Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Peter Dutton deemed “better placed to engage and negotiate with” a President who will make the world “less safe”.

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review (presently available online in the paper’s subscriber-only digital edition) records no change of consequence on voting intention, with the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor steady on the primary vote at 30%, the Coalition down one to 40% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and up two to 41%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 44-43 to 43-42.

The poll also finds 55% believe the world will be less safe with Donald Trump as President, compared with 28% for safer, and that 47% consider Peter Dutton “better placed to engage and negotiate” with Trump, compared with 36% for Anthony Albanese. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1046.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,085 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. “Dutton’s Abortion Achilles Heel on abortion, ”

    Interesting that in QLD. The incoming premier ruled it out, called it a “scare campaign” and then has felt the need to try and lay down the law on that again after the election ……

    He would not have had to do that unless there were significant pressures for it in his party in QLD …so it’s not actually a “scare” campaign but an issue that could break out into the public domain at any time.

  2. Saw in the mainstream media today an article about the federal government considering superannuation changes where retirees will be able to have more options of regular withdrawals rather than a lump sum payout.

    Of course, this was met with vitriol in the comments accusing the government of STEALING their super. Albo and his ministers just cannot take a trick. Under Dutton if super becomes optional, people will be able to get more take home pay!

    What happens to your super in retirement if for some reason your super fund goes bust? Does this mean there is some merit in taking a full lump sum payment? All this could be moot because in a few years there will be no compulsory super anymore.

  3. 19m ago
    14.21 AEDT
    Kylea Tink asks about use of public money to pay interest on political party loans

    Independent MP Kylea Tink has asked the treasurer how the government can justify allowing public money to be used to pay the interest on political party loans, while ordinary Australians are struggling?

    The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said minister Don Farrell “has been working for some time in a consultative way to do what we can to make sure that our donations regime is as transparent as possible, and that we take responsible and necessary steps to lessen the impact of big money on politics.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/nov/20/australia-politics-live-wednesday-economy-cost-of-living-question-time-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-students-immigration-gps

    Good question.

    …and a non-answer by Chalmers.

    Blatant misuse of public money. Terrible stuff here from Lab and Lib.

  4. FUBAR:

    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 2:14 pm

    I don’t know why I bother, but as long as it’s not a child or grandchild of yours. You see, teens don’t always do as their
    father tells them, even if they have a military background, perhaps less so. Teens taking illicit drugs is referred to as
    adolescent experimentation. You should familiarise yourself with same, as I’m sure you’ve done nothing illegal in your life.

  5. Imacca 2.41

    Exactly right. Dutton’s concern that there be no LNP MPs crusading against abortion rights proves that Steven Miles’ claims during the Qld election campaign were on the money. Otherwise why even say anything?

    Added to the recent attempt by SA Upper House LNP members to sneak an abortion ban through, and there is a valid fear that any new LNP government will have enough RW religious fundy members to challenge abortion rights in Australia.

    Its not a scare campaign if you are warning people of what the majority of opposition MPs actually think.

  6. Too right Socrates, Labor was accused of a scare campaign on abortion yet the backbench has to be warned off making changes and don’t seem too happy about it. At some point the Katter boys will introduce a bill and we will see how that goes. Meanwhile the LNP had ads on heavy rotation stating that Labor would end bulk billing, now that was far fetched!!!

  7. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 3:13 pm
    Is there a pick 0 before pick 1 in the AFL draft tonight …?
    _____________________
    My little niece could be a WAG after tonight. Looking like he will go Top 10.

  8. I see that Clive Palmer is still hiding behind the Teals and that the Teals themselves are not fessing up to having run single candidate single seat campaign funds of over $2 million.

    Labor reducing that to less than half is an excellent outcome for Australian democracy.

  9. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 3:13 pm
    Is there a pick 0 before pick 1 in the AFL draft tonight …?
    ___________________________
    Levi Ashcroft could be that…

  10. tripitaka:

    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 3:39 pm

    [‘Mavis, I think FUBAR is trolling.

    He can’t be serious?’]

    I don’t think he’s trolling. His post is not out of character. He sees nearly everything as Manichean. I blame his time in the army & the apostle Mani.

  11. dave:

    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 3:46 pm

    [‘I feel a bit sorry for Hulk Hogan getting passed over for a Cabinet position.’]

    Fear not. Linda McMahon will get him a seat in Trump’s cabinet as her research assistant. His first project will be to
    find a shirt that rips more easily than the one he wore at Trump’s MSG rally:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-dyjv8ehRU

  12. Dutton is being a dill.

    $600 billion for four per cent of energy supplies in 2050 on sites that have been knocked back.

    Additional cost to households per annum on current costs, $1200.

    And that is before the Nationals put their cap on renewables. (Is there any other party in the whole wide world that WANTS to put a cap on private renewables investment?)

    And those nuclear builds ALWAYS go over budget and over time.

    What could possibly go wRONg?

  13. Frankly, I hate how we’re importing the stupid right wing culture war here. Just let abortion be legal and accessible. If Catholics, Muslims or any other religious group don’t like abortion, then they shouldn’t get one.

    It should not be a hot button issue. Keep that shit in America. We have enough on our plates without having to deal with RW identarian culture war distractions.

  14. ‘Wat Tyler says:
    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:03 pm

    Frankly, I hate how we’re importing the stupid right wing culture war here.
    ….’
    ==================
    What ‘we’? It is ‘they’.
    It is the religionist crazies who have infiltrated the Liberal and Nationals Parties whom Dutton cannot shut down. But does Dutton really want to? Gina was sooling Trumpism onto Dutton the night after the election.

  15. Blackburnpseph @ #856 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 1:06 pm

    One reason for not going in May is that Easter is very late in 2025. Easter Sunday is 20 April so there is a four day week followed by a three day week – peoples minds will be elsewhere in those crucial weeks before pre poll starts.

    Back after going to a funeral for one of our former federal candidates for Robertson. Campaigned and lost against Liberal Jim Lloyd. 🙁

    Can I just say in answer to the speculation above by Blackburnpseph, that I remember that Labor did quite well against Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 when the election was in May. Lots of opportunities for the candidates to be seen out and about in the electorate commemorating Holy Days and ANZAC Day. 🙂

    It was a damn cold, wet and windy proposition though. 🙁

  16. Wat

    Lib and Lab both chock full of religious types determined to impose their faith on general society.

    Religious faith should be a personal undertaking. Keep it out of the parliament.

  17. ‘Wat Tyler says:
    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:09 pm

    What ‘we’? It is ‘they’

    “We” meaning Australia.

    It was obvious from context.’
    ================
    It is not ‘Australia’ either. It is, specifically, the Liberal and National Parties. It is no accident, either.

  18. Wat Tyler @ #924 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 4:03 pm

    Frankly, I hate how we’re importing the stupid right wing culture war here. Just let abortion be legal and accessible. If Catholics, Muslims or any other religious group don’t like abortion, then they shouldn’t get one.

    It should not be a hot button issue. Keep that shit in America. We have enough on our plates without having to deal with RW identarian culture war distractions.

    Wat, there are enough Evangelicals in Australia now, with much funding coming from America, that they can afford to wage these rearguard actions here, apropos their success in America. It may have taken them 50+ years to finally succeed in America, once they found their political avatar and cult leader/demagogue/evangelist for their cause, but they did and I’m sure they will not tire until they succeed in rolling back the gains in Australia as well.

    Not that they will succeed. 🙂

    But they’ll use every communication trick in the book, and then some, appropriating AI as they did in the Voice campaign. We just have to hope that the forces of darkness don’t succeed in exculpating Alan Jones for his sins in the same way they did to Donald Trump. If that happens, we’re forked!

  19. Boerwar, I recall not too long ago your “economic trends will see the return of the government” listicle used to include “two guaranteed interest rate cuts pre-election, with one before the end of the year”. When did that drop off?

  20. Dutton’s nuclear policy would push out any further effective actions by 20 years, assuming that the Coalition actually has any intention of implementing it. Its main purpose is to halt the rollout of renewable energy.

  21. ‘Stinker says:
    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:21 pm

    Boerwar, I recall not too long ago your “economic trends will see the return of the government” listicle used to include “two guaranteed interest rate cuts pre-election, with one before the end of the year”. When did that drop off?’
    ===============
    Trump has probably killed it stone dead with his talk of 100% tariffs. That is inflationary. You would need to consult with the turkeys who voted for Trump thinking that he knew what he was talking about when he promised that 100% tariffs would REDUCE prices.

    Gobble, gobble, gobble…

  22. A massive solar farm that can power 51,000 homes is the second investment of Victoria’s revived State Electricity Commission, Premier Jacinta Allan has announced.

    Speaking from Horsham in the state’s west on Wednesday morning, Allan said it was a big moment because the solar farm would be the first 100 per cent government-owned energy generation project since the commission was privatised in the 1990s.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/sec-to-build-solar-farm-to-power-more-than-50-000-victorian-homes-20241120-p5ks5q.html

    Nice.

  23. Lib and Lab both chock full of religious types determined to impose their faith on general society.

    Religious faith should be a personal undertaking. Keep it out of the parliament.
    __________
    Rex D
    Absolutely!

  24. “Gina was sooling Trumpism onto Dutton the night after the election.”

    My disgust for that horrid individual is limitless. 🙁 Still, it does make working out who to vote for easy. find out who Gina the Hutt supports and preference them last.

    Yup, the nuclear crap is … well … crap. But its something I think low info credulous punters (Lib / Nat voters) can be turned on to with enough repetition of short pithy phrases that they are want to hear.

  25. ‘Dee says:
    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    Shanahan believes Dutts nuclear policy is going to give the ALP a wedgy.
    ….’
    ===============
    Marles (along with those behind him) were openly laughing at His Majesty’s loyal opposition during QT today. Glow in the Dark Ted and Nuclear Button Dutton along with, I believe, the Member for Flying Planes Around all had a go.

    It is nice to see the climate bastards hoist on their nuclear petard.

  26. Wow, so the return of the Australian Government is dependent on the whims of the voters in America.

    You were right all along, Boer – we really did need a Plan B.

    If only the Government had had one.

    (The problem with your constant spamming is that it sticks for some of us, and it’s a lot of fun to see your prognostications fail. Gobble gobble.)

  27. ‘Stinker says:
    Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 4:29 pm

    Wow, so the return of the Australian Government is dependent on the whims of the voters in America.
    ….’
    ==============
    You probably think that Trump’s 100% tariffs will not affect Australia. Gobble. Gobble. Gobble.

  28. C@tmommasays:

    Wat, there are enough Evangelicals in Australia now, with much funding coming from America, that they can afford to wage these rearguard actions here, apropos their success in America. It may have taken them 50+ years to finally succeed in America, once they found their political avatar and cult leader/demagogue/evangelist for their cause, but they did and I’m sure they will not tire until they succeed in rolling back the gains in Australia as well.
    _________________________
    What are you going on about? Trump overturned Roe vs Wade by appointing Catholics to the Supreme Court.

  29. I seem to remember that the hulkster threatened to come after anyone who didn’t vote for the Trumpster. This obviously worked so you’d reckon he’d get a guernsey in some capacity in the administration. Maybe in charge of entertainment, sideshows and circuses?

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