Newspoll did not grace us with its usual three-weekly presence on Sunday evening, but the weekly Roy Morgan can always be relied upon – as presumably can the fortnightly Essential Research, which should be reported tomorrow and previewed by the time most of you read this in The Guardian. Roy Morgan finds the Coalition opening up a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after trailing 50.5-49.5 last time. However, this is down to changes in the respondent-allocated preference flow rather than the primary vote, on which both Labor and the Coalition are up half a point, to 30.5% and 38% respectively, with the Greens steady on 14% and One Nation up half a point to 6%. The alternative two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor leading 51-49, in from 51.5-48.5 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1651.
The Guardian has also launched a federal poll aggregate, devised by the publication’s data journalists Josh Nicholas and Nick Evershed together with Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney, based on a model developed by the latter together with political science doyen Simon Jackman. Strikingly, it credits the Coalition witha two-party lead of 51.4-48.6, based on polling data up to and including last week’s Roy Morgan result. That the Labor primary vote of 27.5% is half a point lower than any poll published during the past term presumably reflects the fact that Labor significantly underperformed the polls at both the 2019 and 2022 elections. However, recent state elections have offered no further evidence for bias on such a scale.
On this point, a comparison of performance at the Queensland election by Resolve Strategic, presumably intended to blow the pollster’s own trumpet, demonstrates that the industry did rather well across the board. The national figures from The Guardian aggregate are also worse for Labor than the accompanying state breakdowns, although the latter only track as far as September.
Further:
• Proposed new federal boundaries for the Northern Territory were published in October 18. These predictably dealt with the need for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon to gain voters, and Lingiari to lose them, by transferring the outer suburbs of Palmerston, inclusive of Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli, to Solomon. Antony Green calculates that this increases Labor’s margin in Lingiari from 0.9% to 1.7% and reduces it in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4%.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brian Mitchell, who maintains Labor’s increasingly tenuous grip on the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons, is “being strongly urged by federal figures” to make way for former state party leader Rebecca White, who has been a member for the corresponding state electorate since 2010. It is further reported that Mitchell would be willingly to go quietly, and that White is “understood to be willing to switch”, but “does not want a preselection stoush”.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian also reports Anthony Albanese “blindsided” the Tasmanian branch of the ALP by announcing that Richard Dowling, adviser to state Labor leader Dean Winter and former director of public policy with Meta, would succeed Catryna Bilyk at the top end of the party’s Senate ticket at the next election. The report quotes Bilyk saying she had not said she was retiring as of yet, and that state MP Shane Broad and former Forestry Australia president Bob Gordon had been floated as potential successors if she did. However, Dowling was “assured the position as the choice of the Right faction’s Australian Workers Union”, a fact which was “not widely known within the party” until Albanese made it so.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News reports a Liberal preselection vote for the Hunter region seat of Paterson, held for Labor by Meryl Swanson on what I calculate to be a post-redistribution margin of 2.5%, was won by Laurence Antcliff, operations manager at the Housing Industry Association. Antcliff reportedly won a preselection vote by 24 to 16 ahead of local doctor Owen Boyd.
• The above report further notes that Lucy Wicks, who lost the Central Coast seat of Robertson to Labor in 2022, is considered the front-runner in a preselection ballot for the seat to be held on November 16. She is opposed by Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has run for the party five times in various seats, most recently in Dobell in 2022, and Bernadette Enright, a banking executive.
• David Gillespie, who has held the New South Wales Mid North Coast seat of Lyne for the Nationals since 2013, announced a fortnight ago that he will not recontest the next election.
The Greens/Teals shit sheet Guardian keeps this going for yet another day. They just cannot help themselves.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/05/a-lounge-membership-is-a-valuable-gift-airlines-dont-offer-them-to-mps-for-no-reason
Mexicanbeemersays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 3:32 pm
Bizzcansays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 3:12 pm
RBA looks like it subtlety shifted goal posts – trimmed mean (“underlying”) seems to be the preferred benchmark now.
——————–
That’s pretty much always central bank’s preferred inflation measure.
_____________________
I’m highlighting that it is much more prominent than in previous communication from the RBA (and in a deliberate way). For example:
November forecasts charts both the headline and trimmed inflation forecasts:
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2024/nov/
They did not do so from May and prior forecast statements.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2024/may/
theunaustralian.net BREAKING: Opposition Leader Devastated That He Had To Miss The Horses Getting Shot At the #MelbourneCup2024 Due To Work.
“The Reserve Bank has admitted that it underestimated the growth in government spending, while warning that underlying inflation in Australia was outstripping every other major advanced economy except the UK.”
“Additionally, the RBA cut its annual economic growth forecasts to a tepid 1.5 per cent for 2024. Previously, it had projected GDP growth to recover to 1.7 per cent by the end of this year.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/reserve-bank-holds-interest-rates-at-435-per-cent-as-growth-outlook-weakens/news-story/0ea048e5f3017df45c1d7a2542f21fef
The only reason the ALP Government are running surpluses is that they have been kissed on the dick by a fairy.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 4:10 pm
“The Reserve Bank has admitted that it underestimated the growth in government spending, while warning that underlying inflation in Australia was outstripping every other major advanced economy except the UK.”
“Additionally, the RBA cut its annual economic growth forecasts to a tepid 1.5 per cent for 2024. Previously, it had projected GDP growth to recover to 1.7 per cent by the end of this year.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/reserve-bank-holds-interest-rates-at-435-per-cent-as-growth-outlook-weakens/news-story/0ea048e5f3017df45c1d7a2542f21fef
The only reason the ALP Government are running surpluses is that they have been kissed on the dick by a fairy.’
===========================
The only reason successive Coalition Governments tripled the debt is because they were incompetent.
Price just does not get it.
She was used to divide and conquer.
She was used to destroy the Voice.
She has now passed her use-by date.
What we know is that the Coalition harbours Nasties and Uglies who want to restrict abortions. Dutton doing the petty dictator with the STFU routine cannot hide the truth.
Arkysays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 2:49 pm
At this point the RBA continuing to put that part in their statements hinting they’re still more likely to raise rates than cut them is pure stubbornness and retaliation against all the people telling them they’re wrong.
___________________
Albo’s given up on rate cuts before the Election – hence the uni debt decision. You may have missed the memo.
“While headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high,” the RBA’s post-meeting press statement read.
“It will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range and approaching [2.5 per cent]. This reinforces the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the board is not ruling anything in or out.”
Doesnt sound like rate cuts to moi. I doubt 0.25% before the election is going to be some sort of masterstroke either.
Its a decision between lame and lame or neither of the above atm.
Boerwar @ #101 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 3:38 pm
Ah! I’d missed that one. Thanks. Monique Ryan pointing out the obvious …
Indeed they do not. And guess who ends up paying for these political “freebies”? Hint: It’s not Qantas and it’s not the recipients of Qantas’ largess.
Nate Silver has just released final model outcome. 50.015% for Harris.
NATE SILVER SAYS HARRIS WILL WIN
Well done the Albanese Government. Hundreds of thousands of free TAFE places are changing people’s lives.
Albanese does nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing…
High Streetsays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 4:47 pm
Nate Silver has just released final model outcome. 50.015% for Harris.
NATE SILVER SAYS HARRIS WILL WIN
________________________________
I think he’s actually saying in 50.015% of his simulations Harris wins.
Wouldn’t be betting that expensive Northern Sydney property of yours on this one High Street given those odds.
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 4:10 pm
“The Reserve Bank has admitted that it underestimated the growth in government spending, while warning that underlying inflation in Australia was outstripping every other major advanced economy except the UK.”
“Additionally, the RBA cut its annual economic growth forecasts to a tepid 1.5 per cent for 2024. Previously, it had projected GDP growth to recover to 1.7 per cent by the end of this year.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/reserve-bank-holds-interest-rates-at-435-per-cent-as-growth-outlook-weakens/news-story/0ea048e5f3017df45c1d7a2542f21fef
The only reason the ALP Government are running surpluses is that they have been kissed on the dick by a fairy.
————————————
Well we know that government spending on the NDIS has increased significantly. Every 3 out of 4 jobs created recently have been in the NDIS, with rorters making many $millions, maybe $billions – cost of the NDIS out of control.
As are all the services provided by business.
I guess you weren’t listening to Chalmers when he proudly announced this latest surplus, he said clearly he had cut spending (obviously on certain groups).
Such as those on Jobseeker, following Shorten’s plan for a surplus during the Gillard government- Newstart recipients can live on $35/day. He said (or Macklin said). Over 10 years later Jobseekers still have to live on below poverty payments . Even if the advice from the Jenny Macklin committee in 2023 said Jobseeker should be raised to near aged pension level.
But in Labor eyes these people are not deserving.
As are public school students, especially those 1 in 6 living in poverty, or who have special need, slow learners, a disability.
Not deserving either, with Federal funding to public schools less than that of religious and independent schools.
Or those on low wages with bulk billing not for them, so many can’t afford to see a doctor if they have to pay a gap.
And indigenous housing, health, schooling opportunities, safety in many communities are ignored too. Well known. But ignored.
None of the above will donate to Labor. Hence not deserving of any help.
Albanese’s ’no one left behind’ is a blatant lie in todays Australia.
Incorrect Irene – the define benefit pensionieres get very generous indexation. Not one of them left behind.
Lars Von Trier says:
High Streetsays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 4:47 pm
Nate Silver has just released final model outcome. 50.015% for Harris.
NATE SILVER SAYS HARRIS WILL WIN
________________________________
I think he’s actually saying in 50.015% of his simulations Harris wins.
You need a lesson in identifying sarcasm, Lars….. Lighten up dude.
‘Irene says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 4:58 pm
…..’
==============================
Youth unemployment in China is higher than 20%. Unemployment generally is growing. Wages are falling. Let’s hear it for the Ever Glorious Xi!
@Irene –
You are relentless with your bullshit.
“Not deserving either, with Federal funding to public schools less than that of religious and independent schools.”
As you surely know, this is because most public school funding is done through the states, and would still be the case if the full Gonski had been implemented without special deals. It’s misleading crap spouted only by people intent on being deceitful and dishonest.
Why don’t you answer that accusation, Irene?
“Or those on low wages with bulk billing not for them, ”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/29/bulk-billed-gp-visits-rise-following-introduction-of-incentives-for-doctors-data-shows
Bulk Billing rates have risen under Labor, because of policies Labor has implemented.
This is a fact.
Unlike your lies.
“And indigenous housing, health, schooling opportunities, safety in many communities are ignored too.”
Blah blah blah lying fear uncertainty and doubt.
That is all you spout.
At least with some of the other strawmanners, I think they honestly believe in their cause and they’re just a bit close-minded about it. I don’t think you’re remotely honest. Go away.
The usage of the collection entity (the ATO) to pump money into the economy during the pandemic (and vaccines) instead of the distribution entity (Centrelink) was the reason for the extraordinary increase in government debt, the money supply n the hands of Companies, some of whom repaid some of money courtesy of public pressure (so Public Companies only, not Pry Ltd Companies). This was the root cause of inflation which we know has risen to having a 6 in front of it at the time of the election (and the increase in interest rates was delayed by the RBA because they thought the increase was temporary – noting elsewhere where Central Banks were already increasing interest rates) The inflation trajectory continued to having an 8 in front of it before abating and to the latest quarterly reading, the Cash Rate in Australia peaking at 4.35% (where it is now) and less than in comparable economies where reductions still see the Official rates above 4.35%. The worrying trend globally is the increase in 10 Year Treasuries to mid 4% and over courtesy of the “stickiness” of inflation principally in the Services sector (which includes rents, insurance etc etc)
I would invite a comparison between how the UK under Johnson managed, the Australian government publicly rejecting the UK model of using Social Security to protect households – the statement is on the public record
This is what the ALP has inherited and responded to – including being circumspect with expenditures resulting in successive surpluses
I challenge the religious right austerity proponents to respond to this presentation of FACTS
One other fact overlooked, and which reduces health care costs, is the adjustments made by this government to the eligibility criteria for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card
So access to cheaper medicines (also the doubling of prescriptions) and to bulk billing, which from first hand experience is readily available
The previous government were doing everything possible to take the Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card off people – and having held this Card from the Gillard compensation times I am well aware of the lengths the previous government was going too to take the Card off me
Oh, FFS. They doubled the rate of Jobseeker.
“ JobSeeker Payment expenditure almost tripled during the pandemic, rising from $9.7 billion in 2018-19 to $27.4 billion in 2020-21, before easing to $14.8 billion in 2021-22 (Figure 1). This reflected changes in payment rates and recipient numbers, with recipients doubling from 728,400 in December 2019 to 1,463,900 in May 2020”
https://www.pbo.gov.au/about-budgets/budget-insights/budget-bites/jobseeker-payment-covid-19-age-gender
Watching Albo on 7:30 deliver a boring talk with Labor supporters in the “square” around him holding Ad cards.. boring, un- natural, uninspiring & shallow.. this is gong to be a looong election very looong
The Jobseeker payments were made to COMPANIES based on their GST Statements
SOME only public Companies returned the funds because of publicity, receiving these Jobseeker payments to NPBT (and a tax assessment)
The very fact that this is ignored by a contributor to this site is the description
The government remitted to Companies and those remittances were calculated on the GST data for Companies – it was never paid by government to citizens thru Centrelink hence the difference between the largesse received by Companies (and in regard the figures this is correct, obviously given the source) and what citizens received (in their salary remittances, which in many instances were reduced by Companies) that revenue (contributing to NPBT) taxable in the hands of Companies
The government of the day survived Companies as its priority – not citizens per se
In the UK the survival of citizens was by application directly to government by citizens – and was it Cormann who stated that the Australian government was not going down the path of the UK government (or maybe even Morrison)
The question is why did some (only) public companies repay some (only) of the Jobseeker received to government?
Noting there are also Pty Ltd Companies
The accounting profession was gobsmacked by what the government did – paying big money to Companies making significant profits And these were the major accounting practices
The crap presented by some on here needs correction because it is offered thru party political bias and, it appears, an anti Labor bias
And the criticism of Albanese delivering an address is purile noting this is standard practice across politics, and not only politics
Crusafulli has reversed his election undertaking to cease pill testing at Schoolies, with health minister Nicholl’s announcing the testing will be resumed. As far as broken promises are concerned, this is an eminently sensible one.
It would’ve been a terrible look had a teen died from an ideological stance on illicit drugs. Still, I’ll record it as a broken promise to keep the Tories honest.
Mavis
Pls let me know when the first 10 year old gets a life sentence for an adult crime.
Boerwar:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 8:27 pm
[‘Mavis
Pls let me know when the first 10 year old gets a life sentence for an adult crime.’]
Will do, BW.
Deepers says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 6:35 pm
The usage of the collection entity (the ATO) to pump money into the economy during the pandemic (and vaccines) instead of the distribution entity (Centrelink) was the reason for the extraordinary increase in government debt
______________________
Australian government debt is issued by the Australian Office of Financial Management (in Treasury), not the ATO or Centrelink. So it doesn’t matter either way.
Besides, the real issue with Jobkeeper was the popping up of marginal/barely solvent businesses rather than facilitating an orderly transition, but this is a rather technical point.
I’ll be a rare voice in defending the “overspend” of the program. For world-watchers during the period Jan-to-March 2020 it is hard to overstated how catastrophic the news was, especially with the abundant failure in China, Europe (northern Italy esp) and USA (I still remember the New York morgue trucks). Going hard was absolutely necessary at the time.
50.015% of Monte Carlo’s is landslide territory!!
Texas will go blue again!!
Sprocket will wet his pants if Kamala wins tomorrow.
Indexation applies to pensions, as it applies to Allocated Pensions Self funded retirees are subject to a minimum payment by percentage increasing with age (so calculated off the funds under management regardless of inflation)
In regards superannuation accruals (and the payment of your pension amount) the performance of fund managers has exceeded the percentage requirement (even at the upper levels based on age) over recent years and since the pandemic (and vaccines) and YTD are in double digits for Balanced Funds. Dividends continue to increase (as do the Franking Credits by extension) then we have Term Deposits paying with a 4 in front (from an extended period of zero). Added to that are savings courtesy of government (so prescription costs) plus the changes (upwards) in regards the Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card
There are those who whinge that they are worse off because unemployment benefits are insufficient (in an economy of full unemployment and with labour shortages in education, construction and the list goes on). If this unemployed status is down to personal circumstances including health there is Centrelink support based on status
I would also ask where are the Mortgagee Auction signs – and where is bad and doubtful debt provisioning being reported by our banks, impacting their profit and dividends?
Noting a home mortgage is not the only debt carried – so what vehicles are being driven and what is the finance on them (plus the insurance!). At the local Public Primary School the proliferation of very large vehicles clogging the streets morning and afternoon is staggering – before you get to fuel consumption
Then get a “tradie” and see what they charge (if they get back to you that is)
And no doubt going hard and going fast was the pandemic requirement as it was with the GFC
But ideology got in the way in Australia hence COMPANIES refunding some of the largesse when embarrassed into doing so
Hopefully I won’t wet my pants, at my age it’s not unusual, but I will be very happy if Harris becomes POTUS.
davidwh….
You are not alone with those sentiments. I cannot fathom why over 70 million people will vote for Trump. Depressingly, no matter who “wins”, the US is hopelessly divided. If the US were a country of no consequence to Oz, the state of politics would be sad, but as the US, at the end of the day, is – to all intents and purposes – our final guarantor of defence, our well-being is strongly attached to theirs……This, for better or for the worse.
Tricot I don’t understand Trump’s attraction.
Despite the reporting in the Murdoch media, the government spending referred to by the RBA is retrospective and contributed to inflation over the past 4 years (Australia not alone obviously) and, ultimately in Australia, the Cash Rate at 4.35% where it remains
In confirmation of this is the latest inflation reading – back to where it was 4 years ago, having peaked with an 8 in front of it 2 years ago
Obviously, given what we have endured over the past 4 years and the Global stickiness of inflation courtesy of the Services Sector seeing the movement in 10 Year Bond Yields globally, the RBA is cautious also in regards an upcoming election and spending promises (nuclear anyone?)
Murdoch, as is typical, misrepresents courtesy of political bias
And I am not sure we can comment on the divisions in the USA because we seem to be on the same track
Read on this site
Deeperssays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 8:22 pm
The Jobseeker payments were made to COMPANIES based on their GST Statements …
You are confusing JobSeeker with JobKeeper.
JobKeeper payments were wage subsidies paid by the Commonwealth Government to eligible businesses and not-for-profit entities affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Payments were administered by the Australian Taxation Office and covered the period from 30 March 2020 to 28 March 2021.
Correct.
Under the circumstances JobKeeper was a reasonable program and maintained employment for around 700,000 employees. The program was not based around employer profitability but around loss of revenue (30% or 50%) and allowing employees to maintain contact with their employer during the worst impacts of Covid.
Dorinda Cox has reached “embattled” status.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anatomy-of-a-deflection-how-bandt-palms-off-questions-on-party-bullying-allegations-20241105-p5knww.html
Of course, the Australian Communications and Media Authority was never going to investigate Kyle Sandilands. Albanese was invited to his million dollar wedding.
“Australia’s communications regulator has come under fire for failing to investigate “revolting” material aired on the Kyle & Jackie O show, including “sexist, racist, [and] misogynistic” content.
In a Senate estimates hearing on Tuesday night, the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young challenged the chair of Australia’s communications and media regulator, Nerida O’Loughlin, to read out a sample of comments made on KIIS FM’s flagship breakfast show in recent weeks.
Hanson-Young said that the material, which she circulated to the committee, included “jokes about people being gay, jokes about one of the producer’s Asian housemates, jokes about people not being white … violent language about women and sex and … vulgar detail about sex acts.”
The transcript also included a segment in which Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O Henderson held a competition where female staff recorded themselves urinating for the “boys … to figure out whose flaps made that wee”.
O’Loughlin, the head of Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), refused to read out the transcripts, saying: “I would prefer not to read it out.”
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/nov/05/media-regulator-cant-bring-herself-to-read-out-revolting-kyle-jackie-o-transcripts-in-senate-estimates-hearing
“ Under the circumstances JobKeeper was a reasonable program…”
Well, Harvey Norman certainly thought so after pocketing $16 million dollars in Jobkeeper handouts while posting a record 2020-21 profit.
I am not too familiar with the auspol twittersphere – there is some person, called @adylady9969 who is claiming that a ‘high profile defection’ (but not from ALP) is coming this week.
I’m assuming this is online nonsense but wanted to see if anyone had heard about this poster before and if they have reliable scoops or not.
Davidwh says:
Under the circumstances JobKeeper was a reasonable program and maintained employment for around 700,000 employees.
Well said!
No doubt quite a few were low paid Unionists and JobKeeper was the difference between home and homelessness.
But, no good deed goes unpunished, not a cxhance in a hundred Albo woulda done similar.
Not on Twitter, i’d say Barnaby Joyce or Jacinta Price.
Or Leeser going Teal.
Eddy @10:41 PM.
I’ve never listened to Kyle Sandilands and Jacky O, but reports of their show’s revoltingness occasionally break into the ABC. I understand that it’s been pretty revolting for many years, including while Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison were PM, maybe even back in John Howard’s time as well, but the ACMA did nothing.
I blame Abbott, or Howard, or someone else I don’t like. If you don’t like Albo, why not come up with something real?
The transcript also included a segment in which Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O Henderson held a competition where female staff recorded themselves urinating for the “boys … to figure out whose flaps made that wee”.
_____________________
Albo’s mate.
How the hell could ACMA not investigate that.
Typical Taylormade bringing Albo into everything.
Sandilands truly is a disgrace. It’s beyond me how he retained his gig after that dreadful interview with the teenage girl where she said she’d been sexually assaulted as he was grilling her about whether she’d been sexually active.
Sandilands is the Trump of radio. Money for tripe.
“ If you don’t like Albo, why not come up with something real?”
You can judge someone by the company he keeps, and I don’t like the disgustingly rich arsehole company Albanese keeps. The smiley photos he’s happy to have taken with the likes of the worker sacking union busting Joyce and the revolting Sandilands do very little to create a favourable perception of his character.
Does Albanese cosy up to Kyle so he won’t talk shit about him on his radio show?
A bit like Dutton and Gina then?