Newspoll did not grace us with its usual three-weekly presence on Sunday evening, but the weekly Roy Morgan can always be relied upon – as presumably can the fortnightly Essential Research, which should be reported tomorrow and previewed by the time most of you read this in The Guardian. Roy Morgan finds the Coalition opening up a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after trailing 50.5-49.5 last time. However, this is down to changes in the respondent-allocated preference flow rather than the primary vote, on which both Labor and the Coalition are up half a point, to 30.5% and 38% respectively, with the Greens steady on 14% and One Nation up half a point to 6%. The alternative two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor leading 51-49, in from 51.5-48.5 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1651.
The Guardian has also launched a federal poll aggregate, devised by the publication’s data journalists Josh Nicholas and Nick Evershed together with Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney, based on a model developed by the latter together with political science doyen Simon Jackman. Strikingly, it credits the Coalition witha two-party lead of 51.4-48.6, based on polling data up to and including last week’s Roy Morgan result. That the Labor primary vote of 27.5% is half a point lower than any poll published during the past term presumably reflects the fact that Labor significantly underperformed the polls at both the 2019 and 2022 elections. However, recent state elections have offered no further evidence for bias on such a scale.
On this point, a comparison of performance at the Queensland election by Resolve Strategic, presumably intended to blow the pollster’s own trumpet, demonstrates that the industry did rather well across the board. The national figures from The Guardian aggregate are also worse for Labor than the accompanying state breakdowns, although the latter only track as far as September.
Further:
• Proposed new federal boundaries for the Northern Territory were published in October 18. These predictably dealt with the need for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon to gain voters, and Lingiari to lose them, by transferring the outer suburbs of Palmerston, inclusive of Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli, to Solomon. Antony Green calculates that this increases Labor’s margin in Lingiari from 0.9% to 1.7% and reduces it in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4%.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brian Mitchell, who maintains Labor’s increasingly tenuous grip on the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons, is “being strongly urged by federal figures” to make way for former state party leader Rebecca White, who has been a member for the corresponding state electorate since 2010. It is further reported that Mitchell would be willingly to go quietly, and that White is “understood to be willing to switch”, but “does not want a preselection stoush”.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian also reports Anthony Albanese “blindsided” the Tasmanian branch of the ALP by announcing that Richard Dowling, adviser to state Labor leader Dean Winter and former director of public policy with Meta, would succeed Catryna Bilyk at the top end of the party’s Senate ticket at the next election. The report quotes Bilyk saying she had not said she was retiring as of yet, and that state MP Shane Broad and former Forestry Australia president Bob Gordon had been floated as potential successors if she did. However, Dowling was “assured the position as the choice of the Right faction’s Australian Workers Union”, a fact which was “not widely known within the party” until Albanese made it so.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports a Liberal preselection vote for the Hunter region seat of Paterson, held for Labor by Meryl Swanson on what I calculate to be a post-redistribution margin of 2.5%, was won by Laurence Antcliff, operations manager at the Housing Industry Association. Antcliff reportedly won a preselection vote by 24 to 16 ahead of local doctor Owen Boyd.
• The above report further notes that Lucy Wicks, who lost the Central Coast seat of Robertson to Labor in 2022, is considered the front-runner in a preselection ballot for the seat to be held on November 16. She is opposed by Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has run for the party five times in various seats, most recently in Dobell in 2022, and Bernadette Enright, a banking executive.
• David Gillespie, who has held the New South Wales Mid North Coast seat of Lyne for the Nationals since 2013, announced a fortnight ago that he will not recontest the next election.
Not sure why Wicks is running again, The party needs fresh blood, not old blood like her, Katie Allan, Nicole Flint, Tim Wilson, etc.
They are just desperate and haven’t learnt from their mistakes at this point.
Albo is doing a brilliant job on giving them a good chance of winning though, Thanks PM for letting us all down!
#weatheronPB
A thinning blue sky,
peers out past the recent storm,
washed clean and refreshed.
SNIP
First report from Essential.
No voting intention numbers … but a heretical finding that a slight majority of Australians aren’t interested in ‘the race that stops a nation’.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/05/guardian-essential-poll-most-australians-think-politicians-should-not-accept-free-concert-tickets-and-flight-upgrades-ntwnfb
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/11/05/miscellany-morgan-guardian-poll-tracker-preselection-latest-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-4396460
https://apple.news/AFl2Y6GEoTumn4h78JTdXfA: “A majority disapproved of politicians attending major concerts (63% to 23%), receiving complimentary flight upgrades (61% to 26%), attending major sporting events such as the Melbourne Cup and grand finals (59% to 27%) and accessing VIP airline lounges (58% to 28%).
About one in seven respondents (14%) were “unsure” whether politicians should accept these.
Labor voters were slightly more likely to back gifts for politicians, with about a third (32%) supporting taking flight upgrades compared with 27% of Coalition supporters.
Supporters of independents and minor parties were particularly opposed, with just 18% agreeing politicians should take flight upgrades.”
Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the US and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.
The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.
Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices – electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance – were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot, according to security officials and people familiar with the probe.
Security officials say the electric massagers, sent to the UK from Lithuania, appear to have been a test run to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America.
Poland’s National Prosecutor’s Office said authorities there have arrested four people in connection with the fires and charged them with participating in sabotage or terrorist operations on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency. Poland is working with other countries to find at least two more suspects.
“The group’s goal was also to test the transfer channel for such parcels, which were ultimately to be sent to the United States of America and Canada,” the prosecutor’s office said, without saying who was orchestrating the group’s efforts.
But the head of Poland’s foreign-intelligence agency, Pawel Szota, said Russian spies were to blame and such an attack, if carried out, would have represented a major escalation in Moscow’s campaign against the West. “I’m not sure the political leaders of Russia are aware of the consequences if one of these packages exploded, causing a mass casualty event,” Szota said.
Nasty sexist attack from Macca rb. What an ugly individual.
To those whose opinion is that the Coalition will be returned to government (and by referencing published polling), the reality check for them is the Council election results in the Federal Seat of Monique Ryan, the Liberal Party wiped out by “teal” aligned candidates starting with the son of a former Liberal Party Premier of Victoria who was instrumental in Ryan’s campaign and a State election “teal” representative (who very narrowly lost to an IPA candidate)
The path for the LNP to increase their 50 odd seats in the 151 seat parliament just does not exist in the real world (noting also the attitudes of the remaining LNP (so Queensland) MP’s to the Independents which is plain insulting and rude )
Elsewhere in these Council elections, the Greens are losing support and representation (replicating the metropolitan regions in Queensland and to the benefit of the ALP)
It may be that Albanese is being attacked for buying a home and receiving upgrades when flying over the past decade (and, when flying domestically and overseas on business, the first class bookings made by my employer, I enjoyed access to the lounge so there you go) but these attacks by vested interests in the media are not a reason to change the government and they will not. They are merely an attack line by a party with no relevance apart from promoting nuclear energy as a smoke screen for the mining industry and fossil fuels. So back to Council elections in Kooyong and a Liberal Party wipe out – and elsewhere a Greens wipe out
This is the public mood – and it will heighten if Hockey’s mate is elected in the USA, God forbid
Over the rough colonial tracks, comes Archer the leggy Bay. Walking all the way to Melbourne.
For just one day, one day when sinew’s strain and nostrils show bright red. For a weak horse never won our Cup.
No, not on this fabulous Tuesday.
From over the sea came a legend called Carbine. Such Tasman trips are now familiar story, but our Cup was barely 3 decades old when Carbine blessed it with his glory.
Lumping 10 stone up that Flemington straight, and the crowd roars, as there’s another hero to fete.
On this fabulous Tuesday.
From deep in the depression gloom came the great red horse of all boon. Phar Lap, Phar Lap, will there ever be another so good. The stands shake as Pike clicks him away. No jock ever earned his money so easily.
On this fabulous Tuesday.
What a parade. These fabulous Tuesdays. Drought and depression, good times and bad. We traipsed to Flemington, and the nation holds its breath. Whilst we wonder at the gameness of Light Fingers, or at bolters like Piping Lane, champions like Galilee, or at the gritty Dalray. For they were all touched by immortality.
On this fabulous Tuesday.
Oh what a fabulous Tuesday.
Selecting Lucy Wicks will, to say the least, be a bold choice on the part of the Libs. I would have said that Robertson was conceivably a winnable seat for them, but isn’t there a risk of something a bit like this happening?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPy-PxbdT5c
Oh Meher there are good and bad candidates and people have opinions about what constitutes that – and everyone knows about Lucy Wicks extra marital affair with her much younger staffer , but I thought we had moved past commenting or judging the sexual ethics of women in this country.
Wick’s opponent Michael Feneley practices in the Eastern Suburbs . He was able to claim that he was a local in Dobell last time because he has a weekender at Norah Head (much nicer place than Albo’s apparently at $6M).
Unless he is about to buy a 2nd weekender at Copa, he will suffer the disadvantage of not being a local but then again Wicks is also alleged to have her main residence in Sydney. Officially she is registered for North Avoca – possibly why we were given a federal grant to seal and curb the streets.
LVT: “Oh Meher there are good and bad candidates and people have opinions about what constitutes that – and everyone knows about Lucy Wicks extra marital affair with her much younger staffer , but I thought we had moved past commenting or judging the sexual ethics of women in this country.”
——————————————————————————-
Yes, I would very much hope so.
But Wicks’s “brand” was very much based on a conservative, family-oriented Christianity (albeit that, as far as I recall, she was ok on SSM).
How will the Christian constituency of Robertson feel about a comeback I wonder? Of course, the repentant sinner is a big thing for those people, so it could turn out to be a plus for her.
BTW, I will correct you by saying I have never heard any suggestion that any alleged affair was “extra-marital.” You might wish to correct this comment.
Consider it corrected meher.
The media report said the relationship occurred after the breakdown of wicks marriage.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham:
Essential (primaries not on same scale as other polls because undecided left in)
ALP 31 L-NP 34 Green 12 ON 9 UAP 2 Ind/other 8 undecided 5
Respondent “2PP+” graph not yet updated.
My last election estimate for these primaries 51.7 to ALP (+1.7)
A little under 7 hours til we hear the words “Dixville Notch.” Last time they were unanimous for Biden (very rare that happens).
Good morning, all. Thank you, BK.
Essential.
Looks like voters are getting sick of the slaggers and the Get Albanese Pile on.
They must also appreciate the benefits of fee free TAFE courses and the great VET training outcomes.
Morning all. Free TAFEs is not just a vote winner. It is good policy.
Gutting TAFEs under the Liberals was crazy. It has led to a shortage of skilled tradies and so now we wonder why we can’t build enough houses.
‘Socrates says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 9:37 am
Morning all. Free TAFEs is not just a vote winner. It is good policy.
Gutting TAFEs under the Liberals was crazy. It has led to a shortage of skilled tradies and so now we wonder why we can’t build enough houses.’
========================
I think it is a wonderful policy: good for productivity, good for young people, good for people who have for one reason or another been marginalized in schooling, good for aspirational people and good for the nation. There is also the sort of little known background work that is also making a difference: completion rates are going up.
In the context of the HECs reductions Dutton accused Labor of ‘reckless spending’. He can dole out hundreds of millions to his crony capitalist friends during Covid.
The Trillion Dollar Debt Man has zero regard for the truth.
I don’t think we needed Essential to tell us that voters don’t like politicians getting freebies and contra. I maintain that a ban on politicians accepting gifts apart from tokens (like a bunch of flowers after speaking at a school or whatnot) would be a popular move for Albo like reforming politician pensions was for Latham.
Looks like the Essential figures otherwise do not support the doomsayers’ wishful thinking wild predictions of a Labor wipeout on the back of the last week’s reporting. Too bad, so sad.
@Oliver Sutton – ” but a heretical finding that a slight majority of Australians aren’t interested in ‘the race that stops a nation’.”
I just don’t think horse racing as a sport is very interesting. We live in an era where people increasingly want the human interest element in their sport, and I ain’t seen no horse give no interview or post memes on Tiktok. Then you get the way horse racing as a sport is so inextricably linked with gambling, and the issue of horse welfare which turns an increasing number of people away from it.
They’re doing pretty well for horse racing to have not dwindled away further really.
Workers and peasants aren’t hot for Albo or Dutton Arky .
A high proportion of recent migrants come from countries where horse racing is either non-existent or peripheral to most ordinary people.
@Lars : “Workers and peasants aren’t hot for Albo or Dutton Arky .”
And you’ll continue having a problem with voters while you call them peasants, Lars.
@Boer – “A high proportion of recent migrants come from countries where horse racing is either non-existent or peripheral to most ordinary people. ”
But that hasn’t stopped AFL football.
The declining interest in the Melbourne Cup is at least as much about declining interest from locals such as myself.
With the polling referred to I note that Greens are polling at 12%, One Nation (so Hansen) at 9%, UAP (so Palmer) 2%, Independents at 8% and undecided at 5%
The Greens stand in particular seats, competing with the ALP, One Nation to me is a Queensland phenomenon as is Palmer, whilst Independents are identified because they are in the Parliament (so the “Teals” who hold former blue ribbon Liberal Party seats plus Wilkie plus Katter) and where their vote sees them elected, so a long way in excess of the polled 8%
Accordingly, the polling to me is a rubbish confirmed by who currently holds seats
The only meaningful polling is on election day and seat by seat
And in terms of pathway to government, with a primary vote of 34% what is the pathway for the Coalition Liberal and National parties to government so in what seats held by non LNP representatives will the preferences of One Nation and UAP get them to representation? On the other hand the preferences of the Greens will (or should) flow to the ALP (given nuclear and austerity)
There is also the polling being for the Coalition where the travails of the Liberal Party do not impact the National Party, easily holding their rural and regional seats, particularly in Queensland which currently returns near half the seats the Coalition hold in the parliament
Then there is the voting demographic where data shows the younger cohort significantly voting ALP (or Teal) whilst the older demographic, so over 70’s voting Liberal. Guess where that is going
I seem to recall only Hawke sculling a beer received cheers at a Test match
Consumer confidence rising as inflation falls.
https://x.com/p_hannam/status/1853568342315196927
Arky @ #25 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 10:29 am
Have you ever noticed how “white” AFL teams are (particularly compared to NRL)?
The Melbourne Cup has been surviving on cultural memory for the last 30 years and is now fading rapidly. The TV rating last year was 1.6 Million about 40% 0f AFL GF and NRL SOO
For the record, I have zero interest in horse racing, including the Melbourne Cup. I note quite a few other bludgers feel the same.
We should turn our racetracks into housing estates. We need the land, and most of them occupy large areas of prime real estate. Even Singapore has done it.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Have you ever noticed how “white” AFL teams are (particularly compared to NRL)?
__________________________________
nothing worse than white people.
I’d prefer it if there was a quota in the AFL. At least 20 percent of each team Must be composed of Cambodians.
Too many people are going to university ahead of TAFE or trade schools. TAFE should be free, and universities should start to review the bloat in their degree offering (a sizable chunk are really trumped-up trade courses).
Socratessays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 11:11 am
We should turn our racetracks into housing estates. We need the land, and most of them occupy large areas of prime real estate. Even Singapore has done it.
_____________________
Not going to happen under Labor in Victoria.
They even built a flood wall to make sure the local residents were flooded and not Flemington.
Vic Labor loves horse racing.
Socrates @ #29 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 11:11 am
Those long necks
Skinny white legs
and a significant number of gingers.
1952 Australia says hi
Sorry I was answering Dave, not Socrates and can’t edit
https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/05-november-2024
The Essential Report: 05 November 2024
This has the full poll answers on Australians’ theoretical US Presidential voting intention, the Melbourne Cup, abortion, and politicians’ access to special events and benefits.
https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights
The Essential chart which has the primary voting figures is here. Kevin has estimated a last election TPP (see post above), Essential now shows a respondent allocated 2PP+ of Coalition 49, Labor 47, which leaves in the undecided.
Plenty of vacant prime real estate in the capitals.
Full of flammable eucalypts, called Green Space.
The AFL has significant numbers of indigenous players, many from what were known as ethnic groups, and a growing group from Africa.
It’s true that the AFL doesn’t have players from South Asia or east Asia, but then again the NRL doesn’t either.
Spender doing a lot of Look At Moi.
Where are the Extreme Greens?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/nov/05/australia-news-live-interest-rates-inflation-rba-melbourne-cup-weather-heatwave-defence-cash-bonuses-abortion-cost-of-living
Deeperssays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 8:10 am
To those whose opinion is that the Coalition will be returned to government (and by referencing published polling), the reality check for them is the Council election results in the Federal Seat of Monique Ryan, the Liberal Party wiped out by “teal” aligned candidates starting with the son of a former Liberal Party Premier of Victoria who was instrumental in Ryan’s campaign and a State election “teal” representative (who very narrowly lost to an IPA candidate)
———————————-
Wouldn’t read too much into Rob Baillieu’s win because he has strong name recognition and liberals didn’t endorsed a candidate.
Deeperssays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 8:10 am
To those whose opinion is that the Coalition will be returned to government (and by referencing published polling), the reality check for them is the Council election results in the Federal Seat of Monique Ryan, the Liberal Party wiped out by “teal” aligned candidates starting with the son of a former Liberal Party Premier of Victoria who was instrumental in Ryan’s campaign and a State election “teal” representative (who very narrowly lost to an IPA candidate)
———————————-
Wouldn’t read too much into Rob Baillieu’s win because he has strong name recognition and liberals didn’t endorsed a candidate.
While the Melbourne cup generates more than $460m in gross economic benefit to Victoria, it’s not going anywhere.
I’m not a fan of the racehorse breeding industry and the number of horses produced and disposed of. It’s way over the top.
Mb
There’s been nothing to convince me that the current Teal community independents are in electoral peril.
On the contrary, negative polling for Dutton and the extreme Libs only suggests there’s opportunity for more Teal community independents to sit in parliament.
Peter Dutton has blasted Coalition MPs for fuelling a federal debate on abortion laws, declaring there would be no change to policy if he wins government and they must show more “discipline” on the topic.
Dutton told MPs in his private weekly party-room address on Tuesday morning that the 11th-hour emergence of the issue during the recent Queensland state election campaign may have cost the Liberal National party votes.
One Coalition MP, speaking anonymously, told Guardian Australia that Dutton spoke “very firmly” on the issue in the context of the coming federal election, due by May, and warned against people speaking out, without singling out individuals.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/05/peter-dutton-liberal-coalition-abortion-policy-ntwnfb
Hh
I see that Dutton is gagging his Coalition partyroom on abortion.
Freedom of speech is no longer tolerated under Dutton’s leadership.
I see that Steven Miles was re-elected Qld Labor leader, unopposed. That’s a bit of a statement to fed Labor.
Dutton on abortion can spin it to say. “I am only advocating the Protestant position of the primacy of the individual, and as a conservative party we believe in the primacy of “choice” ”
And all the evangelicals will fall into line pronto
From the Guardian
“Steven Miles has been returned as Queensland Labor leader in the first party room meeting since their loss at last month’s election.
Cameron Dick will once again serve as his deputy.
Both were re-elected unopposed on Tuesday morning.”
Sensible decision IMO. Miles took the fight to the LNP and appeared to cut back their lead.
Miles will also be able to hold Crisafulli to his promises, including the one Crisafulli has already broken about reappointing former Newman government ministers. It seems to be the only form of recycling the LNP likes.
PM promises ‘key policies’ to deliver an increased majority
Anthony Albanese has moved to reassure a caucus troubled by the distractions of his mansion purchase and upgrades furore, pledging to unveil a series of key policies that will deliver Labor an increased majority in the upcoming election.
THe Aus now.
Dead man walking politically the failed prime minister has a backbench who no longer have confidence in this goose.
@Oakeshott:
“Have you ever noticed how “white” AFL teams are (particularly compared to NRL)?”
I think you’re just noticing that the AFL states don’t have the same Pacifica and Maori population as NSW/Qld. I understand there’s a pretty similar percentage of players who identify as Australian Indigenous or Torres Strait Islander between the two codes.
The AFL has done very well at outreach to African communities in Melbourne, especially the Sudanese, and of course the AFL has long since had loads of people from backgrounds that would have once been treated to ethnic slurs such as the Greeks, Italians, Macedonians, Slavs, Turks….
Got to assume that there’s a physical build element to the lack of Asian faces in the AFL (a lack not reflected in the stands, incidentally) no different to the same lack in say the NBA or on the medal podium in a lot of Olympic sports.