Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Little change on voting intention in the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll, which also includes a question on Anthony Albanese’s property purchase.

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll in the Financial Review has the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, a slight improvement for Labor on a 52-48 result last time. The primary votes are all but entirely unchanged, with Labor steady on 30%, the Coalition down one to 41% and the Greens steady on 13%. Despite the headline result, the changes on personal ratings favour the Coalition, with Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 45-41 to 44-43. Peter Dutton is up three on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 39%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 35% and steady on 49%. The poll also got in quick with a question on the Prime Minister’s headline-grabbing $4.3 million property purchase last week, finding 36% saying it had worsened their view of him, 4% that it had improved it, and 52% that it had no impact. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1034.

I have also yet to make note of last week’s Roy Morgan result, which should be superseded later today. It recorded a tie on two-party preferred, unchanged on the previous week, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37.5% (steady), Greens 14% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up half). As usual, the two-party measure based on 2022 election preferences rather than respondent allocation was more favourable to Labor, putting them ahead 51-49, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted October 7 to 13 from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

613 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 13
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  1. Polling still meh.

    In the event that Freshwater are right on the money, then we are firmly in hung parliament territory. Because, by my reckoning, the Coalition would need a 2pp of 53 per cent or more to achieve an outright majority (and/or a coalition with Katter and perhaps – although it seems unlikely – a Teal or two).

    The situation for the Coalition has been further undermined by the result in Pittwater on Saturday night, which indicates to me that substantial numbers of voters in certain types of affluent suburban areas see Teal-type candidates as a viable ongoing option and not simply as a vehicle for casting a one-off protest vote.

  2. Anthony Albanese will run a negative campaign against Peter Dutton’s “arrogant, aggressive and reckless” personality at the federal election, as he attempts to defy the polls and win majority government through a character assassination and not on Labor’s record alone.
    The attention on the Opposition Leader’s persona will contrast with Mr Dutton’s attack against the “bad decisions” and “broken promises” of the Prime Minister and Labor, with senior Liberal sources saying the party will attempt to oust a first-term government by focusing more on policies than personality.
    After defeating Scott Morrison in 2022 with an effective personal assault, Mr Albanese will tell Australians they’ll be worse off under Mr Dutton as they consider who will be the best leader following a parliamentary term dominated by cost-of-living pressures and the failed voice referendum.
    “Our campaign will ask Australians – what will Peter Dutton’s arrogance cost you?” a senior Labor source said. “He’s arrogant, aggressive and reckless, which is why Australians can’t see him as prime minister. Peter Dutton doesn’t have a plan for the economy or the cost of living. He’s a policy-free zone – the Coalition are the laziest ­opposition in living memory. “He was too arrogant to listen to medical professionals and was voted worst health minister in 40 years by Australian doctors after he cut $50bn from hospitals and froze the Medicare rebate – making it harder to see a doctor.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2025-albaneses-twopart-campaign-strategy-to-go-negative-against-peter-dutton/news-story/f01642e0304a3e6ce81286a9d8ce738b?amp

  3. HH: “Anthony Albanese will run a negative campaign against Peter Dutton’s “arrogant, aggressive and reckless” personality at the federal election, as he attempts to defy the polls and win majority government through a character assassination and not on Labor’s record alone.”
    ——————————————————————————
    I don’t have a subscription to the Oz ATM. Where exactly does this story come from? I’d bet that it’s the good old unamed “party sources.”

    I know that the Albo Government and its advisors have been extremely crap at messaging, but even they’d be aware that this sort of story just makes them look weak and desperate. So I suspect it’s BS.

  4. I think you can say Labor at 30 primary is pretty much locked in now.

    Minority govt is also looking increasingly certain – what is uncertain is just how minority. The probability of a truly hung parly with elections in 12-18 months is increasing.

  5. Going all negative and personal against Dutton is the wrong approach, even though it’ll play well with the Labor base.
    I would prefer a policy based campaign.
    As for the Liberals, the result in Pittwater over the weekend spells doom for their chances federally of winning back the Teal seats of Warringah, McKeller and Wentworth.

  6. Where are we, October and unlikely to see an election any time soon. Seems we have a lock on 51-49 coalition which could get worse but won’t improve for Labor. So Albo is going to attack dog personality politics to keep Dutton on the back foot. A policy or three would be helpful Mr Albanese – maybe he hasn’t fired a shot yet because the election is too far out and he wants to get past next weekends horror show in Qld first. Tick tick tick tick….the punters are getting restless.

  7. My guess is as people focus more on the coming election they’ll increasingly form the view that neither major party can be trusted to hold the reins alone so we’ll probably end up with a parliament in pretty deep minority. Wouldn’t be surprised to see both majors on around 60-65 seats each and up to 25 crossbenchers.

    Even if Albo finds some policies I’m not convinced he’s the man to sell them – think he might have been underestimated for a reason.

  8. A uniform swing of 3.3% would see Labor reduced to 67 seats in parly.

    A sub 70 seat number for Labor and coalition at same level seems likely on these numbers.

    The teals and the greens will be in the box seat – let’s hope they have a policy agenda ready to go and don’t just accept confidence and supply.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Sean Kelly provides what is a sobering assessment of Albanese’s slow and steady approach.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-wants-to-hit-us-where-we-live-it-s-a-do-or-die-strategy-20241020-p5kjqq.html
    When it rains it pours, and right now it feels like the NSW Liberal Party is drowning, writes Michael McGowan after the party’s big defeat in the Pittwater byelection.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/when-it-rains-it-pours-and-right-now-it-feels-like-the-nsw-liberal-party-is-drowning-20241020-p5kjqh.html
    While the Liberal party managed to hold on to two of the three seats holding byelections on Saturday, it was undoubtedly a bad result and a disappointment, with the seat of Pittwater lost to an independent. This is not the first time that a party has lost a seat in a byelection to an independent – indeed it’s not even the first time this has happened to the Liberal party in Pittwater – but it is the continuation of a decline in the position of the Liberals in northern Sydney, in an area that was once their heartland, writes Ben Raue.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/20/losing-heartland-seat-to-teal-jacqui-scruby-marks-continuing-decline-nsw-liberal-party-northern-sydney
    Making political assumptions based on one byelection result is asking for trouble, but independent Jacqui Scruby’s victory in the heartland seat of Pittwater on Saturday must be daunting for a Liberal Party shaping up to fight a federal election while simultaneously trying to reform a moribund, scandal-ridden NSW branch, says the SMH editorial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/heartland-blues-continue-for-the-liberals-20241020-p5kjq8.html
    In part, the election result was due to the Canberra Liberals branch being captured by the most conservative of the movement. That doesn’t go down well with Canberrans, writes The Canberra Times’ Lucy Bladen.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8796517/act-election-2024-why-the-canberra-liberals-failed-to-win/?cs=14329
    Whatever his policy, Peter Dutton will be a big target on workplace relations, predicts Michelle Grattan.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8795513/industrial-relations-the-key-battleground-for-dutton/?cs=27845
    Chris Bowen will accelerate the government’s program of underwriting renewable energy to meet overwhelming demand for the subsidies from project developers and in a renewed bid to get emissions reduction targets back on track. Phill Coorey and Angels Macdonald-Smith writes that in his speech to open The Australian Financial Review Energy and Climate Summit today, Mr Bowen will say the next auction in the capacity investment scheme will be increased in size by two-thirds to 10 gigawatts.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-supersizes-renewables-auction-to-get-climate-targets-on-track-20241018-p5kjjv
    Left wing journalists love quoting Jews who criticise Israel. It’s a version of the ABC’s strategy of rolling out the welcome mat for former Coalition leaders who want to criticise the Coalition, complains The Australian’s Chris Mitchell.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/israel-truths-buried-under-false-media-narrative/news-story/5be2f1e6758f0e97fa95e16a29f83585?amp
    A proposal to build thousands of affordable homes for essential workers using innovative construction methods could reduce building costs by 20 per cent, explains Max Madison. We do need disruptive approaches like this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-new-way-of-building-housing-that-could-lower-construction-costs-by-20-per-cent-20241018-p5kje8.html
    Melbourne’s suburbs will be transformed in a city-shaping plan to fast-track hundreds of thousands of new homes across 50 neighbourhoods. Broede Carmody writes that the bold plan will reshape the skyline, with high-rise buildings to pop up across the suburbs – particularly in some of the leafiest and most expensive areas in the city’s east and south-east.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/fifty-new-areas-getting-fast-tracked-high-rise-apartments-here-s-where-20241019-p5kjmb.html
    Meanwhile, Kieran Rooney reports that stamp duty will be slashed for all off-the-plan units, townhouses and apartments starting today under a 12-month stimulus plan by the Allan government to encourage denser developments and save buyers tens of thousands of dollars.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/stamp-duty-slashed-on-units-apartments-but-you-ll-have-to-get-in-quick-20241020-p5kjsh.html
    The nation’s peak business body has called for a $10bn housing reform fund that will pay out to states that fix the regulation and planning bottlenecks contributing to the supply crisis. The Business Council of Australia is also pushing for the nation-wide removal of stamp duty on homes, warning that it disincentivises people from moving to smaller dwellings and freeing up larger homes. Sarah Basford-Canales writes that the industry body’s housing report, released today, has called for “urgent action from all levels of government” as the Albanese government lags behind in its target to build 1.2m new homes by the decade’s end.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/21/big-business-calls-for-10bn-housing-reform-fund-to-reward-australian-states-that-streamline-supply
    Both major parties are quietly drafting schemes to partly subsidise households to install batteries and rooftop solar panels ahead of the next federal election, which experts say could save bill payers up to $1000 a year. Mike Foley writes that with the cost-of-living crisis dominating community concerns, Canberra insiders and energy industry players say the Albanese government and Peter Dutton’s opposition are working on household electrification policies to take to the next election, due by mid-May next year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/battery-solar-schemes-coming-to-zap-household-bills-by-up-to-1000-20241017-p5kj1t.html
    The climate policies of both of Australia’s main political parties are based on bullshit, declares Alan Kohler who says it’s part of a general malaise in policymaking where caution has replaced boldness, but climate change is the pinnacle of modern policy challenge because the stakes are the highest and the solutions the hardest.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/10/21/alan-kohler-australia-bullsht-climate-policies
    The Albanese government’s imminent decision on whether to ban gambling ads should be guided by facts, not the squawks of vested interests, urges the Grattan Institute’s Elizabeth Baldwin.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/sport/gambling-ad-ban-listen-to-the-facts-not-the-vested-interests-20241002-p5kf7e
    “King Charles is not the adversary of an Australian republic – but hasn’t the time of the crown gone?”, writes Thomas Keneally.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/20/king-charles-is-not-the-adversary-of-an-australian-republic-but-hasnt-the-time-of-the-crown-gone
    Environmental officers will soon be vaccinating wild populations of endangered animals against an inevitable outbreak of deadly bird flu, breeding captive “insurance” populations of threatened species and picking up carcasses to limit the spread of the disease. Mike Foley tells us that these are the unprecedented actions Australian governments are preparing for under a new $100 million funding package to prepare for what experts say is an inevitable outbreak of a deadly variant of bird flu, known as H5N1, which has decimated wildlife on every continent except Australia.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wildlife-emergency-australia-prepares-for-bird-flu-onslaught-20241015-p5kicw.html
    Extra fees for paying on a card have annoyed consumers for years. Now there’s a compelling case for making significant changes to the surcharging regime, says Clancy Yeates who tells us why those pesky card surcharges are no longer doing their job.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-those-pesky-card-surcharges-are-no-longer-doing-their-job-20241017-p5kj8k.html
    Abortion is decriminalised Australia-wide. Jacqui Maley wonders why the hell are we debating it again.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abortion-is-decriminalised-australia-wide-why-the-hell-are-we-debating-it-again-20241018-p5kjgy.html
    Embattled casino operator Star Entertainment Group is bracing for the release of its annual report with an update from the board on how precarious its financial position is. Colin Kruger explains how Star Entertainment’s board, and its auditors, must sign off on the accounts and determine whether the company is a going concern by October 30. This means the company, in their opinion, would be able to pay its liabilities as they fall due over the next year. It’s going to be a big day!
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/more-uncertainty-for-star-investors-despite-licence-reprieve-20241020-p5kjpr.html
    Australia’s safe limits for cancer-linked “forever chemicals” in drinking water will be dramatically lowered under a proposal that is likely to force the clean-up of tap water supplied to hundreds of thousands of people across the country. Carrie Fellner tells us that the new thresholds, to be announced by the National Health and Medical Research Council today, would slash allowable levels of three different kinds of per- and polyfluoroalkyl chemicals (PFAS) in tap water and introduce limits for the first time on a fourth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-will-dramatically-cut-forever-chemicals-in-tap-water-but-it-will-mean-a-big-clean-up-20241020-p5kjrv.html
    Clay Lucas writes that one Australian doctor prescribed cannabis scripts to 12,000 patients in one six-month period, the health watchdog says, as concerns are raised about the quality of telehealth appointments at the heart of the booming cannabis industry. The doctor’s feat – which amounts to prescribing cannabis to 90 patients a day in a typical working week – was an extreme example of what critics say is a business rather than a healthcare-driven approach from too many of the nearly 3000 approved providers in Australia. Something wrong here!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ninety-patients-a-day-telehealth-tick-and-flick-cannabis-scripts-under-fire-20241017-p5kj7l.html
    Angus Thompson reveals that women are being charged thousands of dollars a year for laser therapies to treat symptoms of menopause despite a crackdown by the medical device regulator and studies showing they are no more effective than a placebo. Disgusting!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-4000-therapy-scientists-say-is-no-better-than-a-sham-20241017-p5kizz.html
    Nick McKenzie, Kate McClymont and Max Mason give us more details about WiseTech Global’s CEO Richard White following an emergency weekend meeting of the company’s board. He is referred to as the “LinkedIn Lecher”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-linkedin-lecher-billionaire-s-controversial-approaches-board-concerns-revealed-20241020-p5kjpm.html
    He was elected in February but was only inaugurated on Sunday; Indonesia’s new President, Prabowo, has taken over from the jovial and popular Jokowi. Our Indonesian correspondent, Duncan Graham, reports on what it may mean for Australia.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/indonesia-has-a-new-president-prabowo-should-we-be-worried/
    “Very little in America is what it appears to be; especially in politics. The ether is filled with lies and misrepresentations and even those who make their living parsing language and facts struggle to find what is true and real. Voters must rely on a cascade of commercials for information that is usually profoundly false and damaging to the electoral process. Our republic has arrived at a place where there are “alternative facts” that give comfort to people seeking reinforcement of belief systems founded on tortured rhetoric and conspiracy theories. In the next few weeks, this situation might just become untenable”, writes James Moore.
    https://theaimn.com/a-turbulent-and-troubled-land/
    Farrah Tomazin reports that Elon Musk has been accused of illegally paying for votes after saying he would give away $US1 million ($1.49 million) a day to registered voters in Pennsylvania – a key swing state where he is campaigning on behalf of Donald Trump. America is f****d!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/musk-accused-of-illegally-paying-for-votes-with-us1-million-election-giveaway-20241021-p5kjtp.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    Badiucao

    Matt Golding


    Glen Le Lievre with a gif

    https://x.com/i/status/1847433108548989088
    Joe Benke

    Peter Broelman

    Leak

    From the US
















  10. UK Voting Intention Via @OpiniumResearch , 16-18 Oct. Changes w/ 2-4 Oct:

    LAB: 31% (=)
    CON: 24% (=)
    RFM: 20% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    GRN: 8% (=)
    SNP: 2% (-1)

  11. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Monday, October 21, 2024 at 6:09 am
    Anthony Albanese will run a negative campaign against Peter Dutton’s “arrogant, aggressive and reckless” personality at the federal election, as he attempts to defy the polls and win majority government through a character assassination and not on Labor’s record alone.
    The attention on the Opposition Leader’s persona will contrast with Mr Dutton’s attack against the “bad decisions” and “broken promises” of the Prime Minister and Labor, with senior Liberal sources saying the party will attempt to oust a first-term government by focusing more on policies than personality.
    After defeating Scott Morrison in 2022 with an effective personal assault, Mr Albanese will tell Australians they’ll be worse off under Mr Dutton as they consider who will be the best leader following a parliamentary term dominated by cost-of-living pressures and the failed voice referendum.
    “Our campaign will ask Australians – what will Peter Dutton’s arrogance cost you?” a senior Labor source said. “He’s arrogant, aggressive and reckless, which is why Australians can’t see him as prime minister. Peter Dutton doesn’t have a plan for the economy or the cost of living. He’s a policy-free zone – the Coalition are the laziest ­opposition in living memory. “He was too arrogant to listen to medical professionals and was voted worst health minister in 40 years by Australian doctors after he cut $50bn from hospitals and froze the Medicare rebate – making it harder to see a doctor.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2025-albaneses-twopart-campaign-strategy-to-go-negative-against-peter-dutton/news-story/f01642e0304a3e6ce81286a9d8ce738b?amp

    Oh, how inspiring.

  12. And people say the Murdoch media has lost its influence. Here in this thread it’s already influencing Rex – but I guess that it is still Liberal supporters (secret or not) who buy into it

  13. Uncle Phil AFR says “labor has nothing”.

    That’s a bit unfair they a have lots,dud Ministers,Dud
    Policies,a unpopular failing and snout in trough Prime Minister,Failed housing policy,failed immigration policy,failed skills matching,failed job network,failed inflation strategy,failed NDIS scheme ,Failed Centrelink pension processes and failed vision.

    Now let’s see what goes wrong this week!

    Trend is not labors friend 57-43 now 49-51.

    Popcorn anyone.

  14. I see that the concerted attacks on Albanese from all sides, including by several Bludger nasties, is working nicely. Now for the counter attack.

  15. Most popular coping mechanisms:

    1) polls are wrong or rigged
    2) it’s a normal mid term poll slump
    3) when the election is called people will focus on the liberals and realise actually how brilliant Labor is
    4) interest rate cuts are just around the corner
    5) when interest rate cuts happen Albo and the govt will regain all lost ground and then some

  16. A rumination on the Hare Clark system: one of the previous Labor/Greens Government’s more competent ministers was Mick Gentleman, a man of good character and of good values and of good principles.
    I had met Mick from time to time and, in terms of willingness to discuss issues and in terms of being across his briefs, he got the tick of approval.
    ACT ministers usually hold multiple ministries and such was the case with Mick.
    As such they are usually very, very busy doing their day jobs.
    This cuts down on the time they can go door knocking, kissing babies and scratching dogs.
    OTOH, the non-sitting member candidates on their Party slates have all the time in the world to do all of the above. Which, in Mick’s electorate, they did.
    This has resulted in Mick losing his seat to a Labor colleague.
    Surely this is a perverse outcome of Hare Clark?

  17. The Liberals in the ACT are about to go with the traditional Liberal coping mechanism in response to the only poll that counts – retreating to their querencia. The crazy christian zealots on the right will kick out a presentable leader and put in a far right retread hack.
    They will then probably spend the next four years trying to bastardize Indigenous youth, to work over trans people and to suppress women wanting to control their bodies.

  18. Socrates on Sun at 9.19 pm

    “My irony meter is broken”.

    That might touch a raw nerve in Ukraine. Boris Johnson, by pushing the Ukrainians to ditch a possible negotiated end to Putin’s war when Putin was weak in April 2022, contributed to much greater mayhem for Ukrainian civilians and a huge number of Ukrainian soldier casualties (relative to what had occurred in the first six weeks of the war), as well as to a probable loss of Ukrainian territory as Putin ravaged on.

  19. Dr D do you really think BoJo would have been decisive on that score? Or to put it another way if Washington had wanted Kiev to do a deal they would have allowed BoJo to stand in the way?

    Ultimately Washington has been happy to have an extended bleed out of the Russians.

  20. BKsays:
    Monday, October 21, 2024 at 7:20 am
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Sean Kelly provides what is a sobering assessment of Albanese’s slow and steady approach.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-wants-to-hit-us-where-we-live-it-s-a-do-or-die-strategy-20241020-p5kjqq.html
    ______________
    Sean Kelly discusses the slow and steady approach of the Albanese government, nailing that the piecemeal reform doesn’t add up to enough to be felt, and contrasts this with DAndrews’ level crossing removal (tangible).
    Misses that the surcharge changes would be more of the same. It’s another intangible piecemeal reform that will barely make a dint, and any savings will be swiftly eaten up by the inexorable march of cost of living pressures.
    They’d be better served identifying a bold reform akin to stage 3, but with a legitimate progressive bent.

  21. meher baba at 5.52 am, Lars at 7.03 am

    The journalistic idiom of a fabled uniform swing belongs in the land of MMP across the ditch, not in Australia. That was obviously historically, contra Malcolm Mackerras, and the Teals have reinforced the point.

    Luxon and his populist mates are still hanging on to a lead in NZ, with a projected 63 seats out of current 121, but the recession will be deeper there, partly due to less government spending and less immigration.

  22. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, October 21, 2024 at 8:11 am
    Most popular coping mechanisms:
    […]
    2) it’s a normal mid term poll slump

    I’m pretty sure this result (also taking into account the MOE) is within the typical swing against the incumbent.

    And didn’t KB mention something about this?

  23. The reality is that with Dutton and the leftover disgraced LNP, having been given a dream run by the sunset tree media and their technological add-ons, cannot seemingly get anywhere near despatching Albanese/Labor in the polling.

    The electorates, as displayed by the results in Pittwater in Sydney and the Orange Teal version in The ACT election, are in no mood to presumptuously assume that the Dutton/LNP are ready for office.

    The more the media pump up the Dutton/LNP political tyres, the more exposed and unsteady the Dutton/LNP vehicle becomes.

    There is much political highway to travel in the next six months before an election.

    Labour is backing the trending positive signs in the economy while the other mob are hoping it all becomes a trainwreck.

    Albanese and Labor are accepting both the changing technological advances occurring and are seen to be as much as possible reshaping and adjusting policy to suit.

    The last century’s LNP policy indications are seen to be that with every day, no better exemplified that the changes regarding renewable energy, household solar, grid development and businesses generally adopting the new efficiencies associated with the changing times and increased productivity from renewables.

    Housing and interest rates have spooked many a political balance since the 1970s.

    Albanese is displayed after the new house imbroglio, new wife, financial security, environmental positive credentials and relatively conservative outlook by the media beat up as what ?
    It’s not so different to the desire of most Australians “to get ahead”
    And it’s certainly very little different to the “ex copper” from Qld, new houses, new wife, blended family, financial security but with an extremely conservative outlook.

    Australia will need to make a decision the trustworthy Albanese/Labor mob or the untrustworthy neanderthals and their stone age policies.
    The only difference will be the “sauce on top” and the choices of dessert being the Teals or Greens.

    Australians are pretty past putting tomato or BBQ sauce on everything.

  24. S. Simpson @ #10 Monday, October 21st, 2024 – 7:26 am

    Labor only have themselves to blame for their poor primary vote.

    And people like you who excuse the shambles that the Liberal Party is in in at least 4 States- NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania-so that you can spend all your time and available bandwidth criticising a competent, if unspectacular (and aren’t we all tired of the bread and circuses of the Coalition yet?) Labor government.

    Don’t you ever reflect on this approach? And possibly moderate it in the run-up to the next election? Because you must know that The Greens’ vote is topping out at 13% on a good day, so they won’t get to be the government, which only leaves, and I’ll give you one guess as to who that will be? Or are you hoping that, if you criticise the federal government just enough then you will end up with the Utopian ideal (and I use ‘Utopian’ deliberately wrt the TV show as well because that’s what a Minority government would end up being like, a government of compromise with a thousand fathers)? Well, good luck with that. I’m sorry but I just don’t share that blind optimism about a Minority government and it sure as hell ain’t gonna be with The Greens, if that’s what you’re hoping for because The Greens have well and truly burnt their bridges with Labor this term.

    Anyway, carry on, because I know that nothing I can say will dissuade you, but don’t come complaining to us here when the death by a thousand cuts has occurred and you are shocked that the country could elect a Coalition government! Because you need to have looked in the mirror first and have reflected.

  25. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I hope Labor proceed with the cost of living and housing policies. Action on both is needed.

    Dr Doolittle

    I am not a fan of Boris Johnson for multiple reasons, going back to before the Brexit folly. IMO he is a self serving buffoon. He has done enormous damage to his own country. Why would anyone think he can be relied upon to give non-damaging advice to Australia or Ukraine?

    I would agree though that Washington does also have mistakes to answer for over Ukraine. In 2023 to first push Ukraine into making a counterattack, then send the required support for it too little and too late, was setting Ukraine up for defeat.

    After two decades of failed campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan why does anyone still think the US military are the experts on fighting conventional wars? The evidence says they are not. Yet our political and military leaders follow them blindly.

  26. This is an impotent and disappointing govt that is unable to proactively address growing problems, there’s no point pretending otherwise. Hence the unabated decline in both Labor’s primary and 2PP position.

    It’s a bit presumptuous to assume Labor will perform well enough to only need teal support if they can form a minority govt.

  27. … what experts say is an inevitable outbreak of a deadly variant of bird flu, known as H5N1, which has decimated wildlife on every continent except Australia.
    Decimated Wildlife on every other continent?
    Is this true, or is it another Labor boondoggle?

  28. Both major parties are quietly drafting schemes to partly subsidise households to install batteries and rooftop solar panels ahead of the next federal election, which experts say could save bill payers up to $1000 a year. Mike Foley writes that with the cost-of-living crisis dominating community concerns, Canberra insiders and energy industry players say the Albanese government and Peter Dutton’s opposition are working on household electrification policies to take to the next election, due by mid-May next year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/battery-solar-schemes-coming-to-zap-household-bills-by-up-to-1000-20241017-p5kj1t.html

    I’m astounded at the improvement in Solar technology since we installed our first 6.6kW system plus battery 7 years ago.
    We have built a new house with a 10+kw system with microinverters, Tesla Powerwall and Gen 3 car charger…it is brilliant. Combined with the appropriate insulation, double glazing etc on the house we spent $2.23/ day during winter (Canberra region) and at the moment, we are effectively living off-grid despite living in a rural town.
    Yes, feed-in tariffs are low, but they are only the fruit on the mantlepiece compared to the benefits of outer new system.

  29. Oh poo poo,let’s fire a pre-emptive shot across Labors’ bough.
    The Australian has listed some points that worry them.
    & have bundled them up as some concern the ALP may fight back.

    Anyhoo, Peter Dutton justly deserves wider exposure on his portfolio performances & how his decisions have impacted government today.
    Why is that somehow taboo?

    As we can see some already out of the blocks poo pooing the possible strategy as undignified.

    Exactly the mind fuzz impact The Australian is harnessing.

  30. goll says:
    Monday, October 21, 2024 at 8:45 am
    The reality is that with Dutton and the leftover disgraced LNP, having been given a dream run by the sunset tree media and their technological add-ons, cannot seemingly get anywhere near despatching Albanese/Labor in the polling.
    Good post as always…
    I noted as much (but less succinctly) a few weeks back…Labor have the advantage of government, Dutton has been given a dream run to be what ever he is (?) and he’s muffed it. JWH spent ages behind in the polls, and yes,Tampa was a gift from the dogs, but seriously…

  31. mj says:
    Monday, October 21, 2024 at 9:10 am
    This is an impotent and disappointing govt that is unable to proactively address growing problems, there’s no point pretending otherwise. Hence the unabated decline in both Labor’s primary and 2PP position.

    It’s a bit presumptuous to assume Labor will perform well enough to only need teal support.

    _____________

    Lol! I hope the last line was intended as satire. There is definitely a presumption in your post 🙂

  32. Boarwar at 8.22am, and long may the crazy Christian zealots continue their takeover of what used to be a liberal party. These people don’t have the guts to publicise their real intentions. The MSM may not reveal what is happening but the majority of Australians will not accept having zealots telling us how to live our lives. The true intentions of these loons becomes the focus of attention prior to elections, just like it did in Queensland. I wouldn’t stress too much this far out.

  33. They couldn’t even build car parks but now they’re trying to convince us they’ll be able to do this off a standing start with a still unresolved skills shortage in the country:

    Opposition unveils $5 billion infrastructure boost

    The Coalition unveiled its plan for housing over the weekend, in which it would spend $5 billion on infrastructure to support housing developments, such as sewerage, water and power.

    Opposition housing spokesperson Michael Sukkar joined ABC News Breakfast to discuss the proposal, saying the money would flow through local governments who tell him the “biggest barrier” to housing is critical infrastructure.

    “It’s not the most exciting in the world. We’re talking sewerage and telecommunications, we’re talking access roads, but in essence to make a housing project work, to get water in, sewerage out, people in via vehicles, people out,” Sukkar said.

    Giving an example, Sukkur said the funding would allow local councils to subcontract jobs such as road upgrades.

    “That would then allow them to not only approve 5000 new homes but approve a new school, approve a new little shopping strip,” he said.

    “This is catalyst infrastructure that has not been funded to the level it should be in recent years. That’s why there’s 500,000 homes that can be unlocked pretty quickly.”

    (9Fax)

    All I can see is a bunch of people trying to win outer suburban seats. I get that. Also, a new trough for little Coalition piggy mates to stick their noses into for fun and profit. ‘Road upgrades’? Was Michael Sukkar reminded that whenever a private company does roads they like to stick a toll on them to make us pay for them? And don’t forget that a part of the Coalition’s plans from previous eras was to privatise water and sewerage services. I guess that’s what Sukkar is asking the suckers in the electorate to swallow today without saying the quiet part out loud. So, basically taxpayer $$ out the door to these guys and eventual privatisation which is always the Coalition agenda.

    Finally, Sukkar bemoans that the basic infrastructure hasn’t been provided up to now. So, remind me who was in in government up to 2022 and had the power to do it but didn’t?

    Well, obviously the Coalition and Sukkar believe there’s a sucker born every minute.

  34. The problem that the Albanese government has is that it – rightly or wrongly – projects an image of paralysis. It just make tiny moves in one direction or another. The result is that they have lost 2024 – and you can’t afford to lose a year in a three year term especially in your first term. They are heading toward a minority government – hard to see the Coalition getting a path to majority unless all the Teals dropped out. And a minority Labor government – then what? More of the same? Inertia.

  35. The Mad Katters and a few Liberal Crazies let the abortion cat out of the bag in Queensland, and their electoral chances will be diminished as a consequence, sadly probably not enough to keep them off the treasury benches.

    Has anyone asked Bob his views on abortion?

  36. The other problem that we have is that the party structure that we have is ossified. The rise of the Teals show that there are a lot of votes out there looking for a home BUT it needs a party structure to give it any heft. There is need for a party that is economically free market, socially liberal and pro climate change. A bunch of independents does not provide that base for change or stability.

  37. IMO, The Liberal party of Australia politicians and members are supporters of Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican party.

    I give 3 high profile Liberal party member examples
    1. During RNC 2924 after Trump was officially nominated as Republican party presidential nominee, Michael Kroger went on regular Sky News(not Sky after dark) and virtually kissed Trump ample backside where it splits.
    2. John Howard did not want to endorse Kamala Harris even after his Iraq was mate Dick Cheney endorsed her.
    3. Alexander Downer publicly said that he will hold his nose and vote for Trump (if he was American).

    Dutton took leave from July 3 to 19th and went to USA for “holidays”.
    Disastrous Debate for Biden between Biden and Trump happened on June,27th, 2024
    RNC happened between 15th July to 18th July.
    Rupert Murdoch was at the Convention.
    Dutton was somewhere in USA at that time. He could have received Project 2025 document.
    Reproductive rights is one of the policy items in Project 2925.

    Dutton is from QLD and Crisafulli is also from QLD.
    LNP believes that they are going to win QLD election by big margin. So maybe Dutton wants to experiment in QLD. Connect the dots.

  38. Blackburnpseph says:
    Monday, October 21, 2024 at 9:27 am
    The problem that the Albanese government has is that it – rightly or wrongly – projects an image of paralysis. It just make tiny moves in one direction or another. The result is that they have lost 2024 – and you can’t afford to lose a year in a three year term especially in your first term. They are heading toward a minority government – hard to see the Coalition getting a path to majority unless all the Teals dropped out. And a minority Labor government – then what? More of the same? Inertia.

    ————

    Albo’s strategy was make small, incremental changes, don’t scare the horses and they’ll follow you. Turns out the horses have all run off anyway.

    Agree there is a market for a liberal party – and a labour party as well.

  39. “The poll also got in quick with a question on the Prime Minister’s headline-grabbing $4.3 million property purchase last week, finding 36% saying it had worsened their view of him, 4% that it had improved it, and 52% that it had no impact. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1034.”

    Missed opportunity to break it down by preferred political party.

  40. It’s actually the Katter Party that are ther most Trumpy. Anti Abortion. Pro Corporal Punishment. Pro Their type of Union.

  41. The horses may have run off mj at 9.43am, but come election time they won’t be herding around the LNP with their uncosted nuclear follies and inability to prevent religious crazies trying to secretly tell us how to live our lives.

  42. Trump isn’t anti abortion or pro corporal punishment.
    Katter Party politics is just 1950s Labor Party politics.
    There’s still a market for it out in the scrub.

  43. I’d stay away for building an entire campaign based on PD’s personality. People have the perception he’s a hard man and have baked that into their opinions. The current polling seems to be more of a referendum on Albo rather than anything that Labor has done on a policy front. The ‘do nothing’ opinion people have on Albo and Labor is misplaced for reasons other have already unpacked. still 6 months to go before an election.

    2PP polling as it stands doesnt mean a return to an LNP government as there’s the massive cross bench to get past and we’ll see how well the Teals and Greens have done to embed themselves for more than a single term. Probably enough because they haven’t had to vote on a minority governments policy), ironically a majority government means they can play on that and dont get Oakshotted (thats a real word right).

    We’ll see how it plays out, not yet panic stations and we all know there’s pretty much zero blow back on switching out unpopular leaders these days. NSW and federal Liberals proved that for the past Decade.

  44. Anny, as a party loyalist when you consider Albo’s performance in govt, you are:

    a) Really Excited about it
    b) Meh
    c) Very disappointed or
    d) None of the above

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