Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Little change on voting intention in the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll, which also includes a question on Anthony Albanese’s property purchase.

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll in the Financial Review has the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, a slight improvement for Labor on a 52-48 result last time. The primary votes are all but entirely unchanged, with Labor steady on 30%, the Coalition down one to 41% and the Greens steady on 13%. Despite the headline result, the changes on personal ratings favour the Coalition, with Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 45-41 to 44-43. Peter Dutton is up three on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 39%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 35% and steady on 49%. The poll also got in quick with a question on the Prime Minister’s headline-grabbing $4.3 million property purchase last week, finding 36% saying it had worsened their view of him, 4% that it had improved it, and 52% that it had no impact. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1034.

I have also yet to make note of last week’s Roy Morgan result, which should be superseded later today. It recorded a tie on two-party preferred, unchanged on the previous week, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37.5% (steady), Greens 14% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up half). As usual, the two-party measure based on 2022 election preferences rather than respondent allocation was more favourable to Labor, putting them ahead 51-49, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted October 7 to 13 from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

613 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. Judging by dear Sir Keir’s response to Thorpe’s protest, I think
    he’s hoping to be elevated to the peerage while still in office. Viscount Starmer has a ring to it.

  2. “ Jacinta Nampijinpa Price wants abortion on the national agenda”

    Because if there is one thing Aboriginal women in poor communities with high rates of abuse don’t need, its adequate access to a full range of medical care 😐

    Thanks Jacinta.

  3. Steve777says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 9:08 pm
    I don’t think that the “Liberals” can be too far Right for the voters they’re targeting. They are hoping that they can appeal to their traditional voters via their wallets while gaining new ones (with the help of media allies) using the Trump playbook.
    —————-
    It’s just seriously delusional.

    Can anyone here think of the last time a hard right wing platform won an election. Sir joh was possibly the last hard right premier and a few colonial state governments, but most federal governments are more centralist.

  4. Barbecue, kangaroo pies and Jimmy Barnes: Charles and Camilla go quintessentially Australian for final day of tour
    The royals get on the tongs, banter with surf lifesavers and meet massive crowds at the Sydney Opera House

    Pass the barf bag… what a frigging anachronism

    Don’t forget the reality.. ignore the PR..

    https://www.esquire.com/uk/culture/a34736481/tampongate-scandal-the-crown/

    Edit.. where are Robert Hughes & Germaine Greer when you need them

  6. Price may’ve done Miles a favour. Saturday night might prove very interesting, even though the Mad Hatter party has put the kybosh on introducing a private members’ bill to repeal the 2018 Act that decriminalised abortion in Qld. Nevertheless it’s still a live election issue, as is Dutton’s plan to locate nuclear reactors in Tarong & Callide.

  7. [‘The ACLU and other groups argued in federal court yesterday that a law passed in Louisiana earlier this year requiring schools to display the Ten Commandments in classrooms violates a Supreme Court precedent and the First Amendment. They sued the state to prevent the law from taking effect in January. This was the first time both parties met over the issue.
    …
    The nine Louisiana families who are plaintiffs in the case argue that the law will harm children if it takes effect, Aubri Juhasz of NPR network station WWNO tells Up First. The main focus in court yesterday was whether the case can move forward, as attorneys argue that the plaintiffs don’t have a case until the posters go up in the classrooms. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a similar law in Kentucky in 1980. The federal court judge in Baton Rouge says he will decide whether the case will move forward by Nov. 15.’] – NPR.

  8. FUBAR says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 7:38 pm

    I’m assuming that you are being tongue in cheek.

    Singapore are one of our closest allies. They have permanent military training facilities here and a large amount of armoured vehicles.

    A lot of them are ethnically Chinese but have zero allegiance to China.

    ————

    Yeah Singapore is a critical ally, probably the closest to us culturally in all of Asia and share a similar British colonial history – so they are a gateway for us to develop other relationships in the region.

    Singapore is about 75% ethnic Chinese, 15% native Malay and 10% Indian and the govt there has a made a concerted effort of cultivating a united national identity. Malaysia and Singapore are culturally very similar countries but there is clearly better cohesion between ethnic groups in Singapore mostly due to govt policy. The Chinese in the region obviously identify as ethnically and in many ways culturally Chinese (more so with the traditions of pre-Communist China) but don’t really see China as being a political ally.

    Singapore was kicked out of Malaysia in 1965 and forced to be independent against their own will due primarily to differences in opinion on how different ethnic groups should be treated and Singapore disrupted the demographic balance between Malays and Chinese when they were a united country. Malaysia preferred policies that gave preferential treatment to Bumiputera, literally “son of the soil” or in other words native Malays and other native groups and Singapore advocated for multiracialism/multiculturalism.

  9. Currently our system of housing is unworkable. We would be best to exchange cheat notes with Singapore aa to how people can be affordably housed.

  12. Got the big news story wrong. Reporters have moved on from PM’s house. It is now Lidia Thorpe insults the king. Sorry but beyond common decency to others, who cares.

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