The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
mj – “As I said it’s pointless engaging with you. I’ll save my breath for someone who’s interested in actual discussion.”
The insufferable bores whose major life ambition is posting listicles until they expire are really not worth engaging
Honestly sad that WB’s great effort to add something useful to #auspol has a comment section that appears so trapped in a fundamentally pointless and idiotic pissing match of ageing Labor and LNP hacks
At least there’s some comedic elements to seeing the ever less Labor vote despite, or perhaps because of, their years and years of tedious pointless listicles
It’s even less useful trying to engage the regular bores than posting on Twitter, which is a bar so low it’s deep in the mud
On the useless housing policy front
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfvwATGp-rU
‘Quoll says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 5:51 pm
mj – “As I said it’s pointless engaging with you. I’ll save my breath for someone who’s interested in actual discussion.”
The insufferable bores whose major life ambition is posting listicles until they expire are really not worth engaging
Honestly sad that WB’s great effort to add something useful to #auspol has a comment section that appears so trapped in a fundamentally pointless and idiotic pissing match of ageing Labor and LNP hacks
At least there’s some comedic elements to seeing the ever less Labor vote despite, or perhaps because of, their years and years of tedious pointless listicles
It’s even less useful trying to engage the regular bores than posting on Twitter, which is a bar so low it’s deep in the mud
On the useless housing policy front
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfvwATGp-rU‘
========================
Nothing like a bit of personal slagging to go with the anti-Labor slagging. The point remains. The Greens housing policy is incoherent and is impossible to implement in a way which is consistent with their environment policies.
Banquo911 says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 11:10 am
Good post
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 5:47 pm
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BW proves the point yet again. Disagreement is great, it’s the starting place for compromise.
Calling a mainstream party extreme, with basically a shared ideology and ruling out cooperating with them is obstructionist, and blocks progress.
Live commentary thread for the ACT election and NSW by-elections:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/19/act-election-and-nsw-by-elections-live/
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 5:15 pm
They increased the age of eligibility from 8-14yo, which was about $100 a week. BFD !
_____________________
Which is 400 a month to alleviate the poverty of many children. There was no guarantee they were going to do this so I’m reasonably happy with them doing it. Of course, they could be doing more. But it’s a signature issue for me and I am going to reward them for doing it.
“ No one cares what the Greens policies are. The fact is they take seats off Labor and give Laborites the shits. That’s good enough for many.”
dave, I actually do care about the Green’s progressive socialist policies. But as for taking seats off Labor and giving Laborites the shits, that’s good enough for me. Because that’s just how angry I am.
Banquo911 says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 5:56 pm
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 5:47 pm
____________
BW proves the point yet again. Disagreement is great, it’s the starting place for compromise.
Calling a mainstream party extreme, with basically a shared ideology and ruling out cooperating with them is obstructionist, and blocks progress.
____________
This is a point worth considering. How does one define a “mainstream party” in a participatory democracy? Based on the proportion of the vote? The potential to forming government? Being in a position to influence public policy e.g. balance of power?
‘Banquo911 says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 5:56 pm
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 5:47 pm
____________
BW proves the point yet again. Disagreement is great, it’s the starting place for compromise.
Calling a mainstream party extreme, with basically a shared ideology and ruling out cooperating with them is obstructionist, and blocks progress.’
==================
The Greens are 13 per centers out on the extreme left. Way out.
Their economic policies are destructive.
Does anyone but a Greens not understand what happens when capital leaves a country or refuses to come into a country? Have a look at Cuba.
Andrew_Earlwood,
Do you convince a lot of judges with supposition arguments?
How does one define a “mainstream party”
———–
Pretty subjective term really, hard to draw a line where a party becomes mainstream. Probably needs to have a fairly broad and reliable group of voters who support it, be large enough to have significant influence on policy either outside or within govt and not be seen as a political pariah.
Griff @ #1708 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 6:18 pm
Obviously, any party who can win a seat is a mainstream party.
But that probably does not go far enough: Any party whose preferences can determine who wins a seat is a mainstream party.
But that probably does not go far enough either: Any party who can influence government policy is a mainstream party.
Player One says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:05 pm
Griff @ #1708 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 6:18 pm
“How does one define a “mainstream party” in a participatory democracy?”
Obviously, any party who can win a seat is a mainstream party.
But that probably does not go far enough: Any party whose preferences can determine who wins a seat is a mainstream party.
But that probably does not go far enough either: Any party who can influence government policy is a mainstream party.
_________
That definition works for parties of one 🙂
You continue to make up crap. The “division of labour” proposal is not going happen. Full stop. It does not meet Australia or the UK’s strategic needs.
If it were to be, your assessment is inaccurate anyway. All that needs to happen in the scenario you see as a risk is for the US to redeploy them out of Hawaii – which would make operational sense. But, it’s not going to be an issue because the AUKUS project will be in place.
Just going back to the CRS paper – it failed to address the fact that the US Administration has already accepted the current situation of a shortfall in US fleet numbers – both for surface and sub-surface combatants. The AUKUS project is actually helping fund an increase in the production capacity of the US Submarine building capability. There was zero discussion of why the shortfall has been accepted to date but is suddenly unacceptable with the advent of the AUKUS Project, or why the increased production capability should be risked by cancelling their AUKUS commitment.
mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 6:48 pm
How does one define a “mainstream party”
———–
Pretty subjective term really, hard to draw a line where a party becomes mainstream. Probably needs to have a fairly broad and reliable group of voters who support it, be large enough to have significant influence on policy either outside or within govt and not be seen as a political pariah.
______
That is a very broad, reasonable, and imprecise definition. The last criterion is a bit of a kink. How does one define a political pariah?
“You continue to make up crap. The “division of labour” proposal is not going happen. Full stop. It does not meet Australia or the UK’s strategic needs.”
Which would lead us straight back to Kurt Campbell. Who is no mere commentator on such matters.
And, contrary to the rest of your post above, the US has NOT accepted a further degradation in submarine numbers over and above that which has been baked in until about 2035, regardless of how quickly US submarine building increases its output over the next decade. Which means the only way that a sitting president can certify the transfers of boats in 2032 and 2035 to Australia is if they are still counted as being part of the American order of battle. … again, a concept that Campbell and other Biden minions have been shopping around The Hill all of the last year. …
How does one define a political pariah?
——-
Think AfD in Germany or National Rally in France. Parties that have large enough support to be defined as major parties but are cast aside by most other parties as being too extreme to closely work with.
mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 8:00 pm
How does one define a political pariah?
——-
Think AfD in Germany or National Rally in France. Parties that have large enough support to be defined as major parties but are cast aside by most other parties as being too extreme to closely work with.
___________
What is a major party? You are at risk of circular logic here in defining a mainstream party.
That aside, is La France Insoumise included in your definition? And can you differentiate between these and One Nation or The Greens? By definition, most other parties do not work with the Greens, despite what Labor says 🙂
Why did this take so long to happen..
Middle East crisis live: drone launched at Netanyahu’s house, spokesperson says, as Israel bombards Gaza.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/oct/19/israel-gaza-war-yahya-sinwar-middle-east-lebanon-hamas-hezbollah
I almost became emotional upon Their Majesties’ arrival in Sydney, but managed to pull myself together. But my emotional state ebbed when Aunty didn’t lead in their Qld news with this
momentous event – a shocking sign of disrepect.
Very true Mavis – some of these ABC types really deserve a good horsewhipping to teach them proper.
Antony Green has now mentioned the reason Rory Amon resigned in Pittwater twice on the live coverage, so far:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-19/2024-act-election-follow-live/104477892
As a descendant of Edward III I was chuffed to see the arrival of my distant cousin The King.
Well dave, off you go and kiss his ring.
https://x.com/jackhigh4/status/1847144096974229589
Are there any mainstream parties that take Australia’s independence of 1986 seriously?
Some major parties are heading for less than a third of the PV. Perhaps a mainstream party is one that is part of a conservative Noalition/ progressive alliance to form gov.
Or a mainstream party is one that passes an electoral threshold of number of votes?
Has an MP in parliament?
Meanwhile, governance in terms of powershift rather than climate, inequality, health … has resulted in Australia being:
A target for Pine Gap.
A target for Port of Darwin NT.
A target for RAAF Tindal.
A target for $$Ns, WA’s Stirling plus …
A target for siding with colonising settlers, Denial to Euphrates River.
…
Edward II had descendants?
Re Griff @6:18. ” This is a point worth considering. How does one define a “mainstream party” in a participatory democracy? Based on the proportion of the vote? The potential to forming government? Being in a position to influence public policy e.g. balance of power?”
It’s one of those things that is hard to define but you know it when you see it.
So Labor, Liberal, National, State- and Territory-based mergers of Liberal and National plus the Greens. Between them they account for about 80% of the vote.
Anyone else? One Nation? They win seats in the Senate and get up to 8% of the vote, but they’re not quite respectable and way too flakey. The Liberals and Nationals have pinched much of their natural turf and forced them further to the fringes and flakiness. The Palmists? Not a real party, just a right-wing billionaire’s preference-harvesting operation. What about the Lambists? They got up to 9% of the vote in Tasmania, so locally mainstream? While I wouldn’t class them as ratbags, they have a turbulent history. Not quite mainstream. You’ve got various fringe groups on the right and left, even centre, plus single issue groups. They get maybe 1% of the vote, normally less. Definitely not mainstream.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 8:50 pm
Re Griff @6:18. ” This is a point worth considering. How does one define a “mainstream party” in a participatory democracy? Based on the proportion of the vote? The potential to forming government? Being in a position to influence public policy e.g. balance of power?”
It’s one of those things that is hard to define but you know it when you see it.
So Labor, Liberal, National, State- and Territory-based mergers of Liberal and National plus the Greens. Between them they account for about 80% of the vote.
Anyone else? One Nation? They win seats in the Senate and get up to 8% of the vote, but they’re not quite respectable and way too flakey. The Liberals and Nationals have pinched much of their natural turf and forced them further to the fringes and flakiness. The Palmists? Not a real party, just a right-wing billionaire’s preference-harvesting operation. What about the Lambists? They got up to 9% of the vote in Tasmania, so locally mainstream? While I wouldn’t class them as ratbags, they have a turbulent history. Not quite mainstream. You’ve got various fringe groups on the right and left, even centre, plus single issue groups. They get maybe 1% of the vote, normally less. Definitely not mainstream.
_________
I think it is tough to define. A distinction between the Greens and One Nation is that the latter haven’t entered into government coalitions. That would be the threshold for me. The Greens are there or thereabouts. It is causing them a degree of existential angst 🙂
How does one define a “mainstream party”
———–
“Pretty subjective term really, hard to draw a line where a party becomes mainstream”
mj, not really all that subjective and pretty easy to draw a line. I don’t know about the conservatives, but regarding Labor, once they’ve decided they stand for nothing, have no real values that they are willing to fight for, won’t rock the status quo, and dream of their legacy to be remembered for ‘good governance’ – then they’ve achieved ‘mainstream’
As a descendent of the original Farmer Giles I, too, would welcome the chance to address the royal ring.
Griff @ #1713 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 7:48 pm
Which makes that “party of one” a mainstream party.
Swing to the Liberal Party now 0%.
Eleven per center party.
Indies combined are an eleven per center party. That includes some very, very right wing Indies.
A question without notice. Whatever happened to Entropy? He used to be here all the time.
One good outcome is that Kikkert has finally been kicked out.
‘Rewi says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 9:09 pm
As a descendent of the original Farmer Giles I, too, would welcome the chance to address the royal ring.’
================
haha.
What is a major party? You are at risk of circular logic here in defining a mainstream party.
———
I don’t think it’s circular logic. If 30% of voters vote for neo nazis they are a major party but it doesn’t mean the other 70% are open to it.
Oh it’s all very fashionable to mock the monarchy these days. Not so a hundred years ago when they would have been beaten around the head by all and sundry.
I don’t mind Charles, he was made fun of for years but some of the ideas he championed have been quite prescient. His contribution to urbanism for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poundbury
And he was mocked for talking to plants but that’s all the rage now.
Bystander @ #1735 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 9:14 pm
That’s what I’ve been wondering too.
dave @ #1739 Saturday, October 19th, 2024 – 9:18 pm
I’d be interested in your opinion of his, ‘I wish I was your tampon’ comment to Camilla. Honestly, as I believe you would have a unique perspective on it.
C@tmommasays:
I’d be interested in your opinion of his, ‘I wish I was your tampon’ comment to Camilla. Honestly, as I believe you would have a unique perspective on it.
_________________
It was a terrible invasion of privacy into a private conversation between lovers.
Imagine if intimate things you had said to a sexual partner had been recorded and broadcast around the world. Poor guy.
mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 9:18 pm
What is a major party? You are at risk of circular logic here in defining a mainstream party.
———
I don’t think it’s circular logic. If 30% of voters vote for neo nazis they are a major party but it doesn’t mean the other 70% are open to it.
__________
Fair cop. I see major and mainstream as synonymous. Your criterion that a mainstream party is a major party that other voters are “open to it” and/or “cast aside by most other parties as being too extreme to closely work with is nuanced and certainly more stringent. Under your definition The Greens are not mainstream. I suppose they are referred to in the collective cross bench.
Griff people like you you are looking for ways to paint parties like The Greens as extremists. We will see how successful this strategy is.
“Having worked in Beijing for a short period my impression is that most of the Chinese in the capital are happy enough with their existence and would not consider leaving. They are proud of the achievements of the country and appreciate the rise from poverty. Political rights are important but prosperity covers a lot of the deficiencies in the government system.”
Oakeshott Country, I have had reason to visit a number of different cities in China on a number of occasions over a number of years, and this is also my impression.
I suspect the resident sinophobe here has never actually spent enough time in China to actually get to know the Chinese people, or garner their opinion of their government.
mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Griff people like you you are looking for ways to paint parties like The Greens as extremists. We will see how successful this strategy is.
______
You did with your argument, not me 🙂
Griff I think you sympathise with the greens to some extent but also want them to go away because you benefit from things the way they are. From your perspective Go Labor!
mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 10:04 pm
Griff I think you sympathise with the greens to some extent but also want them to go away because you benefit from things the way they are. From your perspective Go Labor!
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I certainly empathise with many Greens voters. The party not so much. They are mainstream now in my mind, with all that entails 😉
The Greens are far from perfect but there is no other party atm addressing how screwed people are and nothing is happening atm to seriously address these concerns. How much longer can we sustain this?
Eddy
This needs context. BW has told us he was an old grouper and it was the cold war assertion that NO ONE ever chose to live under a Communist government.
Hence there are 1.4 Billion people waiting to be liberated by the Kuomintang and if, as seems increasingly likely, this can’t be achieved then they will all try to escape to the west as refugees.
Meanwhile in the Chinese cities a society which looks remarkably capitalist continues to develop.
mj says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 10:21 pm
Now you say they’re mainstream lol
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I did at 8:57 pm 🙂
Edit: it looks like the posts are changing. I shall call it a night and see what remains in the morning.