The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review (presently available online in the paper’s subscriber-only digital edition) records no change of consequence on voting intention, with the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor steady on the primary vote at 30%, the Coalition down one to 40% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and up two to 41%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 44-43 to 43-42.
The poll also finds 55% believe the world will be less safe with Donald Trump as President, compared with 28% for safer, and that 47% consider Peter Dutton “better placed to engage and negotiate” with Trump, compared with 36% for Anthony Albanese. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1046.
Centre – we don’t have high inflation.
None of those things that you say are high, are high due to energy prices. Energy prices are at the level they are because not enough new generation was built for 10 years, thanks to the Liberals not being able to provide an investment environment where people knew what the rules would be.
None of it related to action on climate change – renewables generation, especially home PV is helping keep prices down.
See, a comment as bereft of evidence as your was.
Good on the Crows for picking Sid Draper at 4. A good South Australian lad from South Adelaide. Maybe they’ve finally learnt their lesson from picking Victorians who just piss off back home at the first opportunity.
And why do you think Plibersek approves coal mines every week?
Seriously, she’s a half left wing lunatic and as pro climate change as the rest of them.
Yet she approves coal mines hmm wonder why?
High Street, laugh out loud, take it to the RBA.
17 years later, I’m afraid that I’m quite jaded in this regard……
===============
Kirsdarke, I think a lot of voters are actually over it, after 17 years or whatever.
It’s watching how voters vote which counts. Def not what they tell opinion pollsters.
Kamala got smashed in the U.S a fortnight ago, although I accept that the H.O.R. (which is probably a better reflection of voters’ views) is very close, and could actually flip the other way next year if by- elections don’t go Trumps way. I think he’s actually mad to force by-elections given he has a slim Lower House majority, but something we’ll deal with next year. In simple speak he may be dealing with Hakeem Jeffries within 4 months.
The German SDP/Green coalition gov’t is about to get smashed in Feb.
This is what voters think of the politics of climate change. I think it has had it’s peak.
Soharsays:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:04 pm
Step and fetch @fetchstep.bsky.social · 29m
Labor won’t announce its 2035 emission reductions targets because it has contracted the job to EY.
EY also works for Woodside, Santos and consults on CCUS and the current Carbon credit/offset scam.
Labor are owned by the BIG4 consultants.
—————————–
They are not owned but the big 4 hire policy experts so many public servants are from the big 4 and know people at the big 4.
nadia88 @ #1056 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 9:58 pm
Yeah, that’s sadly true. Any chance of that pipe dream happening where centre-left politics prevail in making a workable economy that actively reduces emissions has been suffocated by the right and the far-left, so all we have as a result is a global far-right that spits at emission reduction politics as one of their “woke” things and the far-left will always vote for perfection instead of good and as a result get nothing.
So, full speed to catastrophe it is, I guess.
Climate change wasn’t a big issue in the US election.
In his inimitable style Kimmel critiques Trump’s Cabinet Sectary picks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aec0wlMMvo8
____________________________________
Been There:
I think you’re right. Success usually breeds a degree of hubris & Centre is no exception in the wake of his man getting up.
Thanks Mavis
Mexicanbeemer @ #1060 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 10:17 pm
The US election was pretty much just a circus where nothing made sense. Apparently the biggest issue was trans prisoners, even though Harris hasn’t actually spoken about trans issues since 2019, but they just sat back and let that be the issue that angered everyone.
In fact I read a comment on another blog that perhaps the biggest issue was that men who regularly visited porn sites kept on getting popup ads featuring trans people and that was the thing that so pissed them off that they voted for the party that promised to hurt them. Of course it couldn’t be an issue that would be raised on the legacy media channels, but it was enough for them to determine their vote.
Vlad,
I don’t “smash” the Greens on this site. In fact I get along with most of them, including you usually.
The debt relief issue of $74b you are referring to is, in my opinion, a mistake on the Greens behalf.
They should’ve acknowledged they got a $16b concession out of the gov’t, and then moved onto some environmental issue, the latter of which, to be honest, drives the Green vote up.
I think the Green leadership overreached, but that’s me.
So how do you propose a Treasurer funds $74b in debt relief. There is one of 4 ways.
1. Jack up the GST (You know Labor voters, and most Greens won’t support this)
2. Jack up Income Tax (Ok, so we remove HECS but then jack up Income tax. Sounds great?)
3. Borrow Money (Interest rates are pretty high if you haven’t heard)
4. Cut funding to other services. (OK, name where the cuts fall. Health perhaps. Infrastructure)
Take your pick Vlad.
Per Climate Change – I’m not smashing or rubbishing it, I’m just pointing out that voters vote in the privacy of the ballot box, different to what they tell opinion pollsters, or different to what you want them to believe.
… and Boer runs his own race on this site. He has his opinion on where politics are flowing at the moment, & I have mine.
I don’t think Nadal should’ve been picked to play the final match of his career in the Davis Cup. He was beaten by Botic van de Zandschulp, 6-4, 6-4, thereby ousting Spain in the quarters, scumming to the Neverthelands 2-1.
Mexican beemer
“ Climate change wasn’t a big issue in the US election.”
True. Neither was the war in Ukraine. Both are still big problems. Hopefully the hurricanes will only hit red states.
On Trump’s cabinet picks, I am skeptical that the Senate Republicans will do anything other than wave them through.
People were aghast at some of the recent SCOTUS picks, notably Kavanaugh and Comey Barrett, yet in the end every GOP senator voted for them.
Socrates @ #1065 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 11:13 pm
That’s true, and there’s also the fact that the Senate is 53-47 to Republicans now, so not even the so-called moderates Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska will be enough to counter the rest of the remaining 51 full MAGA Senators.
Centre says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 9:54 pm
And why do you think Plibersek approves coal mines every week?
Seriously, she’s a half left wing lunatic and as pro climate change as the rest of them.
Yet she approves coal mines hmm wonder why?
******************************((*
Irene gets piled on a lot, but I think she is often right.
Labor has been hypocritical about caring for the environment.
They can’t claim that they’re making a difference about being green here while they keep opening up new coal and gas projects to ship off for other countries to burn somewhere else.
The world shares the same air and water.
Also, at least tax the world destroyers to provide us now with decent social security, housing and health care.
Otherwise, what is the point?
Rainman @ #1067 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 11:17 pm
Biting the inside of my cheek here in how much I don’t like to admit it, but, yes, Federal Labor really needs to do some work here in becoming more electable.
What they’re doing at the moment just isn’t enough, which is essentially being like “We just want to be re-elected, we have no other beliefs other than that, here’s our list™ that proves it to be so. Shut up. Stop questioning our plan.”
I think Labor just takes people like me for granted, and it really annoys me. I have voted Labor since I started working at a young age. I was a party member and a union rep for most of my working life. But now it feels like I only keep voting for them just to keep the Liberals out. My wife and I worked hard for many years and now we own a modest unit and we’re doing ok in our retirement. We help out our children as best we can. Albanese or Dutton probably won’t affect us much. Still, it’s only occasionally that Labor gets into government in this conservative country and I think they could have done better.
Mavissays:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 10:40 pm
I don’t think Nadal should’ve been picked to play the final match of his career in the Davis Cup. He was beaten by Botic van de Zandschulp, 6-4, 6-4, thereby ousting Spain in the quarters, scumming to the Neverthelands 2-1.
_____________________
You are a hard woman Mavis.
After everything he’s done, he was entitled to go out on his terms.
Rainman @ #1069 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 11:42 pm
Yeah, I agree with that. I would hope Federal Labor has moved on from the days of the backroom boys of Mark Arbib and Karl Bitar that turned out to be the true power behind the party, but now it seems that there’s simply different backroom boys that dictate what goes on. And I hate that.
Melbourne, Danistan – Good yiros. Good Korean fried chicken. Two Jazz clubs down – one good, one average. Your Taxi drivers are thieves.
The politicisation of the Future Fund is economic and financial vandalism.
The LNP has the smash the ALP on that. From now until the election.
Climate change doesn’t care what voters think. Climate bats last.
Kirsdarke
I’ve just come back here after being absent for a while. I appreciate connecting with people like you, although I understand we’re not likely to agree on everything.
Cheers.
@Kirksdale
In Australia federal elections are really de facto plebiscites on the incumbent government.The opposition really don’t matter much provided they are not promising to take money out of peoples pockets with new taxes or cuts to free stuff.
So Labor are going to have to mount an effective defence of this term of government and advance the case they have done a good job under difficult circumstances without falling into the trap of a “you never had it so good what are you moaning about” subtext to the campaign.
Problem is they have been very lethargic and lazy and allowed the Tories to craft a narrative that they are incompetent and are using immigration to artificially prop up a failing economy which has caused a housing crises.
That narrative has metastasized all the way out to the world of the apolitical normie. I know it has because I spend most of my life in that world.
Half of the east coast of Australia literally burnt down in 2019/2020.
There is something seriously wrong to not be concerned about climate disruption and the increasing disasters.
People need to really explore their individual and collective psychology.
Climate change matters more than many are still yet to fully admit.
Admit you are terrified. Denying it is futile. Reprioritise your choices and attitudes toward climate change mitigation.
Hi Been There,
Good to see you posting.
I am very concerned about the new LNP mob they seem to be doing the same as cando. Very worried.
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:25 pm
The Reactionaries have been on the ascent for years now. They are winning. Be assured. They absolutely detest the Greens and their ilk. They will set out to destroy you….to erase you from the landscape.
The Labor-phobic Left just do not get it. They never have. The Mindless Reactionaries want to annul you and everything that you believe in. Given a chance, they will.
What a bizarre take from the aptly named Stooge. No, stooge, the progressive left have always had a crystal clear understanding of the need to oppose conservatives. It is centrist quislings such as yourself who naively believe that running as reactionary lite is a winning strategy. How many election defeats do centrists have to incur before they learn the need to fight reactionaries and stand up for the people for a change?
To the immense dismay of the Labor-phobic, make-believe-left, self-adoring Greens, Labor keeps winning elections in spite of the efforts of the Greens to help the Mindless Reactionaries to win.
I’ve been politically committed since the age of 14. I’m now 68. I know what it is to win and to lose. I’ve been an interested observer and a participant. I know the Greens detest Labor. This is just a form of bigotry, all said and done.
But this doesn’t matter. The Greens don’t matter. They are simply one more Labor-hating voice. The Greens barely exist as a socio-political organisation. They are ideologically networked but not socially connected. They represent no-one but themselves. For all intents and purposes, they are crypto-Reactionary. They do not oppose the reactionaries. Rather, they make the cause of defeating Labor their common cause.
Elections are about real disposable wages. Other things count, but not much if wages are under pressure. When climate change starts to hurt real wages more broadly than is now the case then it will mobilise votes. When that happens, voters will be progressively dissuaded/discouraged/disenfranchised. This is already a Reactionary tactic.
But even so, the owners of the world’s resources are generally indifferent to all this. They own the system by which nearly all information is acquired, stored and disseminated. They can warp the system. They are good at it. They have just done it in America.
Socratessays:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 11:10 pm
Mexican beemer
“ Climate change wasn’t a big issue in the US election.”
[True. Neither was the war in Ukraine. Both are still big problems. Hopefully the hurricanes will only hit red states.]
Money is the key to solving both problems!
Essentially, highly educated humankind will only make decisions regarding climate change when they believe they’ll be financially “better-off”.
The Ukraine war will continue, provided Putin doesn’t tip the doner to the Ukraine countries to the point where their financial hurt is so bad they are forced to eliminate the war.
Voters with no imminent financial hardship from climate change won’t support political parties intending to impose financial burdens on them.
Similarly, politicians won’t take action to finish the Ukraine war if such action were to result in financial hardship for voters.
Deciding to cast a vote one way or the other depends on one’s net financial benefit.
Wars and climate change action are
seen to be “other people’s” problems.
The political implications be it in Europe or in the USA is “fuck it” it’s not my problem.
It’s all a bit of a worry !
sustainable snail
[People need to really explore their individual and collective psychology.]
People explore their pocket, it’s level, and whether they’re better than the next fella .
How to get people to understand that their pocket will be better for climate change action is the dilemma.
Generally others won’t look to closely!
Why would the majority of Americans vote for a fat dishonest racist unfit old man with dyed red hair, not once but twice, seemingly against any rational achievable objectives?
Enough Americans have been convinced that they will be better off financially, the Mexican invaders will stopped at the gate, the Chinese can no longer steal all their money and climate change is something that occurs in the opponents locker room.
There is nothing besides money in the pocket that will convince voters otherwise.
Australia suffers from its own version of the American nonsense.
Liberals in Australia just lie knowing quite well they’ll be believed.
The Greens present some very good policy refusing to believe that good policy is not more valued than a voters pocket.
Labor is attempting to navigate a pathway through a social, emotional, political, physical and financial misinformation minefield that hurts both the brains of voters and supposedly their pockets.
The Nationals have concocted a folksie fairytale of “we feed the nation” and mining will save the “towns and villages”, while water will runs uphill.
It’s all still a worry!
New thread.
Centre @ #1053 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 9:54 pm
I don’t know much about Plibersek’s political convictions, but it might s because she knows she would be overruled anyway if she did not. Perhaps she really thinks she can make a positive contribution in other areas.
Of course, I could be completely wrong, and she could actually be as spineless and mendacious as her colleagues.
How would cancelling all student debt be inflationary? Can you explain the scenarios and the mechanisms by which that would happen?
Are the people who’ve had their student debt eliminated going to suddenly start consuming more food and more petrol than they currently do? Would they go on a spending spree at Spotlight and buy three microwaves instead of one? Explain your reasoning.
Friends of Israel often boast the fact that “Israel is the only democratic state in the whole of the Middle East”.
Whether this be true is in the eye of the beholder.
Nonetheless it is fair to accept democratic states tolerate opposition as part of the system.
The problem for those of us – and I would include myself – is that one word of criticism of the Israel state is immediately howled down as Anti-Semitism. Some earlier posts were along these lines.
For the purpose of this post, I support the existence of the State of Israel and I deplore the murder/massacre of innocent Israeli citizens by Hamas- just as I deplore the thousands of citizens killed in Gaza.
And before I am got at….
Among other things, I have been to Auschwitz/Birkenau on more than one occasion, seen Anne Frank’s house in Amsterdam, seen the empty chairs memorial in Krakow to Jewish people killed, and seen the memorial of the guilt of Germans towards Jewish people in Berlin.
I get it.