The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review (presently available online in the paper’s subscriber-only digital edition) records no change of consequence on voting intention, with the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor steady on the primary vote at 30%, the Coalition down one to 40% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and up two to 41%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 44-43 to 43-42.
The poll also finds 55% believe the world will be less safe with Donald Trump as President, compared with 28% for safer, and that 47% consider Peter Dutton “better placed to engage and negotiate” with Trump, compared with 36% for Anthony Albanese. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1046.
What are the chances that Trumps unusual Cabinet choices turn out to be a great change from technocrats and usher in a whole range of unorthodox solutions that improve the USA?
dave @ #1002 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 6:17 pm
Player One says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 5:48 pm
Boerwar @ #987 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 5:45 pm
China, which burns more coal than ALL the rest of the world combined, is down there with Australia.
And Australia, which exports more carbon than almost anyone else in the world, is up there with China.
So yes you may be right – this may not be a useful index. After all, China does much more than us to reduce emissions. It is Australia who are the climate laggards.
The owners of all the planetary resources could not care less about things like this. Looking out, in 50-100 years, the global environmental system will be in complete disorder. The scope and depth of this are essentially both catastrophic and yet unpredictable. It therefore makes sense to fight hard to protect whatever resources you might have, no matter the effects on others. The mass of the human population are fundamentally expendable. We are superfluous. Wealth and power are highly concentrated. This will intensify.
The owners of the world’s wealth know about this. They don’t care a whole lot. The rest of use can whinge/grizzle/squabble. They are at best indifferent to that. In fact they like it. We-the-commoners have no power. This is the way the system runs. We are not permitted to challenge the privileges of ownership.
Ultimately, we will all face an existential crisis. We look like we will lose. Faced with this, we will choose escapism. We will choose fantasy. This has just happened in the US, where the widespread dispossession of ordinary people is very far advanced. The people of the US have already been defeated.
The next big question is what level the human population will decline to.
A couple of million?
A couple of hundred thousand?
Boerwar @ #995 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 6:00 pm
Our current target is easily achievable. But that does not mean it is going to be achieved. Consensus is that it will not.
Any target is achievable if you consider it important enough. This government does not.
I am surprised Trump has not appointed any fictional characters yet, Hannibal Lecter as Surgeon General?? Scrooge McDuck as Treasury Secretary, Monty Burns to the AEC, after all he has pretty much got a Hugo Drax style Bond villan in his boy and Co-President Elroy
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1006 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 6:51 pm
Wait … you mean Elon Musk is real? Nooooooo! 🙁
@P1
i am waiting for the eventual scooby doo moment when they pull his face mask off and reveal it was old man withers from the haunted amusement park all along
I’m sure there’ll be at least one of them that’ll be even more lampoonable than this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PC0Hw91UgU
Dave at 6.17pm, zero.
‘Player One says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 6:39 pm
Boerwar @ #995 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 6:00 pm
Whatever it is, it will be achievable. It will be on the road to zero net fifty.
And it will be achieved.
Which is, I suspect, what really gets up the noses of the Extreme Greens et al.
Our current target is easily achievable. But that does not mean it is going to be achieved. Consensus is that it will not.
Any target is achievable if you consider it important enough. This government does not.’
=============================
We are on the road to achieving 43/30. You just can’t stand it.
What’s your best guess Boerwar?
‘Bystander says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 7:19 pm
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 6:25 pm
The next big question is what level the human population will decline to.
A couple of million?
A couple of hundred thousand?
What’s your best guess Boerwar?’
===============
Not a clue!
Boerwar @ #1011 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 7:10 pm
You might want to tell the Climate Change Authority …
https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/2023-annual-progress-report
Note that although this report is dated 2023, it remains the latest report, and was updated in October 2024.
You might wonder why the 2024 report has not been released yet. I think we can all guess 🙁
For the same reasons the 2023 report didn’t come out until April, would be mine.
Okay, not quite — it’s dated October 27 last year. But the legislation requires it be done before the minister’s Climate Change Statement in parliament, which the legislation requires to happen “within six months after the end of each financial year”.
William Bowe @ #1016 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 7:55 pm
So, a Christmas surprise. I look forward to reading it. 🙂
Step and fetch @fetchstep.bsky.social · 29m
Labor won’t announce its 2035 emission reductions targets because it has contracted the job to EY.
EY also works for Woodside, Santos and consults on CCUS and the current Carbon credit/offset scam.
Labor are owned by the BIG4 consultants.
The problem though Player One, is that “climate change” is no longer the salient issue it used to be.
Sorry, but I think it’s dropping in voters priorities.
Reason why: Could be C.O.L., or could be that it was over egged & the voters are tired (possibly exhausted).
There was discussion earlier today about whether Bowen would release some climate report in Feb or delay it until after the election. I’ll be frank & say that I don’t think most voters give a toss either way.
I suspect more likely is that the prophecies of doom and gloom (justified in my opinion) haven’t hit people in ways that materialise meaningfully for them in their lives.
nadia88 @ #1019 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 8:05 pm
I agree that this is not the “top of mind” issue it should be, or used to be with many voters – and will be again as soon as the reality hits them (which it has a really, really nasty habit of doing!).
And some have succumbed to the Boerwar “it’s too late/difficult to do anything about it anyway” and “they are worse than us, so why should we have to deal with it” phases of denial.
However, it is still a significant issue for those who can entertain opinions on more than one issue at a time. And the Teals will see that it remains so.
Confessions @ #1020 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 8:07 pm
I suppose that could change if this summer turns out to be a bad one, like the 2019-20 season. And according to the Bureau of Meteorology, this one’s likely to be a tough one.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary
High temperatures and high rainfall would imply there’s going to be some bad thunderstorms with flash flooding, severe lightning strikes and hailstorms. Possibly even tornadoes.
What a bizarre take from the aptly named Stooge. No, stooge, the progressive left have always had a crystal clear understanding of the need to oppose conservatives. It is centrist quislings such as yourself who naively believe that running as reactionary lite is a winning strategy. How many election defeats do centrists have to incur before they learn the need to fight reactionaries and stand up for the people for a change?
Kirsdarke:
Maybe. But I doubt it. Every year for the last 3 years has been the hottest world temp on record, yet people seem to just expect it and now don’t even bat an eyelash.
My own theory is that the Greens have abdicated themselves from the environment space so we no longer have a credible third party keeping the government of the day honest on the environment and climate change. Realistically now it’s up to Labor because whatever the Coalition is offering is sub-optimal at best.
I’ll stick with COL with migration numbers as the main filter for the coming election. I can’t see climate changing many votes at all.
That said, I had not expected Dutton to lead with his chin via nuclear and to lead with his chin on open-slather student numbers. Too clever by half. Both muddy his main messages.
Add to that a long record of voting AGAINST specific COL items and it starts to look as if he is a bit dopey.
Nor is Dutton handling abortion at all well. The first two are own goals. The second is an apparent inability to assert discipline – quite a large chink in his strong man persona.
Nor had I expected the Greens to go so obviously extreme. I expect the national greens vote to change in two respects. It will be younger on average as older Greens voters bail. It will be more concentrated in a limited number of inner city seats. I doubt whether it will be far from 12-13 per cent.
I expect the Teals to just about hold their ground.
Albanese probably has a sufficient platform to run on a safe pair of hands in difficult times. He has some significant COL runs on the board:
China
real wages trend reversed
inflation halved
gender pay gap closed
various health initiatives including reversing the bulk billing trend.
over a million new jobs
IMO most people will not focus on two Budget surpluses but they add to the general air of competence compared with the slapdash governments of which Dutton was a core component.
Outcome: an Albanese minority government.
I doubt whether Dutton would last another term as LOTO.
Possible black swan events: the impact of Trump on our China trade and on global inflation.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:25 pm
The Reactionaries have been on the ascent for years now. They are winning. Be assured. They absolutely detest the Greens and their ilk. They will set out to destroy you….to erase you from the landscape.
The Labor-phobic Left just do not get it. They never have. The Mindless Reactionaries want to annul you and everything that you believe in. Given a chance, they will.
What a bizarre take from the aptly named Stooge. No, stooge, the progressive left have always had a crystal clear understanding of the need to oppose conservatives. It is centrist quislings such as yourself who naively believe that running as reactionary lite is a winning strategy. How many election defeats do centrists have to incur before they learn the need to fight reactionaries and stand up for the people for a change?’
===============
Have a look at the Greens polling in Bludger Track.
There must be something seriously wRONg when 88% of Australians shy away from your nostrums.
Do you seriously think that sane Australians want the same sort of defence force as Hamas?
I mean that. Do you seriously think that that is the case?
Macca RB says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 1:44 pm
Rainman @ 8.52am
It could have been Camelot for Jack and Jacqueline
or
It could have been nuclear Armeggedon for the rest of us.
Hopefully, 60 years on the nonsense of the great President Kennedy can be put to rest.
The real visionary and social democrat was his successor.
It was a pity that he Johnson had also to deal with the American invasion of Vietnam, among other policies.
*****************************
John Lee Hooker once sang a blues song saying that when the Democrats got in he would be able to afford new shoes. So sure, Johnson was a social democrat.
Johnson also used the Bay of Tonkin lie to begin operation Rolling Thunder, where the U.S. dropped more bombs than world war 2 on a small third world country – 864,000 tons of bombs – which mass murdered millions of Vietnamese and bombed their essential infrastructure back into the Stone Age.
Thanks for the shoes.
Biden unconditionally supplying 2000 pounds bombs to Netanyahu is just continuing the great Democrat tradition.
Forgive me if I’m not impressed.
Confessions @ #1024 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 8:33 pm
True, but in the theory I raised the other day that the increasing effects on Climate Change amount to adding more and more negative outcome wedges on the Wheel of Fortune.
Australia spun a very bad one on the 2019 Summer, but ended up relatively well off in the ’20, ’21, ’22 and ’23 Summers in comparison to that at least. As the crisis continues, there may be weather phenomena that happens that we’ve never seen before.
Kirsdarke @ #1028 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 8:52 pm
You mean like this? …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-20/intense-rainfall-charleville-flooding/104626796
No chance!
This is interesting & concerning!
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/18/europe/nato-sweden-finland-wartime-guidance-intl
Or do you mean like this? …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-20/more-thunderstorms-for-inland-pilbara-tom-price/104626602
Again, no chance!
Maybe this will work!
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/18/europe/nato-sweden-finland-wartime-guidance-intl?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17320962058526&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2024%2F11%2F18%2Feurope%2Fnato-sweden-finland-wartime-guidance-intl%2Findex.html
‘Player One says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:15 pm
nadia88 @ #1019 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 8:05 pm
The problem though Player One, is that “climate change” is no longer the salient issue it used to be.
I agree that this is not the “top of mind” issue it should be, or used to be with many voters – and will be again as soon as the reality hits them (which it has a really, really nasty habit of doing!).
And some have succumbed to the Boerwar “it’s too late/difficult to do anything about it anyway” and “they are worse than us, so why should we have to deal with it” phases of denial.
However, it is still a significant issue for those who can entertain opinions on more than one issue at a time. And the Teals will see that it remains so.’
====================
Some people may have succumbed to the P1 fever dreams. I don’t know.
But, for the nonce:
I support zero net fifty.
I support 43/30.
I am profoundly grateful that we have finally found a national government which will deliver both.
I believe that Dutton’s alternative is deeply cynical and destructive.
I believe that the Greens’ zero net 35 is laughable and just as destructive.
I support zero net fifty even though I believe that most of the world’s major CO2 polluters will get nowhere near zero net fifty.
I see no current technical solution for livestock. Given the way cellulose is digested there may be no technical solution.
I see no current technical solution for air travel emissions but believe such a solution will be available by 2050. In the interim I believe it is a matter of personal ethics to at least minimize personal air travel.
I believe dozens of countries will have to go at least part-nuclear because they have no full renewables option.
While there are various climate thresholds that may be triggered over the next quarter of a century there is also one significant possibility on the economic front. Most of the world is heavily indebted. China has a contorted economy. Most economies are geared to population growth, not to population decline. Trump’s tariffs may well push the economic system beyond breaking point. In that case we may well get a sharp and sustained fall in CO2 emissions.
@Player One
These are relatively low populated areas that most people won’t notice. What people do notice is events like the 2011 Brisbane Floods where a modern western city with skyscrapers becomes flooded, or the 2019 bushfires where almost the entire Australian eastern coast gets covered in smoke.
There is weather phenomena which occurs… and yes people (voters) do accept it, even if extreme.
Practical example:
North Carolina got smashed by Hurricane Helene in the lead up to the U.S. election.
What happenned on election day? Trump increased his margin from 1% to well over 3%.
This is the “voter view” of the politics of climate change. We can have all the scientists and global warming experts telling (perhaps lecturing) people otherwise, but in the privacy of the ballot box voters vote or think a different way. They may tell opinion pollsters one thing, but they are def voting a different way.
I agree with Boer. Climate change will not be an issue this election and whether Chris Bowen releases a climate report or not, almost 98% of Australians won’t care nor read it anyway. It will be COL and immigration and possibly infrastructure, with a little bit of abortion thrown in on the sidelines (although this is a state issue).
dave:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 6:17 pm
[‘What are the chances that Trumps unusual Cabinet choices turn out to be a great change from technocrats and usher in a whole range of unorthodox solutions that improve the USA?]
Most of his picks have equal or bigger egos than Trump & have had little or no experience of working collegially, let alone having any knowledge of their portfolios or the way Capitol Hill works. Look no further than the sackings & resignations of his first cabinet. But Trump won’t mind how he screws his country of birth. Indeed, I think he detests it. I further think he’ll die in office & the whole charade will crumble down.
‘Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:52 pm
…
As the crisis continues, there may be weather phenomena that happens that we’ve never seen before.’
==================================
My view is that Super Fires are an example of one such.
On a related matter but looking at it from a different angle, Australian biodiversity has a peculiar advantage with respect to extremes. A lot of it is already highly resilient to boom and bust.
Some of it is not. Rainforests getting burned is a no no, for example. Alpine species with no place to go up anymore. Heat intolerant coral species. Etc. Etc. Etc.
nadia88 says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 9:10 pm
… with a little bit of abortion thrown in on the sidelines (although this is a state issue).’
=================
…which would be why Canavan has a Bill up in the Senate.
nadia88 @ #1035 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 9:10 pm
The relationships betweeen COL, immigration, infrastructure (specifically increased costs) and climate change seem to have escaped both you and Boerwar. You cannot hope to deal with any of the former without taking into account the latter.
I can only hope not all voters are so oblivious.
At the risk of being called a climate change denier, which I’m not, I think the argument that it doesn’t make any difference what we do if the largest countries don’t pull their weight, is absolutely right. It’s simple mathematics.
Player One says:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 9:18 pm
nadia88 @ #1035 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 9:10 pm
Climate change will not be an issue this election and whether Chris Bowen releases a climate report or not, almost 98% of Australians won’t care nor read it anyway. It will be COL and immigration and possibly infrastructure, with a little bit of abortion thrown in on the sidelines (although this is a state issue).
The relationships betweeen COL, immigration, infrastructure (specifically increased costs) and climate change seem to have escaped both you and Boerwar. You cannot hope to deal with any of the former without taking into account the latter.
I can only hope not all voters are so oblivious.’
================
None of those had escaped me, FWIW. I have long held the view that the best thing Australia could do from a CO2 emissions POV is to have an immigration level of zero combined with a rewards program to get Australians to move overseas. This relates to a huge carbon footprint per capita. Blocking tourists is an obvious corollary although those with skin in that game would squeal. I have previously posted on the nexus between insurance and climate change.
You may be right. The vast bulk of Australians may suddenly view COL through a climate filter during the next election. My bet is that they won’t. They will view it through the filter of their personal circumstances and through the larger filter of migration.
The latter may be enough to give Dutton the reins but currently I doubt that.
Bystander @ #1040 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 9:23 pm
You mean countries like Australia? Currently number two exporter of carbon, with a bullet?
Thanks to various Labor initiatives a record number of people are studying to be GPs.
The most ever.
Bystander @ #1041 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 9:23 pm
Yes, the mathematics are true, but what I’ve been hoping for ever since I was first able to vote at the 2007 election that just maybe there could be a popular working system that could convince the rest of the world that it’s possible to reduce emissions without damaging the economy. I held high hopes for the Rudd-Gillard Government for this.
17 years later, I’m afraid that I’m quite jaded in this regard, given that the process involves making billionaire pigs squeal to hell and use all their power to destroy any effort in this field.
I understand that Labor partisans don’t want climate change to be an issue at the next election. And I also understand why they do not.
But that does not mean it will not be. The Teals, the Greens, and voters with an IQ of 3 or more digits should all help see to that.
P1
I was referring to the level of our emissions not the level of our carbon exports. but you make a good point.
Hawthorn has reached a settlement with former indigenous players who alleged all kinds of terrible treatment, including encouraging an abortion and attempts to break up relationships the club didn’t approve of.
Hawthorn acknowledges ‘the truth’ of the players experience but admits to no wrongdoing, and no current or former employee has been sanctioned by the AFL.
Nicely played Hawthorn and the AFL. We all know that racism only exists at Collingwood.
Don’t be surprised, climate change just might be an issue in the election.
People know that Australia should’ve, could’ve had the cheapest energy prices in the world. We have a high cost of living, high inflation, high interest rates, and higher rents – all mainly due to high energy prices filtering through the economy. And why? Coz of action on climate change.
Maybe if we had the warm winter we were promised that couldvé helped?
The lefties need a long hot summer, a long hot one 😀
BW
Source please on GPs – the % of medical graduates entering GP training is down to the low teens (historically 50%).
I find it difficult to believe
Thanks to various Labor initiatives a record number of people are studying to be GPs.
The most ever.
Labor partisans most definately don’t want climate change to be an issue player 1. Not content with smashing the Greens over the student debt wipeoff policy, nadia and boerwar join forces to now smash climate change. Though i suppose with Plibersek approving coal mines every week, i’m not surprised.