Two concluding New South Wales state polls for the year, neither exactly hot off the press:
• Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Monitor feature has been updated with the bi-monthly state poll result, which doesn’t seem to have been reported on in the pages of Sydney Morning Herald. This has the Coalition steady on 37%, Labor up one to 33%, the Greens steady on 11% and independents down one to 13%, suggesting a Labor lead of around 51-49 on two-party preferred. Chris Minns leads Mark Speakman 35-17 as preferred premier, in from 37-14. The poll combines the New South Wales components of Resolve Strategic’s last two monthly surveys, with a combined sample of 1000.
• As noted here previously, there was a RedBridge Group poll a fortnight ago that had credited Labor with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 41% and Greens 9% (down from 9.7%). The poll was also conducted November 6 to 20, from a sample of 1088.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of NSW politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Minns like a lot of smarter govs gets the bad stuff out early then improves towards the next election rather than the Fed labor government who is retrenching in the polls the closer it gets to the election.
Mind you Minns does not appear to have much personal appeal maybe a makeover?
The RTBU in NSW is not doing themselves any favors as their industrial disputes is vindicating the previous governments decision to set up a totally new railway organisation called “Metro” that is privately run and let the existing legacy remnant of the grand old NSWGR die on the vine. Sad but that is the reality that the RTBU and its “Working Class Tory” membership hasn’t got their heads around yet if they ever will.
The Libs are going to have to start looking at replacing Speakman in the next 6 months if he isn’t cutting through. I can’t see anything changing for him. I think the Coalition should be looking at the next election as very winnable.
Probable alp govt reelected. They have not made any major mistakes despite the tightening of the opinion polls. Speakman was one of the few liberal mimisters who did not get into trouble.
I’d agree the ALP should be expected to win the next election, but I’d interpret the polls as neck-and-neck. This should be an election where the Coalition plays to win, but it doesn’t seem they can with Speakman. Not at the moment. It may be he starts to assert himself more, but I struggle to see it.
I think the government is in a lot of trouble. The issues brewing in health are enough to bring a government down.
Let’s not forget that ALP is already a minority Govt. The redbridge poll represents a 4% swing to Libs & Nats which would net 6 seats. Plus Ind retirement in Wagga and possible win in Wollondilly – do the maths!!
Minns, like Albo, is timid and jumps at his own shadow whenever he is challenged on a policy.
Unlike Albo, he is a pretty boy and can talk his way out of anything. He’s also blessed with an innocuous and dour opposition leader.
Libs will do well to hold their ground in 2027, they’re not beating Minns.
It’s amazing how many non-Labor voters tell me that they like him which indicates to me that any swing in the polls is more down to Federal drag.
Speako can’t win and there’s no one else at the moment. The only prospect I see in the current Parliament is Kellie Sloane and she’s a newbie who I suspect will become leader after the election.
Amazing that this Labor Govt has blown it in exactly the same way – excessive wage settlements to keep public sector unions happy.
Also a do nothing govt with nothing to show on the housing front – unlikely to be rewarded in 2 yrs time. The only thing which will save them is if the Libs blow up – which is always a significant chance with the Libs.
Minns is well liked, and he presents well on TV and in the media. There’s not a state election due until March 2027, and in the meantime federal factors are more of a drag on Labor’s state vote in NSW.
Mark Speakman is invisible as Opposition Leader, even the normally conservative 2GB gives him zero coverage or airplay, the Premier has a weekly spot on Ben Fordham’s breakfast radio program.
These polls seem in line with other recent NSW polling. If the federal election gives us Dutton, I’d think Minns would be confident about his chances in 2027. If it’s Albanese, presumably in minority, the LNP might fancy their chances in NSW. But a lot can happen in 2 years. Speakman is a decent, inoffensive person, but completely ineffective as Opposition leader. Natalie Ward would be a better media performer.
I strongly disagree with Minns policies in a number of areas, like land tax and gambling reform, but to suggest he is responsible for the housing crisis in NSW is laughable. We’ve just had 12 years of LNP rule in NSW, 9 of those with the LNP in Canberra as well. Yet Minns is the cause of the problem? He’s been far more active in rezoning to allow higher density around transport hubs-it’s local government which is trying to stop that, not Minns. As for excessive wage settlements to keep unions happy, the use of the word “unions” seems to be a device used by the LNP to dehumanise nurses, teachers, police and others on the public payroll. I absolutely understand that state governments need to limit debt, I don’t want NSW to end up like Victoria, but how about we acknowledge that nurses/teachers/police are real people who have legitimate claims to be paid a decent wage?
I think NSW may be about to confront a mass walk out of senoir medical staff. A trickle has turned in to a torrent and it’s about to become a tsunami. These things become exponential, as chronic understaffing leds to unsustainable workloads which enter a feedback loop.
It’s now 2/3rd of all staff specialist psychiatrists who have quit. In fact, as only a little over 50% of positions were filled in the first place, this means currently only about 80 positions out of about 459 positions across the state will be filled across the state. And there talk of other specialist groups joining in.
Wombat
A major issue which may be fixed by a large amount of money to bring NSW up to the level of other states.
The Minns government, under the influence of Hayes, hasn’t accepted that yet