Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Little change on voting intention in the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll, which also includes a question on Anthony Albanese’s property purchase.

The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll in the Financial Review has the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, a slight improvement for Labor on a 52-48 result last time. The primary votes are all but entirely unchanged, with Labor steady on 30%, the Coalition down one to 41% and the Greens steady on 13%. Despite the headline result, the changes on personal ratings favour the Coalition, with Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 45-41 to 44-43. Peter Dutton is up three on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 39%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 35% and steady on 49%. The poll also got in quick with a question on the Prime Minister’s headline-grabbing $4.3 million property purchase last week, finding 36% saying it had worsened their view of him, 4% that it had improved it, and 52% that it had no impact. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1034.

I have also yet to make note of last week’s Roy Morgan result, which should be superseded later today. It recorded a tie on two-party preferred, unchanged on the previous week, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37.5% (steady), Greens 14% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 6% (up half). As usual, the two-party measure based on 2022 election preferences rather than respondent allocation was more favourable to Labor, putting them ahead 51-49, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted October 7 to 13 from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

613 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. I’m with dave regarding the economic complexity point and Bizzcan regarding the Menzies Libs wasting decades scratching sheep arses. And people want to go back to ancient protectionist pre Hawke economic idiocy….

    @Boer – yeah I saw that. And on the one hand, I understand that someone with family there and who sees bombs dropped on the place they used to live is not going to be depassionate about it and I empathise, but on the other this is a newspaper and just publishing all this venting ain’t helping and will no doubt inspire our Coalition leaning friends to see it and be all “well go back where you came from if you hate Australia so much”. What do they want on Lebanon anyway, Australia sending troops to fight Israel?

  2. There is some irony involved in pseudonymous commenters on a blog arguing that other forms of speech (protest, published opinion writing) won’t achieve anything or isn’t helping.

  3. The prospect of war with Singapore is ridiculous; but more to the point, the thing about telco infrastructure is you can’t really pack it up and take it away. If there was a war, it wouldn’t matter who owned it, control would be seized immediately.

    Both ways, the idea that we need to nationalise Optus now for national security reasons is just a little bit ridiculous.

  4. What is the world coming to?
    An ABC reporter just used the Catholic “H”
    Would never have occurred under Sir Charles Moses

  5. PageBoi: I’m very pleased to hear they were arrested.

    I’d like to think that anyone, even 16yos, who threaten other members of the community with weapons would receive a custodial sentence. But I’m resigned to the way these things are done at the moment. And I hope for you and your family’s sake that these individuals are made to pay for what they did.

    As Been There said, the courts across our wonderful nation do not favour any form of custodial sentences for the majority of young offenders. Hence, there is a hard core group that one might describe as “frequent flyers.” Around one-third of young offenders are proceeded against by the police on more than one occasion in a financial year. And, by calculations I have made using the ABS data, this hard core group of offenders are, on average committing four crimes a year nationally, and closer to six crimes a year on average in the NT. Around one quarter of these crimes are violent – or, to use the ABS definition, involve “acts intended to cause injury.” Depressingly, the proportion of crimes committed by Indigenous youths in the NT and NSW that fall into this category is over 50 per cent, although it is only 29 per cent in Queensland. (Which is perhaps indicating that police are less inclined to proceed with charges in relation to non-violent crimes as often in NSW and the NT as they do in Queensland.)

    For those who are concerned that too many young people are being arrested and imprisoned for drug-related crime, I can give you the good news that only 4 per cent of cases in which the police proceed against young people involve “illicit drugs.”

    Continually arresting, charging and then releasing young criminals so that they can repeat their crimes all over again evokes the old aphorism: “the definition of insanity is repeating the same action over and over again and expecting different results.”

    My preferred solution to the problem is to invest in more prison capacity and then use it to accommodate more of the persistent, unrepentant violent criminals for longer periods. Not for punishment or even deterrance, but as a service to the community by protecting it from their violent acts. And I would also invest a lot more money in rehabilitation programs, although I’m sceptical that these have much of a beneficial effect other than at the margins.

    I realise my views are abhorrent to many people, but I do note that the fashion in policy seems to be heading my way in relation to perpetrators of serious acts of domestic violence. And perhaps it will eventually broaden out to encompass all violent criminals. The biggest impediment is the cost: governments being extremely reluctant to invest in the facilities required to accommodate more criminals.

    I apologies for having these views, but I just can’t see the evidence for other approaches. The main alternative to my proposed strategy is simply to keep putting up with an inadequate system.

  6. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 6:56 pm
    ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 6:50 pm

    Nothing to do with local politics, but while doing research for an article I am writing, I found that May, B., astronomer, undertook the stacking and analysis of images taken by the Hayabusa 2 spacecraft in 2018, when approaching the Ryugu asteroid, some time before the collision between said space craft and said asteroid.’
    ================
    Thus joining the legendary Doctors Blood and Slaughter and not forgetting the legendary Lee Bum Suk.
    _____________
    I thought it was a bit suspicious that they didn’t name the Doctor who supplied 90 scripts a day for medicinal cannabis, was there any truth to the rumour that it was Dr Bong?

  7. meher baba

    Without subscribing to your carceral agenda, I will say that I’m far more inclined to see crimes against persons dealt with more severely than crimes against property, and that too much of mandatory sentencing regimes in this country are directed at the latter. The consequences can result in early exposure to violent offending that may be avoided if diversionary programs – again, for (sometimes very petty) property crimes – were a permissible sentencing option.

  8. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 6:49 pm

    I’m assuming that you are being tongue in cheek.

    Singapore are one of our closest allies. They have permanent military training facilities here and a large amount of armoured vehicles.

    A lot of them are ethnically Chinese but have zero allegiance to China.

  9. meher babasays:

    Continually arresting, charging and then releasing young criminals so that they can repeat their crimes all over again evokes the old aphorism: “the definition of insanity is repeating the same action over and over again and expecting different results.”
    ____________________
    I was a teenage criminal. I used to love to steal. Even stole a car once, but mainly out of shops. I would steal books, tube socks, razor blades, tennis racquets, clothes. Never once got caught and retired at about age 17. It gave me an incredible high and I had a real knack for it.

    Even now, I occasionally get a tingling feeling when I’m in a store, and my hand can sometimes be seen gently caressing an object while I think of the best way of purloining it. But I resist.

  10. ‘Rewi says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 7:19 pm

    There is some irony involved in pseudonymous commenters on a blog arguing that other forms of speech (protest, published opinion writing) won’t achieve anything or isn’t helping.’
    —————–
    haha

  11. Re Diogenes @5:10 PM.

    ”Was it the lucky country narrative that made us complacent and dumb?”

    And the “resource curse”?

  12. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 5:17 pm

    Most of it will be gone in a generation and then it will be on for young and old as Australians discover what mass poverty really looks like.

    Citation required – or some actual numbers to back up your scaremongering.

  13. Saw Senator Price doing her usual ‘look at me’ stuff. I dont see how her approach to advocacy is helping the first nations people of this country. If anything, it puts some people off supporting this mob in our community.

  14. dave: “I was a teenage criminal. I used to love to steal. Even stole a car once, but mainly out of shops. I would steal books, tube socks, razor blades, tennis racquets, clothes. Never once got caught and retired at about age 17. It gave me an incredible high and I had a real knack for it.
    Even now, I occasionally get a tingling feeling when I’m in a store, and my hand can sometimes be seen gently caressing an object while I think of the best way of purloining it. But I resist.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Yes, crime can be fun. As I have posted in the past, I too went through a bit of a juvenile delinquent period: belonging to a low key sort of a gang that would engage in various forms of lawbreaking, including car theft on occasions. I too never got caught, but several of my friends did and the group eventually drifted apart.

    The thrills came from the transgressive nature of the activity and the ever-present risk of getting caught . But I think that, in order to make a lifelong career out of crime, one needs to have a strong dose of oppositional disorder: the belief that “society” is largely to blame for your being the way you are. Most of those who aren’t built this way eventually wake up to the fact that the effort/reward ratio for crime is probably worse even than a job at Maccas. And the risk/reward ratio even more so: probably worse than actually consuming some of Maccas’ products.

  15. Steve777: “Well I never knew that PB was a hotbed of (reformed) criminals…”
    ———————————————————————————
    As I look back on my life, I think it’s fair to say that I have been a bit of a follower of the philosophical dictum (usually attributed to the English classical conductor Sir Thomas Beecham) that one should try everything once in life, except for incest and folk dancing.

  16. Thanks meher

    I do have a lot of sympathy for diversionary programs for young offenders, but in this case if you had seen the posts from this kid on social media boasting about putting whole areas in lockdown (a huge exaggeration), taunting my family, and other crimes he has apparently also committed, it’s clear these kids and the larger gang give zero fucks about other people.

    How can you even rehabilitate such a complete lack of empathy? To see someone possibly the side of the road late at night and immediately think let’s put a knife to his throat and steal his car….. Let’s just say I’ll be extremely disappointed if been there is correct and there is no custodial sentence

    However it’s also clear to me through my dealings with the constables and detectives that there is a huge resourcing problem, as there is in health, education and so many other areas. We have hollowed out society through neoliberal small government and are now reaping what we’ve sown

    The response if our local member to try and frame it as a justice system problem that can be fixed with a bit of legislation and some more powers to the police (and it’s ALWAYS more powers, never less) is cynical in the extreme, especially since as a member of the nats he is so responsible for hollowing out the state in the first place

  17. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 6:36 pm
    BW
    Do you mean that all Singaporeans can now claim asylum?
    Goodness, it is much worse than I thought.

    … only if you’ve been put through Cambridge, been Army Officer retiring with the rank of Brogadier and then sitting on the boards of a number of companies – hell on earth being put through all that.

  18. Exclusive
    Abortion
    Jacinta Nampijinpa Price wants abortion on the national agenda
    Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price
    Debate on abortion has been turbocharged by conservative pushes to change the law in Queensland and South Australia

    And just like a turd that won’t flush and someone looking for a headline
    We have the above.

  19. meher babasays:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 8:17 pm
    Steve777: “Well I never knew that PB was a hotbed of (reformed) criminals…”
    ———————————————————————————
    As I look back on my life, I think it’s fair to say that I have been a bit of a follower of the philosophical dictum (usually attributed to the English classical conductor Sir Thomas Beecham) that one should try everything once in life, except for incest and folk dancing.
    _____________
    I see I’m not the only murderer on here then. 🙂

  20. PageBoi: “The response if our local member to try and frame it as a justice system problem that can be fixed with a bit of legislation and some more powers to the police (and it’s ALWAYS more powers, never less) is cynical in the extreme, especially since as a member of the nats he is so responsible for hollowing out the state in the first place”
    ——————————————————————————–
    Yep. The key component of my hardline approach would be a huge boost in investment in the correctional system. That’s what governments shy away from. IMO it’s not so much an issue of neoliberalism (which is not a term that I would use), but a fear that any expenditure on improving prisons will result in an attack by the tabloid media. My theory as to how this barrier might be gotten around is by both expanding and significantly improving the prison system at the same time.

    Certainly, if we want to have any sort of shot at rehabilitating people, we don’t want prisons to be hellholes. That’s the weird thing about the current system: there is a reluctance to incarcerate all but the most egregious criminals for long periods of time, but also a reluctance to invest in seriously trying to reform the ones who are in prison for only brief spells. It’s a bit of a case of out of sight, out of mind.

    BTW, what became of your son’s car?

  21. I walked out of a Chinese restaurant once without paying. I was drunk. The police knocked on the door a couple of days later. I just had to go back in and pay.

  22. Mrmoney says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 8:25 pm
    Exclusive
    Abortion
    Jacinta Nampijinpa Price wants abortion on the national agenda
    Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price
    Debate on abortion has been turbocharged by conservative pushes to change the law in Queensland and South Australia

    And just like a turd that won’t flush and someone looking for a headline
    We have the above.

    _________

    Is there any surprise that Price comes to the fore a day after Thorpe?

  23. Mrmoneysays:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 8:25 pm
    Exclusive
    Abortion
    Jacinta Nampijinpa Price wants abortion on the national agenda
    Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price
    Debate on abortion has been turbocharged by conservative pushes to change the law in Queensland and South Australia

    And just like a turd that won’t flush and someone looking for a headline
    We have the above.


    Yep. And we wont see the back of her until 2028 because she has another 3-4 years in her pocket. Yay, not

  24. Fubar @ 7:38
    I think it was those sage philosophers of the 60s the Fugs who said:

    The only gook an American can trust
    Is a gook that’s got his yellow head bust

    If you don’t like the people
    Or the way that they talk
    If you don’t like their manners
    Or they way that they walk
    Kill, kill, kill for peace
    Kill, kill, kill for peace

  25. Is there any surprise that Price comes to the fore a day after Thorpe?

    Yep, spot on.

    Price has been shoved inside a cupboard for the last 12 months, having served her purpose for the Liberals to defeat the Voice.

    If Thorpe hadn’t gone off like a crazy deranged person we likely wouldn’t have heard from Price.

    But never mind, she’ll be shoved back in the cupboard soon.

  26. More power to Senator Price’s burning need for attention and relevance, whether or not it was triggered by Senator Thorpe making the papers again.

    Let the nation see the true colours of the wingnuts that we political tragics already know about but which they have usually tried to keep under wraps from Joe Public the last decade since Abbott.

  27. OC: Ah, the Fugs. I haven’t thought about them for many a long day.

    This was another memorable song of theirs: an unlikely romance between a Kansas truckie and a hippie from the Lower East Side of NY.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41TZGgcBPrU

    “He talked to her in hieroglyphic Hittite.” They just don’t write love songs with those sorts of lyrics no more.

  28. Also from Kill For Peace and relevant to PB debates

    If you don’t kill them, then the Chinese will
    If you don’t want America to play second fiddle
    Kill, kill, kill for peace

  29. Car was found burnt out in a rural area unfortunately….. Fully insured at least and now that a suspect has been charged there should be no excess or loss of no claim bonus etc

  30. PageBoi: it’s good that you’ll get the insurance money. But I’m sure it’s most upsetting for your son to have his first car destroyed in such a way.

    Dreadful business.

  31. And to think that people were saying that Jacinta Nampijinpa Price was leadership material?

    Throwing this sort of thing out there is likely to bring back the imagine of the LNP as being too far right for the mainstream of Australia and out of touch. Dutton will probably try to squeeze the Genie back into the bottle quick smart. But with the recent discussion in Queensland and SA, there seems to a solid push by the hard Right of the LNP to bring the issue back into the game.

    Why had the LNP been doing better for the last 12 months? In part it was they were seen as being more in touch, not dealing with “niche issues” like the Voice. But bringing up abortion is like a flashing red light.

    Price has enough profile that the media will care, if had been one of the other hardlines it would not create headlines.

  32. Actually it’s his second car, he wrote his first one off about 3 months ago hitting a roo late at night, plus our foster kid also wrote his first car off in an accident, so it’s been a terrible run for us with teenagers and cars……

    We were worried he might get a bit of a complex about driving but so far so good

  33. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 8:30 pm
    I walked out of a Chinese restaurant once without paying. I was drunk. The police knocked on the door a couple of days later. I just had to go back in and pay.

    _________

    Was the meal succulent? 🙂

  34. I don’t think that the “Liberals” can be too far Right for the voters they’re targeting. They are hoping that they can appeal to their traditional voters via their wallets while gaining new ones (with the help of media allies) using the Trump playbook.

  35. Steve777 – Can’t win office unless you get 50% of the vote. On Abortion less than half the country is with them.
    It is basically ensuring that the “teal” voters don’t come home. Heck it could even see more “teal” types to be elected.
    Trump play book doesn’t work in Australia as we have compulsory voting.

  36. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 9:08 pm
    I don’t think that the “Liberals” can be too far Right for the voters they’re targeting. They are hoping that they can appeal to their traditional voters via their wallets while gaining new ones (with the help of media allies) using the Trump playbook.

    ________

    Agreed. They began the play during lead up to the last election. Dutton is carrying the torch.

  37. dave @ #544 Tuesday, October 22nd, 2024 – 6:43 pm

    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 6:34 pm
    And what about the car industry?
    Why have we lost the opportunity for multi-nationals to grab another $1B from the federal government with the promise that they won’t close down within the next 18 months?
    ___________________
    Everyone knows we needed to pay out billions to car makers so that we could one day make tanks in case of invasion, or if we wanted to recreate the Battle of Kursk for shits and giggles.

    We decided to invest hundreds of billions in imaginary nuclear submarines instead. Better value, apparently.

  38. After winning the Gold Walkley for the PwC tax leak scandal, the AFR’s Neil Chenoweth has produced another scorching tax story – one calling into question double standards in the treatment of tax fraud along with exposing the greed and venality of the extremely rich. Michael Pascoe reports.
    ATO mates rates
    There are serious questions to be asked about that deal – the ATO’s apparent mates rates for some blatant tax evaders – and about exactly what the MinRes board knew and when about their CEO’s character as displayed by evading his responsibility to pay his fair share of tax the way many millions of other Australians do.
    The board’s immediate reaction when the scandal hit the fan in the AFR Weekend was to state that directors had “full confidence in Mr Ellison and his leadership of the MinRes executive team”. The chairman denied that Ellison’s actions were improper. However, by Monday, the board had engaged an external law firm to investigate the matter.
    Making life more interesting for the board is Chenoweth’s further report that “in June 2022, the current MinRes board was alerted to Mr Ellison’s and Mr Wade’s involvement in the transfer pricing scheme through an anonymous whistleblower complaint that was forwarded to the new chairman, Mr McClements and to non-executive directors.”
    As for the ATO – oh dear. As Neil Chenoweth’s original story put it: “Fearing the scheme was about to catch up with him, he (Ellison) asked his lawyers to cut a deal with the ATO. He offered to share his secrets with the ATO, pay back any tax owing plus a multimillion dollar fine to avoid serious penalties.
    “The deal he proposed to the ATO contained an important condition: the tax office would never reveal its existence or its investigation to anyone including the Australian Federal Police or the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.”
    In a statement on Monday, Ellison said: “All outstanding tax, penalties and interest that should otherwise have been paid by me has been fully repaid, and the matter has been settled with the ATO.”
    https://michaelwest.com.au/chris-ellison-ato-mates-rates-for-tax-evasion-scheme/

  39. BW
    That video you mention @ 9:12 comes from China Observer which has hundreds if not thousands of anti CCP videos.

    A 20 second internet search shows that China Observer is part of Vision Times a front for the Falun Gong

  40. Re B.S. Fairman @9:14.

    ” Steve777 – Can’t win office unless you get 50% of the vote. On Abortion less than half the country is with them.
    It is basically ensuring that the “teal” voters don’t come home. Heck it could even see more “teal” types to be elected.”

    The Coalition are building a coalition of voters from different strands of appeals – the religious, the greedy, the scared and the haters. While those groups have lots of overlaps, they’re hoping that the four circles on the Ven diagram add up to over 50%.

    – So for the greedy and Teal voters, big tax cuts and middle class welfare, supplemented by lies and scare campaigns about any Labor policies that might (or could be misrepresented to) disadvantage people like them. No one in the mainstream media will raise concerns about how these will be paid for. And while lots want action on climate change, no one wants to pay for it.
    – Abortion restrictions for the religious. These will only affect the poor. The affluent will continue to be able to arrange safe abortions for a price they can afford, say a short overseas trip or a discreet procedure by a professional.
    – beat-ups about crime, asylum seekers, borders, terrorists, etc etc for the scared. If bellicose bluster would solve any of these problems, Dutton is your go to guy.
    – For the haters, the dogwhistle.

  41. Abortion
    Jacinta Nampijinpa Price wants abortion on the national agenda
    Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price
    Debate on abortion has been turbocharged by conservative pushes to change the law in Queensland and South Australia

    Interesting to see how David Littleproud handles this.
    Price’s term ends on June 30, helpful she breaks the bad news 4 days out from the Qld election?
    Write the LNP off, imo, they’re not winning on Saturday now.
    Not in Price’s portfolio area, she’s making policy on the run.
    I’d say they should cut their losses and let her go..

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