Roy Morgan returned to the field this week with an eye-catching headline result of 53-47 in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but this turned out to be entirely down to an unorthodox set of respondent-allocated preference flows, with the accompanying release relating that Labor’s share from the Greens was down from 85% to 55% from the previous poll. A previous election preferences measure was not provided on this occasion, but such a result assuredly have come in at 50-50. Labor were in fact up three-and-a-half points on the pre-Christmas poll to 31%, with the Coalition down half to 40.5%, the Greens down half to 12% and One Nation down one-and-a-half to 3.5%. The poll was conducted December 30 to January 5 from a sample of 1446.
Also out this week from RedBridge Group was a follow-up report from its recent MRP survey relating to ideological positioning on the customary left-to-right scale. On a ten-point left-to-right scale, 51% rated Labor at very points on the left, 18% had them in the centre and 20% on the right, whereas the Liberals were put on the right by 62%, in the centre by 14% and on the left by 13%. Thirty-one per cent placed themselves in the centre, 23% on the left and 33% on the right. Forty-two per cent either way felt the Liberal Party to be to their right and Labor to be to their left, with 43% rating the Liberal Party’s position similar to their own compared with 39% for Labor.
Good Morning Bludgers! 🙂
paul A, he’s such a card!
That guy is such a predictable FRNJ. Wind him up and let him go with the latest Anti Left agit prop. 😐
Okay, onwards and upwards with the Dawn Patrol, unless I missed something from BK?
And no, Democracy Sausage and Vladimir, Saint nadia of the 88 hasn’t been hounded off the site (amazing how she gets all the bouquets and all I get is brickbats after just as much ‘hounding’ 🙄 ), she has merely taken one of her usual sabbaticals until the polls start coming in again. Situation normal guys!
Anyhoo, it’s off to walk the dog then get stuck into the Saturday Dawn Patrol, which hopefully has some meat to it as we get back to normal. Peace! 🙂
Donald Trump has been sentenced for covering up hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels.
The incoming president tried to get the sentencing quashed in the Supreme Court but to no avail. He reasserted his innocence in court while online his fury bubbled over where he called the case a “scam,” and a “hoax,” which would be appealed.
Last May, he was convicted on 34 charges of falsifying business records to hide payments to Ms Daniels prior to the 2016 election.
As expected, the judge gave Mr Trump an unconditional discharge on all 34 charges. That means that while Mr Trump is guilty and is a felon he will not receive a fine or any jail time. Mr Trump’s lawyers confirmed the sentence would be appealed.
Trump can still vote after sentencing, but can’t own a gun and will have to turn over DNA sample: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/01/10/nation/trump-hush-money-sentencing-impacts/
The US has announced an increased $25m (£20.4m) reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on the day he was sworn in for a third six-year term in office.
The inauguration ceremony was overshadowed by recrimination from the international community and Venezuelan opposition leaders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g9ezyw0keo
NATO takes control from US of air defenses in Poland crucial to supporting Ukraine days before Trump takes office: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/09/politics/nato-air-defenses-poland-ukraine/index.html
Ukrainian drones reportedly hit industrial site near St. Petersburg in attack on multiple Russian oblasts: https://kyivindependent.com/drones-reportedly-attack-russias-leningrad-rostov-oblasts-causing-severe-fires/
Britain’s gas storage levels ‘concerningly low’ after cold snap – Plunging temperatures and high demand for gas-fired power are the main factors behind the low levels – with the operator of the country’s largest gas storage site warning there is less than a week of demand available: https://news.sky.com/story/britains-gas-storage-levels-concerningly-low-after-cold-snap-says-owner-of-british-gas-13286305
Former Navy chief urges Starmer to abandon ‘irresponsible’ Chagos deal – Admiral Lord West of Spithead says ‘it’s difficult to fathom’ why Labour has decided to cede control of a strategic archipelago: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/09/former-navy-chief-starmer-abandon-irresponsible-chagos-deal/
Twelve Reform UK councillors to resign over Nigel Farage’s leadership: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/10/reform-uk-councillors-to-resign-over-nigel-farage-leadership
Pakistanis up to four times more likely to be behind grooming: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/10/pakistanis-four-times-more-likely-grooming/
Reeves faces mounting discontent as ministers brace for deeper cuts: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/reeves-mounting-discontent-ministers-brace-deeper-cuts-3474915
Congressional Democrats are suddenly falling over themselves to endorse the Laken Riley Act, handing Republicans a major victory in their crackdown on immigration before Donald Trump even takes office. GOP lawmakers prioritized the bill this session, pitching it as an urgent revision to “ensure that America’s streets are safe from illegal immigrants who have been convicted of crimes.” It would, in this telling, mandate the detention of undocumented immigrants who commit theft, ostensibly to prevent them from moving on to worse offenses. The act—which originated as a Republican messaging bill to condemn President Joe Biden’s border policies—has already sailed through the House of Representatives with bipartisan approval and advanced to debate in the Senate on Thursday by a 84–9 vote: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/01/laken-riley-act-immigration-bill-trojan-horse.html
Canadian ‘Super Scooper’ plane grounded after hitting civilian drone over Los Angeles wildfires: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/10/us/super-scooper-drone-collision-la-fire-canada-hnk-intl/index.html
Canadian military, firefighters ready to join Los Angeles wildfire battle: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/canadian-military-firefighters-ready-to-join-los-angeles-wildfire-battle-1.7170151
hMPV is spreading in China. Here’s what to know about this virus: https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/health/2025/01/10/hmpv-virus-explained?ahe=7a3599e7a631b6e1e689461aa9696cb4097a83f587c09093e3816f710c82309f&acid=443784&lr_hash=f83c657ae9f96b5fdad338b8cf24962c
Labor Party activists have told Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus he risks dealing with “war criminals” if he meets senior members of Israel’s government, as former treasurer Josh Frydenberg declared the government’s handling of anti-Semitism and social cohesion will be an election issue.
Mr Dreyfus is due to leave for Israel later this month to help mend ties with Benjamin Netanyahu’s government after the Israeli Prime Minister accused the ALP of allowing anti-Semitism in Australia to flourish.
But intra-party pressure group Labor Friends of Palestine (LFOP) on Friday attacked Mr Netanyahu and called him “a fugitive under ICC arrest warrants for war crimes and crimes against humanity including starvation and extermination’’.
The Labor activist collective also questioned the validity of the Attorney-General’slooming trip, warning that Mr Netanyahu may face further sanctions and claiming all Israeli politicians were supporters of “genocide”. “The genocidal stain extends across the entire Israeli government and the official opposition,’’ LFOP said in a statement.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/antisemitism-on-the-ballot-as-labor-splits-over-israel/news-story/3f6ff6e58480e0a139a7d31ea34a8b2c?amp
Just catching up from last night’s hand wringing by Vlad and Rainman – repeating the Greens ‘no new coal and gas mines’ reheating of the Stop Adani campaign.
The 3 mine extensions approved by Tanya Plibersek in December, following a limited environmental assessment against criteria set in Australian law as it stands.
A few points to make:
1. The Greens in concert with the Coalition have blocked the revamp of the EPBC Act in the Senate – the Nature Positive Bills. So the old John Howard EPBC Act from 2000 is still the one governing approvals.
2. There is a difference between metallurgical coal – used for steel making – and thermal coal used for energy production. The former does not have any currently realistic alternative, the latter does (renewables, nuclear).
3. The 3 mine extensions approved in December:
– Caval Ridge
Located in Central Queensland’s Bowen Basin, Caval Ridge is the largest greenfield metallurgical coal-mining complex in Australia. The complex produces hard export metallurgical coal for use as coke in steel mills in China, India, and elsewhere.
– Lake Vermont
The Lake Vermont Meadowbrook Project is a proposed expansion of the mine that will extract up to 7 million tonnes of coal per year, producing around 5.5 million tonnes of metallurgical product coal. The project is expected to begin construction in January 2025 and be operational by December 2028.
– Boggabri
The Boggabri Coal Mine expansion was approved by the NSW government in January 2004. The expansion will allow the mine to extract more coal without increasing its physical size. The mine will produce low-ash and low-sulfur thermal coal, as well as PCI and semi-soft metallurgical coal. The mine’s output will be exported through the Newcastle port. The expansion is expected to generate significant royalties and taxes for NSW. The expansion is expected to maintain employment for around 740 full-time equivalent workers.
The only role, under the existing EPBC Act for the Federal Government was to assess the impact on water resources- which the scientific and engineering impact studies satisfied the professionals in the Federal department. And who then advised the Minister to approve.
So the accusations against the Albanese government can be summarised as ‘you are totally responsible for exacerbating climate change by allowing more coal to be produced. What you should be doing is unilaterally banning all such activity, regardless of Australian law, impact on employment, Australia’s trade relations and the current state of steel production in Asia’.
A truly excellent contribution from Cathy McGowan (mother of the community independents movement) today in the Saturday paper. There is a lot of rubbish and a lack of understanding about the community independents posted on PB, so I’d recommend all bludgers have a read
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/01/11/how-community-independent-campaigns-actually-work#mtr
Dan Tehan must be shitting bricks in wannon, and rightly so. Paul Fletcher has already taken his bat and ball and gone home, and caz heiss looks a very good chance in Cowper
I’d encourage all bludgers to join the movement. Both the coalition and the ALP are captured by vested interests and no longer govern for average Australians, so who wouldn’t want a community independent who will listen and actually represent them rather than bowing to the armies of lobbyists and special interests that infest Canberra
Election year birdwatching – Jess Harwood (The Guardian)
Dan Tehan must be shitting bricks in wannon, and rightly so.
_____________________
Make sure you adopt an orange kelpie for the front yard.
It’s the campaign mascot apparently.
Your idea William ?
Given Trump’s sentencing, can we now refer to him as Felonious Musk?
Pageboi
McGowan and Haines have spent nine years occupying a Teal seat.
They have achieved precisely nothing.
Sure, they are pure as the driven snow. They pretend they are not really, truly, politicians.
Sure they extol the virtues of this impossible dream and that impossible dream. Sure they are not going to get their hands dirty with unpopular outcomes. They are unsullied by party compromises.
It costs, say, $300,000 per MP per year so those two teal have hoovered up two and three quarter million of taxpayer funds to achieve nothing. Add that to the millions to pay for the other Teals this term and you are basically paying good money for fairy floss.
Nice work if you can get it!
In Australia, as elsewhere, it is politicians in parties that get things done. Like Labor’s 80 emergency care clinics, visited by 900,000 people a year, bulk billed. Not a Teal in sight.
Assuming that the next Labor Government is a minority government supported by the Teals.
What then?
A Teal BOP may get changes but a BOP ONLY ever gets you marginal changes to policies and programs. Sure, you can stop things from happening. As the Greens have shown for two and a half years… including delays to good, if not perfect, things, as the Greens have just shown for two and a half years.
But you cannot force big new things. As the Greens and Pocock have discovered with their Senate BOP this term.
So, forget the seductive fairy floss never never nirvana land. Tell them they’re dreaming.
PS. The Teals do have ONE EXCELLENT THING about them. They are crippling the Liberals and the Nationals. It is not the same as delivering many good things. But it is stopping the Trumpification of Australian politics.
If you want to block and delay things, vote for the Greens.
If you want to dream the impossible dream, vote for the Teals.
If you want to destroy things, vote for the Liberals.
If you want to build good things, vote for Labor.
Morning all. Thanks for the foreign roundup HH. The story on NATO control of Polish air defense is significant. The more I read of the consequences of Trump’s election, the less I can have confidence in USA as an ally. We should be dropping AUKUS as a policy now.
The group in Labor leadership holding onto AUKUS are obviously not doing so for security reasons (if they understand security). It would be more credible to state what their real reasons for AUKUS are? Stalling expenditure? Hard to think of any good ones.
Taylormade says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 7:38 am
Dan Tehan must be shitting bricks in wannon, and rightly so.
_____________________
Well, his electorate has been significantly burnt by the Grampians bushfires. Which the Victorian Labor and Albanese Labor governments allowed to burn for several days from the initial ignition by lightning on Tuesday 17 December.
46 homes were also burnt in nearby Pomonal earlier this year in April. But the Victorian and Albanese Labor government don’t care.
As the usual WWI, firefighters on the ground is the only way bushfires initially are attacked and hence let it grow to catastrophic size. Using large aircraft as an initial douse while fires is still small is not considered. There are 6 available large aerial water tankers usually available to fight fires in Australia. 5 have to be brought in from overseas.
Unlikely now as the Los Angeles fires indicate their large water and retardant bombing planes may be needed there all year round.
The effects of global warming the Albanese government ignores. Shows how little Albanese cares for most Australians. Who have already experienced the effects of global warming, at least evident in their rise in insurance premiums.
People might have thought after the 2019/2020 fires where the Morrison government stepped back, refused to talk earlier in the April, 2019 to Greg Mullins, ex NSW fire chief, about the need for more large aerial water tankers, Labor might have learnt.
Maybe Morrisons failure to have a better form of firefighting also led to the LNP loss in 2022. But, as we know, all Morrisons policies have been continued by Labor.
Especially the waste, devised by ex UK PM Boris Johnson and ex PM Morrison as ‘revenge’ against French President Macron, known as the $368billion AUKUS submarines.
As well as the continual growth of US military bases near Perth, Rockingham and near Darwin, starting from ex Labor Pm Gillard’s US marines rotation in 2011, and now the Albanese governments approval of bombers and stealth fighters also in the Northern Territory.
Meanwhile the defence of Australians in our country is ignored by PM Albanese.
Greg Mullins has been asked about what Australian governments should do to give some protections against a similar catastrophe.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-11/california-fires-experts-urge-australia-act-now-better-prepare/104805090
‘There are more than 170 aircraft in the national fleet, but just six are large air tankers.
All but one of those, the NSW Rural Fire Service’s 737, is leased from North America during their winter months.
“With overlapping fire seasons, they may not be available now,” Mr Mullins said.
He suggested one solution would be taking advantage of the Defence Force’s outgoing fleet of a dozen C-130 Hercules aircraft.’
Apparently there are a dozen Hercules C-130 planes the army doesn’t need. These could be converted to water bombers in his view.
But you can be sure the Albanese Labor government won’t want to spend taxpayers money.
Would rather Australians and our natural environments suffer. While Albanese, Marles, Wong and Conroy believe supporting the US to attack China, our biggest trading partner, should be a priority.
Federal Labor, as a government, continually fail most Australians. Totally lost any credibility.
Good Morning Dawn Patrollers! And thank you HoldenHillbilly!
US politics: Term-limited and immune from accountability, Trump’s power is unprecedented
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/term-limited-and-immune-from-accountability-trump-s-power-is-unprecedented-20250107-p5l2iz.html
The US Supreme Court on Friday will hear TikTok’s high-stakes challenge to a federal law that would effectively shut down the wildly popular video-sharing platform this month unless the company divests from Chinese ownership.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-supreme-court-takes-up-tiktok-ban-what-you-need-to-know-20250110-p5l3bp.html
Washington: A divided US Supreme Court has rejected President-elect Donald Trump’s bid to delay his sentencing in his hush money case in New York. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined with the court’s three liberals in rejecting his emergency motion.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/supreme-court-rejects-trump-s-bid-to-delay-sentencing-in-hush-money-case-20250110-p5l3db.html
Awkward ghosting and a death stare: The curious dynamics at Jimmy Carter’s funeral
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/awkward-ghosting-and-a-death-stare-the-curious-dynamics-at-jimmy-carter-s-funeral-20250110-p5l3cw.html
Last year climate change intensified 26 of the 29 weather events studied by the scientific group World Weather Attribution. These events killed at least 3700 people and displaced millions. Its report said climate change added 41 days of dangerous heat in 2024. Of 16 floods studied for the report, 15 were found to have been driven by climate change-amplified rainfall.
The other relevant shift since 2020 is that the fossil fuel industry is fighting back harder than ever against those who would seek to curtail it to protect the climate. Profits are up and political pressure for change is down.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/fossil-fuels-are-back-with-a-vengeance-and-the-world-is-cooking-20250110-p5l3f0.html
Trudeau, Biden and Ardern are done. What’s eating the global left?
Australia may be an island, but it is not immune to the systemic forces sweeping across global politics.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trudeau-biden-and-ardern-are-done-what-s-eating-the-global-left-20250107-p5l2n0.html
Economy on the up, Albanese declares in pitch for another term
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economy-on-the-up-albanese-declares-in-pitch-for-another-term-20250110-p5l3bb.html
Peter Dutton risks upsetting some of his most senior MPs as he chooses between a growing list, which now includes deputy Sussan Ley, jockeying for the foreign affairs portfolio, and considers whether to let a prominent Voice backer return to the frontbench.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-has-been-quiet-this-summer-here-s-what-the-liberals-are-focused-on-20250109-p5l38a.html
The biggest donors to Victorian council candidates revealed
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/the-biggest-donors-to-council-candidates-revealed-20241223-p5l0dr.html
Could what happened in LA occur here? Short answer: Yes And we are not prepared for it.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/could-what-happened-in-la-occur-here-short-answer-yes-20250110-p5l3co.html
Humans have always been ambivalent about the truth. The tech giants Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk understand this shortcoming of humanity better than most. It’s become their business model, and now it is playing out in real time as they opportunistically navigate the incoming Donald Trump presidency.
https://www.theage.com.au/technology/don-t-blame-zuckerberg-the-truth-about-humans-is-we-can-t-handle-the-truth-20250110-p5l3b3.html
Canada-U.S. history provides lessons on how Canada can deal with a hostile Donald Trump
https://theconversation.com/canada-u-s-history-provides-lessons-on-how-canada-can-deal-with-a-hostile-donald-trump-245731
Trump’s Greenland bid is really about control of the Arctic and the coming battle with China. Trump is not the first US politician to try to buy Greenland. The earliest documented attempt to acquire the island goes back to 1868.
https://theconversation.com/trumps-greenland-bid-is-really-about-control-of-the-arctic-and-the-coming-battle-with-china-246900
Joe Biden Will Go Down as a Failed President. History will regard him as the man who lost America’s liberal democracy to an authoritarian.
https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/joe-biden-will-go-down-as-a-failed
Labor insiders prepare for an early-April election. It’s informal, the Labor insider says, and muted by holidays and the public’s summer disengagement, but the 2025 election campaign has begun.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/01/11/labor-insiders-prepare-early-april-election
Despite claims the government’s reform of the National Disability Insurance Scheme is focused on fraud, a third of the savings will come from pushing children off the scheme. By Rick Morton.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/health/2025/01/11/exclusive-children-targeted-ndis-crackdown
Cathy McGowan:
How community independent campaigns actually work.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/01/11/how-community-independent-campaigns-actually-work
As Elon Musk reignites a British scandal involving gangs of men who sexually groomed underage girls, there is increasing evidence he is distorting the algorithm of his social media platform to advance his own political views.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/01/11/musk-tweaking-xs-algorithm-push-right-wing-conspiracies
John Hewson:
Chalmers campaigns with facts against Coalition fictions.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/01/11/chalmers-campaigns-with-facts-against-coalition-fictions
Chris Wallace
The good and bad in Albanese’s reset. The Pat Cummins-led Australian cricket team looked spent and was widely damned after losing the first Test in Perth in November. It refocused and in the remaining four Tests finally overwhelmed the Indian team. Federal Labor has several highly talented players with heart for the re-election struggle. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is no Pat Cummins, though, and Labor strategists believe winning depends on him decisively lifting his game.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/01/11/the-good-and-bad-albaneses-reset
Wes Streeting points to New Zealand mosque massacre amid grooming gang rhetoric from Musk.
UK Health secretary says ‘irresponsible public discourse’ could vilify communities and lead to terrorism.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/10/wes-streeting-new-zealand-mosque-massacre-warning-grooming-gang-rhetoric
Shopping at Australian food charities can be more expensive than supermarkets. What’s gone wrong?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/11/australian-food-charities-expensive-foodbank-falling-donations-unprecedented-demand
The wheels have begun falling off reform UK. Twelve Reform UK councillors to resign over Nigel Farage’s leadership.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/10/reform-uk-councillors-to-resign-over-nigel-farage-leadership
Ukraine’s highest profile combat unit to recruit English-speaking soldiers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/10/ukraine-combat-unit-azov-recruit-english-speaking-soldiers
2024 was hottest year on record for world’s land and oceans, US scientists confirm.
Noaa says last year was the warmest since records began in 1850 and Nasa concurs: ‘The long-term trends are very clear’.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/10/world-temperature-hottest-year-noaa
Mark Zuckerberg’s end to Meta factchecking is a desperate play for engagement. As factchecking attempts end, Meta’s platforms will become a wasteland of fake news and misinformation.
Apropos the train travel discussion. Interstate travellers take to the train as air fares between Melbourne and Sydney soar. This is why we need HSR all over the country. Eventually.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/11/melbourne-sydney-interstate-travellers-train-air-fares-soar
And finally, under BK’s ‘America is forked!’ heading, we have this. Right-wing media figures baselessly claim LA wildfires are burning out of control because the fire chief is an LGBTQ woman who supports DEI.
https://www.mediamatters.org/diversity-discrimination/right-wing-media-figures-baselessly-claim-la-wildfires-are-burning-out
Britain is not much better. There are no adults in the room: there’s barely a room. This is politics at warp speed, and we know who’s benefiting. The ‘Move fast & break things’ ideology brought to politics.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/10/uk-politics-fiscal-crisis-corruption-legal-threats
And now to leaven the loaf with some cartoons.
Alan Moir
Jess Harwood
Fiona Katauskas
Martin Rowson on Keir Starmer’s week:
From the internet
When you’re too self-absorbed to get the joke:
Matt Davies
😉
#weatheronPB
Dark wet stains reveal
a struggling undrying world.
We’re saturated.
Soc
Looking at Defence/National Security there are five significant Labor positives:
1. They kept us out of a war which is more than all previous prime ministers from Howard on. That is a real plus, IMO, and somewhat undervalued.
2. They have re-established working relations with China. This is, IMO, as good as it can get.
3. They approached the Forever Middle East War with commendable restraint.
4. They reversed the hopeless Payne/Seselja losses in the Pacific.
5. Defence spending does have some good points. This includes a strategic emphasis on ultra long range stand off weapons and a degree of autarchy in their home soil manufacturing.
There are two significant Labor negatives:
1. AUKUS and the frigates.
2 The increasing dependence on an unreliable ally including an increased US military presence on Australian soil.
As it turns out, the real world benefits have so far outweighed the hypothetical negatives.
BUT there are scenarios where it turns out in the end that the currently hypothetical negatives turn into significant real world disbenefits.
If we are partially hooked to Trump we are also partially hooked to Xi. Fortunately China’s economy is facing extreme headwinds ATM which would seem to make a kinetic war in the South China Sea less likely. However, Xi’s position is under threat and this may make him consider an adventurist war with Taiwan.
I continue to urge heavily armed neutrality as my preferred option.
William thanks for the lead in article on the new Morgan and Redbridge polling. I found the Redbridge results for self reported ideological bias interesting.
“ Thirty-one per cent placed themselves in the centre, 23% on the left and 33% on the right.”
This suggests that Australian politics skews Centre – Right, which I think is consistent with recent elections. Yet it also shows that a Centre – Left coalition can beat a far Right party, which the Liberal – LNP has become.
IMO the group best placed to take advantage of this are the Teals. Contrary to Boerwar’s comments, community independents do get things done at the local level. Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo is a good example. That is why they get reelected.
If Labor don’t win Sturt but the Teal independent does, I’ll be fine with it.
Soc
What major national policy or major national program has Sharkie delivered?
It’s official: 2024 is the hottest year on record—and the first to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures. It’s another milestone that underscores how far the present climate has shifted from that of the past because of the continued burning of fossil fuels.
“All of the internationally produced global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), in a news release.
Last year, which C3S measured at 1.6 degrees C (2.9 degrees F) above preindustrial temperatures, surpassed the record that was just set in 2023. That year had set the record by a wide margin in global temperature terms, registering 0.17 degree C (0.31 degree F) above the previous record holder, 2016, according to C3S. All of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the past decade, according to C3S data.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/2024-is-officially-the-hottest-year-on-record/
Boerwar 8:43am
I agree with most of your post but would qualify the following:
Your Labor security benefit 5 is partly true. Defence spending has improved in effectiveness. Reducing consultant use is also a big improvement in both autonomy and efficiency. But most needed reforms of defense acquisition AE and I have highlighted here for years remain undone. Marles does not appear capable of reforming the defense bureaucracy. So there is still huge waste. Shipbuilding capability is still going down not up, contrary to press releases.
Your two listed negatives, AUKUS and Hunter frigates, are agreed.
A 5/2 split for positives versus negatives might sound like a good outcome. But those two negatives account for more than half of the future defense capital budget. Not dealing with them is like reforming social security without ending Robodebt.
Bizzcan(from last night)
[I think you misunderstand “people”, most Australians don’t want those issues solved, they wanted them to “go away”, hence why we saw a decade of LNP “resets” to great electoral effect.]
That’s been as good an explanation as any as to why the polling remains in its current mix and remains there “give or take”.
No better exemplified by the LNP Nuclear fracas.
The LNP promise to build a nuclear power industry in perhaps twenty years time, so vote for the LNP and the “problem goes away”.
Unfortunately the “same same” are doing the LNP “disappearing trick”, with better intentions perhaps, but nevertheless making the problem go away in the “eyes of the enough voters”
If Australia is going to make progress regarding the environment, planning to reduce coal and gas, and adopting a progressive attitude to climate change action, it needs to work in conjunction with the Labor Party to have success.
The analogy that “the voice” failed, because most Australians just want the problem “to go away” is apt.
Australians want issues to go away, not solved.
The unfortunate “wild fire” events in the USA can provide a “green print” for Australia going forward.
Fires in the Australian bush most probably will never be abated, however the better planning solutions will be achieved with the the Greens, the Teals and Labor working together to not just make the fire problem “go away” in the minds of voters but actually introducing best practices.
The next election will be decided by voters choosing real solutions for a progressive future and by not handing Australia’s future back into the hands of the nuclear cowboys and their “three card trick” solutions to good governance.
Hh
An impressive achievement! It shows what humanity can achieve when it puts its heart and soul into it.
By several of those curious coincidences 2024 was also a peak for the global human population, for global fossil fuel emissions, AND for global tourism.
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:dwgkyrowsl6dady7oxz3ztqg/3) They prioritize good sleep@jpeg#image.jpg
People who stay physically fit as they get older, even without exercising much, usually adopt these 10 daily habits
https://geediting.com/jus-people-who-stay-physically-fit-as-they-get-older-even-without-exercising-much-usually-adopt-these-10-daily-habits/
1) Consistency is key
2) Hydration is a priority
3) They prioritize good sleep
4) Balanced diet is non-negotiable
5) They listen to their bodies
6) They embrace aging
7) They make time for mindfulness
8) They don’t obsess over the scale
9) They keep learning and adapting
10) They prioritize self-care
sprocket_ @ #4 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 7:19 am
A strawman of unusual size, but dubious structural integrity. I wouldn’t stand too close to it, if I were you.
If you judged either of the major parties on either their policies or their progress on reducing emissions, both would fail. Badly. Sure, one might score slightly more than the other, but so what? A fail is a fail.
But the issue is not really Labor vs COALition any longer – it is increasingly becoming Fossil Fuel Profiteers vs People Who Just Want a Decent Future.
And the Fossil Fuel Profiteers are winning. Bigly.
Since 1850 eh how olds the earth ? let’s see how warming compares over a lot longer period.
Libs wreck and destroy labors debt and excessive spending thats once again rampant.
What is it with labor and communists Great Britain labor are going to visit China to sell off democracy for so called economic gain irony is China is a basketcase outside of Autos,solar and some very cheap goods so why don’t Australian labor etc deal more with winners like USA?
Boerwar
In asking the national question about Sharkie you are avoiding my point. She has delivered on local issues and that is how many people vote. Ergo they don’t see her as pointless. You are free to disagree but it won’t change anything.
Sharkie’s voting record is here. She has voted for a lot of Labor’s reforms, though not all.
https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/people/representatives/mayo/rebekha_sharkie/divisions
Soc, must go, will respond later.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 8:53 am
It’s official: 2024 is the hottest year on record—and the first to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures. It’s another milestone that underscores how far the present climate has shifted from that of the past because of the continued burning of fossil fuels.
“All of the internationally produced global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), in a news release.
Last year, which C3S measured at 1.6 degrees C (2.9 degrees F) above preindustrial temperatures, surpassed the record that was just set in 2023. That year had set the record by a wide margin in global temperature terms, registering 0.17 degree C (0.31 degree F) above the previous record holder, 2016, according to C3S. All of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the past decade, according to C3S data.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/2024-is-officially-the-hottest-year-on-record/
”
It appears 1.5°C is almost baked into world’s environment. I am afraid we may reach 2.0°C in less than a decade.
Vensays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 9:00
People who stay physically fit as they get older, even without exercising much, usually adopt these 10 daily habits.
_____________________
Thanks Ven will read it later.
Am so down on myself for not doing the Lorne Pier to Pub swim today.
My 26 year run has come to an end.
Just had no mojo to train for it.
Irene @ #11 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 8:33 am
Well a finer segue you are unlikely to find elsewhere.
You forgot to throw in OH&S which limits by duty of care the CFA sending in fire trucks with kids and old blokes hanging off the rails into circumstances that may send them home in coffins.
How about you just stick to your green prayer book and leave the fighting to the real hose holders who do have a clue.
Cat
A belated thanks for your morning roundup too. I agree with the Saturday Paper article. Albo was good selling the Bruce Highway policy, which is also a good policy. He needs to get better at using bite sized chunks for the main message.
On the Nigel Farage article, I am struck by the similarities between Reform and One Nation. Both are populist, both criticise, neither have any real answers, and both fall apart quickly in parliament. Dutton should be handled the same way.
“ The wheels have begun falling off reform UK. Twelve Reform UK councillors to resign over Nigel Farage’s leadership.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/10/reform-uk-councillors-to-resign-over-nigel-farage-leadership
Off to do the chores. Have a good day all.
This video is for the edification of FUBAR:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vZjf-xDEKI
It had been reported that Alito phoned Trump but it turns out that the reverse occurred, but it makes no difference as Alito should not
have accepted Trump’s call. Alito is as crooked as they come, only surpassed by Thomas. It will take some time for the US Supreme Court to recover its reputation among common law jurisdictions, let
alone a good swathe of the American public.
Labor will vastly increase aerial surveillance of the nation’s coasts and scale up its capacity for charter flights to Nauru, following a sharp increase in illegal asylum-seeker boats reaching Australia in the past 18 months. The Weekend Australian can reveal the Albanese government is weighing bids from some of the world’s biggest private sector national-security operators for increased aerial patrols.
At the same time, the Home Affairs Department has realised the frequency of charter flights required to take newly arrived asylum seekers to Nauru has outgrown the modest contract in place before the 2022 election.
A rewritten, bigger contract for transporting asylum seekers to the Pacific island – and in some cases home or to a resettlement country – is out for tender. The successful bidder must dedicate a fully crewed, long-range jet with at least 180 passenger seats to fly in and out of Nauru at short notice. The jet must have “limited markings and no branding in order to maintain a discreet profile”.
The rush of asylum-seeker vessels to Australia began in September 2023, when a boat carrying 11 people was intercepted in Australian waters and the passengers flown to Nauru. That was the first time in nine years Australia had sent asylum seekers to the Pacific island for processing. Since then, at least 15 more boats carrying 213 people have reached Australian waters or land.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-to-massively-increase-surveillance-and-flights-to-nauru-amid-increase-in-boat-arrivals/news-story/d228f0a61d0b8a153eca664b8a86d6e7?amp
Trump will go even more mental!
Firefighters from Mexico are en route to the #EatonFire — joining more than 10,000 personnel already on the ground. California is deeply grateful for President @ClaudiaShein’s support as we work to suppress the Los Angeles wildfires.
Currently there are five fires in the region —Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Kenneth and Lidia. The Sunset fire has been 100% contained. The Lidia fire is 75% contained.
The Hurst fire is 37% contained. The Kenneth fire is 35% contained. The Palisades fire is 8% contained (up from 0% yesterday). The Eaton fire is 3% contained (up from 0% yesterday). Canada and Mexico have sent firefighters to help with the Eaton fire.
News Corp keeping Josh Frydenberg “relevant” on the right. Back up plan if Dutton doesn’t cut it?
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Ben Jennings
Peter Brookes
Matt
Dave Brown #RoguesGallery
The possible original Albert Bierstadt? “Immigrants crossing the plains”
Dave Brown
Guy Venables
Martin Rowson
Christian Adams
Andy Bunday
Graeme Bandeira
The New Yorker “Barry Blitt” “Two’s a crowd”
Martyn Turner
Andy Davey
Morten Morland
Zapiro
Kal
Tom Gauld
CNN’s critique of Trump’s sentencing:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/takeaways-trump-hush-money-sentencing/index.html
‘Socrates says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 9:12 am
Boerwar
In asking the national question about Sharkie you are avoiding my point. She has delivered on local issues and that is how many people vote. Ergo they don’t see her as pointless. You are free to disagree but it won’t change anything.
Sharkie’s voting record is here. She has voted for a lot of Labor’s reforms, though not all.
https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/people/representatives/mayo/rebekha_sharkie/divisions‘
====================
1. Good MPs are generally good local members. They have a finger on the pulse. Their offices act on behalf of constituents who being fucked over by Robodebt, etc. (Except apparently if you are a Liberal MP.) Local members who are not in Government almost invariably have more time for direct community engagement. However, community engagement is enormously expensive in terms of time. If you are a minister you have almost zip real time for this sort of engagement. Ministers invariably wield more power than a backbencher. Clearly, there are some contradictions that the Teals can get away with because they have no power.
2. Good local members do not run the country. Politicians that belong to parties run the country.
3. When good local members wield the BOP they will still not be running the country. They will have an impact on the margins of the substance, not the major substance. What does this mean? The Teals with a BOP in a Labor minority government will not be stopping AUKUS, coal mining or gas drilling. They will not get a sensible destroyer build.
4. I take your point about her voting record. My point is that her voting record is irrelevant. The politicians who are relevant are the ones who belong to the party of government.
5. Here is a thought experiment. How would the country go if every single member were a Teal?
The Army has nothing to do with Hercules aircraft except as passengers.
Well done to the Democrats on spending all that effort to get Trump with zero criminal penalties and elected as POTUS. Possibly the greatest own goal ever in the history of politics and sport. There have been some NFL Draft and trade strategies that have come back to massively bite individual teams on the arse, but nothing like this with such National and global impact.
Dudes, I am so going to live to 120! I am doing the whole shebang, the whole 10 shebangs! Plus my parents are still living at home in their Mid 80s, my great grandmothers lived well into their 80s and 90s and I had an early settler ancestor who lived into her 80s, before the invention of antibiotics or vaccines. So it looks like you’re stuck with me. 😀
BW
Just to clarify: Are you saying that in seats Labor cannot win you would prefer a Coalition member?
‘FUBAR says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:27 am
The Army has nothing to do with Hercules aircraft except as passengers.
Well done to the Democrats on spending all that effort to get Trump with zero criminal penalties and elected as POTUS. Possibly the greatest own goal ever in the history of politics and sport. There have been some NFL Draft and trade strategies that have come back to massively bite individual teams on the arse, but nothing like this with such National and global impact.’
================
FUBAR would rather not face the notion that Trump is solely accountable for Trump or that Dutton is solely accountable for Dutton.
Trump.Gina.FUBAR.Dutton.Musk.
Join the dots.
Holdenhillbilly @ #31 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 10:05 am
I’ve got a great idea for a new country! Canada+Mexico+California+Oregon+Washington State. 😀
Hi William, I’ve had a long period of reflection for my petty hyperbole that defined my last stint here.
I really want to participate again but without all the bombastic rubbish etc.
Would you consider a strict parole for me ? I don’t want to create another profile. All the best, LB
‘Douglas and Milko says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:34 am
BW
Just to clarify: Are you saying that in seats Labor cannot win you would prefer a Coalition member?’
===================
It is a bit more nuanced than that but I would far prefer most Teals to all Liberals.
In the broader sense my concern is that the Teals is that are good at expressing the unhappiness elements of the zeitgeist in their seats but are also generally poor at developing an integrated set of policies and programs that are needed to run a country.
My particular concern is that there are invariably compromises required because we cannot maximize all our variables. But the Teals routinely talk, and sell themselves, as if THEY can maximize all the variables.
This disjunct between what is practicable and what the Teals promise raises expectations on the government of the day which are not deliverable and which, de facto, leads to excessive condemnations of the government of the day.
”
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:36 am
‘FUBAR says:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:27 am
The Army has nothing to do with Hercules aircraft except as passengers.
Well done to the Democrats on spending all that effort to get Trump with zero criminal penalties and elected as POTUS. Possibly the greatest own goal ever in the history of politics and sport. There have been some NFL Draft and trade strategies that have come back to massively bite individual teams on the arse, but nothing like this with such National and global impact.’
================
FUBAR would rather not face the notion that Trump is solely accountable for Trump or that Dutton is solely accountable for Dutton.
Trump.Gina.FUBAR.Dutton.Musk.
Join the dots.
”
As per FUBAR, It is Democrats fault that Republican party members elected Trump in their primaries even when they had a choice.
People like FUBAR should understand that over 70% Republicans are MAGAs and they are Trump diehard followers irrespective of whether Trump is criminal/ convicted felon or not.
Welcome back LB you hothead.
Thanks, Douglas and Milko. 🙂
On the Mudine gambit:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/10/liberal-faction-fears-warren-mundine-will-sink-in-north-sydney-seat-that-returned-pro-voice-vote
”
leftieBrawlersays:
Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 10:40 am
Hi William, I’ve had a long period of reflection for my petty hyperbole that defined my last stint here.
I really want to participate again but without all the bombastic rubbish etc.
Would you consider a strict parole for me ? I don’t want to create another profile. All the best, LB
”
Leftie
It appears you are already forgiven by WB. Otherwise, your apology will not appear on PB. 🙂
Or I could be wrong with that interpretation.
Hi Dave, I need to get a feel for the current PB lay of the land. I haven’t been reading but felt compelled to return amidst the backdrop all the recent federal polling and tracking
leftieBrawler @ #41 Saturday, January 11th, 2025 – 10:40 am
I would suggest a change of nom. leftieBrawler kind of suggests the former stance. How about formerleftieBrawler? 🙂