Roy Morgan returned to the field this week with an eye-catching headline result of 53-47 in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but this turned out to be entirely down to an unorthodox set of respondent-allocated preference flows, with the accompanying release relating that Labor’s share from the Greens was down from 85% to 55% from the previous poll. A previous election preferences measure was not provided on this occasion, but such a result assuredly have come in at 50-50. Labor were in fact up three-and-a-half points on the pre-Christmas poll to 31%, with the Coalition down half to 40.5%, the Greens down half to 12% and One Nation down one-and-a-half to 3.5%. The poll was conducted December 30 to January 5 from a sample of 1446.
Also out this week from RedBridge Group was a follow-up report from its recent MRP survey relating to ideological positioning on the customary left-to-right scale. On a ten-point left-to-right scale, 51% rated Labor at very points on the left, 18% had them in the centre and 20% on the right, whereas the Liberals were put on the right by 62%, in the centre by 14% and on the left by 13%. Thirty-one per cent placed themselves in the centre, 23% on the left and 33% on the right. Forty-two per cent either way felt the Liberal Party to be to their right and Labor to be to their left, with 43% rating the Liberal Party’s position similar to their own compared with 39% for Labor.
Looks like Billy is pulling the pin earlier, in 9 days time.
Clearly aware parliament won’t sit again, hence his farewell speech in Nov.
Looks like an early election is on, possibly called after invasion day.
Congratulations Dr Doolittle. Good pick.
And in regards Israel, please explain why the terminology “Occupied Territories” is used?
And what it refers to
And why in that Region of the World there are so many Nations with refugee populations
So where do they come from and why?
And in regards Shorten he commences his position of Vice Chancellor at the commencement of the Academic Year
Which given the responsibilities of a Vice Chancellor would be the requirement of the ANU
Chancellors are the figure head
Vice Chancellors the administrators so with day to day responsibilities
Vlad
It was reported at the time that Shorten announced he was leaving politics that he would not return to Parliament in 2025 because he is to start his new job at the uni in Canberra in February.
Never let the facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.
Jst did something quite regretful, browsed Facebook marketplace on the phone and not my PC with Ublock and other add ons working.
The place is a pile of merde. I mean the ratio of actual ads to sponsored ads is about 1:1, ad I think meta’s new fact checking policy extends to ads as the number of misleading, dodgy crap was pretty extensive – make money from cryto scams?, half naked women advertising car parts, endless Temu and other chinese data harvesting apps….and now you cant dismiss them properly.
Anyhow the point of the rant is I was getting strange Canadian political ads including one with the blue yard banner from what I assume is the Conservative leader that reads “Poutine (or whoever it was) Make Canada Strong Again”
Trump really is King of the Tories if they are all following him so blatantly
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 8:37 pm
The treatment of Israel Folau by Rugby Australia was religious discrimination but you all supported it.
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Except he had signed a contract that set out a specific code of conduct. So you have no problem with people breaching code of conducts they signed in their contracts?
He was happy to take the money under the contract he signed until he wasn’t.
FUBAR @ #2071 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 8:46 pm
Including the Death Penalty for Nazis?
Rossmcg @ #2103 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 9:38 pm
It’s all they’ve got. 😐
Making crap up and hoping it will stick is the new Post Truth World.
Vlad @ #2101 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 9:33 pm
Vlad the Inhaler, huffing and puffing and failing to blow the house down. Again.
Ross – they’ve both been campaigning since Dec 29. It’s on.
Get in now before the polls collapse further. Senate at stake for Albo too.
Been There @ #2098 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 9:29 pm
And the heat blanket has been blown away, thank goodness. I love a good Sydney Summer Storm. Better than fireworks. I did say to my son I wish we could send some of this rain over to LA though.
Vlad @ #2109 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 9:46 pm
Bollocks.
Rossmcg says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Vlad
It was reported at the time that Shorten announced he was leaving politics that he would not return to Parliament in 2025 because he is to start his new job at the uni in Canberra in February.
Never let the facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.
_________________________
It is a masterstroke by Shorten and epic cunning plan to retake the leadership while appearing to leave politics…..he will get a term to plan, and covertly work the numbers and destabalise the leadership from outside then – with all the grace of Campbell Newman, be parachuted into the leadership to campaign from ousside parliament for the sweetest victory since PJK. Never underestimate him, it is part of the plan.
Here you are TailoredMerde.
What are yours? Matt black, I expect. Like your sad, closed, feeble mind.
I, and all who have actually seen them, think that they are delightful. Called Picasso, like my car(s).
Dr Fumbles,
I gave up on Facebook Marketplace when it started being swamped with ads too. I discovered my local low rent local auction house and go there now for what I want. They usually have it come through eventually and at a knock down price. 🙂
“We’ve eliminated fact-checkers and spell checkers.” – The GOP
How to prop up Gallagher in the A.C.T?
Libs get up to near quota and Pocock gets a soph, leaving Gallagher scrambling around for Pocock preferences.
Perhaps Boer could be right about a right wing senate coming up, especially if Qld decides to elect 3 LNP and 1 PHON looney to the Senate. What a fucking mess.
He’ll go early to try and salvage things.
With our $A tanking, can’t see an interest rate cut coming in Feb.
Hopefully the Greens can survive this shitshow.
Rossmcgsays:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Vlad
It was reported at the time that Shorten announced he was leaving politics that he would not return to Parliament in 2025 because he is to start his new job at the uni in Canberra in February.
Never let the facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.
=====================================================
Correct, it was announced on the 5th of September 2024. Some people are slow to catch on.
“5 September 2024. The University of Canberra is pleased to announce the appointment of the Honourable Bill Shorten MP as its seventh Vice-Chancellor and President. Mr Shorten will commence at the University of Canberra at the beginning of the academic year in 2025.”
Relevant statement being: “Mr Shorten will commence at the University of Canberra at the beginning of the academic year in 2025.”
The University of Canberra’s academic year officially starts on the 3rd of February 2025.
https://www.canberra.edu.au/about-uc/media/media-releases/2024/september/the-honourable-bill-shorten-mp-announced-as-the-next-university-of-canberra-vice-chancellor-and-president
Keep Bill Shorten out of town for a start.
Pocock’s preferences only get distributed if he drops out, which is presumably precluded under your scenario.
I never seen Australia people erupt in approval than when they did after his dismissal against Adelaide strikers
Vladsays:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 9:56 pm
How to prop up Gallagher in the A.C.T?
Libs get up to near quota and Pocock gets a soph, leaving Gallagher scrambling around for Pocock preferences.
Perhaps Boer could be right about a right wing senate coming up, especially if Qld decides to elect 3 LNP and 1 PHON looney to the Senate. What a fucking mess.
He’ll go early to try and salvage things.
================================================
What is your definition of early?
The earliest possible date now would still only be 2 months short of a full term.
What am I saying. Pocock’s surplus would get distributed. Carry on …
I’m not saying Albanese won’t call an April election.
Nothing surprises me these days
But somehow linking it to the timing of Shorten’s valedictory speech and actual resignation date is tin foil hat stuff.
Meanwhile, over at the LNP it seems the boys are not keen on letting Sussan Ley choose her portfolio.
I reckon she’ll lose.
William, say Pocock gets 38%.
This is more than a quota.
So he gets elected on his primary.
His balance then gets distributed at a reduced rate.
That’s what i’m referring to.
The scary thing is not only Nuckleer Pete but those who row his boat
Witness this site
To quote Malcolm Fraser “The Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party”
And he resigned his membership
There is a Memorial Lecture at the University of Melbourne to honour Malcolm
The people at Adelaide Oval are supporting the home side, the home side needing a win to stay in finals contention
Every wicket the Adelaide side takes is being celebrated by the Adelaide Oval crowd
Dr Doolittle says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 6:51 pm
“ Note that Bishop said then the only likely way to end Putin’s war would be for Ukraine to agree to be neutral, outside NATO. There was a lot of breast-beating by armchair strategists, some with military experience and many without, about how Ukraine had a right to join NATO.
That has all been so much hot air, because it is very likely that Trump will insist that Ukraine be neutral, which has always been Putin’s key precondition for ending his war. Ukraine will have no alternative to neutrality if Trump does that, which is likely, as may soon become clear.”
******************************
I’m about to say something that I know will get me attacked from all quarters.
In the Korean War, MacArthur pushed the North back to the 38th parallel, which was theUN resolution.
“ He made a controversial move, however, when he continued to push the North Koreans further north and suggested bombing cities in China that were thought to be aiding the North Korean troops. In pushing for a larger conflict, MacArthur downplayed the risk of inciting a massive war in Asia.”
https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/education/presidential-inquiries/firing-macarthur
The Chinese warned the U.S. not to approach its border but those warnings were ignored. This led to 3 million Chinese entering the war. The result is history.
Similarly, NATO has been pushing toward Russia’s border since the end of the Cold War, not as an actual invasion but certainly as an encroachment of military bases with all the weaponry involved. Russia warned them for some time not to do this. And then they crossed the border.
I don’t blame Ukraine at all. They are the innocent victims who have paid in blood for the lies and machinations of Joe Biden and Boris Johnson.
Gotcha William!
Ok, yes you always win.
A spectacular thunderstorm in Sydney earlier this evening, with strobing lightning, continuous thunder, strong winds and heavy rain. Probably not so spectacular for those who lost power.
Light rain, rumbling and the occasional flash continue.
What’s the overnight cash rate Peter C?
Vensays:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 10:01 pm
I never seen Australia people erupt in approval than when they did after his dismissal against Adelaide strikers
====================================================
The match is being played at the Adelaide Oval. Steve Smith was looking like he could win the game off his own bat. Of course the Adelaide crowd was happy he went out. As if he stuck around Sydney would win. Now it looks like Adelaide should win fairly easily. Strangely the Adelaide crowd supports Adelaide, who knew?
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 9:54 pm
Dr Fumbles,
I gave up on Facebook Marketplace when it started being swamped with ads too. I discovered my local low rent local auction house and go there now for what I want. They usually have it come through eventually and at a knock down price.
_______________________________
I am old skool and still prefer ebay, it still works even though it is also infested with promoted and sponsored listings but these can be easily blocked and the prices are reasonable. I refuse to use Amazon due to the way Bezos treats workers and suppliers. Another beef is how those sites create so much waste – order lots of plastic dingleberries but only pay supplier items sold, if it doesnt sell send the lot to returns at suppiers expense.
Vlad @ #2117 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 9:26 pm
If QLD elects 3 LNP + 1 PHON, that would be a status quo result (at least in terms of right wing parties elected), as that was what was elected in 2019 – which are the seats that will be up for election.
Antony Green has published the ABC’s 2025 WA state election guide.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/preview
Poor Sandy Smith everyone loves to hate him although most want him to score runs for Australia.
Whilst Wall Street is holding its breath ahead of CPI data (which will impact Global Markets despite Nuckleer Pete saying a “strong leader” will insulate Australia) data in the UK has soothed inflation fears to the benefit of Equity and Bond markets – at least until the USA CPI data drops
The drop in UK inflation is down to food prices
The USA pre markets are marginally positive off the UK data
And the Adelaide Oval crowd are celebrating another wicket in a very tight game – and imagine if Pope takes more with his leg breaks
And I would add that the identity Vlad is a very, very sick puppy
The RBA indicative Cash Rate is 4.35%
davidwhsays:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 10:30 pm
Poor Sandy Smith everyone loves to hate him although most want him to score runs for Australia.
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It’s shoulder drop Kohli they really dislike. If he was playing for Adelaide they would still boo him. They would also have wasted a lot of money. As unlike Smith he is now pretty useless.
ICC obviously hugely favouring Australia. As by not suspending Kohli for a blatant category 2 shoulder charge. They allowed Australia a walking wicket in the Sydney test. Which up to then was Rohit’s role.
Agree Entropy. Kohli is easy to dislike after his recent actions.
For anyone interested I stumbled across another history podcast I have started listening to and am enjoying. It is called The History of China by Chris Stewart. I have found it educational and entertaining. The author is quite expert and narrates in the style of Mike Duncan who did the Revolutions series.
https://overcast.fm/+AAR5M9CPtME
There are over 100 episodes and it starts right back with the semi legendary Yellow Emperor before the Xi. I am already finding it great background to understanding the many conflicts embedded in the region.
It’s going down to the wire in Adelaide.
What, “Peter C”, for daring to burden your honour with a question about the overnight cash rate. I am so sorry Your Majesty, but your homeless subjects down at the local park, sleeping in tattered tents, would love to know what the overnight cash rate is.
That’s ok, when i take my dog for a walk tomorrow, i’ll let them know that they can eat cake instead.
You’re the sick puppy peter ‘c’.
Snob.
Entropy I wasn’t aware the ICC determined the type of wicket for a test?
Looks like the Sixers win despite Sandy’s dismissal.
davidwhsays:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 10:44 pm
Entropy I wasn’t aware the ICC determined the type of wicket for a test?
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A walking wicket. Is a batsmen that is easy to dismiss. Boland’s bunny is one such batsman.
While Rohit was more like a ferret. Should come in after the bunnies.
Ok Entropy understand now. 🙂
I give the Indian supporters a pat on the back. At least they give their players support regardless of what they do. I think some Aussies will never cut Smith any slack for what he did despite paying a pretty heavy penalty for the stupid action.
davidwhsays:
Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at 10:48 pm
Looks like the Sixers win despite Sandy’s dismissal.
===============================================
They did better then i thought they would after they had collapsed to 5/92. Adelaide crowd, like me, were probably fairly confident of a win at that stage. Though at 2/88 after only 9 overs. It looked like Smudge was going to do it easy for Sydney too.
Entropy the result makes Brisbane’s slight change for a Top 4 finish a little easier.
Vlad @ #2140 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 10:43 pm
Why don’t YOU stop using the Homeless as your tools to attack other people with? How about, instead of taking your dog for a walk and walking RIGHT BY said Homeless people you delay your dog walk for an hour, rich sanctimonious bleeding heart person who can afford to keep a pet, and make them some sandwiches and walk amongst them and give them said sandwiches you supercilious Snob!
Seat of thornlie in Perth for labor state gov has been given to a McGowan staffer.
Meta lifting fact checking is only in USA.
Unemployment stats tomorrow makes no difference interest rates are staying where they are.
Coconuts in the tennis is putting up a fight.
Bidens got fiveish days left its probable he thinks one but anyways Yemen may get the bombs returning.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #2131 Wednesday, January 15th, 2025 – 10:16 pm
I also refuse to use Amazon. I’m surviving quite well without it in my life. 🙂