The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review (presently available online in the paper’s subscriber-only digital edition) records no change of consequence on voting intention, with the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor steady on the primary vote at 30%, the Coalition down one to 40% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and up two to 41%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 44-43 to 43-42.
The poll also finds 55% believe the world will be less safe with Donald Trump as President, compared with 28% for safer, and that 47% consider Peter Dutton “better placed to engage and negotiate” with Trump, compared with 36% for Anthony Albanese. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1046.
BKsays:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:40 pm
George (The Animal) Steele had a penchant for eating the stuffing of the turnbuckle padding.
______________
That memory should stay in the 1980s.
Are we sure this isn’t Boerwar?
I do hope that the Greens are studying what is happening to foreign capital in the Workers Paradise Where Half of Heaven is Held up by Women and where Political Power Grows out of the Barrel of a Gun.
And WHY it is happening.
Does it matter that our biggest export destination is doing economics like the Greens?
I use to go to the wrestling with dad when he had no-one to go with at festival hall early 70’s.
The old well dressed woman scared the pants off me.
“Kill him, kill him”
Speaking of energy, things could get bad over the heatwave this weekend, with Lack of Reserve level 3 warnings issued for NSW and Queensland.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/20/heatwave-forecast-for-southeastern-australia-triggers-energy-supply-and-fire-danger-warnings
I imagine we’ll be seeing lots more of those issued in 10 years’ time if the Coalition gets back in and extends the operations of ageing Coal power plants that increasingly have to run at full capacity during more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Various national branches of the Patriarchy are having conniptions about population declines.
And then along comes Elonia Trump…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/19/he-has-already-fathered-many-children-now-musk-wants-all-of-the-us-to-embrace-extreme-breeding
Boerwar @ #957 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:52 pm
I’ve noticed a distinct increase of right wing young men talking about impregnation fantasies lately. Especially after Musk implied that he would offer to impregnate Taylor Swift.
dave @ #948 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:35 pm
The Catholics already are in the Liberal Party. It’s the Evangelicals who are now moving in. They are all against abortion. Whether Catholics or Evangelicals are appointed to the Supreme Court is irrelevant. Speaker Mike Johnson, guess what he is? Not Catholic. Guess what he is? An Evangelical. No difference. Leonard Leo of The Heritage Foundation, who supplied Trump’s picks to him is an Ultra Conservative Catholic, as is Kevin Roberts, the principal author of Project 2025. Trump owed them his support in exchange for the support they gave him. That’s about all it was for Trump. A transaction. So, ultimately your argument is in search of a point.
In Australia, the ACL is a Christian Evangelical organisation aiming to bring religion into politics. That’s all that counts. These people, whether they be Opus Dei Catholics or Evangelicals, all want to overturn the progress that has been made in Australia wrt the rights and freedoms women have fought long and hard to obtain.
Kirsdarke @ #957 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:55 pm
It’s just the rebadged ‘Quiver Full’ ethos with a New Bro slant.
The options in Pension Phase for accrued superannuation include regular payments, so weekly, fortnightly, monthly etc. etc.
Me? I take my Allocated Pension annually, paid to my bank account on 30th June annually – and from there place the amount into a “Sinking Fund” account which then pays me a weekly income to my operating account.
There are 3 liquid accounts, my operating account, my “Sinking Fund” account and my Contingency account (funds on Term Deposit and invested in Shares).
The problem with this Industry and those who offer opinion is that they most obviously are not individuals in retirement, using the superannuation options to provide for their lifestyle and, as a consequence, have no knowledge.
The Life Insurance component is optional, which I do not avail of.
I will fess up that, between my wife and me (including because I have made non deductible contributions in her name, she still able to contribute to accrual phase then convert immediately to pension) we have some $2.8 Million in accrued superannuation, paying our pensions (as of 30/06/2024, returns since easily in double figures, so money makes money, the allocated pension draw on 30/06/2025 already covered, noting you never count your chickens because things happen such as Markets going down, Yields going up)
The reason for taking our Pension drawing annually is to arrive at the sum of return on funds annually then does that return exceed the drawing (and if it does not I make a contribution to maintain the core balance over my wife’s and my accounts)
To give an example, over the last 10 years, Black Rock Balanced Funds has returned 11.13% PA, so more that doubling the balance over that 10 years.
The drawing rate has varied from 5% to 6% (based on age) noting that at any time since 2008, when the government has allowed a 50% of the stipulated amount (so 2.5% instead of 5%) we have taken advantage of that offer.
There is a provision for lump sum payments in addition to Pension payments but the equation for us is an increasing balance every year paying an increased pension to cover inflation.
The funds I mention have accrued from remitting to superannuation from Day 1 in the workforce (also for my wife) and, across the majority of the accrual period, for me, at a rate above the stipulated amount after superannuation became universal, so 15% to 20% when the children moved to employment so self sufficient then to 30% nearing retirement (taking tax advice)
So the funds referred to are wholly self generated by discipline starting with the mid 1980’s objective to have $1 Million in superannuation on retirement (no inheritance as both our parents were Aged Pensioners living in modest housing -particularly on today’s house prices!! – so no Estate of any consequence).
And proud of that self achievement.
The magic pudding of compounding and time, writ large (and the reason Dutton is just so dangerous, attacking accruals as they have during the Pandemic and now to withdraw for housing – the period of accrual included the Stock Market crash of 1961, immediately upon entering the workforce – but still studying at Uni on employers time – the Stock Market crashes of 1987, 2008 and then the Pandemic crash, so it is not always plain sailing and to the contrary)
And, quite frankly, if I can so achieve so can anyone including rising from a junior position to a senior position.
Noting the whingers on this site and elsewhere across media.
Well here is one group that doesn’t think much of Australia’s climate performance – a drop of 2 places to 52nd in the world in the last 12 months:
https://ccpi.org/country/aus/
‘Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:55 pm
Boerwar @ #957 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:52 pm
Various national branches of the Patriarchy are having conniptions about population declines.
And then along comes Elonia Trump…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/19/he-has-already-fathered-many-children-now-musk-wants-all-of-the-us-to-embrace-extreme-breeding
I’ve noticed a distinct increase of right wing young men talking about impregnation fantasies lately. Especially after Musk implied that he would offer to impregnate Taylor Swift.’
======================
There is some discussion of Comrades’ rape camps. This is, IMO, entirely speculative at this stage.
What isn’t speculative is the personal/local Party Committee ‘get pregnant’ harrassment women are receiving when they marry. (It reminds me a bit of what happened in rural Dutch catholic households as late as the 1950’s where the priest would be in the living room wondering why the Catholic Mum was not pregnant again within 12 months of giving birth the last time.)
Before people recoil in horror and disbelief about Comrades’ rape camps, they should contemplate the truly vicious personal and state brutality involved in the forced abortion of 30 million million fetuses.
dave @ #952 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:44 pm
Oh, I thought it was Trump and former WWE mouthpiece, Steven Cheung:
Oh, and what do you know? Trump’s love affair with the WWE crew continues:
President-elect Trump announced on Tuesday that he will nominate Linda McMahon to serve as secretary of the Education Department on Tuesday.
McMahon was named in a lawsuit last month along with her husband, Vince McMahon, accusing World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) leaders of allowing years of sexual abuse of young boys by a ringside announcer. She co-founded WWE with her husband and left in 2009 to run for a Senate seat in Connecticut.
https://thehill.com/homenews/4999252-trump-nominates-linda-mcmahon-to-lead-education-department/
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:58 pm
Well here is one group that doesn’t think much of Australia’s climate performance – a drop of 2 places to 52nd in the world in the last 12 months:
https://ccpi.org/country/aus/‘
=================
Only the complete destruction of the coal, oil and gas industries right now would satisfy them, I believe.
Steven Cheung looks like an adult-sized baby.
Trump has not yet been sworn in and already things are starting to fall apart in the US and its tribute-making dependencies. I think his plan is to sow chaos. Disorder is his thing. Perhaps the Ultra-Reactionary plot is to cause as much mayhem as possible.
It will become essential to disconnect from the US.
My favourites were Killer Kolowski & Brut Bernard (sorry about the spelling. I’m posting from my phone).
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/11/18/freshwater-strategy-51-49-to-coalition-open-thread-3/comment-page-20/#comment-4405773, hmmm, in the end of the day, there’s been an Australia Future Fund for pollyTICs/ etc, but Labs offloaded pension-rights from defined-contribution to contribution-based superannuation; these days I would appear voter patterns are changing …
And chances are they’ll do the same thing over climate disruption.
$$Ns that would only be delivered in if the USN doesn’t need them.
Health.
Inequality, apparently there’s dough for subs but not the homeless?
Governance, forget it, just the two major parties duopoly.
So yeah, after the next Australia Federal Election, I’d like to see more crossbenchers, and the major parties duopoly in minority fed gov.
After all, even TDJT asked the ‘are you feeling better off’ question!
So today labor introduced its bill for gender quotas but where is the disability quota because Albo really should be doing both because they are interconnected.
‘Mavis says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:12 pm
My favourites were Killer Kolowski & Brut Bernard (sorry about the spelling. I’m posting from my phone).’
===================
Ah. Yes. The Kolowski Claw Hold!
Mavis
As far as wrestlers go, the one with the worst record in Australia was Braker Cortez who had 34 matches for zero wins. He seemed to be rolled out whenever there was a short amount of time remaining to fill the bill. There are no decent phots remaining which is testament to his fame.
VCT Et3e says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:12 pm
The Reactionaries have been on the ascent for years now. They are winning. Be assured. They absolutely detest the Greens and their ilk. They will set out to destroy you….to erase you from the landscape.
The Labor-phobic Left just do not get it. They never have. The Mindless Reactionaries want to annul you and everything that you believe in. Given a chance, they will.
Like the Mindless ones themselves, you’ve learned nothing other than new ways to hate Labor.
Cat at 4.08 pm, nadia88 at 4.13 pm, blackburnpseph at 1.08 pm
Labor did almost well against Turnbull in 2016. Don’t you recall the late John Clarke with his very funny lampooning of Bill Shorten for his victory lap after that mere podium finish? In a still largely two party race in the Reps, a win is a win, as Ms Plibersek later said in 2022.
Turnbull was a poor campaigner, except in fund-raising (from his purse). Because he was a poor campaigner, the 8-week campaign in 2016 drove the LNP vote down, but not far enough.
The opinion of Boerwar at the time was that Turnbull was saved by Brexit, which swamped the news with heightened uncertainty in the last week of the campaign.
An election called for 17 May would, in effect, be something like a 4 week campaign rather than the standard 5 week one, as Blackburn Pseph@ noted. J. Howard used a sort of 4 week campaign in 1998 in his marginally successful campaign to impose a GST on the ignorant; it was really a 4 week campaign because the first part coincided with the Commonwealth Games and the benefit was to Howard because he had a great big new tax to hide from lots of plebs.
The situation in 2025 will be different. Dutton has a dud nuclear policy to hide. So he needs a short campaign. Hence his bleating last week that a March election would be too early.
Stooge @ #968 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:11 pm
The ultra-rich tend to go very well in times of chaos. Look at how well most of them went through the 2008 Global Recession.
Kirsdarke @ #976 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:26 pm
Just for Nath’s sake:
Chaos isn’t a pit, chaos is a ladder
https://youtu.be/MwpPSnOFO6Y?si=-7DS1VqlMOZYs-Oo
‘Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:26 pm
Stooge @ #968 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:11 pm
Trump has not yet been sworn in and already things are starting to fall apart in the US and its tribute-making dependencies. I think his plan is to sow chaos. Disorder is his thing. Perhaps the Ultra-Reactionary plot is to cause as much mayhem as possible.
It will become essential to disconnect from the US.
The ultra-rich tend to go very well in times of chaos. Look at how well most of them went through the 2008 Global Recession.’
================
Perhaps. China has lost about a quarter of its billionaires in the last year or so.
Oakeshott Country @ #961 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:58 pm
I’m only surprised we still rank that high …
‘Dr Doolittle says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:26 pm
Cat at 4.08 pm, nadia88 at 4.13 pm, blackburnpseph at 1.08 pm
Labor did almost well against Turnbull in 2016. Don’t you recall the late John Clarke with his very funny lampooning of Bill Shorten for his victory lap after that mere podium finish? In a still largely two party race in the Reps, a win is a win, as Ms Plibersek later said in 2022.
Turnbull was a poor campaigner, except in fund-raising (from his purse). Because he was a poor campaigner, the 8-week campaign in 2016 drove the LNP vote down, but not far enough.
The opinion of Boerwar at the time was that Turnbull was saved by Brexit, which swamped the news with heightened uncertainty in the last week of the campaign.
An election called for 17 May would, in effect, be something like a 4 week campaign rather than the standard 5 week one, as Blackburn Pseph@ noted. J. Howard used a sort of 4 week campaign in 1998 in his marginally successful campaign to impose a GST on the ignorant; it was really a 4 week campaign because the first part coincided with the Commonwealth Games and the benefit was to Howard because he had a great big new tax to hide from lots of plebs.
The situation in 2025 will be different. Dutton has a dud nuclear policy to hide. So he needs a short campaign. Hence his bleating last week that a March election would be too early.’
======================================
My guess is that Dutton’s nuclear policy will only succeed in eliminating climate as an election issue. Which is something.
It will be COL/migration, IMO, with a compliant MSM falling into line and talking about nothing much else.
‘Player One says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:34 pm
Oakeshott Country @ #961 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:58 pm
Well here is one group that doesn’t think much of Australia’s climate performance – a drop of 2 places to 52nd in the world in the last 12 months:
https://ccpi.org/country/aus/
I’m only surprised we still rank that high …
Australia drops two ranks in the current CCPI, to 52nd and among the low-performing countries. It receives a medium rating in GHG Emissions, low in Renewable Energy and Climate Policy, and very low in Energy Use.’
===================
It is heartening to see that we are ranked ABOVE China.
@Boerwar
That’s probably because China tends to disappear its billionaires when they stuff up.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/11/19/dr-oz-medicare-medicaid-obamacare-trump/
It’s like the reality TV cabinet. And I’m not sure why you would be alarmed at this appointment, when Trump has picked a Russian apologist as DNI Secretary, the B-show Fox n Friends weekend host for Defence Secretary, and a wellness conspiracy theorist for HHS Secretary.
Dr Oz is just the latest in a long line of crazy picks in this cornucopia of whackaloons making up Trump’s cabinet.
‘Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:36 pm
@Boerwar
That’s probably because China tends to disappear its billionaires when they stuff up.’
====================
There are four things, I believe.
1. Some billionaires have been disappeared – not because they have stuffed up but because they were too successful and a perceived threat to Xi.
2. Some have done a runner and shifted O/S.
3. Very few new ones have been added to the list as the economy struggles. (The official 5% growth rate is in Renminbi. If it was denominated in US dollars it would be at or below zero.)
4. Most of the ones who have disappeared were over-leveraged in the property sector.
Boerwar @ #980 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:35 pm
Don’t worry – we only need to drop a few more places. Which we will. Or they could rise a few more places. Which they will.
Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:26 pm
I think the Reactionaries want to supplant the Republic. They hate it. They despise its rules and conventions, its systems and modes. They will try to bring about its downfall. Trump is no constitutionalist. He’s a despot. The s%^^ will hit the fan for democracy….for elective government and the rule of law.
We’ve had a few hundred years since The Glorious Revolution in Britain and the creation of representative government, but this is not long. The Reactionaries in the UK have the numbers, though are currently split. They will regroup with a commitment to destroy social democracy and the values of equality on which its premised.
The owners of the United States have obviously lost their commitment to the Republic..to the forms of even limited or partial democracy in that country. They want to gut the social estate almost entirely.
It’s very serious.
All of the gains of the Enlightenment, of the Reformation, of the triumphs of Democracy over totalitarian power are in jeopardy. The means for this – the control of information and its dissemination – already exist.
At a fundamental level, humans are increasingly obsolete. We are to be phased out….to be replaced by smart machines that don’t need to be educated, that don’t vote, that don’t encroach on the power of their owners, that don’t require a social estate of any kind.
What could go wrong?! But this is what Americans wanted: someone who would come in a shake up Washington. I don’t think they factored in just how much the government wheels need to keep moving smoothly in order to provide the bevy of services people rely on.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/19/trump-transition-fbi-state-gsa/
‘Player One says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:43 pm
Boerwar @ #980 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:35 pm
It is heartening to see that we are ranked ABOVE China.
Don’t worry – we only need to drop a few more places. Which we will. Or they could rise a few more places. Which they will.’
================
Oh. I am not worried.
China, which burns more coal than ALL the rest of the world combined, is down there with Australia.
Which pretty well tells you how useful the Index really is.
Boerwar @ #987 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:45 pm
And Australia, which exports more carbon than almost anyone else in the world, is up there with China.
So yes you may be right – this may not be a useful index. After all, China does much more than us to reduce emissions. It is Australia who are the climate laggards.
As noted, China which burns more coal than ALL the rest of the world combined is down there with Australia, which is making good progress towards achieving 43/30.
The Index is useless except for peeps who have a compulsive desire to flog Oz.
Yes, the majority who voted for Trump deserve the crazy shit they’re about to get for the next 4 years, the shame is those who voted for the saner candidate will cop it too.
I’m fully expecting Hulk Hogan to get a gig in the Trump clown show White House.
RUOK player 1?
I ask only because hitherto, I have never known you to admit to being wrong, still less that you had underestimated alp performance in anything positive, still less anything to do with preventing climate change.
But here you go . . .
Player One says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:34 pm
Oakeshott Country @ #961 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:58 pm
Well here is one group that doesn’t think much of Australia’s climate performance – a drop of 2 places to 52nd in the world in the last 12 months:
https://ccpi.org/country/aus/
I’m only surprised we still rank that high
Trumpists really want revenge on the hated wokeists, and so they are enjoying the outrage generated by their picks. They are probably going to rebuild confederate memorials and more of that sort of nasty hurtful and insulting behaviour.
How can they go ahead with the mass deportations when it will cause so much damage to the farmers.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-mass-deportation-farmers-1987371
Causing panic, the article says. No paywall.
I was listening to a talk by Nicholas Eberstadt when one of those pennies dropped.
The initial impact of the demographic collapse is chaotic. Inter alia the inverted demographic pyramids result in very few workers propping up an aged mass. We all know about that.
But after that… there is the prospect of a steady state slow decline. Which had not occurred to me.
His figure for South Korea was a long term population decline of 3% per annum after the initial perturbation.
Windhover @ #991 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:53 pm
I’m fine thanks. Just waiting for the government to announce our updated emissions reductions target.
Boy, am I excited at the prospect! What you do reckon? 65%? 75%? 85%
I can hardly wait! You?
Whatever it is, it will be achievable. It will be on the road to zero net fifty.
And it will be achieved.
Which is, I suspect, what really gets up the noses of the Extreme Greens et al.
No need to overthink it.
Just fill the zone with shit.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/lessons-in-how-to-win-an-american-election/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
In the past 100 years America has had two mass deportation events where Mexican Americans, including American citizens were illegally deported back to Mexico.
Team Trump is definitely gearing up again for a third mass deportation. I think the only thing we can say with any certainty at this point, based on the outcomes from the previous two deportations is that there will be US citizens swept up in the raids (or however it is carried out), and there will be cruelty and inhumanity inflicted upon deportees.
Trump’s cabinet looking more and more like Dr. Evil’s henchmen every day.
I’m guessing that Elon is meant to be the Goldmember of the group, Susie Wiles is the Frau Farbissina, Marco Rubio would be Number 2, Pete Hegseth would be Random Task, Steven Cheung or Steve Bannon would be Fat Bastard, Matt Gaetz would probably be the Mini-Me in that I’m 90% sure that he bites people.
Doubting that Don Jr. or Eric are smart enough to be Scott. Maybe Barron.
And the other certainty based on the past efforts is that mass deportations targetting people of colour is that those not targetted always end up turning upon those who are. Whether they are neighbours, workmates, parents of children your kids go to school with, your employees. Very nasty business.
I wonder whether there will he the ‘Help’ exemptions and farm worker exemptions?