet, Wawrinka, Justine Henin, Federer, Boris Becker, Pat Rafter,
    Sampras, Edberg.
    I am a single hander. Double handed just feels terrible.
    But it must be what they are teaching the juniors these days.

  17. Centresays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 10:49 pm
    Taylormade
    It’s like the old serve and volley, it doesn’t happen anymore lol
    _____________________
    Yep.
    1980 Wimbledon Final.
    Borg v McEnroe.
    34 point tie break for the 4th set won by McEnroe to take it to 5.
    Tennis will never get any better than that.
    It’s on YouTube.

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