The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
Oakeshott Country, on a funny but enlightening note, I was on one occasion in Beijing when there was a riot in the main mall. The Apple Store had run out of the new iPhones.
davesays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 9:18 pm
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poundbury
You’d make good god King fella.
And I believe you’re related to Chuck.
I’ve noted the shit here put on the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. But, nevertheless, we have Premier Peter Malinauskas and federal Trade and Tourism Minister Senator Don Farrell. And now Secretary of the SDA union, Josh Peak, has been elected as president of the Australian Labor Party in South Australia. The ‘shoppies’ aren’t going anywhere. They’re here to stay.
Are you a shoppie supporter Eddy?
That unions connection to the Labor party makes me sick to my heart!
Give me the CFMEU anyday!
America is f*cked.
UK experts warn against buying ‘XL bully cats’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/19/uk-experts-warn-against-buying-feline-equivalent-of-xl-bully-dog
So, ACT… Labor -3.3%, Lib -0.7%, Greens -1.1%
Community independents up.
No-one should be shocked.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/19/australia-labor-retain-power-in-act-election-but-lose-ground-to-liberals
Good to see that their monarch is having a day off (At Australian Taxpayer expense) due to the debilitating strain of the 8 hour flight from Singapore in his 1st class sleeper suite.
Should have stayed home and saved us the expense.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 7:23 am
The only shock was for the Liberals and Greens.
Labor lost some of their vote to the independents however neither the Liberals or Greens will find solace with their results.
Labor were on a high from the previous “COVID” election and expected a return to a reasonable results.
(And you are on the wrong thread in a number of manifestations )
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/19/australia-labor-retain-power-in-act-election-but-lose-ground-to-liberals
Boerwar @ 5.55pm
Keep posting your list of Alp Government achievements.
I for one enjoy having them as mental notes when having discussions with some tory leaning friends.
The Liberals have had a “little” shock in the by-election in Pittwater
Macca RBsays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 7:56 am
Boerwar @ 5.55pm
+1
World News & Politics:
‘Grave Mistake’: Netanyahu Says Hezbollah Tried To Kill Him In Drone Attack, Warns Iran Of Heavy Price: https://www.news18.com/world/iran-tried-to-eliminate-israeli-pm-netanyahu-report-9091803.html
Hamas’s military structure has been decimated to the point where it is no longer possible for the terror group in Gaza to carry out another October 7-style attack, US National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby told reporters during a virtual briefing on Friday: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-825163
The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity. The leak is “deeply concerning,” a US official told CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html
Netanyahu’s defiance of Biden-Harris Rafah invasion threats led to elimination of Sinwar, experts say: https://www.foxnews.com/world/netanyahus-defiance-biden-harris-rafah-invasion-threats-led-elimination-sinwar-experts-say
Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/19/trump-campaign-leaked-data-voters-elon-musk
Obama On Trump’s Recent Odd Behavior: ‘Can You Imagine If I Did That?: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/barack-obama-makes-fun-of-donald-trump_n_6712f431e4b0a8cd2c95a94b
US Intelligence Chairman urges immediate action on North Korean troop movements in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/us-intelligence-chairman-urges-immediate-action-on-north-korean-troop-movements-in-ukraine/
#weatheronPB
A soft roll of grey,
runs over itself, bunching,
to hide the shadows.
Thanks for the roundup Holden Hillbilly. I find it a staggering double standard that Netanyahu threatens Iran after he is targeted, when Israel has been systematically killing Hamas and Hezbollah leaders for several months. What do they expect?
On local politics, I can’t see any bad news for Labor out of last nights election results. I think the Pittwater result is really interesting, with a Teal translating Federal appeal in a former Liberal stronghold to a State seat win.
To me that suggests two trends, both great for Labor. First Teal popularity does not appear to have abated, which augurs well for Federal Teals next May. That would make it very hard for Dutton to regain majority government.
Second, if Teal popularity in Federal seats translates to State seats more generally, that suggests the interest is not only in Federal issues. If so, the Teal group could grow to disrupt Liberal chances of a majority at State level as well. The presence of State MPs will obviously help Federal campaigning and vice versa.
For Chrissake, Speers, just shut up and stop wasting everyone’s time with pathetic, failed gotcha questions!
BK
Speers did over do the GST/Neg gearing questions.
Watt did quite well. I doubt the line of questioning from Speers came as a surprise.
The news all next week will be that Dutton has a policy.
Speers did over do the GST/Neg gearing questions.
________
And he (eventually) realised it!
This desperately needed and no-brainer rezoning policy will see me vote 1 Vic Labor.
It would be wonderful if King Charles made a speech encouraging Australian’s to grow up, vote for independence and a republic.
I am not against Australia retaining the British Monarchy in principle.
It’s just that I think the Revolution of 1688 was fairly ordinary rather than Glorious. I strongly support the Stuart Restoration and look forward to pledging my allegiance, in the passage of time, to King Josef Wenzel I with Australia in a personal union with Liechtenstein.
(This is obviously a parody posting)
If you want to see the disgusting lows that right wingers will go to, check out the frednk post on the US thread.
And further to my 10.07am post, similar things are happening here. Religious zealots are worming their way into the Liberal Party but don’t have the guts to broadcast their true intentions. In the unlikely event that these people ever get to run the country, expect a mirror image of the southern US, abortion bans, book bans, and hypocracy at a high level.
Re Socrates @8:44 ”On local politics, I can’t see any bad news for Labor out of last nights election results. I think the Pittwater result is really interesting, with a Teal translating Federal appeal in a former Liberal stronghold to a State seat win.”
That’s interesting. While the Liberals are quite right-wing at the Federal level, the Liberals at State level in NSW have been far more moderate (the Greiner and Gladys Governments, for example). It looks as though Peter Dutton’s strident right-wing culture-warring and dog-whistling, now also his nuclear nonsense, continue to put voters off the Liberals in their former heartland, at State level as well as Federally.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 10:00 am
I am not against Australia retaining the British Monarchy in principle.
It’s just that I think the Revolution of 1688 was fairly ordinary rather than Glorious. I strongly support the Stuart Restoration and look forward to pledging my allegiance, in the passage of time, to King Josef Wenzel I with Australia in a personal union with Liechtenstein.
________________________________
I believe that the current Jacobite heir is Duke Franz of Bavaria.
I think that the Republic looks to be off the agenda for the foreseeable future. While I see no great enthusiasm for the Monarchy or for Charles and Camilla, any attempts to raise the Republic now would just be met by howls or “what about affordable housing?, what about the cost of living? etc etc”. It would become another battleground in the Culture Wars. The Republic of the “elites” (the “woke” ones, not the money elites).
Not that working towards a Republic would in any way detract from efforts to address important bread and butter issues, but that’s how it would be widely seen and that’s the story the Right and their media allies would push.
Murray Watt couldn’t give a straight answer on NG, the closest was they haven’t received any Treasury advice.
I’d say they’ll legislate before the election, then it’s Dutton’s problem, reasoning is he can’t win an Election on repealing it.
An article by Ben Raue on the Pittwater by-election result
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/20/losing-heartland-seat-to-teal-jacqui-scruby-marks-continuing-decline-nsw-liberal-party-northern-sydney
The Asset Economy – Gary’s Economics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSdhijZ7Uz4
dave @ #1775 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 10:47 am
Duke Franz is 87 – for much of his life he claimed to be celibate but about 5 years ago came out with his partner
His heir is his brother Duke Max who is 83 and has 4 daughters.
This is where is gets complex.
The House of Wittelsbach follows Salic Law and Max’s nephew Prince Luitpold is the heir to the Bavarian throne.
But the House of Stuart follows primogeniture and the heir to the British and Commonwealth throne is Max’s eldest daughter, Sophie the Hereditary Princess of Liechtenstein.
Her heir is Prince Josef Wenzel (usually called Wenzel) who is unmarried and may take after his great uncle Franz.
It is possible that Josef Wenzel will be the true king across the sea during my lifetime.
Wenzel was named after a number of Liechtenstein royalty including his uncle who was a junior medical officer and died at age 28 after “undertaking an experiment” with anaesthetic gasses.
Griff @ #1778 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 11:44 am
The fact that it wasn’t even close must really sting.
Cheers OC I should not have doubted you.
OC is your go to guy on obscure royal genealogy.
There it is.
Republic now !
We get from the media and the parties of No-no. bullshit over a house.
Here is an interesting story. Australia has cancelled an order for 28 F-35s. The video maker is slightly pissed of, but so be it, but concludes it probable makes sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IostTF7zKeQ
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Peter Brookes
Matt
Dave Brown
#RoguesGallery
The original Salvador Dali Cannibalism in Autum
Andy Davey
#inheritancetax
Graeme Bandiera
Peter Schrank
Chris Riddel
Banx
Martin Rowson #YaharSinwar
Tom Gauld @Guardianbooks
Mark Parisi
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
(Mostly white) people are upset about the Allan government relaxing zoning around public transport connections (including in Brighton):
https://x.com/KieranJRooney/status/1847809282936283399
Thomassays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 1:52 pm
(Mostly white) people are upset about the Allan government relaxing zoning around public transport connections (including in Brighton):
———————
No need for casual racism.
People have a right to be part of the planning process but the government also has to strike the right balance between urban development and heritage protection because its heritage that makes a place attractive and much could be learn from earlier planning.
I see that I have been sadly misrepresented by sundry people on the matter of whether China’s citizens could reasonably claim refugee status.
The argument against went to various points. The first was personal abuse (Grouper, Santa jibes). I will put them aside with the contempt they deserve.
The second argument against was that I am a sinophobe. I will put that aside with the contempt it deserves.
The third argument ran along the lines that someone had spent some time in China and everyone was happy enough to live in China. This someone had lived in the second wealthiest city in China where the average income is well above the national average. The construct was that the reason the citizens are happy enough to live in China is that they are getting rich and so are OK with trading off their human rights in order to get rich. I understand this concept but note that the validity of the concept cannot be tested because no-one can tell the truth. No-one has asked them, for example, if they would like to get rich, live in a democratic society, and have all their human rights. Instead of none of them. And if someone DID ask them they would lie because the answer could get them jailed or killed. And they very often have very little idea of what life is like in western societies because of all-pervasive censorship and propaganda.
Even if the construct holds for all chinese citizens, which it manifestly cannot do, the basis for this POV is eroded when serious numbers of people stop getting rich. And instead get poor. This is happening as we post. When last reported on a regular basis youth unemployment was over 20 per cent and rising. Then the reports suddenly stopped. Now some sort of reporting is happening but the numbers are Xi statistics – not worth a pinch of the proverbial.
Hundreds of thousands of Mum and Dad stores are closing.
Wages are falling.
Unemployment is rising.
Youth unemployment is north of 20%.
Tens of millions have negative equity in their units. ROI on some Boom investments covers less than the cost of capital. Millions of chinese are paying mortgages on units in moribund projects.
The $100 billion Yiong’an New Area ( a Xi pet project) is virtually deserted.
Consumers are pulling their heads in, big time. They are hoarding cash. They are paying down their mortgages.
New lending by the Big Banks has crashed.
The direction by the comrades to the banks to buy empty units from the essentially bankrupt construction companies is being defied.
Dongling Steel, No 23 in the top 500 companies, went bankrupt last week. 18,000 employees. Downstream financial implications are unknown.
Investment bankers are in the Comrades’ crosshairs. Several have recently been arrested. Senior figures in all sorts of big banks have been forced to resign.
Local governments carry monstrous debt burdens. Their biggest single source of revenue by far, land sales, are plummeting in value.
Houses are plummeting in value.
Mooncake sales have plummeted.
Foreign companies are leaving China in droves.
Foreign capital, ditto.
Domestic capital, ditto, if it can only find a way.
Stock market has tanked.
The birth rate is down to 1.
Ten year bonds are at record lows.
The get rich/stay unfree deal is broken. Whether this triggers a large scale exodus remains to be seen.
My view is that any chinese citizen who wants could rock up and claims asylum on the basis that he has no human rights and no democratic rights and that would be persecuted on their return has a perfectly reasonable claim to refugee status. The very act of claiming asylum does the trick.
D&M
The Orwell image is a cracker.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:06 pm
No need for casual racism.
—-
I respectfully disagree with that interpretation of my comment – I was simply providing a descriptor of the crowd.
One for Dr Doolittle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7JxN_w153w
Thomassays:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:28 pm
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 2:06 pm
No need for casual racism.
—-
I respectfully disagree with that interpretation of my comment – I was simply providing a descriptor of the crowd.
————
That’s okay but sounded like you were critcising the crowd.
Thomas
I don’t live in Brighton but my suburb is one of those identified. No consultation and it is thrown out in the middle of local government elections. The Allan and Andrews government don’t do public consultation – “Be good and go and drink you Kool Aid”. It is interesting that most of these are in seats the government doesn’t hold – including my own seat of Ringwood held by political eunuch Will Fowles. They are doing a great job at making Melbourne unliveable.
BW
I was only half joking when I suggested you take a 10 day tour of China. See if you feel it is a repressed society.
Taking your point on refugee status, this implies that anyone who does not live in the 50 or so democracies in the world will be given refugee status. No wonder the west is in trouble! The UNHCR definition is “ someone who has been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war or violence”. This certainly doesn’t apply to most of the 1.4 B who live in China.
Sinophobic warmongering hate spewing needs to be called out as American imperialist racist propaganda bullshit.
“ I was only half joking when I suggested you take a 10 day tour of China. See if you feel it is a repressed society.”
Oakeshott Country, my experience of China and its people comes from working with Chinese people for many years and having visited the country on four different occasions, travelling to five different cities.
They are not a repressed society.
The government continues to function because it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty, and the people appreciate it. I get tired of listening to paternalistic colonialist racists making stupid statements implying they would all flee to the west given half a chance.
A bit harsh Eddy, I take BW comments in the context of his personal experiences.
I was once tutoring a group of students on the history of Sino-Australian relations. The mention that Australia was in the grip of fears of a Chinese invasion in the 50s and 60s led to gales of laughter. “Did we not know what was happening internally in China at that time?”
That’s right Eddy.
It all starts from the Murdoch media…
A majority of Victorians have thankfully relegated Murdoch media propaganda to sick joke status, but sadly there are still vulnerable people – mostly boomers – under its poisonous spell.