Two more pollsters get their last results in for the year, one being the fortnightly Essential Research series, which has Labor down two to 30%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down two to 6%, with the undecided component steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged at Coalition 48%, Labor 47% and undecided 5%. Also included are the monthly leadership ratings which have Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 39%, his worst result of the term, with disapproval up two to an equal worst 50%. Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 44% and steady on 41% disapproval. A montly question on national direction reverses an improvement last month, with a four point drop in right direction to 31% and three point increase in wrong direction to 51%. The full report features a number of further questions in that vein. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.
The weekly Roy Morgan series, which may prove an exception to the rule of pollsters taking a break over Christmas and New Year, gives Labor its worst result of the term with a half-point drop on the primary vote to 27.5% while the Coalition gains three to 41%, with the Greens down half to 12.5% and One Nation down one-and-a-half to 5%. The headline two-party measure is unchanged on 52-48, but Labor does uncommonly well out of its respondent-allocated preference flow: the alternative measure based on 2022 election flows, which is invariably more favourable for Labor, has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1672.
C@tmomma @ #1849 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 7:45 pm
Actually I’m afraid I’m going to have to disagree with you here.
One thing I’ve gathered from this election that Latinos very much dislike being treated as a demographic to be pandered to. Most of them seem to just want to quietly assimilate into US society and not cause much fuss.
So yeah, the Democrats should absolutely start launching policies that benefit Latinos, but just not bring so much attention to them in particular. Brand it as something that benefits all Americans.
Cat, Kirsdarke
“ I can’t seem to find any official results as of yet, but there seemed to be a lot of Trump-AOC voters in New York’s 14th Congressional District, at least according to vox-pops and media articles.”
=================================
Thanks, that sort of confirms my point.
I won’t comment on specific tactics but people like AOC herself probably have a good idea how to beat the GOP for the Latino vote. Time to listen to them.
Kirsdarke @ #1851 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 7:52 pm
I just counted about 20 Democratic Latino Members of Congress, so they must be doing something to attract them and their votes.
https://www.dems.gov/who-we-are/our-members
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 6:30 pm
Poliphili says:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 6:13 pm
________________________
Do you have a personal benefit from a Labor Govt (like staffer employment) which your seeking to protect or are you just a camp follower?
______________________
No I don’t have a personal benefit from a Labor Govt ( happy to receive one if you can arrange it), so I guess in your binary terms I must be a camp follower. How about your arrangements?
C@t,
And I just counted a 14% swing in Latino voters in the 2024 election from the Democrats to the party that declared that they want to deport 20 million of them.
Uncle Rifaat is in the clear:
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/ex-syrian-vice-president-rifaat-al-assad-could-avoid-trial-in-switzerland/88596854
Reading Victoria, I’d go with this analysis from nadia88…
==
nadia88says:
Monday, December 16, 2024 at 9:36 pm
=======================
It’s over for Pesutto. More interesting is when the axe drops.
They’ve read the tea leaves over Prahran. I mentioned this arvo that the “Tory backed” candidate was preselected over the mod. Pesutto loses either way if she wins or loses on Feb.8.
I’d say Brad Battin will get the job. ……
Looks like the “tory” vic lib faction now have the numbers, or will soon if they get Deeming back in.
Jeez – Pesutto will be fighting her re-admission. What a shocking end to the year for him.
Dutton will want the axe to drop soon, rather than deal with a messy “division is death” nightmare in Victoria in the fed lead up. Gosh, the Vic Libs – the gift which keeps on giving to the ALP.
……………
and then this…
nadia88says:
Monday, December 16, 2024 at 9:56 pm
She’s a moderate, mexicanbeemer.
If the “right” have the numbers, it will be someone from the “right”.
Battin put his hand up last time.
Wells put his hand up recently.
Both are from the right faction. ie: not moderates.
Looks like the “right” are on the cusp of seizing control in Vic.
Reading the political play…
If the “right” think that Prahran will fall to the Libs, they’ll challenge now.
If the “right” think that the greens will win Prahran, they’ll leave Pesutto in place to wear it, and then they’ll tip him out.
Politics – gosh, it’s brutal.
Fed Implications:
Dutton will want the “kill” to occur earlier. Get it out of the way now, ……
=========================
It appears this is exactly what is happenning in Victoria. The “kill” is to occur earlier, probably after a phone call from Peter Dutton, and then let the dust settle over January.
Per the comment ” she’s a moderate” – this is in reference to Jess Wilson, who some have floated on this site in the past few hours. To quote Nadia – “she’s been in parliament for 5 minutes”.
Battin will get the gig on Friday. What a miserable Christmas Pesutto will have. Tick, tick, tick.
Battin is from the conservative faction, so it looks like they’re about to seize control.
Of interest with this is that it will now be the SA & VIC branches under the control of the conservative wing of the LNP. Hopefully Mr battin can spend the next two years getting rid of the toxic moderate forces (who have kept the Libs out of power for 10 years under Guy-O’Brien-Pesutto), and provide some sort of leadership which will galvanise their base.
As for Mr Pesutto – please go and join the Labor party where you belong, before your seat flips back to the ALP next state election, as it did in 2018. That may be the best way for you to remain in Parliament, unless the creditors get you first.
John Pesutto to face leadership spill on Friday.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/pesutto-calls-another-party-room-vote-on-deeming-s-re-admission-20241222-p5l07l.html
Well, he did last until Christmas at least. I doubt he’ll survive this one politically.
Vic Lib party meeting scheduled for 15th January. That’s nice. I’m sure everyone involved will have a relaxing, festive and peaceful yuletide rest.
Ike is my favourite 20th century US President. He was very much much a conservative but in that conservatives should by definition be very pragmatic rather than ideological. In my opinion, nearly all great conservative leaders have come from military backgrounds. Any good modern western military commander understands the importance of giving autonomy to his junior officers on the frontline to respond to the situation in front of them, whilst also understanding the importance of more senior command being able to direct from a more strategic viewpoint.
Good modern military command embodies the best aspects of leadership and has created many great political leaders.
I’ll point out 20% of current US energy production is nuclear and the Mr Biden and Ms Harris’ administration has just committed to TRIPLING that.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2024/11/12/biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-establishes-bold-u-s-government-targets-for-safely-and-responsibly-expanding-u-s-nuclear-energy-and-announces-framework-for-action-to-achieve-these-targets/
The US has even greater ability to generate renewable energy than Australia and this is the same administration that gave us the 2022 Inflation Reduction ACT. In fact, the Democrats energy policy now looks a lot like Mr Dutton’s, with a massive, rapid expansion if nuclear power generation. I’ll point out that the CDU in Germany, who will almost certainly going to be the next government are looking at undoing everything they’ve done with respect to nuclear power and returning to nuclear.
https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/11/germanys-christian-democrats-want-to-revive-domestic-nuclear-sector/
Gotta give ’em credit. They’re not taking Christmas week off. I thought that the spill would be in the New Year. And yeah, Pesutto’s a dead man walking.
Is it on Friday, or is it on the 15th?
Wat Tyler @ #1862 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 8:19 pm
It’s on Friday 27th December 2024. Seems pretty grim for Pesutto that they’re doing this immediately after Christmas on the first working day afterward.
Rainman,
I saw earlier today, you were attacked by the site troll, and descibed as having no labour values, and in fact were accused of being a liar.
Just ignore her.
She accused nadia of being a liberal voting RWNJ last weekend. She moves from target to target, so please ignore her. If nadia is not around, she finds another target to attack.
Most of us can’t stand her on this site, as she lacks any sense of objectivity. She’s a venal party hack.
Nasty poster at times.
John Pesutto’s days as Liberal leader appear numbered after five shadow cabinet ministers forced a party room meeting on Friday to decide his fate.
The opposition leader had made a last-ditch effort on Sunday to save his job by making a shock concession and agreeing to readmit exiled MP and defamation foe Moira Deeming to the party.
However, his challengers say it’s too little, too late, with the push to oust him culminating with a letter – signed by key Pesutto ally James Newbury – calling the spill motion on. The meeting later this week will also include a vote over Deeming’s membership.
The move means the group backing shadow police minister Brad Battin is confident they have the numbers. Signatories include Newbury, housing spokesman Richard Riordan, recently resigned frontbencher Sam Groth and opposition spokesperson for industry Bridget Vallence.
As plotters spent the weekend hashing out a new leadership team that could win the majority support of the party room, Pesutto sought to buy himself time and neutralise a key point of contention by pushing to readmit Deeming himself.
Five Liberal MPs, speaking anonymously to detail internal conversations, said the situation was a mess.
One said Pesutto’s efforts to save his leadership had come too late. Another said the move had weakened his position further with moderate colleagues who had backed him in voting against Deeming.
“Anyone who believes they’ve got the numbers isn’t going to wait around for John’s invitation. They will move straightaway,” one MP said.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/pesutto-calls-another-party-room-vote-on-deeming-s-re-admission-20241222-p5l07l.html
Kirsdarke @ #1863 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 7:52 pm
Thank you. I just needed clarification after another poster said the 15th.
Don’t know anything about Brad Battin other than – like Peter Dutton – he was a walloper before entering Parliament.
Wombat
I said a few days ago that nuclear power for countries like Germany made sense. Its geography, not ideology. They have cold winters, not much solar (or gas) and periods without much wind, especially in the south. So for them it makes sense.
Also for Germany it is a case of restarting what was a very high quality nuclear industry with a good safety record. They’re not starting from scratch. Completely different situation to Australia.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 8:14 pm
John Pesutto to face leadership spill on Friday.
Well, he did last until Christmas at least. I doubt he’ll survive this one politically.
===============================
A poster mentioned earlier today, that Dutton probably made a phone call to either Battin or Wilson, and said, “get the kill done sooner”, as Jan 15th is too late.
Looks like Dec 27th is the end for him.
paul A @ #1864 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 8:23 pm
And you are lying about what I said to Rainman. Which isn’t surprising coming from you. Also, he was the one who started attacking me, not vice versa. And said things that were nastier about me than anything I said in return to him. Though, of course, you completely overlook that. I would appreciate it if you didn’t make pronouncements that cover others as well. That’s just arrogance.
Also, you might not have noticed, probably you don’t want to because it doesn’t suit your spiteful narrative against me, but nadia88 and I are discussing the issues in a way where we can both put our point of view equally and respectfully. As I do with most of the other people here and except for the straight out spiteful ones with an agenda like you. Whom I would not be wrong in saying is definitely a Liberal supporter.
The USA gets at least as much solar radiation as Australia, and they get more wind.
I hate the argument we can’t do nuclear in Australia because somehow we are too stupid. We already have a nuclear industry, we already operate a nuclear reactor. We already handle nuclear isotopes and nuclear waste. We have lots of people trained in nuclear physics (including myself and my daughter). A nuclear power plant is very similar to a coal fired power plant andrequires very similar skills. The water requirements for nuclear are basically exactly the same as a coal powered plant. We are already committed to operating nuclear reactors already.
James Newbury looks like a ventriloquist dummy who came to life.
Based on what I have read Pesutto deserves to go the sooner the better.
Wombat
”In fact, the Democrats energy policy now looks a lot like Mr Dutton’s, with a massive, rapid expansion if nuclear power generation. I’ll point out that the CDU in Germany, who will almost certainly going to be the next government are looking at undoing everything they’ve done with respect to nuclear power and returning to nuclear.”
There is no comparison to Australia’s situation. The USA has a nuclear industry going back to World War 2, with the first power stations built in the 1950s. Germany is not far behind. On the other Australia would be starting from scratch. What do we do in the 25 years or so before nuclear power can make a significant contribution to Australia’s power mix? In fact there are perfectly viable renewal options which are being rolled out now. I just don’t know why we’d even bother with nuclear.
Actually I do. It’s not for nothing that Dutton’s nuclear “plan” has been called CoalKeeper.
Socrates @ #1868 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 8:32 pm
Germany has a very small amount of coastline that they can put wind farms out to sea on. They have a smaller land mass than Australia with a higher population density across the whole country thus making the sighting of large solar farms more difficult as well.
Honestly, I just don’t see why Australia needs Nuclear. In fact, it doesn’t.
Dave your post goes too far for even this tolerant place.
Also it’s quite interesting that James Newbury was the last domino to fall with the Vic Libs supporting Pesutto.
One might think that the rumours about him and a Prayer Room might be onto something.
davesays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 8:42 pm
James Newbury looks like a ventriloquist dummy who came to life.
**************************************
By the look of him, I’d certainly agree it looks like someone has their hand up his arse.
Pesutto was probably never going to win, but they have no chance now.
I wonder if he will stick around to have another go at the leadership after the next election.
Wombat
”I hate the argument we can’t do nuclear in Australia because somehow we are too stupid.”
I have not heard or read of anyone saying that.
”We already have a nuclear industry, we already operate a nuclear reactor. We already handle nuclear isotopes…”
A small one in Lucas Heights that produces medical isotopes.
…and nuclear waste.
It’s stored in barrels out the back at Lucas Heights. We’ve built no permanent facility.
We have lots of people trained in nuclear physics (including myself and my daughter). A nuclear power plant is very similar to a coal fired power plant andrequires very similar skills. The water requirements for nuclear are basically exactly the same as a coal powered plant.
So building one 100 km inland at Muswellbrook is viable?
We are already committed to operating nuclear reactors already.
Aukus? Like Dutton’s nuclear “plans”, I’m doubtful that it will ever happen. With a 7 in front of my age, I’m unlikely to see either. Meanwhile, there’s a lot more we can be getting on with and which we are doing now.
Australia built its first nuclear reactor in 1958. Same time the first commercial reactor reactor was opened in the USA.
Wombat
“ I hate the argument we can’t do nuclear in Australia because somehow we are too stupid. We already have a nuclear industry, we already operate a nuclear reactor. We already handle nuclear isotopes and nuclear waste. We have lots of people trained in nuclear physics (including myself and my daughter). A nuclear power plant is very similar to a coal fired power plant andrequires very similar skills. The water requirements for nuclear are basically exactly the same as a coal powered plant. We are already committed to operating nuclear reactors already.”
====================================================
You can’t be serious?
Firstly the problem with nuclear in Australia is economics not science. A new coal power plan is about $5B to $7B. The new Hinkley Point C plant is £41B. Its an absurd idea.
Australia has some of the best and cheapest renewable resources in the world. Most of Australia is closer to the equator than most of USA so gets much better solar energy. Likewise the wind climate along the Southern Ocean coast is ideal.
Third Nuclear reactors require vastly more engineering effort than coal power plants. Which type of nuclear plant do you think is the same as a coal plant? GenI, Gen II or Gen III? Cold water reactor, boiling water reactor or presurised water reactor? Do we establish a domestic fuel cycle or import fuel cores?
And if we already have nuclear waste sorted in Australia, please tell me where is our long term storage? I worked on the SA RC into nuclear waste disposal and I would say the problem is far from sorted. So far the only country on earth that has one is Finland. Its about forty minutes drive from my cousins’ home.
Evening all.
c@t – Yes I am a LNP supporter. I hope Dutton smashes Albo next year.
It’s OK, you can attack “right wing” posters like me, because I understand it makes you feel good and most of us from the right are used to abuse from the “left” , but Rainman is a self identified Labor supporter, yet you launch into him. You are a fanatical puricist. He actually comes across quite reasonable to me.
I have an elderly Green supporter living next to me. She is 83 years old and partially blind. I help her with her bins and she has my phone number in case she hears any strange noises at night and needs someone to come over to flash a torchlight (she lives on her own).
I could imagine if you had a conservative (or non labor voter) living next door, you would tip your rubbish over the fence out of spite.
You are heavily polarised and best ignored.
dave (Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 8:51 pm) sez:
I wonder if he will stick around to have another go at the leadership after the next election.
______________________________________________________
Or mebbe pull a Turnbull?
The Wombatsays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 8:42 pm
The USA gets at least as much solar radiation as Australia, and they get more wind.
=================================================
They also have 335 million people. While we have 27 million. So the amount of renewables to supply energy to 8% of USA population. Would supply our whole population with energy.
Thanks Dave
paul Asays:
I have an elderly Green supporter living next to me. She is 83 years old and partially blind. I help her with her bins and she has my phone number in case she hears any strange noises at night and needs someone to come over to flash a torchlight (she lives on her own).
___________________
Politics doesn’t mean much in relation to a person’s inherent qualities. Some rightwingers I have known, who have unpleasant views from my perspective, are some of the nicest people I have ever met, and do the nicest things for others.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 9:00 pm
Thanks Dave
________________
No worries. I get carried away at times.
Jess Wilson is no moderate. She helped get rid of the moderates. She is an IPA aligned Conservative. The same as what Pesutto is too.
“But it is not just the federal party that has close ties to the IPA. In Victoria, the youth wing feels its influence as well, with Ms Wilson the latest in a line of Young Liberal leaders with direct IPA ties or explicit sympathies. And it is an influence that has caused such disquiet among some members that it spilled over into the February showdown for control of the movement.”
“Jess Wilson had the weight of the IPA behind her.
An email in support of her was dispatched to members from Simon Brehany, the IPA’s policy director and the immediate past president of the Young Liberals — one of three past presidents in IPA employ at the time.
Mr Paterson was another, and the third was IPA legal fellow Aaron Lane, who was state Young Liberals president in 2013. He is Jess Wilson’s fiance.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-30/turf-wars-young-liberals/7553020
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 8:47 pm
Also it’s quite interesting that James Newbury was the last domino to fall with the Vic Libs supporting Pesutto.
=======
Newbury has been stirring up a lot of trouble in Brighton (his state seat) over the Brighton housing towers issue. The right has his back and the target is the current Federal Member – Zoe Daniel.
The housing towers issue has nothing to do with left/right “kulcha war” issues per se, it’s about tipping out Daniel and getting Goldstein back in the Libs hands. Newbury is the front man and the “angry rent a crowd” is provided by the party base, which skews conservative.
That is, Newbury now knows which side his bread is buttered.
Entropy, that argument would only magnify the apparent complete unaffordability of nuclear and increase the economic benefits of renewables. If a completely renewable energy system was feasible. The USA has easily enough landmass to generate enough renewable energy. They have huge deserts, they have enormous areas that receive huge amounts of wind, they have an enormous coast line.
They’ve worked out a purely renewable energy system won’t work. Just like every other advanced economy.
Dave I get carried away at times as well particularly when the Lions are leading by 73 points in the grand final.
Back briefly. Merry Christmas for Jim Chalmers.
https://michaelwest.com.au/pundits-wrong-australias-economy-outperforms-global-peers/
We are doing as well as we can. The problems are global.
paulA,
Helping a little old lady does not give you a permission slip to attack another.
The Wombatsays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 9:08 pm
Entropy, that argument would only magnify the apparent complete unaffordability of nuclear and increase the economic benefits of renewables. If a completely renewable energy system was feasible.
====================================================
Which for us they totally are. Many people who understand the engineering required to do it, on here. Can testify to that.
I’m little sick of hearing from people whose scientific knowledge probably goes no further than high school. Trying to lecture people with postgraduate scientific and engineering degrees what is and is not possible in the renewable energy field. One wishes that the scientific illiterate could at least understand Dunning/Kruger.
Read if you want to know how it can be done. Otherwise continue in your ignorance. If that’s what you prefer.
https://iceds.anu.edu.au/news-events/news/no-threat-farm-land-just-1200-square-kilometres-can-fulfil-australia%E2%80%99s-solar-and#:~:text=By%20my%20calculations%2C%20the%20total,required%20is%201%2C200%20square%20km.
Party hacks calling other party hacks party hacks! Whodathunkit?
(Team C@t, all the way. At least she has half decent politics and a modicum of wit.)
Meanwhile the right wing of the extreme right LNP have seized control of the VIc LNp. They have ousted the IPA faction who were pretending to be moderates. They are truly awful people. I wouldn’t vote for them or take their bins out.
Poor old Southwick, deputy leader to everybody but not once touted as leader.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 12:25 pm
Rainman @ #1715 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 11:16 am
C@tmomma,
Your entire reply is there for anyone who could be bothered reading it. But it’s pretty much just the same Albanese apologist stuff you usually write.
I’ll put my union and Labor party credentials up against anyone here. I’m just not a party hack like you. And no one player is greater than the team.
*golfclap*
Frankly, Rainman, I dispute your superior ‘party and union credentials’ if you cannot find it within yourself to acknowledge a party member who has achieved more than it seems you ever will. To call me a ‘party hack’ just proves to me what a feckless party member you must be. To me you’re just another crank who thinks that the Labor Party should be all about THEM. Pfft!
===================
See c@t the use of the adjective “superior”, which rainman never mentioned, guides your way of thinking. You “imagine” what someone has said, and then you launch into an attack beyond all proportions. Why? Insecure in your beliefs perhaps.
Do you enjoy attacking over people’s points of view.? Obviously the answer is yes.
You’re a classic bigot.
middle aged balding white mansays:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 9:23 pm
Party hacks calling other party hacks party hacks! Whodathunkit?
(Team C@t, all the way. At least she has half decent politics and a modicum of wit.)
Meanwhile the right wing of the extreme right LNP have seized control of the VIc LNp. They have ousted the IPA faction who were pretending to be moderates. They are truly awful people. I wouldn’t vote not take their bins out.
Poor old Southwick, deputy leader to everybody but not once touted as leader.
===================================================
Are you calling him the Julie Bishop of the Victorian Libs?
This is a very elucidating article about how Ruben Gallego managed to get Trump Republicans to vote for him in Arizona and also his prescription for the Democrats to win back Latino voters (free to read):
https://wapo.st/3DECghh
Stooge @ #1710 Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 11:08 am
Ummm. WTF?