Newspoll did not grace us with its usual three-weekly presence on Sunday evening, but the weekly Roy Morgan can always be relied upon – as presumably can the fortnightly Essential Research, which should be reported tomorrow and previewed by the time most of you read this in The Guardian. Roy Morgan finds the Coalition opening up a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after trailing 50.5-49.5 last time. However, this is down to changes in the respondent-allocated preference flow rather than the primary vote, on which both Labor and the Coalition are up half a point, to 30.5% and 38% respectively, with the Greens steady on 14% and One Nation up half a point to 6%. The alternative two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor leading 51-49, in from 51.5-48.5 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1651.
The Guardian has also launched a federal poll aggregate, devised by the publication’s data journalists Josh Nicholas and Nick Evershed together with Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney, based on a model developed by the latter together with political science doyen Simon Jackman. Strikingly, it credits the Coalition witha two-party lead of 51.4-48.6, based on polling data up to and including last week’s Roy Morgan result. That the Labor primary vote of 27.5% is half a point lower than any poll published during the past term presumably reflects the fact that Labor significantly underperformed the polls at both the 2019 and 2022 elections. However, recent state elections have offered no further evidence for bias on such a scale.
On this point, a comparison of performance at the Queensland election by Resolve Strategic, presumably intended to blow the pollster’s own trumpet, demonstrates that the industry did rather well across the board. The national figures from The Guardian aggregate are also worse for Labor than the accompanying state breakdowns, although the latter only track as far as September.
Further:
• Proposed new federal boundaries for the Northern Territory were published in October 18. These predictably dealt with the need for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon to gain voters, and Lingiari to lose them, by transferring the outer suburbs of Palmerston, inclusive of Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli, to Solomon. Antony Green calculates that this increases Labor’s margin in Lingiari from 0.9% to 1.7% and reduces it in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4%.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brian Mitchell, who maintains Labor’s increasingly tenuous grip on the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons, is “being strongly urged by federal figures” to make way for former state party leader Rebecca White, who has been a member for the corresponding state electorate since 2010. It is further reported that Mitchell would be willingly to go quietly, and that White is “understood to be willing to switch”, but “does not want a preselection stoush”.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian also reports Anthony Albanese “blindsided” the Tasmanian branch of the ALP by announcing that Richard Dowling, adviser to state Labor leader Dean Winter and former director of public policy with Meta, would succeed Catryna Bilyk at the top end of the party’s Senate ticket at the next election. The report quotes Bilyk saying she had not said she was retiring as of yet, and that state MP Shane Broad and former Forestry Australia president Bob Gordon had been floated as potential successors if she did. However, Dowling was “assured the position as the choice of the Right faction’s Australian Workers Union”, a fact which was “not widely known within the party” until Albanese made it so.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports a Liberal preselection vote for the Hunter region seat of Paterson, held for Labor by Meryl Swanson on what I calculate to be a post-redistribution margin of 2.5%, was won by Laurence Antcliff, operations manager at the Housing Industry Association. Antcliff reportedly won a preselection vote by 24 to 16 ahead of local doctor Owen Boyd.
• The above report further notes that Lucy Wicks, who lost the Central Coast seat of Robertson to Labor in 2022, is considered the front-runner in a preselection ballot for the seat to be held on November 16. She is opposed by Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has run for the party five times in various seats, most recently in Dobell in 2022, and Bernadette Enright, a banking executive.
• David Gillespie, who has held the New South Wales Mid North Coast seat of Lyne for the Nationals since 2013, announced a fortnight ago that he will not recontest the next election.
Miles is a lame duck leader. Terrible decision. The period until the inevitable challenge comes along will be a complete waste of time for Labor (not that there’s a lot that a newly-minted Opposition can do in the first year or two).
And any poster who doesn’t agree with me needs to reflect on what the reaction would have been on here if the NSW Libs had stuck with Dominic Perrottet as their leader after their defeat last year. (The answer is that there would have been a great deal of chortling and scoffing.)
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 12:37 pm
Mb
There’s been nothing to convince me that the current Teal community independents are in electoral peril.
On the contrary, negative polling for Dutton and the extreme Libs only suggests there’s opportunity for more Teal community independents to sit in parliament.
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Baillieu got 46% against two candidates without his name recognition. If Ryan can get that against Hamer in that area she stands a good chance of getting reelected.
Steven Miles has just been returned by Queensland Labor MPs as the party’s leader
Miles, who lost last month’s state election, was elected unopposed to the leadership, while Cameron Dick was also unopposed in his return as deputy leader.
No Qld Labor MLA has ever been in opposition before.
They might look like world beaters while they’re ministers and have had a dream run, let’s see how they go now they’re on the mat.
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If Crisafulli is still traveling okay in 2 years time, I think a few of them will retire.
Referring to someone as a “goose” and quoting an article in the Trump media (aka The Australian, not to be confused with the Australian Club, which is a fine establishment even with full sized pool tables!)
This is where the Liberal Party has degenerated to and why more Seats will be lost to the Holmes a’Court endorsed candidates
And the son of the former Liberal Party Premier of Victoria is well associated with Ryan having run her election campaign So the name recognition is courtesy of the Teals exclusively Ditto Torney who has also been elected to Council defeating a Liberal. The results have wiped the Liberal Party from Council
You can lock in Ryan, the other Teals and those who will join them from previously Liberal Party seats being returned/elected
Nuclear Pete anyone?
Socratessays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 12:57 pm
…
Miles will also be able to hold Crisafulli to his promises, including the one Crisafulli has already broken about reappointing former Newman government ministers. It seems to be the only form of recycling the LNP likes.
Rubbish.
He made no such committment.
Crisafulli is a former Newman government minister.
Albanese is a rolled gold goose.
Deepers
And the son of the former Liberal Party Premier of Victoria is well associated with Ryan having run her election campaign So the name recognition is courtesy of the Teals exclusively Ditto Torney who has also been elected to Council defeating a Liberal. The results have wiped the Liberal Party from Council.
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Baillieu’s name recognition predates his support for Ryan because his father Ted Baillieu was the local MP and premier and the Baillieu’s are part of Melbourne’s establishment. At the last federal election the 4 local booths were split 2 Ryan 2 Frydenberg.
The Culture Wars continue – slagging off the AFL and the Melbourne Cup/ horse racing.
But it’s the Right that instigates the Culture Wars. Apparently.
Is there any other Nation where the Left so rabidly hates the culture of its own country so hard as the Left in Australia?
Coming from a Greens supporter – that’s the definition of chutzpah.
FUBAR
Everything is left of your politics.
Crisafulli promised to keep Shadow Cabinet as it was when in office. He dumped the promise to promote former Newman Ministers back in, including former Treasurer Tim Nichols into Health.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/01/david-crisafulli-lnp-cabinet-frontbench-election-promise
I look forward to the racial analysis and criticism of the racial make up of US NFL and NBA teams.
OMG – Premier makes minor changes to Cabinet line up – this is the thing people voted about!!!! Apparently.
You do realise how infantile you look?
Who knew local council election results are now accurate forecasts of Federal election voting?
There were quite a few Newman government ministers in the shadow cabinet.
Well, he’s put them on notice.
If someone starts spruiking abortion reform 2 months out from the elkection and loses their endorsement, they’ve got no one else to blame.
Deep analysis there, Champ.
Who knew that political parties demand discipline from their elected meme era and candidates?
What next? Same branding of election materials and a centralised campaign strategy?
That’s the correect tactic Badthinker, we can’t have conservatives exposing their intentions before an election. Wait till they form government and then the minority can start telling the rest of us how to live our lives.
Ryan won 3 of the 4 booths but 1 of them is usually a safe liberal booth.
The party of free speech bans free speech on abortion. That’s extreme.
Langbroek, Bates, Nicholls, Bleijie, Powell, Crisafulli, Mander were all Ministers, Frecklington, Molhoek, Stevens and Minnikin were assistant Minsters.
If he’d promised not to appoint Newman ministers it would’ve been an issue in those members electorates and more or less saying he was going to appoint a ministry without experience.
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Labor’s problem appears to be that Crisafulli said all Shadow Ministers
would keep their portfolio if elected,
then he switched Ros Bates out of Health and replaced her with former Treasurer Tim Nicholls after the election.
Bates ran into a bit of nepotismic turbulence during her last ministerial spell under Newman, more recently there was uproar over her
‘cross your legs’ interjection in Parliament.
Labor would’ve been looking forward to Bates as Heath Minister, sadly that isn’t happening.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ros_Bates
Resigned as Miinister after less than 12 months, due to accident, problem prone.
It’s clear that Crisafulli broke an election promise on day one.
That’s a scary sign for Qlders.
Socratessays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 1:47 pm
Crisafulli promised to keep Shadow Cabinet as it was when in office. He dumped the promise to promote former Newman Ministers back in, including former Treasurer Tim Nichols into Health.
Tim Nicholls was shadow A/G, so not a promotion, no doubt Labor fancied their chances bullying woman Ros Bates in Parliament.
Man Tim Nicholls, not so much.
More to the point, election results reflect the demise of the Liberal Party (and I would put terminal) identified by the Religious Right v IPA Court case embroiling the current Opposition Leader which is at the crux of where the Liberal Party is (noting Dutton attempting to shut down the abortion demographic, so the Religious Right!!) then to the Cormack Foundation where a Silk who represented a party in that very, very expensive Court action now holds the status he does and even to the Establishment Melbourne Football Club and the matters before the Courts where a former President has bought that matter for the reasons he has So wherever you look across the Liberal Party and their Establishment there are right royal (sorry about that) fights and expensive fights
Money, hey?
And across the Establishment Clubs of Melbourne you witness these divisions – so Athenaeum, Melbourne and Australian Clubs
And I am informed that this replicates the status of the Liberal Party nationally – they are at war with each other
It’s clear that Crisafulli broke an election promise on day one.
Dunno if he promised not to sack Mike Kaiser, Labor are quiet on that one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Kaiser
says Kaiser was stood down on 27th October.
I think Jacinta Price has, perhaps inadvertently, ensured that abortion rights will be front and centre in the Federal election campaign.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 2:00 pm
Your grasp of the concept of free speech is as poor as your grasp of just about every other important subject.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 1:47 pm
Stage 3 Tax cuts
Won’t touch Super.
versus
Swapped a couple of new Ministries around.
I know which broken promises I am more focussed on.
US retains first place as leading cargo cult banana republic.
NYT
“Judge Refuses to Stop Musk’s $1 Million Giveaway
Elon Musk’s super PAC has been giving away $1 million daily to registered voters who signed a petition supporting the Constitution.”.. read that as vote for Trump.
Money can buy everything in the US including an election.
I think Jacinta Price has, perhaps inadvertently, ensured that abortion rights will be front and centre in the Federal election campaign.
It was a mistake to disendorse the previous CLP Senator in favor of Price, unsure if it was Scotty’s idea.
One thing for sure, Jacinta Price is no liberal.
Dutton’s partyroom threats on abortion rights discussion was typically dumb.
It’s just a clear declaration that abortion rights is his electoral kryptonite in their strongest state, Qld.
FUBAR @ #60 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 1:41 pm
I have a vivid image of you at the races today (Ascot rather than Flemington) Pissed to the level of incontinence, wondering where you left your glasses but loudly pretending, to no one in particular that you have won a large amount, no matter which horse has won.
Sure, the first one to pop their head up loses their endorsement.
Howard did it with Pauline Hanson in 1996 when Labor was bigging up the racism issue.
Dutts has taken the wreckers on, i’d say the chances of a Coalition Government just improved a little.
Homeowners desperate for some relief were left disappointed as the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates for the eighth time in a row.
https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2024/mr-24-24.html
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 2:33 pm
Unfortunately I am a wage slave and due to a recent convalescence I do not have the leave credits to throw around on a day at the races. I do enjoy a day at the gallops, but can’t say I have ever got trolleyed there.
My sweeps are cactus. Donation to the cause.
Cheers
Setting up for a nice couple of pre-election cuts which should please the ALP no end.
Badthinker says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 2:03 pm
….
Labor’s problem appears to be that Crisafulli said all Shadow Ministers
would keep their portfolio if elected,
….
==================
Chrisafulli’s problem is that he was lying during the election and that the very first decision he made in government was to break a promise repeated many, many, many times.
His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition is being torn to shreds during QT.
At this point the RBA continuing to put that part in their statements hinting they’re still more likely to raise rates than cut them is pure stubbornness and retaliation against all the people telling them they’re wrong.
Price, Joyce, the South Australian Liberals and the Queensland Liberal Nats have combined to ensure that abortion will remain an issue in May 2025.
Abbott also immediately spoiled his pitch by breaking election promises so quickly it was apparent he’d never intended to keep them.
Doesn’t sound like a great start for Crisafulli.
“ Deep analysis there, Champ.”
FUBAR, you seem fond of calling people ‘Champ’.
Have you ever been in prison? Or was it an army thing? Did you get called ‘Champ’ a lot?
RBA looks like it subtlety shifted goal posts – trimmed mean (“underlying”) seems to be the preferred benchmark now.
“Underlying inflation remains too high” is headline language new to the Guv’s statement not seen in previous versions:
November: “Underlying inflation remains too high”
https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2024/mr-24-24.html
September: “Inflation remains above target and is proving persistent”
https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2024/mr-24-18.html
Extreme Greens leader Bandt led with his chin in QT yesterday.
He got up and demanded that the Government legislated the student savings straight away. Right now!
He was promptly reminded by Albanese of all the numerous bits of legislation, regulation and program spending that the Extreme Greens were blocking.
Right now!
Bizzcansays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 3:12 pm
RBA looks like it subtlety shifted goal posts – trimmed mean (“underlying”) seems to be the preferred benchmark now.
——————–
That’s pretty much always central bank’s preferred inflation measure.
“ Price, Joyce, the South Australian Liberals and the Queensland Liberal Nats have combined to ensure that abortion will remain an issue in May 2025.”
Boerwar, despite the carry on, the late term abortion reform bill never had any chance in South Australia. It lost by a vote in a very small Legislative Council (22 members) with a disproportionate number of left over Liberals and some independents, without needing to go to the speaker’s deciding vote. If it had survived that it would have been sent down to the much larger House of Assembly (47 members), in which Labour hold a massive majority of 27 seats to the Liberals 16, where it would have been murdered. Malinauskas was wise to allow a conscience vote but the whole thing was nothing more than a dead in the water Liberal stunt. Abortion reform in SA is a dead issue.
‘ The South Australian Parliament has two Houses, the House of Assembly and the Legislative Council. When a member of Parliament introduces a Bill to Parliament they will introduce it to the House of which they are a member. If a Bill successfully completes these stages in one House, it will then be received and considered by the second House.’
https://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/understanding-legislation/types-of-legislation
Why would anyone trust Dutton on anything?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/05/peter-dutton-liberal-coalition-abortion-policy-ntwnfb