US presidential election minus three weeks

“If you squint at the polling averages, things are getting closer”, notes Nate Silver. But you probably shouldn’t.

There’s been a fair bit of chatter around lately about momentum in favour of Donald Trump, but by any reasonable metric the situation remains as it’s been since the dust settled a few weeks after Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Namely, poll aggregates have Kamala Harris up by three points nationally, which translates into an effective dead heat from election forecasts. A narrowing in Nate Silver’s probability forecast from around 56-44 to 50-50 has no doubt been influential, but the fundamental calculus is unchanged: the polls will very likely prove to have been out in one direction or another, and whoever they are underselling will take home the prize. For what it’s worth, The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models have ticked back a little to Harris over the past few days after narrowing to almost dead level a week ago, respectively putting her at 54% and 56%.

Considerably more depth on all this is available from Adrian Beaumont’s latest for The Conversation. The monthly Resolve Strategic polls for Nine Newspapers have been asking their Australian respondents who they would vote for if they could or would, consistently finding the fifty-first state to be deep blue: the latest has Kamala Harris at 52%, up two on last month, with Donald Trump down four to 21%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,152 comments on “US presidential election minus three weeks”

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  2. @sprocket_

    The discrepancy between senate and presidential poll results in states, with many Democrat senate candidates polling +8 or more vs the presidential race, could be at least partly explained by pollsters failing to properly account for the senate votes of the “F*** YOU I’m voting Trump” *click* type respondent that was mentioned earlier as someone they were trying to capture in their surveys.

    Obviously those respondents didn’t answer the senate question on the poll but you’d expect them to still vote R in the senate – If they turn up.

  3. Or, those people actually like their home state D Senate candidate more than they like Kamala Harris. Plus, may be members of the, I like Donald Trump because he’s a businessman and will be better for the economy crowd. As misguided as that may be. But, it’s a thing.

  5. ’”Did Donald Trump lose the election? Not by the words that I would use,” Vance said in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.’

    He came second…

  8. I maintain the dems win presidency, house and senate.

    The main issue after election will be the red states playing games with certification etc.

  9. Whilst Trump plays the clown prince, and is mentally deteriorating, the republicans are preparing the ground to not certify the election results.

    The red states will cause a constitutional crisis and they want the Supreme Court to rule in their favour.

    They will fail.

  10. And I’ve worked for oil and gas and mining companies. So you can’t trust my posts on climate change and the soft AF ALP EPA legislation.

    His model was set up long ago and is paid for by his subs – not Theil. Are people suggesting he fiddles the models levers, lies when he says the whole point of a model like his is to set and forget and never be tempted to adjust it mid stream, just to influence betting markets to increase a companies profits (or something) and get paid for doing that?

    His analysis is up for criticism and accusations of potential bias. His models assumptions are worthy of being questioned at times. I think youse all are stretching it on the rest of it. His model is his IP. It’s his rep. He can’t afford to f around with that for some part time gig with a betting agency.

  11. The shy Trump voter in 2016 and 2020 – have the pollsters adjusted?


    Pollsters believe they have largely identified what caused the polling misses in 2016. A major culprit was the failure to account for voters’ education levels, according to a report from a professional organization of public pollsters. State level polls in particular that year overrepresented college-educated respondents and undercounted respondents without a college degree.

    This was less of a problem in past elections, when vote choice did not cleave so sharply along educational lines. But in 2016 and thereafter, non-college-educated voters have largely supported Republicans, especially Mr. Trump.

    By 2020, nearly all pollsters had begun accounting for education. But polls still underestimated Mr. Trump. This time, the cause of the error was less clear-cut. One theory, presented by a report evaluating 2020 polls, is that Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys. As a result, “even if you control for white non-college male, the ones that answer the survey are more Democratic than the ones who don’t,” said Chris Jackson, who heads U.S. public opinion research for Ipsos. Others have posited that Biden voters were more likely to stay at home during the pandemic, giving them more time and opportunity to respond to polls.

    Yet another challenge that year: the record turnout. About a quarter of voters in 2020 had not voted in 2016, according to estimates by the Pew Research Center. And polling had indicated that any new 2020 voters would mostly be Biden supporters. In fact, they were divided between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, according to the Pew study.

    So, what about this year? Polling in seven swing states is extremely close — in most of these states, Mr. Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially tied. While the polls in these states underestimated Mr. Trump’s support in the last two cycles, historically, they have a mixed track record, with misses on both the left and right, and some years better than others.

    Most pollsters have made some changes to their methodology, partly in response to the 2020 misses, and the accurate 2022 midterm polls gave pollsters some optimism.

    But one key difference between the midterms and the last two presidential elections is that Mr. Trump was not on the ballot. Ultimately, there may be something about Mr. Trump’s supporters that makes them especially difficult to measure in polls.

    “There’s a real possibility that having Trump on the ballot makes it hard to poll for whatever reason,” said Berwood Yost, the director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvania.

    “But the other possibility is that we’ve made all these adjustments to correct the error. And perhaps we’ve overcorrected,” he added. “I don’t know which it is.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/17/us/politics/national-polls-election-results.html

  13. Elon Musk gaslighting for Trump…


    Billionaire Elon Musk said at a town hall in Pennsylvania where he is campaigning for Donald Trump on Thursday that the presidential election will not only decide “the fate of America” but also “the fate of Western civilization.”

    It’s not the first time Musk, a Trump supporter, has spoken about the election in dire terms. At a Trump rally this month, Musk said Trump “must win to preserve democracy in America.”

    Recent campaign finance filings revealed that Musk gave nearly $75 million to America PAC, which he created to campaign for Trump. The super PAC has emerged as a significant player in Trump’s reelection bid.

  16. No I am not trying to convince people like meherbaba, Centre or BTsays. They have their opinion and we know it won’t change
    This is not about above. It is some analysis of Harris interview on FOX.

    8 reasons Harris’ Fox News interview was a great idea

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/17/2277343/-8-reasons-Harris-Fox-News-interview-was-a-great-idea?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_9&pm_medium=web

    So what did Harris accomplish? (For details of points below read the article)

    1. It blows a Trump narrative out of the water.
    2. It reminded people of Harris’ toughness.
    3. It gives permission to squishy conservatives to consider Harris, or at least sit the top of the ticket out.
    4. It shuts up the media blowhards about Harris and media interviews.
    5. Has Trump lost his mind yet?
    6. Harris proved she can remain on message in the most hostile environment.
    7. She reminded us why we’re fighting for her.
    8. It reminded everyone that Trump is a coward.

  18. ‘Whiny little b-tch!’: Watch famous action star shred Donald Trump

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/17/2277466/-Actor-and-former-wrestler-Dave-Bautista-rips-Trump-s-tough-guy-BS?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web

    “Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel’s opening monologue on Wednesday was filled with jokes about how incongruous it is that many young heterosexual men support Donald Trump. Kimmel enlisted “one of the toughest guys I know,” in messaging directly to those young men: actor and former WWE wrestler Dave Bautista.

    The video shows the exceptionally fit Bautista training in a gym. “A lot of men seem to think that Donald Trump is some kind of tough guy. He’s not. I mean, look at him,” Bautista says in the video, before roasting every aspect of Trump:

    “He wears more makeup than Dolly Parton.”

    “He whines like a baby.”

    “The guy’s afraid of birds.”

    “Donald Trump had his daddy pay a doctor to say his widdle feet hurt so he could dodge the draft.”

    “He sells imaginary baseball cards, pretending to be a cowboy fireman.”
    “

  19. Trump Abruptly Cancels Two Big Speeches in Sign of How Bad He’s Doing – The New Republic.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/17/2277505/-Trump-Abruptly-Cancels-Two-Big-Speeches-in-Sign-of-How-Bad-He-s-Doing-The-New-Republic?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    https://newrepublic.com/post/187262/donald-trump-cancels-appearances-sign-struggling

    Donald Trump has pulled out of two major interviews Thursday, after the Republican presidential nominee made several appearances this week that went disastrously awry.

    Trump had been scheduled to do an interview with NBC News’s senior business correspondent Christine Romans that would air Monday, but the plans for a face-to-face were apparently shelved. CNN’s Brian Stelter reported Thursday that one source suggested the interview had only been “postponed.”

    The former president also canceled his speech to an NRA convention on Tuesday in Savannah, Georgia. Convention organizers said Trump had a “scheduling conflict.”

    These two changes come just days after Trump canceled plans to appear on CNBC’s Squawk Box, which the economic show’s co-anchor Joe Kernan reported Tuesday. While Trump’s campaign claimed he would be unable to attend the Friday interview due to scheduling conflicts that would bring him to Michigan, he is actually scheduled to appear live on Fox & Friends, which is only a few blocks away form the CNBC studio, according to The Daily Beast.

  21. Long line for Early Voting in Carrboro, NC

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/17/2277448/-Long-line-for-Early-Voting-in-Carrboro-NC

    Just a quick happy note to say that in the 24 years I have lived here, I have never seen an early voting line as long as I did this morning at 10:30 am. If you don’t know Carrboro, NC we are adjacent to Chapel Hill and 90% Harris voters.

    Votes Percentage
    Biden 7,490 87.8%
    Trump 924 10.8%
    Jorgensen 48 0.6%
    Hawkins 37 0.4%
    Write In 25 0.3%
    Blankenship 8 0.1%
    Total 8,532 100.0%
    Above are the results from the Town of Carrboro in 2020.

  22. Omar Comin’ @ #153 Friday, October 18th, 2024 – 5:17 am

    The discrepancy between senate and presidential poll results in states, with many Democrat senate candidates polling +8 or more vs the presidential race, could be at least partly explained by pollsters failing to properly account for the senate votes of the “F*** YOU I’m voting Trump” *click* type respondent that was mentioned earlier as someone they were trying to capture in their surveys.

    Obviously those respondents didn’t answer the senate question on the poll but you’d expect them to still vote R in the senate – If they turn up.

    That doesn’t explain it though, because the pollster would either omit that person from the poll, or else make the same assumption you’ve made and count them as Republican down ballot. Wouldn’t they?

    Also NBC has fixed mitigated their map bug. It no longer crashes. Doesn’t do anything else, either. You can still get per-state details using the list of states at the bottom of the page.

  24. Day one of early voting in North Carolina – very long lines at polling booths/voting centres.
    I feel more confident about Kamala Harris winning that state than I do about her winning Georgia or Arizona, mainly because of the Josh Stein effect.

  25. Billionaire Elon Musk said at a town hall in Pennsylvania where he is campaigning for Donald Trump on Thursday that the presidential election will not only decide “the fate of America” but also “the fate of Western civilization.”

    Fate of America and Western Civilisation, great if Kamala Harris wins and disastrous if Donald Trump wins. 😐

  26. Democracy Sausage @ #175 Friday, October 18th, 2024 – 11:00 am

    Day one of early voting in North Carolina – very long lines at polling booths/voting centres.
    I feel more confident about Kamala Harris winning that state than I do about her winning Georgia or Arizona, mainly because of the Josh Stein effect.

    Not so sure about Arizona. There’s a decidely positive Reuben Gallego/negative Kari Lake effect in Arizona and Georgia has been receiving the Harriz/Walz love, so at least a toss up in both states.

  27. ‘In the weeks leading up to the 2020 election, CISA ( the Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency) had published a new and effective rumor-control page on its website to bat down election-security conspiracy theories and provide authoritative facts about election system mechanics and security. CISA’s updated site is on standby to correct false information that may circulate about the 2024 election.’
    (The Bulwark)

  28. Trump’s angry mob is going to stop and check some website on their phones, and then peacefully disperse when it says Trump’s lying as usual?

  29. Stooge I don’t even know how having a critical discussion of the Democratic Party is even close to resembling supporting MAGA. I personally think they can go in the bin and I am hoping to god that Harris mops the floor with them. I just also think they could have done things better, and the problems that caused MAGA to become so popular are not going to be resolved by the current democratic platform. The Democrats will be better for America but they also won’t fix America. The Republicans hate America, they always have, they always will, and they will always work against its best interests. I know which one I would be voting for.

    Also do we think that Russia wants Israel and Iran to go to war? I personally perceived Putin’s posturing on Palestine was attempting to leverage his influence with the 44% of Jewish people of Russian descent in Israel to prevent escalation which would use up valuable resources and put strains on the already tenuous alliances between Russia, Iran and Syria. I think the fact that Iran has only retaliated after the bombing of embassies and assassinations on sovereign territory speaks to the fact that they are only responding when absolutely forced to, but otherwise steering clear. You could point to Hezbollah, but also they are not entirely a wing of Iran, they do operate somewhat independently too as we have seen with their participation in the Lebanese government.

    Anyway those are just my thoughts! curious to hear otherwise

  30. Centre – Why on earth do you front up here and say there is no gender bias in election betting when Polymarket punters are 73% male? Are you wilfully ignorant or is it just your feeble attempt to ‘flood the zone with shit’ a la Steve (Jailbird) Bannon.

  31. Bautista getting a lot of media play.

    This is electioneering, US style in the age of Trump.

    Hopefully a few more step up to keep the momentum going. They are out there, doing it quietly. But Bautista has shown what you have to do to give it oxygen.

  32. ‘Batsh-t crazy’: Tim Walz and Bill Clinton team up to trash Trump(watch videos of Walz and Clinton)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/17/2277536/-Batsh-t-crazy-Tim-Walz-and-Bill-Clinton-team-up-to-trash-Trump?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    “Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz and former President Bill Clinton campaigned in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, on Thursday, where they teamed up to shine a spotlight on Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s increasingly desperate and erratic behavior.

    “Trump’s plan to seize unprecedented power for himself isn’t hypothetical. It’s written down in Project 2025,” Walz told the crowd. ”

    ““He followed up that to make sure that we understood just how batshit crazy he was,” Walz told the rally audience. “He said, ‘the gates of hell.’ The gates of hell,” Walz repeated. “Mike Flynn said this. ‘My hell will be unleashed.’ This is the guy that Donald Trump wants to hand the keys to the federal government over to mind security.”

    Walz then introduced Clinton, who poked fun at Trump’s age and his unstable behavior during what was supposed to be a “town hall” event in Oaks, Pennsylvania, on Monday night.”

    “”I don’t have any more elections I’ll be involved with, and I’m too old to gild the lily,” Clinton remarked. “Heck, I’m only two years younger than Donald Trump,” he joked. “Good news for you is I will not spend 30 minutes swaying back and forth for you. And I’ve played enough music that I will not clap off beat, nor will I pretend to be a conductor.”

    “I’ve been doing this a long, long time,” Clinton continued. “And I can honestly say that this time I am not here running for anything anymore except for my grandchildren’s future.””

  33. In the Trump Latino community Town hall, Trump replying about Jan6 insurrection said

    “We didn’t have guns. The others had guns, but we didn’t have guns. And when I say we, these are people that walked down — this was a tiny percentage of the overall, which nobody sees and nobody, nobody shows.”

    “A day of love”
    https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna175942?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17292176073479&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2Fdonald-trump%2Ftrump-called-jan-6-henious-attack-now-calls-day-love-rcna175942

  35. ”
    a rsays:
    Friday, October 18, 2024 at 1:15 pm
    A day of love with injuries and fatalities. How he never gets called out on this shit, I’ll never know.
    ”

    ar
    Trump by saying “We didn’t have guns. The others had guns” has identified himself with insurrectionists.

  36. I just watched ABC America’s nightly news bulletin – you can stream it on SBS On Demand.
    A very anti Trump report tonight, they definitely highlighted Trump’s comment that January 6 was apparently a day of love, pretty positive coverage for Kamala Harris.
    You can be sure the likes of Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel will eviscerate Trump later too.

  37. As posted earlier Trump ‘cancelled’ his speech to an NRA(National Rifle Association) convention on Tuesday in Savannah, Georgia,

    Although the new NRA Chief did not eat any cats, he pleaded no contest in a court of torturing and killing a cat

    NRA chief involved in gruesome cat killing as college fraternity member

    Doug Hamlin pleaded no contest to animal cruelty over 1979 incident in which fraternity cat was tortured and killed

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/14/nra-doug-hamlin-cat-killing

  38. Why sugarcoat it for him? A “no contest” plea is equivalent to a “guilty” plea, for all purposes aside from any civil suits that might arise over the cat. He just plain tortured and killed a cat.

  39. As Victoria and others said we are witnessing Trump ‘mental disintegration’. Either that or he has Baldrick’s cunning plan up his sleeve or he totally started believing his lies.

    Lately, Whenever he is attending a public event there will be at least a couple of bizarre/weird happenings or words coming out of his mouth.

  41. Ven

    Womens health rights are the main game. The will vote in Harris.
    The dems will get over the line in house and senate.

    Dem Senator Tester in Montana is struggling at present. He may lose.

    I see Gloria Jackson In Tennessee, Colin Allred in Texas and Debbie Murcasel in Florida all winning. But I do believe the republicans will dispute it and take it to the courts.

    That is what the rethugs are focussed on right now. Bullshit polls to reflect a different reality, so they can push the narrative that they won

  45. @Team Katich

    Let me step you through it slowly no conspiracy theories required.

    According to the Silver polling aggregate it’s Harris +2.6 according to the Silver table of advantages chart published on an earlier thread 50/50 is 2.9.

    So according to Silvers own models it should be about 54 – 46 Trump yet he is saying it 50- 50.Harris is 2.30 and Polymarkets own public analyst is saying she should be 2.00 pretty obvious who they want you to bet on..

    Nobody is going to remember what Silver predicted three weeks out he is not risking his reputation just tweaking things a bit for the benefit of his employer.

    Also I think that 2.9 is wrong I think it is more like 3.2 and so the punters judging by where the money is going but that is beside the point he is fiddling his own model to encourage people to bet on Harris.

  47. Trump is now too short, as I predicted in the last thread the smarties moved and got the overs and now the herd mentality kicks in as all the mug punters follow and take slop prices.

    No point betting for now as both candidates are under the odds no matter what data you are using to price it up with. Harris should be about 2.4.

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