Miscellany: election timing, Morgan poll and preselection news (open thread)

The Liberals gear up for a preselection on Saturday in the Sydney seat of Bradfield, a former stronghold where a teal independent is now in the mix.

Writing in the News Corp papers, Phillip Hudson of Bondi Partners summarises the election date situation so I don’t have to:

The first choice the PM needs to make is whether to allow parliament to go ahead as scheduled for the first two weeks of February or to visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn to call the election … Might Albanese break convention and surprise us all by ending the guessing game — and catching almost everybody off guard — by calling an unlikely poll in mid-January for February 22? … The attraction of a March election is made difficult by the Western Australian state election scheduled for March 8, which is also a long weekend in the southern half of the country, while March 15 clashes with the Formula 1 Grand Prix. March 29 and April 5 are a possibility, especially if there’s a February rate cut. April 12 is emerging as a red hot option as the WA election would be over on the weekend it needs to be called. That scenario would allow for parliament to be dissolved without having a budget … If he waits any longer he will have to deliver another budget as there’s no chance of an election on April 19 or 26 due to a later than usual Easter then Anzac Day commemorations. The final window is May 3, 10 or 17.

Also of note:

• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 51.5-48.5, in from a 53-47 blowout last week that was entirely due to an aberrant result on respondent-allocated preferences from Greens voters. Labor is in fact down a point on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition steady on 40.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5%, and One Nation up one to 4.5%. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows is 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1721.

• A keenly fought Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday to choose a successor to Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield, where the party is under pressure from teal independent Nicolette Boele. This is largely shaping up as a battle between moderates who favour Gisele Kapterian, international trade lawyer and former staffer to Julie Bishop, and conservative backing Warren Mundine, who among other things was one of two Indigenous spearheads in the campaign against the October 2023 Voice referendum, together with Senator Jacinta Price. Kapterian’s backers include Joe Hockey, Nick Greiner, Barry O’Farrell, Gladys Berejiklian and Sussan Ley. Mundine has been endorsed by Tony Abbott, John Anderson and Jacinta Price, but faces the difficulty of being 68. Also contesting the preselection are local councillor Barbara Ward and cardiologist Michael Feneley.

• The Nationals have announced that their candidate for Hunter is Sue Gilroy, registered nurse, founder of a business coaching company and past candidate for Shooters Fishers and Farmers. The seat is held for Labor by Dan Repacholi on a post-redistribution margin of 4.9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,634 comments on “Miscellany: election timing, Morgan poll and preselection news (open thread)”

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  1. Hamas has released the names of the three Israeli hostages to be released Sunday, the militant group and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said, following a delay of more than two hours to the expected start of the ceasefire. The hostages’ names are not immediately clear. Earlier Sunday, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said that Israel does not consider the ceasefire to be in effect until Hamas identifies the initial hostages it intends to release.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/19/israel-war-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-news-hamas/

    Jesus christ, fkn Hamas. They put the ceasefire deal in jeopardy by not upholding their part of the bargain, for reasons unknown.

    Seriously, this is bullshit. The whole world is wanting this ceasefire to take hold and last. Everyone it would seem but Hamas.

  2. After countless thousands of death and misery, the first 3 Israeli hostages to be released have been named.

    The Hamas terror group says in a statement that it will be releasing hostages Romi Gonen, Emily Damari and Doron Steinbrecher today.

    Israel has not yet confirmed the names on the list.

    The three civilian women were taken hostage on October 7, 2023, during the Hamas onslaught in which some 1,200 people were killed and 251 kidnapped to Gaza.

    Gonen was taken from the Nova festival on October 7, 2023, while Damari, a dual UK citizen, and Steinbrecher were kidnapped from their homes in Kibbutz Kfar Aza.

    Meanwhile Gazans are starting to return north through devastation.

  3. mj still running the same old ‘Same Old, Same Old’ Big Lie.
    It worked for the Greens for nine years.

    Until it didn’t.

    Dutton wants to suppress wages.
    Albanese has raised wages – particular base grade wages in feminized industries.
    Dutton wants to suppress climate action.
    Albanese is delivering 43/30.
    Dutton wants to treat China with racist contempt.
    Albanese has repaired relations with China.
    Dutton wants more women to run as Liberal candidates and then sits on his duff while six out of seven winnable electorates go to men
    Albanese has delivered a huge suite of wins for women.

  4. Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 7:47 pm

    Speaking of moderate liberals, I’ve used some of my birthday money to buy a copy of the biography of Victorian Premier Dick Hamer.

    Despite the fact that he was Premier for 9 years I barely know anything about him, yet he was quite progressive for a Liberal (as opposed to figures like Bolte and Rylah) and also was popular enough to comfortably win 3 elections in a row in 1973, 76 and 79. So I’m curious as to what he was all about.
    ______________________

    Our local Lions club bookshop is a great place for old political biographies, last time I was there picked up a Bill Hayden volume but plenty of other characters like Phil lynch, Bill Snedden and various others including the more contemporary.

    Best part is the price with nothing over $5

  5. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:05 pm
    …’
    ===============
    I speculate that:
    1. Hamas is fractured on the ground and may not be able to deliver names at the drop of a hat.
    2. Hamas is extremely wary of communicating one with another, thereby giving the IDF Hamas comms traffic.
    3. Netanyahu is presenting as ultra-aggressive because he has NOT achieved any of his stated war objectives (yet) AND he is under threat from the ultra orthodox minor parties represented in his Cabinet.
    I don’t know. Just guessing.

  6. ‘Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:07 pm

    Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 7:47 pm

    Speaking of moderate liberals, I’ve used some of my birthday money to buy a copy of the biography of Victorian Premier Dick Hamer.’
    ================
    I met Dick once, probably around 1965. He was avuncular. Refreshing after Bolte!

  7. Fess
    Different interpretations.
    The ABC tonight reported that Bibi did have the names but Hamas were unable to mobilise the hostages because of the strength of the bombardment, as Israel was having one last go at reducing the number of live Palestinians

  8. Dutton giving tax breaks for wealthy people to have piss ups while scoffing at the top table while poor people suffer COL pressures?
    NFI. Tin ear.

  9. Confessions @ #1575 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 7:43 pm

    The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office has announced that the ceasefire in Gaza will begin at 11:15 a.m. local time, which is in a few minutes.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/19/israel-war-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-news-hamas/

    Honestly surprised they didn’t delay it until the 20th. Maybe that was too on-the-nose and the political play was successful anyway. They got what they wanted in the long game.

  10. Re Peter C. I’m pretty sure he used to post here before under a different name. He used to have a go at me back then too.

    I personally don’t mind a little bit of rough and tumble if it’s about ideas rather than just ad hominem attacks. I try not to be rude to people who haven’t been rude to me first. Entropy, sorry I offended you by calling your ideas delusional. I trust you’ll get over it.

    Back to Peter C. My only problem with him is that, although half the time I can’t understand what he’s on about, there does seem to be some sort of boasting going on about how well off he is, which is a little bit boorish in my book.

  11. BW I’ve always thought the Liberals will be worse, however Labor is not performing well so just describe things as I see them. Labor currently is ineffective in addressing full on crises like the cost of housing, further Labor does not know how to create a narrative as to what it is achieving, it likes to go down your route of listicles that doesn’t give any sense they wish to achieve anything for ordinary people other than ad material to win re-election.

  12. Wat Tyler @ #1560 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 8:17 pm

    Confessions @ #1575 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 7:43 pm

    The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office has announced that the ceasefire in Gaza will begin at 11:15 a.m. local time, which is in a few minutes.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/19/israel-war-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-news-hamas/

    Honestly surprised they didn’t delay it until the 20th. Maybe that was too on-the-nose and the political play was successful anyway. They got what they wanted in the long game.

    I think it would’ve been too obvious given Biden had been working at this for some time.

    Then again, Netanyahu is of the Trump ilk and clearly doesn’t care what people think of his actions.

  13. Wat
    IMO Netanyahu did not get what he wanted. He is negotiating with Hamas. The destruction of Hamas was his No 1 war goal. The Gazans are till in Gaza. Another failure for the genocidal elements in the Israeli Government. He could only get the hostages back through negotiation and through the release of over 700 prisoners.
    Aside from that not a single substantial drivers of this kinetic episode of the Forever War have been resolved in the negotiations.
    For these reasons I am cautiously pessimistic that the War will recommence in six week’s time. If not before.

  14. @Dr Fumbles McStupid

    That’s nice, although out here there’s less copies of the books I want that are floating around, I haven’t had luck in hunting this one down in Ballarat’s 2nd hand book shops so I got one online for a good deal.

    Nonetheless, I’m hoping to attend the Clunes Booktown Festival in March and get what I can from there, particularly ones relating to prominent Victorian politicians. Books on John Cain Sr. and Albert Dunstan would be great to get a hold of because I’m very curious about how the Country-Labor alliance held from 1935-45.

  15. Nobody wins such a horrible war of attrition.
    That said, hamas can probably claim the terrible spoils.
    Sure, their leadership has been wiped out, but so what?
    There’ll always be another, then another, to pick up the reins.
    It’s like whack a mole with these guys, kill one and another will fill the void.
    Israel has lost, the poor innocent children have lost and around we go again until somehow leaders with vision are found to one day end this horrific mess
    Netanyahu is not that leader, he has to go.

  16. sprocket_ @ #1435 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 1:04 pm

    Maybe Bruce Lehrmann is consulting with Dutton on policy.

    This was the ‘business lunch’ Ch7 Spotlight paid whilst smooching him for the story…

    What the actual heck? A $360 steak?

    I suppose it’s one shared between 4 people but that’s $90 per person. Yeesh, rich people are like aliens at times.

  17. He got exactly what he wanted. Trump in the White House. Now, after the next provocation from Hamas, he is free to do whatever he wants and will have, contrary to the idiotic “Genocide Joe” rhetoric, the friendliest US Administration to their goals (who are connected to vested interests in developing Gaza land.) In the short term, it may have been a stalemate but, in the long term, he’s set himself up nicely.

  18. The ABC tonight reported

    I know this is sacrilege and I hear frowning disapproval from my parents every time I mention this in either of their presence, but I no longer have faith in the reporting by the ABC.

    The ABC has been gutted in resource terms and at an editorial level. I will source news from a range of outlets, including X (it still does breaking news well) and Bluesky, the Washington Post, SMH , Bulwark, Atlantic, and Guardian, but sad to say, I don’t feel confident relying on the ABC in the way I once would have in years past, as an authoritative news source.

  19. Israel won Iran lost ,Palestinians like Lebanese etc are pawns.

    Iran in big big trouble nothing stopping Trump going them big time.

  20. Israel stated war aims were to dismantle and Hamas and “prevent terror” and have its hostages returned.

    It has ended with :

    1) Hamas in full control of Gaza
    2) Massive reputational damage internationally to Israel
    3) return of the remaining live and dead hostages
    4) Releases of thousands of Palestinian prisoners
    5) Something like 50,000 dead Palestinians

    By Israel’s own measures its a clear defeat. Commentators as diverse as Daniel Pipes (uber conservative) and John Mearsheimer (realist) have called it a defeat.

  21. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:29 pm

    I presume that the business lunch tax deduction ‘policy’ is a bribe aimed squarely at Teal seats.’
    ===================
    Yep. Two own goals in one go, IMO.

    The Teals got up on the vote of people who were pissed off about corruption. What could be more corrupt than giving tax breaks to the cigars, whiskey and gluttonous ones when people are suffering hardship?

    Nor is this going to go down well in the outer suburban electorates that he is trying to collar.

  22. The long-anticipated ceasefire deal has officially come into effect. The first three hostages to be released by Hamas have been named as Doron Steinbrecher, 31, and dual British-Israeli Emily Damari, 28, who were kidnapped from their kibbutz, and Romi Gonen, 24, who was taken from the Supernova Festival in October 2023. They are expected to be released later today.

    “According to the plan for the release of the hostages, the ceasefire for phase one in Gaza will come into effect at 11:15 local time (09:15 GMT),” a statement from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office read.

    The ceasefire deal comes in three stages. In the first stage of the ceasefire deal, 33 hostages are set to be released over six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. The remainder are to be released in a second phase. The 98 hostages – some of whom are believed to be dead – include four people taken hostage in 2014 and 2015.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jan/19/israel-gaza-ceasefire-live-news-updates

    Let’s see how it goes. Plenty of wriggle room for either party to claim the other isn’t upholding their end of the deal. But this is a start.

  23. meher babasays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:17 pm
    Re Peter C. I’m pretty sure he used to post here before under a different name. He used to have a go at me back then too.

    I personally don’t mind a little bit of rough and tumble if it’s about ideas rather than just ad hominem attacks. I try not to be rude to people who haven’t been rude to me first. Entropy, sorry I offended you by calling your ideas delusional. I trust you’ll get over it.
    =====================================================

    That’s fine. I thought the list of offences of Vlad listed for Peter C fairly mild too. I’m sure i’ve possibly used most at times when arguing with someone i was in a disagreement with too.

    As far as finding the idea of someone talking about how well there done being boorish. Possibly it is, but it is hardly an offensive political ideological position. It is not something that really should be causing the degree of triggering it seems to do to some.

  24. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:44 pm

    The long-anticipated ceasefire deal has officially come into effect. The first three hostages to be released by Hamas have been named as Doron Steinbrecher, 31, and dual British-Israeli Emily Damari, 28, who were kidnapped from their kibbutz, and Romi Gonen, 24, who was taken from the Supernova Festival in October 2023. They are expected to be released later today.

    “According to the plan for the release of the hostages, the ceasefire for phase one in Gaza will come into effect at 11:15 local time (09:15 GMT),” a statement from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office read.

    The ceasefire deal comes in three stages. In the first stage of the ceasefire deal, 33 hostages are set to be released over six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. The remainder are to be released in a second phase. The 98 hostages – some of whom are believed to be dead – include four people taken hostage in 2014 and 2015.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jan/19/israel-gaza-ceasefire-live-news-updates

    Let’s see how it goes. Plenty of wriggle room for either party to claim the other isn’t upholding their end of the deal. But this is a start.’
    ==============
    Neither would have the smallest compunction about kicking things off again when so desired. They are in a Forever War. They all know it.

  25. Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:22 pm

    @Dr Fumbles McStupid

    That’s nice, although out here there’s less copies of the books I want that are floating around, I haven’t had luck in hunting this one down in Ballarat’s 2nd hand book shops so I got one online for a good deal.

    Nonetheless, I’m hoping to attend the Clunes Booktown Festival in March and get what I can from there, particularly ones relating to prominent Victorian politicians. Books on John Cain Sr. and Albert Dunstan would be great to get a hold of because I’m very curious about how the Country-Labor alliance held from 1935-45.
    __________________________

    Tell you what, will have a look tomorrow for anything, have not been in for a while so you never know. I am only half hour from Clunes and will be going there in March too

  26. mj

    Nice try at the old verbal judo crap.

    If you disagree with the substance of my observations:

    1. Show me where you have heartily praised Labor for its success. You just don’t do it.
    2. Show me where you consistently and systematically criticize the Liberals. You just don’t do it.
    3. Show me where you don’t routinely pair Labor with the Liberals. You nearly always include a pairing in your little homilies.

  27. Economist Magazine Forecast

    How many seats will the Liberal-National
    Coalition win in the next Australian House of
    Representatives elections?
    A majority
    22%
    A plurality
    36%
    Neither a majority nor a plurality
    42%

  28. Well labor we’re up 57-43 they are a rabble so an honest person would be going after this failure of a federal government.

    Slagging labor is an act of normalcy given the ongoing pathetic performance of the failing rabble masquerading as the labor federal government.

    Watch Trump diss stupid Rudd!

  29. I remember sitting through an interminable diary management system for a whole day back in the 90s, whilst the training and management tax write off was in full swing.
    At the end of the day, I remember saying to my manager at the time, “well, at least I got a free diary out of it.”
    No he said, “that was a $10,000 diary.”
    Good times.


  30. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:06 pm
    mj still running the same old ‘Same Old, Same Old’ Big Lie.
    It worked for the Greens for nine years.

    Until it didn’t.

    Dutton wants to suppress wages.
    Albanese has raised wages – particular base grade wages in feminized industries.
    Dutton wants to suppress climate action.
    Albanese is delivering 43/30.
    Dutton wants to treat China with racist contempt.
    Albanese has repaired relations with China.
    Dutton wants more women to run as Liberal candidates and then sits on his duff while six out of seven winnable electorates go to men
    Albanese has delivered a huge suite of wins for women.

    It is a lie if any one say that ALP &LNP are ‘same, same’. Yes, this ALP government is probably the most right-wing ALP government. But the overtone window is moved to almost far-right by LNP and Australian media in last 20 out of 28 years.

  31. The Israeli far-right party Otzma Yehudit has left the coalition in protest against the agreement with Hamas. Three ministers have resigned, The Times of Israel reports.
    Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security), Amichai Eliyahu (Heritage), and Yitzhak Wasserlauf (Negev, Galilee, and National Resilience) have submitted their resignations. By doing so, they have left the coalition government led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
    “From this time onwards, the Otzma Yehudit party is not a member of the coalition,” the party’s statement reads.
    The leader of Otzma Yehudit, Itamar Ben-Gvir, declared that the ceasefire agreement with Hamas represents a “complete victory for terrorism.” In a letter to Netanyahu, he emphasized that the far-right party “does not intend to topple the government but will vote on ideological matters according to its worldview.” “We will not return to the government table without a total victory over Hamas and the complete fulfillment of the war’s objectives,” Ben-Gvir added.
    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/three-israeli-ministers-quit-in-protest-of-1737280550.html

  32. Well I got a perfectly good Singer Sewing Machine at the local auction today for $3 and a Mah Jong set for $8 so I, as a not wealthy person, am very happy, especially considering it is my birthday next week. 😀


  33. mjsays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:53 pm
    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:45 pm

    =============
    I don’t care about your motivation. By their deeds ye shall know them.

    You consistently slag Labor.

    You never say anything positive about Labor. Ever.

    You leave the Liberals alone except when you are bracketing Labor with the Liberals.

    This song sheet of yours never, ever varies.

    It is the same old tired bullshit that the Greens served up for nine years.

    It won’t wash now because Albanese is not Dutton in any number of big ways. You are flat out trying to sell a Big Lie with your same old, same old crap

    ———

    Ok believe what you want

    I will believe the facts. Unfortunately, It appears you believe what you want.
    As A_E explained in an earlier post, It appears that Greens political party want the destruction of ALP even if it leads to prolong LNP rule and destruction of this country in the process. If Greens political party believes that it will rise from those ashes like Phoenix, tell them they are dreaming.

  34. I don’t think the Greens want the destruction of Labor just to take sufficient votes off Labor to enable them to materially influence policy and legislation. The aim of most political parties is to take votes off other parties wherever they can.


  35. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 9:30 pm
    I love that, Ven. The Overtone Window.

    C@tmomma
    You know what is not funny. LNP getting away with horrible governance (If what they do is governance) both in government and in opposition by the media.
    And ALP getting bagged by the likes of ‘you-know-who’ on PB both in government and in opposition.

    As I posted, if people who voted for ALP/ preferenced them above LNP in 2022 want to vote for LNP/ or preference them above ALP in 2025, then that act is moving from the realm of decency to realm of POS.

  36. Ven @ #1598 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 9:47 pm


    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 9:30 pm
    I love that, Ven. The Overtone Window.

    C@tmomma
    You know what is not funny. LNP getting away with horrible governance (If what they do is governance) both in government and in opposition by the media.
    And ALP getting bagged by the likes of ‘you-know-who’ on PB both in government and in opposition.

    As I posted, if people who voted for ALP/ preferenced them above LNP in 2022 want to vote for LNP/ or preference them above ALP in 2025, then that act is moving from the realm of decency to realm of POS.

    Ven, I think we have to get used to certain people here who will always find a way to bag Labor. Anthony Albanese could be a modern day cross between Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Ghandi and they’d still find something to complain about!

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